Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

So, Merlin and Thirsk need to talk. I've wondered, what about? Here is my speculation:

1. Merlin will let Thirsk know his family is alive and in Charisan hands, and that nothing bad will happen to them no matter what Thirsk does. I am sure Thirsk will believe him.

2. Merlin and Thirsk will also discuss the high probability that Thirsk will be the subject of an assassination attempt shortly, since Clyntahn no longer has a hold over him, and doesn't trust him.

I believe they will also discuss that Clyntahn (or Rayno, same thing) will try to arrange Thirsk's death in such a manner that blame will be cast on Charis - setting Thirsk up as a martyr to motivate Temple loyalists and those sitting on the fence - and also providing motivation for the Dohlaran navy.

3. It's possible - possible - Merlin may make some nano-healing available to Thirsk without telling him so.

4. Merlin also will somehow manage to help Thirsk see himself objectively, and to realize that, by compromising his honor, he's become only a shell of the man he once was. Merlin likely will not suggest that Thirsk should or could redeem himself and his honor, let alone suggest to Thirsk how he might do that.

5. Thirsk's actions from that point? There are some possibilities:

a. Make a public speech denouncing Clyntahn and the Inquisition, and exposing the Inquisition's practice of making hostages of the families of important people to insure their obedience and cooperation, before offing himself;

b. Somehow encourage his better officers to - who knows what? Rebel? Mutiny? Turn their ships over to Charis?

c. Arrange for the destruction of the Dreadnought;

d. Who knows what else?

The only thing I know is, that Thirsk is going to realize he is no longer controlled by the Church, that the Church will likely try to target him and use his death for its own purposes, and that he has a meaningful chance at doing something so he no longer will loathe himself.

The possibilities - seemingly endless.

I'd say 1 is certain, although I wouldn't be so confident that Thirsk will believe Merlin outright. Obviously, he will want to believe it, but he's just as likely to suspect foul play. Some proof would be necessary, although at the moment I can think of nothing that would be 100% convincing.

2 will probably flow out of 1 naturally. I'd say Merlin would suggest (not outright offer, but I guess the implication would be clear) that Thirsk may join his family if he so desires.

I don't really believe in 3, because why would Merlin do so? It's not like with Cayleb etc, where Merlin needs them for his plans to succeed and doesn't want to see them dead for as long as possible. He does hold Thirsk in high regard, but that's not the same. Although it could be possible that something would come out of the conversation that would prompt Merlin to do so. Maybe speeding up his healing or providing him with antiballistic undies to show that Church isn't all that good in offing people?

I've no comment on 4, as I agree wholeheartedly.

As to 5, (a) would be somewhat anticlimatic, really, and I'd much rather not see Thirsk commit suicide after all this. (b)... Nope. He's not the kind to endanger his men, not after what has happened just a few days before. I don't really see (c) happenning either, mostly because Mother Church may be an afwul mother, but there's still the kingdom and its people being Thirsk's concern.

My personal guess would be that Thirsk would start to probe and push for some way for Dohlar to exit the Jihad. The foundations for this has already been laid out and despite his poor standing with huge part of the government, I think he could do a lot behind the scenes. He commands the most powerf- the only naval force the Church has left and now has very little to lose.

On the other hand, I don't think he'll do anything that could harm his subordinates. He doesn't really strike me as this kind of a person. On the other hand, if Inquisition tries to kill him and he escapes, then reveals the truth, this would act as a catalyst for the navy to mutiny of its own accord, even if he wouldn't like it. He's the guy who built them - they won't take any harm coming to him well.

Merlin very likely has a note written by one of Thirsk's daughters confirming that they are still alive.

I think Thirsk knows Cayleb well enough to trust that Cayleb won't use his family against him.

While I'm not sure what else Merlin will tell Thirsk, I doubt Merlin will "reveal the Truth" to him.

I doubt that Thirsk will leave with Merlin but may decide to fight back against the main Church in some manner.

Kakai wrote:I'd say 1 is certain, although I wouldn't be so confident that Thirsk will believe Merlin outright. Obviously, he will want to believe it, but he's just as likely to suspect foul play. Some proof would be necessary, although at the moment I can think of nothing that would be 100% convincing.

2 will probably flow out of 1 naturally. I'd say Merlin would suggest (not outright offer, but I guess the implication would be clear) that Thirsk may join his family if he so desires.

