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Suspension of Disbelief.

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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by ti3x   » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:20 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:As I remember the story, that was Jim Baen's reaction when David made the proposal: "Hornblower in Spaaaaaaace!" He accepted on the spot.


I may be only an Ensign on these forums, but I'm a long-in-the-tooth-Ensign. Was there on the bar in the nineties, not so long after it opened, and had my own attempts at adding wackyness to the Honorverse (I was one of the first to suggest a ** *******). So, yeah, I know about the story of "Hornblower in Spaaaaaaaace!"

(I am not going to derail the thread by stating what I suggested, but it had nothing to do with lances of any sort)
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Tenshinai   » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:58 pm

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ti3x wrote:First, it's my firm belief that prolong, or rather longevity and gene therapy, will be a prerequisite for longer-term space exploration. We will be living with a very high potential of 120 years of full life before or about the same time that the first humans will set foot on Mars. Definitely before the first humans actually colonize Mars.


On the second part of that, there´s already speculation ongoing that if it wasn´t for all the pollution and nasty chemicals and stuff we spread around so carelessly, we would already have, anything from a 100, up to as much as 150 years life expectancy, depending on who you ask.

On your first part though, why ever would we -require- both longevity and genetherapy to achieve space exploration?

Do you realise that there´s already people volunteering for oneway trips with uncertain ability to survive, to Mars?

The issues overcome by longevity or genetherapy might be nice additions, but their absence are not going to stop most people from going.

ti3x wrote:Second, advanced gene therapy and manipulation is a prerequisite for long-term space habitation. I'd go so far as to say that we need to become something that is far more suitable to survive in space with the minimal amount of infrastructure.


Same as above, it might be easier and more convenient, but it wont be what´s stopping most people.

ti3x wrote:That means being resistant to gamma radiation, being able to survive for at least 10 minutes in space without a spacesuit without our blood boiling off, and so on.


Completely unrealistic requests i´m afraid. And essentially, if you ever end up in need of abilities like that, matters have already gone so badly that they probably wont matter anyway.

ti3x wrote:On Earth we have always had the luxury to adapt our technology to help us survive in our environment, but space is far less forgiving, and will be more like the deep sea or the South Pole when it comes to our inability to habituate in it.


Yes, and you do know that people spend lots of time at both poles, and there´s also some planning for deep sea longterm exploration "bases", although the latter might never happen because sending down specialist subs still work, even though they are highly limited in what can be done from/with them.

ti3x wrote:Third, it's unlikely most of our cultures would survive the transition. Our cultures are based on the way things work on Earth. If you think cellphones, smartphones and the internet have had a pretty big impact on the way we interact and where our cultures are going, it's nothing compared to what space culture would be like. We'd be aliens to our current selves.


That´s nothing truly new really. Modern day people would be very alien to their ancestors just a few hundred years ago as well.

But i think you overestimate how drastic cultural changes might be.

ti3x wrote:You may now return to your pointless squabbling.


Nah, i´m bored so i´m gonna stop feeding the animals now.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Imaginos1892   » Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:45 pm

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hanuman wrote:There is a tendency in, especially, the contemporary Western world to distinguish between religion and (Western) science as if the two are diametrically opposed to each other. This isn't true, of course. Both science and religion are simply two of many ways to understand the world around us,but they emphasize different aspects of that world, and they do so in different ways. That does not mean that the twain will never meet; in fact, I feel that the two, along with other ways of understanding the world, can and do offer a more comprehensive understanding than each by itself.

This means that I can readily imagine a powerful role for religions even in such a scientifically and technologically-advanced society as the Honor verse. Or two thousand years from now OTL, for that matter.

