[HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?

CJK wrote:IMO the cities are sufficient to defeat Dohlar, at least based on what MWW has stated on this forum about how the KH's are not required to achieve victory and the time constraints I mentioned earlier concerning the Host of God and Archangels. (HoGaA)

Head in the sand is a interesting way to put it, one I feel glosses over some very practical reasons why Thorast and Salthar are temple hard-line supporters. First being stated in book 3 is how Thorast has powerful connections according to Bishop Maik. I doubt he was referring to purely secular connections, which means they are vested in keeping the CoGA in power. Second is well Thorast HATES Thirsk, hatred makes people do stupid things and lets face it Thorast has not shown anything other than wanting to oppose Thirsk whenever possible. Then there is the small matter of ignorance, as others have mentioned I expect that until they see it for themselves how outclassed they are they cannot internalize it. Thirsk has done pretty well so far but they only get after action reports and neither are seamen. netierh have seen what has happened to CoGA forces that got creamed by Charis. Salthar in particular would not sign onto new innovations without severe pressure from Duke Fern.

Exactly. If the Cities do in the Gorath Bay what they did in Geyra and Desnair the City, I would agree that no one in Dohlar is likely to miss the implications...


Don

n7axw wrote:

CJK wrote:IMO the cities are sufficient to defeat Dohlar, at least based on what MWW has stated on this forum about how the KH's are not required to achieve victory and the time constraints I mentioned earlier concerning the Host of God and Archangels. (HoGaA) <SNIP>

Exactly. If the Cities do in the Gorath Bay what they did in Geyra and Desnair the City, I would agree that no one in Dohlar is likely to miss the implications...


Don

Clearly the Cities can defeat Thirsk's fleet and the defenses of Gorath Bay, then ravage the waterfront of Dohlar's capital city. However, revenge for turning over POWs to the Inquisition not just once but twice requires a political response.

I'm not sure where the royal palace is located, but it's much more likely that the 10" rifled guns of the KHs could shell it (or drop one 10" shell on it as a very effective demonstration) than the 6" guns of the Cities. Keep in mind, RFC stated that although there clearly aren't any enemy ships that can threaten the KHs, the military purpose of those big guns will involve "hitting targets on land." Since he also mentioned taking out harbor defenses in the same post, I believe we've been given what you might call a hint!

Having the palace splintering around him will tend to focus King Ronald's attention on Dohlar's dire military situation. The threat of the Inquisition takes a back seat when a good part of Gorath can be destroyed with impunity, including the nobility and their fancy homes. (Not that Cayleb, Sharley, and Merlin are likely to implement such a policy.) With the fleet sunk or surrendered and all shipping around Dohlar sunk or stuck in port due to the Cities and a KH or two, and Siddarmark banging on the door of their eastern border, Dohlar needs to either surrender or withdraw from the Jihad and declare neutrality, which Desnair has effectively done already, at least on land. The schooners they're building to harass ICN convoys allow them to argue that they're still fighting, but it seems that the political crisis I expected following the decimation of the AoS has ended all desires in Desnair to engage in further land attacks on Siddarmark.

A Dohlaran surrender would be politically disastrous to the existing nobility, and even worse for the CoGA, since every inquisitor would immediately be subject to the death penalty and the CoC would be allowed to set up shop. A declaration of neutrality would still gut the CoGA of its navy and the the support of the only remaining southern power that shares a border with Siddarmark. (Not that Dohlar has an army that it could hope to throw against Hanth and win, nor will it before he's heavily reinforced by new Siddarmarkan battalions.)

I expect a swift abdication, negotiations that include Thirsk, Ahlverez, Fern, and whichever members of Ronald's group of advisers who are willing to meet with the heretics and serve on the Regency Council. Thorast may lose his influence simply through cowardice in refusing to meet with the Charisians, or by continued opposition to the inevitable. He can always be put up against the wall and shot, and not necessarily by foreign forces!

I can't wait to see Clyntahn's reaction when he gets the news and realizes there's nothing he can do about it!

Reading through HFQ again, I think it's actually stated that the Cities can't actually reach Gorath from the ICN's current bases. They simply don't have the coal bunkerage for it.

Still, having invulnerable steam powered ironclads with breach loading guns wandering around in Dohlar's neighborhood (and can possibly turn Dreadnought into swiss cheese) might lend the "Let's go neutral" faction some political weight.

evilauthor wrote:Reading through HFQ again, I think it's actually stated that the Cities can't actually reach Gorath from the ICN's current bases. They simply don't have the coal bunkerage for it.

Still, having invulnerable steam powered ironclads with breach loading guns wandering around in Dohlar's neighborhood (and can possibly turn Dreadnought into swiss cheese) might lend the "Let's go neutral" faction some political weight.

No they can't. But once the ICN has the steamers on hand, bunkerage is easily arranged. All it would really take would be galleons filled with coal parked in strategic spots in the Gulf and the problem is solved.

