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Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Louis R   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:14 pm

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In that connection, I just thought of another possible item on Merlin's agenda: a list of the known agents inquisitor in positions where they could observe and/or interfere with any plotting that Thirsk and potential allies might get up to. Knowing which specific direction you need to watch over your shoulder is invaluable, and this being Gorath, not Zion, the Demonic Intelligence Service has probably been able to nail down everyone Thirsk would need to be concerned about by working down from the top. Provided he doesn't make the mistake of assuming that he knows who every single one of them is, reasonable precautions will suffice to lay the groundwork for a lot of nasty options.

n7axw wrote:You are raising a good question here, Louis R. Whatever someone like Rayno or Clyntahn might believe, there is no way for anyone to know that the situation is anything other than what it seems: that the NOG ship transporting Thirsk's family suffered a catastrophic explosion and went down with all hands.


It will be interesting to see what Clyntahn must suspect beyond the surface event...if anything. I believe he will have his suspicions and will be looking to confirm them. How successful he will be is another question.

Don
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:31 pm

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Louis R wrote:In that connection, I just thought of another possible item on Merlin's agenda: a list of the known agents inquisitor in positions where they could observe and/or interfere with any plotting that Thirsk and potential allies might get up to. Knowing which specific direction you need to watch over your shoulder is invaluable, and this being Gorath, not Zion, the Demonic Intelligence Service has probably been able to nail down everyone Thirsk would need to be concerned about by working down from the top. Provided he doesn't make the mistake of assuming that he knows who every single one of them is, reasonable precautions will suffice to lay the groundwork for a lot of nasty options.

That's at least a critical example of what seijins can do for Thirsk and Dohlar, yes. But there's a big question about how much Thirsk can handle without joining Rayno and accepting that the Temple's enemies really DO have demonic assistance. (Clearly supernatural if it's that effective, and somehow, delivering a God's Eye Counter-Intelligence Brief doesn't seem angelic, even if I have to phrase it that way.)
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:35 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
Louis R wrote:In that connection, I just thought of another possible item on Merlin's agenda: a list of the known agents inquisitor in positions where they could observe and/or interfere with any plotting that Thirsk and potential allies might get up to. Knowing which specific direction you need to watch over your shoulder is invaluable, and this being Gorath, not Zion, the Demonic Intelligence Service has probably been able to nail down everyone Thirsk would need to be concerned about by working down from the top. Provided he doesn't make the mistake of assuming that he knows who every single one of them is, reasonable precautions will suffice to lay the groundwork for a lot of nasty options.

That's at least a critical example of what seijins can do for Thirsk and Dohlar, yes. But there's a big question about how much Thirsk can handle without joining Rayno and accepting that the Temple's enemies really DO have demonic assistance. (Clearly supernatural if it's that effective, and somehow, delivering a God's Eye Counter-Intelligence Brief doesn't seem angelic, even if I have to phrase it that way.)


That might depend on whose side you think God is on, don't you think?

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by CJK   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:09 am

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I believe Merlin and Narhmarhn could hand over information that would not require the seijin visions explanation. After all what they would be doing is filling in the specifics of what Thirsk already knows. Certainly Siddarmark has not been making waves in this regard for very similar reasons. When your staring death (or worse) in the face you really do have better things to do than worry over how your allied spies operate.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:11 am

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n7axw wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:That's at least a critical example of what seijins can do for Thirsk and Dohlar, yes. But there's a big question about how much Thirsk can handle without joining Rayno and accepting that the Temple's enemies really DO have demonic assistance. (Clearly supernatural if it's that effective, and somehow, delivering a God's Eye Counter-Intelligence Brief doesn't seem angelic, even if I have to phrase it that way.)


That might depend on whose side you think God is on, don't you think?

Don

This is admittedly subjective, but something about freakishly, impossibly detailed reports on people as though you had invisible, relentless spies capable of going anywhere following every one of them all the time... just doesn't feel angelic. (At best, it may smack of Santa Claus.)

If you don't share that sense, then no, simply being supernaturally effective that way is a wash between the demonic and angelic alternatives.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:52 pm

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XofDallas wrote:I'm still putting the spoiler tag on this until HFQ's been out for a month.

So, Merlin and Thirsk need to talk. I've wondered, what about? Here is my speculation:

1. Merlin will let Thirsk know his family is alive and in Charisan hands, and that nothing bad will happen to them no matter what Thirsk does. I am sure Thirsk will believe him.

2. Merlin and Thirsk will also discuss the high probability that Thirsk will be the subject of an assassination attempt shortly, since Clyntahn no longer has a hold over him, and doesn't trust him.

I believe they will also discuss that Clyntahn (or Rayno, same thing) will try to arrange Thirsk's death in such a manner that blame will be cast on Charis - setting Thirsk up as a martyr to motivate Temple loyalists and those sitting on the fence - and also providing motivation for the Dohlaran navy.

