(SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate

JeffEngel wrote:

CJK wrote:From the sound of it RFC the last naval battle (Dohlar) will done before the King Haarald's are even finished. After all if the 2 Cities that dealt with Desnair are now free to focus on Dohlar with plenty of supporting galleons at Claw Island.

Especially as the Army of God and Archangels has to go into winter quarters in 1 and a 1/2 months and Earl Hanth is much closer to the equator. NTM Charis has winter fighting capability it would be very logical to squeeze Dohlar with army and naval forces like an annoying pimple while the CoGA is literally unable to do anything to help.

Squeezing Dohlar may be something to keep up just long enough to get them to drop out. Being able to make defection stick in Dohlar may well depend on making it painfully clear to those who would prefer to keep on fighting for the Church as long as it can usefully be done that that point has passed already. The people who are inclined to fight to the death, come what may, may be a small enough minority that the rest of Dohlar can keep them in line, once the rest of Dohlar gets behind getting the heck out of this mess.

And ships and troops around the Gulf of Dohlar, when that job is done, are close to the Border States, Temple Lands, and either Harchong, and are, if not close to Hsing-Wu's Passage, are at least not as far from it as many other Allied forces.

To me it looks somewhat as if the inner circle is avoiding pushing Dohlar too much in order to keep them in play for a while longer. Forces could have been diverted to catch Ahlvarez and flank the forces facing Hanth and put Charisian troops in Dohlar. But the inner circle needs the object lesson that the KH VII's will deliver and especially the continued innovation - and the discredit the church's actions cause.

gamarus wrote:To me it looks somewhat as if the inner circle is avoiding pushing Dohlar too much in order to keep them in play for a while longer. Forces could have been diverted to catch Ahlvarez and flank the forces facing Hanth and put Charisian troops in Dohlar. But the inner circle needs the object lesson that the KH VII's will deliver and especially the continued innovation - and the discredit the church's actions cause.

Right. The Allies can only barely practically occupy some enemy states, so it's a matter of reclaiming Siddarmark's western territories, eliminating the ability of enemies to project power into the Out Islands, Siddarmark, or - longer term - any other places that would like to opt out of Clyntahn's jihad. The Army of Justice got smashed up, disarmed, and driven back; the Army of God got crushed; pursuit into Dohlar or Desnair hasn't happened and, if Hanth's progress is any indication, isn't geared for more than keeping them moving backward and feeling pressured.

Carrot and stick - you want out of the jihad, the Allies are open to making deals, often generous ones, formal or sub rosa. You want to keep fighting, you're going to lose your armies and navies at least, and then your ports, and then... well, they WILL occupy you if you're that boneheaded. Or get creative and sponsor civil wars and revolutions. Every time and place the stick gets applied, it's with an eye toward making sure the carrot offer is still palatable, without making the war any more barbaric than wars have to be - if nothing else, it makes the occupation more practical.

gamarus wrote:
To me it looks somewhat as if the inner circle is avoiding pushing Dohlar too much in order to keep them in play for a while longer. Forces could have been diverted to catch Ahlvarez and flank the forces facing Hanth and put Charisian troops in Dohlar. But the inner circle needs the object lesson that the KH VII's will deliver and especially the continued innovation - and the discredit the church's actions cause.

Your theory is one that is out there. My own take is that Dohlar hasn't been dealt with to this point because the allies had to prioritze threats, dealing with Kaitswryth, Alhverez and the Desnairian privateers as the more immediate issues. Dohlar, on the other hand could be put on the back burner.

I admit I was a bit disapointed at not seeing the Haarahlds in HFQ. But RFC has rather emphatically made the point that they are more about advancing technology than winning the war. So... we'll see what happens in the next book...

Don

n7axw wrote:

gamarus wrote:
To me it looks somewhat as if the inner circle is avoiding pushing Dohlar too much in order to keep them in play for a while longer. Forces could have been diverted to catch Ahlvarez and flank the forces facing Hanth and put Charisian troops in Dohlar. But the inner circle needs the object lesson that the KH VII's will deliver and especially the continued innovation - and the discredit the church's actions cause.