Religion is pretty much the opposite of science. Science is constantly tested against facts to determine what is true. The only fact about religion is that there are no facts. There is nothing to test it against. You can make up all sorts of crazy bullshit and there is no way to tell whether any of it is true or not. And before you start quoting from your favorite Holy Book, crazy bullshit that was made up a long time ago and is believed (without evidence) by a lot of people is still crazy bullshit. It could all be true -- but there is NO WAY TO KNOW.
------------------------
Ma Lemming: If all your friends jumped off a cliff
into the sea, would you....oh....um....nevermind.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by hanuman   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:50 am

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Imaginos1892 wrote:
hanuman wrote:There is a tendency in, especially, the contemporary Western world to distinguish between religion and (Western) science as if the two are diametrically opposed to each other. This isn't true, of course. Both science and religion are simply two of many ways to understand the world around us,but they emphasize different aspects of that world, and they do so in different ways. That does not mean that the twain will never meet; in fact, I feel that the two, along with other ways of understanding the world, can and do offer a more comprehensive understanding than each by itself.

This means that I can readily imagine a powerful role for religions even in such a scientifically and technologically-advanced society as the Honor verse. Or two thousand years from now OTL, for that matter.

Religion is pretty much the opposite of science. Science is constantly tested against facts to determine what is true. The only fact about religion is that there are no facts. There is nothing to test it against. You can make up all sorts of crazy bullshit and there is no way to tell whether any of it is true or not. And before you start quoting from your favorite Holy Book, crazy bullshit that was made up a long time ago and is believed (without evidence) by a lot of people is still crazy bullshit. It could all be true -- but there is NO WAY TO KNOW.
------------------------
Ma Lemming: If all your friends jumped off a cliff
into the sea, would you....oh....um....nevermind.


And yet both Western science and religion serve vital functions when it comes to understanding our existence and the world we exist in. Or are you denying that humans have a spiritual, psychological and emotional nature alongside the physical? Philosophy, morality, ethics and law are all important aspects of the human reality, and whether you like it or not, much of those are derived from religious thought and speculation.

That is why I said that science and religion represent just two of several mutually supportive ways of understanding our world. Neither can answer all the questions, but both are capable of seeking answers to the questions that pertain to their own area of inquiry.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by ti3x   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:15 am

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Tenshinai wrote:
ti3x wrote:First, it's my firm belief that prolong, or rather longevity and gene therapy, will be a prerequisite for longer-term space exploration. We will be living with a very high potential of 120 years of full life before or about the same time that the first humans will set foot on Mars. Definitely before the first humans actually colonize Mars.


On the second part of that, there´s already speculation ongoing that if it wasn´t for all the pollution and nasty chemicals and stuff we spread around so carelessly, we would already have, anything from a 100, up to as much as 150 years life expectancy, depending on who you ask.


Sounds somewhat conspiracy-theorish, particularly since all the sources I have ever heard of say that our brains have a projected maximum operating capacity of around 120 years, although that may indeed be wrong. Anything beyond that will be about messing around with neurons, either making them more flexible, changing them completely, or doing something in between.

Tenshinai wrote:On your first part though, why ever would we -require- both longevity and genetherapy to achieve space exploration?


Longevity may be achieved via genetherapy, but it has specific requirements. Genetherapy OTOH has specific capbalilities that would be used to counteract the various problems associated with long-term space travel. The human body is not, at this time, optimized for space.

Tenshinai wrote:Do you realise that there´s already people volunteering for oneway trips with uncertain ability to survive, to Mars?

The issues overcome by longevity or genetherapy might be nice additions, but their absence are not going to stop most people from going.


But they'll stop people from staying. Or more specifically, they'll stop them from thriving. We cannot make each and every space environment safe for us, and eventually the odds will be stacked against us. When you have explorers out there, where they can't even survive without a great deal of infrastructure when they make landfall at their destination, you have a problem.

Tenshinai wrote:
ti3x wrote:Second, advanced gene therapy and manipulation is a prerequisite for long-term space habitation. I'd go so far as to say that we need to become something that is far more suitable to survive in space with the minimal amount of infrastructure.


Same as above, it might be easier and more convenient, but it wont be what´s stopping most people.