3. It's possible - possible - Merlin may make some nano-healing available to Thirsk without telling him so.

4. Merlin also will somehow manage to help Thirsk see himself objectively, and to realize that, by compromising his honor, he's become only a shell of the man he once was. Merlin likely will not suggest that Thirsk should or could redeem himself and his honor, let alone suggest to Thirsk how he might do that.

5. Thirsk's actions from that point? There are some possibilities:

a. Make a public speech denouncing Clyntahn and the Inquisition, and exposing the Inquisition's practice of making hostages of the families of important people to insure their obedience and cooperation, before offing himself;

b. Somehow encourage his better officers to - who knows what? Rebel? Mutiny? Turn their ships over to Charis?

c. Arrange for the destruction of the Dreadnought;

d. Who knows what else?

The only thing I know is, that Thirsk is going to realize he is no longer controlled by the Church, that the Church will likely try to target him and use his death for its own purposes, and that he has a meaningful chance at doing something so he no longer will loathe himself.

The possibilities - seemingly endless.

There are likely but three possibilities for Thirsk's reaction to the news his family is safe. He can defect; he can remain sworn to king and Church, or he can call for the guard to grab Merlin (very unlikely!) His disappearance can be arranged easily; Unexplained vanishing; "suicide by drowning", or capture by Charis forces. Thirsk's stated reaction to the Church claim that Iris and Daiven were "kidnapped" prisoners was disbelief; his respect for Cayleb's word is also given.
Of the three, defecting to Charis is the more likely.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by StealthSeeker   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:30 am

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I want to turn things on their head a bit here. Everyone, including myself, has been assuming that Merlin will start the conversation with Thirsk by telling him that his family is alive. What if he doesn't? Once Thirsk knows that his family is alive there is no way that they can't be considered as some kind of leverage to convince Thirsk to do something.

So how about Merlin starts the conversation simply pointing out all the things Thirsk hates about the Go4 and everything they are doing? Then proceeds to talk with Thirsk about all the things that Charis may be able to do to help him do something about the situation he finds himself in. That could be a LONG conversation of possibilities. One thing that everybody knows is that Charis is going to attack the RDN so Merlin may begin sort of a conversation about how Thirsk could limit the casualties to the RDN when that happens?

Then at the end of the conversation, once they are past any possibility in the conversation of where Thirsk's family could be used as a lever against him, that is when Merlin tells him that his family is alive and safe on Claw Island?

Would that change things in the context of what could be expected out of Thirsk? Would Thirsk feel he had been manipulated less?

Just a thought.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by CJK   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:59 am

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Given Thirsk's mental state its possible that it would require him to know his family is still alive to care enough to discuss the jihad. Also given the track record of Charis is pretty good, princess Irys is a good example; Thirsk will likely see they are safer in Charis than in CoGA controlled states.

Then there is the small fact that Thirsk's' options are either fight the CoGA or die, probably taking a lot of his Navy with him. Charis doesn't need a hold on Thirsk as Clyntahn's hatred and paranoia force Thirk's hand anyways.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JustCurious   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:56 am

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The first thing that Merlin will tell Thirsk is that his family is alive and not being used to influence him. He will probably bring supporting evidence, letters from his daughters and possessions perhaps. I think Thirsk will have little difficulty believing Merlin since he has reason to believe it is within his capabilities and in character.
Thirst will stay out of loyalty to his men, especially those threatened by Clyntain, and out of loyalty to King and Country.
Charis wishes Dohlar to leave the war and Thirsk could help bring this about. It is thus in Charis' interest to see Thirsk stay.
Also when the City class and later the King Haralds arrive Thirsk would have a good enough feeling for the odds to try to keep his forces out of action avoiding a bloodbath. He knows of the Cities and realizes that his forces would loose against them. He does not know of the King Haralds yet.
Merlin might let him know that Charis is building ships that Dohlar has no chance of resisting. He would not go into details but he might drive home the fact that Dohlarian navy will soon be far more outclassed than it ever has been.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Thyrann   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 8:59 am

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Reading the last page of HFQ (curse you David for that cliffhanger), I am thinking that except preventing Thrisk to drink himself to death, there is not much of direction, which this conversation will go. So my Point of view:
1) Merlin informs Thrisk that his family is okay (convincing Thrisk is up to our favourite author, i am sure he will figure out some machiavellian scheme).
2) Merlin will offer Thrisk emmigration, but he declines. Thrisk is above all loyal to his king.
3) On the other hand Clyntahn wont let him live for long. So maybe Merlin will offer him help to arrange "escape plan". That has big catch in form of Thrisks subordinates. Thrisk is loyal to them, so he will want to stay or help them too. Which leads me...

to my conclusion:
With his family safe Thrisk will probably start to work in accord with his hatred against Go4. My bet is on creating a way Dohlar can leave Jihad. Probably with lots of dead inquisitors on the way. Maybe Merlin will offer help with "seijin network" providing intel.

Problem is that Dohlars population is much more Temple Loyalist minded, so even declaring neutrality will be much harder. We will see in next book.
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