I don't really believe in 3, because why would Merlin do so? It's not like with Cayleb etc, where Merlin needs them for his plans to succeed and doesn't want to see them dead for as long as possible. He does hold Thirsk in high regard, but that's not the same. Although it could be possible that something would come out of the conversation that would prompt Merlin to do so. Maybe speeding up his healing or providing him with antiballistic undies to show that Church isn't all that good in offing people?

I've no comment on 4, as I agree wholeheartedly.

As to 5, (a) would be somewhat anticlimatic, really, and I'd much rather not see Thirsk commit suicide after all this. (b)... Nope. He's not the kind to endanger his men, not after what has happened just a few days before. I don't really see (c) happenning either, mostly because Mother Church may be an afwul mother, but there's still the kingdom and its people being Thirsk's concern.

My personal guess would be that Thirsk would start to probe and push for some way for Dohlar to exit the Jihad. The foundations for this has already been laid out and despite his poor standing with huge part of the government, I think he could do a lot behind the scenes. He commands the most powerf- the only naval force the Church has left and now has very little to lose.

On the other hand, I don't think he'll do anything that could harm his subordinates. He doesn't really strike me as this kind of a person. On the other hand, if Inquisition tries to kill him and he escapes, then reveals the truth, this would act as a catalyst for the navy to mutiny of its own accord, even if he wouldn't like it. He's the guy who built them - they won't take any harm coming to him well.

DrakBibliophile wrote:Merlin very likely has a note written by one of Thirsk's daughters confirming that they are still alive.

I think Thirsk knows Cayleb well enough to trust that Cayleb won't use his family against him.

While I'm not sure what else Merlin will tell Thirsk, I doubt Merlin will "reveal the Truth" to him.

I doubt that Thirsk will leave with Merlin but may decide to fight back against the main Church in some manner.

Kakai wrote:I'd say 1 is certain, although I wouldn't be so confident that Thirsk will believe Merlin outright. Obviously, he will want to believe it, but he's just as likely to suspect foul play. Some proof would be necessary, although at the moment I can think of nothing that would be 100% convincing.

2 will probably flow out of 1 naturally. I'd say Merlin would suggest (not outright offer, but I guess the implication would be clear) that Thirsk may join his family if he so desires.

I don't really believe in 3, because why would Merlin do so? It's not like with Cayleb etc, where Merlin needs them for his plans to succeed and doesn't want to see them dead for as long as possible. He does hold Thirsk in high regard, but that's not the same. Although it could be possible that something would come out of the conversation that would prompt Merlin to do so. Maybe speeding up his healing or providing him with antiballistic undies to show that Church isn't all that good in offing people?

I've no comment on 4, as I agree wholeheartedly.

As to 5, (a) would be somewhat anticlimatic, really, and I'd much rather not see Thirsk commit suicide after all this. (b)... Nope. He's not the kind to endanger his men, not after what has happened just a few days before. I don't really see (c) happenning either, mostly because Mother Church may be an afwul mother, but there's still the kingdom and its people being Thirsk's concern.

My personal guess would be that Thirsk would start to probe and push for some way for Dohlar to exit the Jihad. The foundations for this has already been laid out and despite his poor standing with huge part of the government, I think he could do a lot behind the scenes. He commands the most powerf- the only naval force the Church has left and now has very little to lose.

On the other hand, I don't think he'll do anything that could harm his subordinates. He doesn't really strike me as this kind of a person. On the other hand, if Inquisition tries to kill him and he escapes, then reveals the truth, this would act as a catalyst for the navy to mutiny of its own accord, even if he wouldn't like it. He's the guy who built them - they won't take any harm coming to him well.

I agree with every thought expressed by Drak in this post.

IMO the question is what will Thirsk do to SAVE his subordinates? There are already a boatload being held by the inquisition after the prisoner convoy got ambushed. I expect that will motivate Thirsk to stay in Dohlar to prevent the inquisition killing his men.

I have posted about this before, mainly on how Dohlar is not actually ruled by their king which creates a murky command structure. This matters a fair bit in trying to remove an entrenched power like the inquisition and cut a deal with an enemy at the gates. (Earl Hanth is 100-150 miles from border) One problem Thirsk may have is his success in defending Dohlar, as people will expect him to be able to repeat that performance when we know he is pretty screwed

Suspect could see some Merlin or Nimue skulduggery and mayhem to get an outcome to meet their long term goals rather than the smashing of Dohlar.