Same as above. It's the difference between barely surviving and thriving.

Tenshinai wrote:
ti3x wrote:That means being resistant to gamma radiation, being able to survive for at least 10 minutes in space without a spacesuit without our blood boiling off, and so on.


Completely unrealistic requests i´m afraid. And essentially, if you ever end up in need of abilities like that, matters have already gone so badly that they probably wont matter anyway.


You want to have kids in space? You pretty much will need some ability to have this. Environments fail and people make mistakes. A saying I expect in this environment is something along the lines of: Remember kids, sometimes airlocks...don't.

And it's hardly unrealistic at all. To survive in vacuum for 10 minutes you need two things: 1) the ability to keep your blood under pressure and your lungs from collapsing (thereby crushing your chest cavity), 2) the ability to keep your brain oxygenated. Bonus if you can keep from losing your eyes. Your body may lose the external biome on your skin, which is no good but survivable with medical care, but with some engineering, even that might be made rugged enough to survive the ordeal.

With gamma radiation it's way trickier. You have to figure out how to either keep your genes and biological molecules from being scrambled, or catch when they are scrambled and fix that immediately or almost immediately. Although the body can do some repairs as is, it's hardly able to repair extensive damage, particularly since extensive damage means the person is dying. So, I expect the goal will be more a matter of prevention followed by intense repair, although this may not be achievable.

Tenshinai wrote:
ti3x wrote:On Earth we have always had the luxury to adapt our technology to help us survive in our environment, but space is far less forgiving, and will be more like the deep sea or the South Pole when it comes to our inability to habituate in it.


Yes, and you do know that people spend lots of time at both poles, and there´s also some planning for deep sea longterm exploration "bases", although the latter might never happen because sending down specialist subs still work, even though they are highly limited in what can be done from/with them.


And how are they thriving? Starting families? They are sent there, at pretty great expense, but they don't live there. The only way space will be anything but a destination for the bravest and most adventuresome, will be if it's able to support more than the occasional one-in-ten-million astronaut.

Tenshinai wrote:
ti3x wrote:Third, it's unlikely most of our cultures would survive the transition. Our cultures are based on the way things work on Earth. If you think cellphones, smartphones and the internet have had a pretty big impact on the way we interact and where our cultures are going, it's nothing compared to what space culture would be like. We'd be aliens to our current selves.


That´s nothing truly new really. Modern day people would be very alien to their ancestors just a few hundred years ago as well.

But i think you overestimate how drastic cultural changes might be.


So glad one of us has the imagination to encompass 200 years of cultural development when technologies we have barely grasped will be commonplace.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by GabrialSagan   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:09 am

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For me, the biggest suspension of disbelief was Honor's relationship with Hamish Alexander. Their entire relationship always seemed a little forced.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Relax   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:34 pm

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ti3x wrote:So glad one of us has the imagination to encompass 200 years of cultural development when technologies we have barely grasped will be commonplace.


There is nothing new under the sun. Some trivial tech junk is added, but nothing changes. Everyone whines about the same old things depending on age. Children claim their parents do not understand. These children start to grow up and mature and eventually become parents of children claiming their parents do not understand. Eventually they turn into curmudgeons saying younger generation are stupid and selfish. Culture is cratering...

Technology is irrelevant. Nothing but idioms and tools.

How humans behave does not change. Just short sighted folks refusing to look throughout history who all think they and their generation are the center of the universe.
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Tenshinai   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:47 pm

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ti3x wrote:Sounds somewhat conspiracy-theorish, particularly since all the sources I have ever heard of say that our brains have a projected maximum operating capacity of around 120 years, although that may indeed be wrong. Anything beyond that will be about messing around with neurons, either making them more flexible, changing them completely, or doing something in between.


That estimation however includes damage taken from chemicals already common by the time it was made.

For example, just completely removing refined sugar from your food has been estimated to increase that limit by 10-30 years.

