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Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:53 pm

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You are raising a good question here, Louis R. Whatever someone like Rayno or Clyntahn might believe, there is no way for anyone to know that the situation is anything other than what it seems: that the NOG ship transporting Thirsk's family suffered a catastrophic explosion and went down with all hands.


It will be interesting to see what Clyntahn must suspect beyond the surface event...if anything. I believe he will have his suspicions and will be looking to confirm them. How successful he will be is another question.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by jeremyr   » Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:16 pm

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Don't forget that in all the last books we've seen where Thirsk has some "accounting" to make up for his turning over the EOC navy prisoners to the Church. I don't think Thirsk will be offered a free trip to his family. He's going to have to work for the Empire somehow. I don't think he'll be asked to compromise his integrity either, so it'll probably be to try to get Dohlar out of the jihad.
Hopefully we'll get some snipets next year and know.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Expert snuggler   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:46 am

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The entire Inner Circle knows that Thirsk had no choice that didn't involve joining them.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:42 am

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Expert snuggler wrote:The entire Inner Circle knows that Thirsk had no choice that didn't involve joining them.

They do, but the rest of the ICN particularly doesn't know that to be forgiving. Cooperation with Charis would be one big step toward reconciliation that people without SNARC's may need to settle accounts with Thirsk, Rahnahld, and Dohlar generally, along with recognition and contrition.

It's not precisely fair, maybe, but when normal human reactions offer a choice between having to offer more help than is fair to compensate for injustices performed under constrained circumstances or bloody vengeance likely to start a cycle of revenge... fairness can take a back seat to humanity, thanks.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by wyrm   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:13 am

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XofDallas wrote:5. Thirsk's actions from that point? There are some possibilities:

e. Thirsk and his family (with Merlin's assistance) go into exile in a neutral land - Ravens Land

Ravens Land appears to be in effect a neutral (possibly the only neutral) - safeguarded by the ocean from the AoG forces, but maintaining a studied neutrality from Charis.

If Thirsk, as I read him, refuses to act against his monarch, but feels he cannot support Clyntahn's church, then exile, in a neutral state, is a possible solution.

I know many on the forum would argue that Merlin should demand more for his assistance. However, I believe that I suspect that by publicising Thirsk's exile, and establishing the idea of a principled exile, Merlin could create an 'exit route' for many of the Jihad officers who are having doubts about the Go4. Loss of numbers of the less-fanatical (more rational) officers across the Jihad armies would do more damage than gain of a single officer to the Empire's naval forces.

Even better, if officers start to desert, would be the reaction of the grunts - if the officers are deserting why should we stay? I'm off!
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Ramhawkfan   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:58 am

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wyrm wrote:e. Thirsk and his family (with Merlin's assistance) go into exile in a neutral land - Ravens Land

Ravens Land appears to be in effect a neutral (possibly the only neutral) - safeguarded by the ocean from the AoG forces, but maintaining a studied neutrality from Charis.

If Thirsk, as I read him, refuses to act against his monarch, but feels he cannot support Clyntahn's church, then exile, in a neutral state, is a possible solution.

I know many on the forum would argue that Merlin should demand more for his assistance. However, I believe that I suspect that by publicising Thirsk's exile, and establishing the idea of a principled exile, Merlin could create an 'exit route' for many of the Jihad officers who are having doubts about the Go4. Loss of numbers of the less-fanatical (more rational) officers across the Jihad armies would do more damage than gain of a single officer to the Empire's naval forces.

Even better, if officers start to desert, would be the reaction of the grunts - if the officers are deserting why should we stay? I'm off!


One quick point. We've already seen from textev that there are large numbers of desertions going on all the time, and is only getting worse as the Church's armies lose more battles.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by CJK   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:17 am

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@ wyrm, I find it very unlikely that Thirsk will leave, as the inquisition is holding his men from the prisoner convoy. Abandoning them to the "investigation" of the inquisition Thirsk would see as a betrayal of his duty. Besides as valuable as the desertion of one general is to Charis the desertion of the CoGA most effective secular ally is vastly superior.

Granted it is expected that Dohlar will be knocked out of the jihad very soon regardless but the difference between using force and active desertion on the part of Dohlar matters for the long term goals of Merlin. Force means that people can pretend to still support the CoGA, resulting in a Charis or Siddarmark having to sit on Dohlar given its position relative to the battle front. Dohlar defecting saves manpower in garrisoning or border patrols, is another blow the the authority of the CoGA and Dohlar is now invested in breaking CoGA power (also in killing Clyntahn).
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Tonto Silerheels   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:16 pm

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I'll make my predictions (he said, foolishly.)

c) Merlin will inform Thirsk that his relatives are safe.

III. Merlin will offer no proof other than his word.

4.4.3.0 Thirsk will accept the safety of his relatives as fact.

D. Thirsk will be willing to emigrate to Charis.

1) How Thirsk could emigrate will become a problem.

vii. Thirsk will "snap out of his alcoholic retreat."

34] Thirsk will exhibit a new enthusiasm for the mission.

D. Thirsk will sail with a new task force to drive Charis off of the closest island they are occupying, whose name escapes me, with himself at the head.

D. Once in range of the enemy forces, Thirsk will order the task force to strike their colors.

D. Charis will capture the task force without firing a shot.

1. Thirsk will join the war against the CoGA, with all enthusiasm.

~Tonto
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:37 pm

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Tonto Silerheels wrote:D. Thirsk will sail with a new task force to drive Charis off of the closest island they are occupying, whose name escapes me, with himself at the head.

D. Once in range of the enemy forces, Thirsk will order the task force to strike their colors.

D. Charis will capture the task force without firing a shot.

1. Thirsk will join the war against the CoGA, with all enthusiasm.

~Tonto

I would think the ship captains, officers, crews, and priests may have a word or two about the later steps in this plan. Some handful of them may be prepared to cheer it on right off the mark, but I suspect they'd be an unpatriotic minority.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Tonto Silerheels   » Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:36 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:

I would think the ship captains, officers, crews, and priests may have a word or two about the later steps in this plan. Some handful of them may be prepared to cheer it on right off the mark, but I suspect they'd be an unpatriotic minority.

Certainly, and I'm taking a risk with that prediction just as I am with the others. However, I think Thirsk is a pretty sharp fellow, so he'll make sure that the right captains are on the right ships. The captain of the flag ship will strike, and so will a couple of others. The inquisition can no longer punish Thirsk's family, and the other captains who strike will have some coverage, plus the inquisition will have some difficulty investigating who is to blame.

So, what we have to consider is what the other captains will do.

I will have a tactical plan prior to entering battle, but that plan doesn't survive contact with the enemy. My Admiral has ordered me to strike my colors against a navy, who just incidentally achieved massive victories off Armageddon Reef, Rock Point, Darcos Sound, and, I think, The Anvil. I am massively outgunned, and a third of my task force has surrendered without firing a shot. The enemy is untouched. The armour on one of the ships facing me is proof against every weapon I have. So, the question facing me is--how many shots do I fire before striking? I believe the smart number to be zero.

~Tonto

"Not necessarily in that order."
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