I think that Merlin will most certainly carry a handwritten letter from his daughter and perhaps some other memento from Thirsk's grandchildren. He will almost certainly also present a letter from Cayleb addressed to Thirsk assuring him that, no matter what happens or what he decides to do, his daughter and grandchildren will be safe and well taken care of. I also think that Merlin will, in view of his depressed state, of which everyone around him is surely aware, attempt to convince him that a convenient alcohol assisted fatal accident, a Merlin special so to speak, will be in his and his family's best interests. Further, no demand other that he refrain from assisting the Empire's enemies in any way will be made. If he agrees, he can disappear and no one will be surprised if his body is never recovered and his subordinates will not suffer any untoward consequences.

I agree Thursk will be told his family lives with letter from one or more of them to prove it. Also I agree he may have a letter from Cauleb that his family is not a hostage. and an offer to allow him to join them if he wishes. That he is free to exercise his own beliefs as to rather stay or go.

I think Thursk will stay, and do what he can to survive, help his country, and his subordinates.

Poker

Dutch46 wrote: I also think that Merlin will, in view of his depressed state, of which everyone around him is surely aware, attempt to convince him that a convenient alcohol assisted fatal accident, a Merlin special so to speak, will be in his and his family's best interests. Further, no demand other that he refrain from assisting the Empire's enemies in any way will be made. If he agrees, he can disappear and no one will be surprised if his body is never recovered and his subordinates will not suffer any untoward consequences.

I can't see Thirsk leaving the survivors of the battle with Baron Seamount to the tender mercies of the inquisition. And, knowing that, he will need to come up with some way to save them. He will also want to save the rest of his men -- not to mention the King and Kingdom he is sworn to protect -- from the defeat and destruction he has come to see as inevitable. And the only way to do all of that, or really ANY of that, is to find a way to pull Dohlar out of the Jihad. This can't be done without neutralizing the Inquisition's servants in Dohlar, as well as the Church's supporters within the aristocracy, most of whom are senior to him in both rank and office. Yet he is not without potential allies, including Alverez for additional military heft, his intendant, and, it would seem, the PM, Duke Fern. Between them, they have access to a whole lot of power levers, not to mention the brains, experience, and need to use them effectively and well. That he would make the effort, knowing it could very well end in his own death, strikes me as far more likely than him simply walking away, much less defecting. And, having him walk away would also be rather a waste for a character RFC has developed with nuance and depth since OAR.

Sargon wrote:

Dutch46 wrote: I also think that Merlin will, in view of his depressed state, of which everyone around him is surely aware, attempt to convince him that a convenient alcohol assisted fatal accident, a Merlin special so to speak, will be in his and his family's best interests. Further, no demand other that he refrain from assisting the Empire's enemies in any way will be made. If he agrees, he can disappear and no one will be surprised if his body is never recovered and his subordinates will not suffer any untoward consequences.

I can't see Thirsk leaving the survivors of the battle with Baron Seamount to the tender mercies of the inquisition. And, knowing that, he will need to come up with some way to save them. He will also want to save the rest of his men -- not to mention the King and Kingdom he is sworn to protect -- from the defeat and destruction he has come to see as inevitable. And the only way to do all of that, or really ANY of that, is to find a way to pull Dohlar out of the Jihad. This can't be done without neutralizing the Inquisition's servants in Dohlar, as well as the Church's supporters within the aristocracy, most of whom are senior to him in both rank and office. Yet he is not without potential allies, including Alverez for additional military heft, his intendant, and, it would seem, the PM, Duke Fern. Between them, they have access to a whole lot of power levers, not to mention the brains, experience, and need to use them effectively and well. That he would make the effort, knowing it could very well end in his own death, strikes me as far more likely than him simply walking away, much less defecting. And, having him walk away would also be rather a waste for a character RFC has developed with nuance and depth since OAR.

I pretty much agree with this... Thirsk could die in the attempt to get Dohlar out of the war. RFC can kill off his well developed characters. Think of Javier Giscard and Alistar Mckeon in the Honorverse. The possibility adds tension to the plot.

Don

You see, earl, we want you. We want you on our side, but, unlike Clyntahn, we recognize that someone who threatens one's family can never become one's friend. So not only it would have been immoral for us to threaten your family, but also foolish and counter productive. So carry on your duty, but also think about of the implications of the fact that the safest place for your family is the country of your "enemy". Is is bound to become very... interesting exercise.

Half an hour later, sitting in skimmer cockpit and watching SNARC feed Merlin showed his devilish smile: Keikakudouri.