Getting rid of the 5 most common artificial substances commmonly used that are made by using mould or fungii have been theorised to potentially have similar effects.

One example is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citric_acid
In 1917, American food chemist James Currie discovered certain strains of the mold Aspergillus niger could be efficient citric acid producers, and the pharmaceutical company Pfizer began industrial-level production using this technique two years later, followed by Citrique Belge in 1929.

Exactly how it works isn´t known, but research has found that naturally ocurring citric acid and artifically produced causes different reactions on cells.
Whether that is because there are traces of the poison that black mould can generate, or the bensen that is used to "clean" the acid, is unknown.

But healthy it is definitely not.


Oh, and BTW, that 120 year statement, i do believe that actually hails back from the time when "everyone knows" that new braincells were not created after becoming adult(which is totally wrong).

And research into aging in the last decades have shown that it is completely realistic to retain physical and mental ability of middle age, beyond 80 years of age.

It has also been found that depending on lifestyle, health and genes, people´s "internal age" can vary drastically from their age in years. +-30 years. And since people can already become a good bit over 100, that means it´s already well within the realm of possibility to become over 130.

ti3x wrote:Longevity may be achieved via genetherapy, but it has specific requirements. Genetherapy OTOH has specific capbalilities that would be used to counteract the various problems associated with long-term space travel. The human body is not, at this time, optimized for space.


No it isn´t. But genetherapy is an extremely tricky business, to the point where even when it can be done today, it´s usually better to not risk it.

Also, something you always have to remember about genetics is that there is very rarely a set of "perfect genes".
For example, several genes that are thought to commonly result in high IQ, at the same time often cause healthproblems.
And there´s a gene sequence common in the Nordic nations(and someplace else i forgot) that is slightly bad for the immune system overall, but which grants a small degree of resistance or immunity against some specific types of diseases, like HIV.

And on and on, yes you can in theory take a person´s genetics, store it and then "restore it" after spaceflight induced degredations may happen...

I´ll say it´s a MUCH better idea to come up with radiation shielding that works. We´re already at the point where we CAN make EM shields, so why not?

ti3x wrote:But they'll stop people from staying. Or more specifically, they'll stop them from thriving.


On Mars? Why? Humans as we are today could probably manage fairly well on Mars and Venus as long as the obvious environmental requirements can be handled.

And seriously, we can´t "thrive" on Mars without massive terraforming anyway, and if we manage that, then most of the reasons for genetherapy are already gone.

ti3x wrote:We cannot make each and every space environment safe for us, and eventually the odds will be stacked against us. When you have explorers out there, where they can't even survive without a great deal of infrastructure when they make landfall at their destination, you have a problem.


No, you have a challenge. A challenge that lots of people already today would be completely willing to take on.

If someone, tomorrow, offered a chance to try to settle Mars, with current tech, i know my best friend would be having a very hard time to decide to take the offer or not.

Money is the limiter, the tech we have is already capable of starting limited settlements in space.

ti3x wrote:Same as above. It's the difference between barely surviving and thriving.


No. If we could get cheap earth to HEO lift capacity(and preferably equally cheap "longburn" propulsion), that would instantly allow massive space activity, while even the most superbly perfected genetherapy would probably not even make a noticeable difference.

ti3x wrote:You want to have kids in space? You pretty much will need some ability to have this. Environments fail and people make mistakes. A saying I expect in this environment is something along the lines of: Remember kids, sometimes airlocks...don't.


Designing nearperfect failsafes is quite possible, just costly and less convenient.
If you make it possible to only make critical mistakes by repeatedly taking active actions of a nonstandard sort, then it becomes exceptionally difficult to make those mistakes at all.

A good example is how my brother has by now maintained a computer backbone(for between 5 and 30 thousand users depending on what year) up and running 24/7 without even a single second of downtime, for over 20 years. Because when he took over responsibility, from the beginning he started converting all standards and connections and servers to a setup that would be almost impossible to mess up for anyone, even the techies doing regular maintenance.
And he was given the job exactly because he was set on getting it working with 100% reliability, something others claimed was not possible. 20 years later, the system has never been below 50% capacity.