Your theory is one that is out there. My own take is that Dohlar hasn't been dealt with to this point because the allies had to prioritze threats, dealing with Kaitswryth, Alhverez and the Desnairian privateers as the more immediate issues. Dohlar, on the other hand could be put on the back burner.

I admit I was a bit disapointed at not seeing the Haarahlds in HFQ. But RFC has rather emphatically made the point that they are more about advancing technology than winning the war. So... we'll see what happens in the next book...

Don

I'm with you, Don, Dohlar just wasn't a threat this year. On the naval side it was absolotely necessary to deal with the Desnairan raiders to protect the whole supply chain. On land, Wyrshym (I take it you meant) and Kaitswyrth had to be taken out to free and secure Siddarmark and prevent counterattacks. The forces involved are also now in a good postion to face the MHOGA.

The very last thing the Allies need is to tie up forces trying to take and garrison a hostile country well out of the way of the MHOGA advance. As long as Dohlar is bottled up, that's fine thank you. The other decision the Allies made was for humanitarian rather than strategic reasons; they spent time and troops freeing those of the concentration camps they could get at.

Randomiser wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Your theory is one that is out there. My own take is that Dohlar hasn't been dealt with to this point because the allies had to prioritze threats, dealing with Kaitswryth, Alhverez and the Desnairian privateers as the more immediate issues. Dohlar, on the other hand could be put on the back burner.

I admit I was a bit disapointed at not seeing the Haarahlds in HFQ. But RFC has rather emphatically made the point that they are more about advancing technology than winning the war. So... we'll see what happens in the next book...

Don

I'm with you, Don, Dohlar just wasn't a threat this year. On the naval side it was absolotely necessary to deal with the Desnairan raiders to protect the whole supply chain. On land, Wyrshym (I take it you meant) and Kaitswyrth had to be taken out to free and secure Siddarmark and prevent counterattacks. The forces involved are also now in a good postion to face the MHOGA.

The very last thing the Allies need is to tie up forces trying to take and garrison a hostile country well out of the way of the MHOGA advance. As long as Dohlar is bottled up, that's fine thank you. The other decision the Allies made was for humanitarian rather than strategic reasons; they spent time and troops freeing those of the concentration camps they could get at.

The stone of this year's campaign choices may be hitting a number of birds. Keeping Dohlar pressured instead of stormed left forces available to crush the AoG, liberate camps, leave the Mighty Host out on Siddarmark's frontier and maybe backing away... and it has left the Allies without having to try to occupy a country that would be really obnoxious to occupy and given more time and reason to consider the alternatives to coming up next on the serious hit list.

It's not either/or, reasons for giving Dohlar less hostile attention than theoretically available as soon as possible. If one plan achieves several goals, great. It's also given the Allies options for the upcoming campaigning, diplomatic, and covert operations seasons. If Dohlar takes pressure, it can get it; if it takes stomping, it can get it. But if it opts out, the Border States and Temple Lands can certainly absorb the attention.

I see the most probable scenario is that Gorath will be taken from the sea once the Cities class iron clads arrive in the Gulf.

I can't see leaving Dohlar unmolested indefinately. Having Hanth caught between the mighty host and a rebuilt Dohlarian Army would not be optimal planning.

Right now it would appear that the Southern MHOG is deployed against Eastshare. But that could change as the next wave of Harchongians is brought forward.

The bottom line is that while there is still time for Dohlar to be gotten out of the war without invasion, it is probably limited to the amount of time that it will take Charis to get the Cities into Gorath Bay. And we have textev that can be interpreted as meaning that Zhastro's squadron will receive orders to that effect in the near term future.

Don

pokermind wrote:Not to mention sailing distances this list from a David Weber post:

Second, a few sea distances:
Tellesberg to Siddar City:..................8,000+ miles
Port Royal to Siddar City:..................9,830+ miles
Port Royal to Gorath Bay:..................14,270+ miles
Border States to Siddar City:...............2,400+ miles

So? Without coaling stations you can't get pure steamships to Gorath Bay, that's why Charis is building coaling stations to provide the infrastructure to allow steam ship operation.

Poker

One "clinker": It might be possible to get coal to Gorath Gulf soon enough through the Salthar canal. That doesn't obviate all your's and other's points which are absolutely sound.

