[HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?

n7axw wrote:Thanks for this post, RFC. 90% of what you said was right there in the text.

Guys, are we Reading before we react???

Don

Yes, we are reading before reacting. The point that wasn't answered here was: Why didn't someone with SNARK control cause a SNARK in the magazine to blow up, causing the entire ship to blow up, too.

It took essentially demonic intervention (i.e. the author wanted it to happen) to keep the ship from blowing up. A SNARK finishing the job wouldn't have surprised anyone still alive once the explosion was done.

If RFC has answered this anywhere, I can't find it.

GregD wrote:

n7axw wrote:Thanks for this post, RFC. 90% of what you said was right there in the text.

Guys, are we Reading before we react???

Don

Yes, we are reading before reacting. The point that wasn't answered here was: Why didn't someone with SNARK control cause a SNARK in the magazine to blow up, causing the entire ship to blow up, too.

It took essentially demonic intervention (i.e. the author wanted it to happen) to keep the ship from blowing up. A SNARK finishing the job wouldn't have surprised anyone still alive once the explosion was done.

If RFC has answered this anywhere, I can't find it.

My response, which appears in the thread Duckk started after asking me about it in light of the discussion of this very point on-forum, was that there was no need for him to do so. The capture of this ship by Dohlar is essentially a deadend. The only parts of it they can possibly duplicate in the short term are the carriages and fuses and MAYBE the brown powder, though I have my doubts about how quickly they'll manage that. They can't duplicate the armor, they can't duplicate the wire-wound guns, and they already pretty much know how to do anything else they could "learn" from her.

More to the point, she's already hopelessly obsolescent compared to what's going to be coming at Dohlar in the next few months. There's no way the RDN can put her back into service -- with ammo for her guns-- before the first City-class ironclads get there and blow her into dustbunnies. If Dohlar wants to waste precious time and resources trying to duplicate her tech, Merlin is just fine with that. Even Sarmouth and Hektor were more distressed over the loss of life (which Merlin couldn't have prevented), the loss of conventional platforms (which threatened the ability to project power in the immediate, short-term future simply because they no longer had sufficient hulls, not because the RDN now had a crippled obsolete ironclad), and the fact that no one at Claw Island knew how the immediate naval balance had shifted. Before they realised how crippled she was (and how short on ammo) they felt some concern about her leading a counterattack on Claw Island before anyone there knew she was coming, but the ICN knows exactly to stop her, even with the weapons already sited there IF they know she could be coming.

Merlin worried a bit about the carriages and what could potentially be learned about her ammo. Beyond that, he simply didn't care about what they might learn and he saw it (assuming they did try to capitalize on it as a tech booster) as another version of diverting the enemy into what could only be an industrial and economic cul de sac, given their existing tech base and manufacturing capacity. Would he have been happier if her crew had managed to blow her up and take a stack of enemies with her? From an emotional standpoint, sure. From a practical consequences standpoint, there are actually advantages to letting Dohlar have her.

If-- if -- there had been any doubt in his mind about how useful (or not) she might have proven in enemy hands, then he certainly would have blown her up. The fact that he did no such thing should, perhaps, be recognized as an in indicator that he felt no such doubt.

Don't know how much clearer that can be made.

GregD wrote:

n7axw wrote:Thanks for this post, RFC. 90% of what you said was right there in the text.

Guys, are we Reading before we react???

Don

Yes, we are reading before reacting. The point that wasn't answered here was: Why didn't someone with SNARK control cause a SNARK in the magazine to blow up, causing the entire ship to blow up, too.

It took essentially demonic intervention (i.e. the author wanted it to happen) to keep the ship from blowing up. A SNARK finishing the job wouldn't have surprised anyone still alive once the explosion was done.

If RFC has answered this anywhere, I can't find it.

I believe it has been repeatedly stated in the series that use of Federation weaponry has been ruled out out of concern for waking up the OBS. In fact we learned in HFQ during the rescue of Thirsk's family that the skimmer has been refitted to handle lower tech laser guided bombs as a way around the problem. I think that's a reasonable answer to your question.