99% of the systems and >75%(in theory 100%, as it then tries to switch to mobile connections, but those are slow in comparison) of the connecting lines can be physically destroyed without killing the system, it will just be slowed down a little bit ( not much, because local computing power is automatically used more if the servers or fiberoptics are too stressed ).

That´s the kind of design you need both for physical environment as well as the support structure and systems.

It´s not a matter of CAN do, it´s a matter of WILL THEY DO IT?

ti3x wrote:And it's hardly unrealistic at all.


10 minutes in open space, yes it is unrealistic. Not because it is impossible to do.
But because of the biological pricetag.

What is needed to be able to withstand vacuum?
You´re going to need a body whose skin does not loose heat or moisture for example.

Which results in a person who will die from heatstroke within hours in a normal environment.

Similarly with protection/recovery from radiation(just focusing on gamma isn´t very useful), a body able to repair ALL such damage will require far more energy in total, because it will require a greater and constant activity.
An activity which btw ALSO can end up failing and cause additional diseases.

While protecting against radiation damage, well then you need such extreme amounts of mass that you´re asking for bioblobs rolling around instead of humans.

ti3x wrote:And how are they thriving? Starting families? They are sent there, at pretty great expense, but they don't live there.


For a lot of people, that´s not because they COULDN`T, but because surrounding circumstances do not ALLOW them.

ti3x wrote:The only way space will be anything but a destination for the bravest and most adventuresome, will be if it's able to support more than the occasional one-in-ten-million astronaut.


And that will happen the instant we get cheaper transport to/from as well as in space.

While it still costs thousands of $ per kg into LOW earth orbit, it´s never going to be a place for lots of people to go to, much less to stay.

ti3x wrote:So glad one of us has the imagination to encompass 200 years of cultural development when technologies we have barely grasped will be commonplace.


Take a look at predictions of the future from 100, 200 or 300 years back.

It´s a mix of spot on, "hmm?" and completely nuts. The interesting thing being that even with things completely nonexistant at the time, they could still hit spot on sometimes.

You have an imagination, use it.

And culture, well with history being one of my primary interests, one thing i have found to be a perfect truth is that no matter when in history, people are still people.

How people are, do and interact doesn´t change, only the means and tools.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Bill Woods   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:26 pm

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Tenshinai wrote: On the second part of that, there´s already speculation ongoing that if it wasn´t for all the pollution and nasty chemicals and stuff we spread around so carelessly, we would already have, anything from a 100, up to as much as 150 years life expectancy, depending on who you ask.
The countries with longest exposure to chemicals and stuff seem to have done pretty well.
http://www.maxroser.com/everyone-is-bet ... increased/
----
Imagined conversation:
Admiral [noting yet another Manty tech surprise]:
XO, what's the budget for the ONI?
Vice Admiral: I don't recall exactly, sir. Several billion quatloos.
Admiral: ... What do you suppose they did with all that money?
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by JohnRoth   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:15 pm

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Bill Woods wrote:
Tenshinai wrote: On the second part of that, there´s already speculation ongoing that if it wasn´t for all the pollution and nasty chemicals and stuff we spread around so carelessly, we would already have, anything from a 100, up to as much as 150 years life expectancy, depending on who you ask.
The countries with longest exposure to chemicals and stuff seem to have done pretty well.
http://www.maxroser.com/everyone-is-bet ... increased/


I'd like to see what Kaiser Fung at Junk Charts (http://junkcharts.typepad.com/ ) makes of that chart. Even so, it's shooting fish in a barrel: the majority of the increase in life expectancy is due to the reduction of infant mortality, which in turn is due to public health measures, immunization and antibiotics. Everything else is of marginal importance.
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