Don

CJK wrote:IMO the cities are sufficient to defeat Dohlar, at least based on what MWW has stated on this forum about how the KH's are not required to achieve victory and the time constraints I mentioned earlier concerning the Host of God and Archangels. (HoGaA)

Head in the sand is a interesting way to put it, one I feel glosses over some very practical reasons why Thorast and Salthar are temple hard-line supporters. First being stated in book 3 is how Thorast has powerful connections according to Bishop Maik. I doubt he was referring to purely secular connections, which means they are vested in keeping the CoGA in power. Second is well Thorast HATES Thirsk, hatred makes people do stupid things and lets face it Thorast has not shown anything other than wanting to oppose Thirsk whenever possible. Then there is the small matter of ignorance, as others have mentioned I expect that until they see it for themselves how outclassed they are they cannot internalize it. Thirsk has done pretty well so far but they only get after action reports and neither are seamen. Nor have they seen what has happened to CoGA forces that got creamed by Charis. Salthar in particular would not sign onto new innovations without severe pressure from Duke Fern.

I don't see how these points support a lower threshold for the Dohlaran politicians to see reason. The Cities will outclass the current RDN substantially. Heck, Dreadnought outclasses the RDN. Still, Dreadnought is within technological reach if given enough time. The Cities are an extension of the River class and not too surprising. Clyntahn's spy stole a description of a steam engine and the Dohlarans will likely have heard of it and might even have a description of the principles involved. Building a City Class is a stretch, but a deluded pol might think it possible with enough time. They have the new steel making technology now, don't they? They have God on their side, don't they? All they need is time. The MHoGaA will distract the ICA and RSA enough to buy that time.

In comes the KH VIIs. They are something like 5-7 times bigger than a City Class and armored with plates twice as thick. The guns are so big, there is not enough room for sufficient naval gunners to move them to aim and fire. The amount of steel and the form that steel takes is beyond Dohlar's ability to make economically. For Dohlar to make just one of those ships would cost the nation an obscene amount of Marks, time and effort. Yet, Charis has built 3 of the leviathans at the same time as they have produced rifled artillery for the ICA and RSA, mortars and their ammo, countless new rifles and pistols for the infantry and their metal cartridges, however many new City ships they have and still have enough production capacity left over to make novelties like the lighter Thirsk picked up. They built those ships in less than 2 years since the canal raid despite the fire at Delthak works. Oh, yeah they built all that and redesigned most of the weapons at least once since the jihad started.

Its not the capabilities of the Cities that will crush the politicians will to fight. It is the inevitable conclusion represented by the KH VIIs that Charis can out produce Dohlar so dramatically that they can't withstand the deluge of massive quantities of superior weapons systems. This goes straight to the heart of the loyalists' arguments. If Charis's production is a demonic gift, why hasn't God and the Archangels responded? Instead seijin again roam the earth on Charis' side. Demons, the Chruch calls them, but where are the real seijin or the angels to counter those demons then?

The entire point behind the KH VIIs is to unequivocally show the superiority of the Charisian industrial system and dare the CoGA's Archangels to smite them. Absent the divine smite, Charis and all of Safehold must conclude God is not offended by Charisian technology. If He isn't offended, then you jihadi SOBS attacked Charis and killed its beloved king for nothing. Now surrender or suffer the King Haarald VII first shot fired in anger. It is certain Haarald the Great is watching his namesake and awaiting your decision.

I have come to the conclusion, Mac, that Dohlar can avoid chastisement from any of the King Haarald's. The Cities will have either finished the job or the arrival of the King Haarald's and the Cities will cause the Dohlar to surrender. There is a good chance Dohlar does not get is cities destroyed. They might still be intransigent enough to resist and allow the KH VIIs to vent their spleen on the hapless cities. Adds aren't good from my way of thinking.

McGuiness wrote:Clearly the Cities can defeat Thirsk's fleet and the defenses of Gorath Bay, then ravage the waterfront of Dohlar's capital city. However, revenge for turning over POWs to the Inquisition not just once but twice requires a political response.

I'm not sure where the royal palace is located, but it's much more likely that the 10" rifled guns of the KHs could shell it (or drop one 10" shell on it as a very effective demonstration) than the 6" guns of the Cities. Keep in mind, RFC stated that although there clearly aren't any enemy ships that can threaten the KHs, the military purpose of those big guns will involve "hitting targets on land." Since he also mentioned taking out harbor defenses in the same post, I believe we've been given what you might call a hint!