Can any armored class boats get through that canal???

jgnfld wrote:

pokermind wrote:Not to mention sailing distances this list from a David Weber post:

Second, a few sea distances:
Tellesberg to Siddar City:..................8,000+ miles
Port Royal to Siddar City:..................9,830+ miles
Port Royal to Gorath Bay:..................14,270+ miles
Border States to Siddar City:...............2,400+ miles

So? Without coaling stations you can't get pure steamships to Gorath Bay, that's why Charis is building coaling stations to provide the infrastructure to allow steam ship operation.

Poker

One "clinker": It might be possible to get coal to Gorath Gulf soon enough through the Salthar canal. That doesn't obviate all your's and other's points which are absolutely sound.

Can any armored class boats get through that canal???

The City class iron sides have a coal tender ship with them but why is the only coal available to these ships the coal that they bring with them? As part of the harbor raids and such, why aren't they pilfering coal for their ships? Maybe they are and RFC didn't tell us they were.

The river class iron side boat had been successfully traveling the canal system for a while now. I'm thinking that the "city" class ships are to large.

I read that the KH-VII's can hold enough coal that if they travel at 12 knots they can make it all the way from Charis to Claw Island. Only halfway there if they travel at 22 knots.

Nobody in Dohlar or the entire CoGA is going to expect a ship as large as the KH-VII's to go so incredibly fast.

StealthSeeker wrote:The City class iron sides have a coal tender ship with them but why is the only coal available to these ships the coal that they bring with them? As part of the harbor raids and such, why aren't they pilfering coal for their ships? Maybe they are and RFC didn't tell us they were.

You don't want to campaign on the basis of counting on taking specific resources from the enemy in order to maintain movement, not unless they're very, very hard for the enemy to remove from the area in sufficient amounts. (Such as fodder for cavalry raiders.)

Desnair hasn't got a reason to keep huge stockpiles of coal near their waterfronts, and even if they did, it's not something you can load up in the course of a raid, any more than Fallosian lumber is easily stolen. I'm sure that, if they come across any stockpiles and have the time and freedom to load up, they will, laughing and cheering all the way as the Desnairians gnash their teeth watching. But that's more taking advantage of an opportunity than a good plan routinely playing out.

And descriptions of those raids, particularly pilfering stages, weren't lengthy or frequent in HFQ, so it's not surprising any such pilfering wasn't described, if it wasn't so extensive and common that we'd be surprised precisely by how extensive and common it could be.

The river class iron side boat had been successfully traveling the canal system for a while now. I'm thinking that the "city" class ships are to large.

Probably, yup. Or they may be too large for safe maneuvering in many canals - they do come in a variety of sizes, and when you're moving along hostile canals in precious units, you want all the spare room you can get or to reconsider the whole idea.

JeffEngel wrote:You don't want to campaign on the basis of counting on taking specific resources from the enemy in order to maintain movement, not unless they're very, very hard for the enemy to remove from the area in sufficient amounts. (Such as fodder for cavalry raiders.)

Desnair hasn't got a reason to keep huge stockpiles of coal near their waterfronts, and even if they did, it's not something you can load up in the course of a raid, any more than Fallosian lumber is easily stolen. I'm sure that, if they come across any stockpiles and have the time and freedom to load up, they will, laughing and cheering all the way as the Desnairians gnash their teeth watching. But that's more taking advantage of an opportunity than a good plan routinely playing out.

To my way of thinking coal is going to be a fairly common comodity just about everywhere. I place that belief on the idea that coal isn't just used for heating buildings. I imagine that it is used in stoves for cooking. In the few wood burning stoves that I have seen the "firebox" is separate from the oven so smoke doesn't permeate the food being cooked. Coal would also be used in industry, you can't make weapons if you haven't got coal to heat the hearth. In my mind a lot of that industry, and the associated supply of coal, is going to be near the water front. Another potential reason for the coal being at the water front is because it arrives by ship. Coal in the Safehold world just seems to be universally available.

However, I do agree that you could not depend on coal being available. But I would plan on taking advantage of every opportunity to pilfer coal that I could to extent the effective operation limits of my ships that depend on that coal.