Having the palace splintering around him will tend to focus King Ronald's attention on Dohlar's dire military situation. The threat of the Inquisition takes a back seat when a good part of Gorath can be destroyed with impunity, including the nobility and their fancy homes. (Not that Cayleb, Sharley, and Merlin are likely to implement such a policy.) With the fleet sunk or surrendered and all shipping around Dohlar sunk or stuck in port due to the Cities and a KH or two, and Siddarmark banging on the door of their eastern border, Dohlar needs to either surrender or withdraw from the Jihad and declare neutrality, which Desnair has effectively done already, at least on land. The schooners they're building to harass ICN convoys allow them to argue that they're still fighting, but it seems that the political crisis I expected following the decimation of the AoS has ended all desires in Desnair to engage in further land attacks on Siddarmark.

A Dohlaran surrender would be politically disastrous to the existing nobility, and even worse for the CoGA, since every inquisitor would immediately be subject to the death penalty and the CoC would be allowed to set up shop. A declaration of neutrality would still gut the CoGA of its navy and the the support of the only remaining southern power that shares a border with Siddarmark. (Not that Dohlar has an army that it could hope to throw against Hanth and win, nor will it before he's heavily reinforced by new Siddarmarkan battalions.)

I expect a swift abdication, negotiations that include Thirsk, Ahlverez, Fern, and whichever members of Ronald's group of advisers who are willing to meet with the heretics and serve on the Regency Council. Thorast may lose his influence simply through cowardice in refusing to meet with the Charisians, or by continued opposition to the inevitable. He can always be put up against the wall and shot, and not necessarily by foreign forces!

I can't wait to see Clyntahn's reaction when he gets the news and realizes there's nothing he can do about it!

Because it is the JOB of politicos to miss the blatantly obvious until they get punished for it. Some examples include Clyntahn's refusal to let any of the army of god retreat, Magwair ignoring Thirsk's battle report on the new galleons and Desnair's Duke Harless completely ignoring who invented the new model artillery cannon despite knowledge of his own artillery abilities.

The Safehold series has several examples of highly positioned people having blinkers on and running straight into brick walls, EVEN in Charis (NTM in our world). Recall AOR and how the chancellor Rayjhis Yowance, Earl of Gray Harbor would not believe his son-in-law was plotting treason after being confirmed proof. To top it off both Thorast and Salthar have a track record of ignoring things because of personal hatred or strong CoGA orthodoxy leanings. The reason they matter is they are part of the council of war, which would be the logical body to try extricating Dohlar from the jihad.

Having them in such an important position makes a peace more difficult, which also means take a lot longer to achieve. Time is now pretty short for Dohlar, especially if Charis decides to not wait for the KH battleships to be completed. There is also the probability that the consequences of surrender for them may be very unpalatable, Thorast for instance has powerful connections with the CoGA and being part of the surrender or peace deal will destroy that power. Salthar is likely in a similar position given his rank, position and orthodoxy.

Now the point about surrender at the sight of the KH's is likely to me as well, assuming Charis decides to let them have that opportunity. The KH can bombard from such ranges that visibility becomes an issue and NTM political reasons for a little wreckage of Dohlar. Surrender to the cities OTOH before they have fired a shot is unlikely in the extreme, Desnair didn't after all.

Finally you must remember that MWW does not write military porn, a political struggle with judicious help from seijins sounds more interesting than simple port destruction. I recall the surprise that the Sword of Schueler achieved with readers, no one predicted such a savage attack and the fallout of that attack. A big part of why I feel a SIMPLE solution to Dohlar is unlikely given the detail in Thirsk and others is due to suspecting MWW is trying to pull a curve-ball on us.

I'm almost certain that Dohlar is being set up as Charis' primary post-War rival. And that's just not going to happen if Charis beats Dohlar into the ground and completely destroys their industry and military first.

But it's even more obvious that Dohlar just can't fight Charis head to head right now if they have Charis' undivided attention.

So for Dohlar to become Charis's primary post-War rival, Dohlar has to SURVIVE the war more or less intact.

I don't think that the Haarahlds are needed to impress the Dohlarians. If the Cities do as thorough a job on Gorath and the RDN as they did on the Desnairians at Geyra, even politicians are not going to be able to miss the point.

Don

n7axw wrote:I don't think that the Haarahlds are needed to impress the Dohlarians. If the Cities do as thorough a job on Gorath and the RDN as they did on the Desnairians at Geyra, even politicians are not going to be able to miss the point.

Don

There comes a point where, if someone is that insistent on other people dying because they won't recognize plain facts, that the other people quit obeying orders and may up and arrest or defenestrate the idiots.

I think that that tolerance for Thorast and Salthar will expire before the arrival of King Haarahlds at Gorath.

Ahbrahm Zhevons had very good luck with close, personal conversations with Gorjah of Tarot about his stance vis a vis Charis and the jihad. I'm sure Rahnahld has his moments sleeping alone too in which a fruitful interview could be scheduled for high level diplomacy. He may need to change pajamas right after the beginning, but hey, he's the kind, he's sure to have spares. One result of such discussions may be the king reconsidering some of his appointments, in the interests of international harmony and not having his pleasant palace reduced to rubble on top of him.