As to why the skimmer wasn't used with the same system to destroy Dreadnought, all I can really say is that is not how RFC wanted to tell the story.

A worthwhile question, by the way. I think it's worth exploring in its own thread.

Don

n7axw wrote:I believe it has been repeatedly stated in the series that use of Federation weaponry has been ruled out out of concern for waking up the OBS.

Except the Fed tech capability we're debating is the same one Merlin considered using to blow off the previous Prince of Corisande's head: a small explosive charge carried by one of his bugs that was originally designed for destroying equipment.

Merlin ruled out its use as an assassination tool on moral grounds. No mention was ever made of its detectability by the OBS's sensors, implying they wouldn't be detected at all.

They can't duplicate the armor, they can't duplicate the wire-wound guns,

But they could understood a lot more about the theoretical basics of large rifled gun design. They could not duplicate them, but they would understood a lot clearer, what they need to do to made a working heavy rifle. They already have 10-inch large naval smoothbores? They could start to convert them to rifles with the wrought iron insertions (like it was done on Rodman guns in 1870-1880s), using the captured guns as the object of evaluation aznd calculations.

Look, people: Don't lose sight of Merlin's strategic main goal. Which is to break the tech-phobic mindset on the whole planet - meaning on the church side too. Indeed especially there.

Yes, in a way it would be satisfying to short-cut this war, defeat the CoGA as fast and easily as possible and prevent any temporary setback - like Thunderer - from happening.

However: Would this really be the best way long-term? I do not think so.

Think this through!
Once the CoGA is defeated any further 'modernizing' and 'tech-phobia-breaking' will fall squarely on the victors.
Which means the conservatives will have a home-run just digging in, dragging their heels and citing proscriptions against anything they vaguely dislike. And with Safehold's religious background that will be very easy for them to do and very dangerous for Merlin's side.

So any modernization that already has taken place before the CoGA has fallen will be invaluable for the victors!
All the dispensations that Clynthan continues to hand out direcly play into Merlin's hands long-term. Indeed in many ways Clynthan - and the techies on the church side - are doing Merlin's job! They need to be encouraged, not discouraged!

So whenever you demand that the church does not get this innovation or does not get that temporary tactical victory you also simultaneously deny Merlin of a long-term advantage.
It is always tempting to sacrifice long-term gain for short-term gain. But wise?

Of course there are limits and there needs to be a balance. Merlin cannot risk the church actually winning this war. But right now it's not like there seems to be any real danger of that happening, right?

So let the church have their occasional victory. That's not a disadvantage for Merlin. It is an advantage!

Dilandu wrote:

They can't duplicate the armor, they can't duplicate the wire-wound guns,

But they could understood a lot more about the theoretical basics of large rifled gun design. They could not duplicate them, but they would understood a lot clearer, what they need to do to made a working heavy rifle. They already have 10-inch large naval smoothbores? They could start to convert them to rifles with the wrought iron insertions (like it was done on Rodman guns in 1870-1880s), using the captured guns as the object of evaluation aznd calculations.

Except that they're already producing big bore ML guns, as discussed in the current book. They've basically reinvented the Parrot Rifle, and they already knew how the Charisian rifled shells (and rifling system) worked. That's one of the points Brother Lynkyn discusses with Duchairn. In face, the point about banding and rifling existing guns is specifically addressed. So unless they can magically divine (and duplicate) the Charisian manufacturing techniques the guns do them exactly zero additional good from that perspective.

runsforcelery wrote:

Caoster wrote:...
You know, guys, the fact that Merlin used a bomb to destroy one galleon doesn't — as Jonathan points out above — mean that that's the only reason to build the thing in the first place. Note that Merlin has considerably heavier weapons that he also built "just in case." Does he want to use them? No. But if it becomes necessary for a "miraculous" intervention — of the sort that he absolutely hates the thought of but might find himself forced into in order to prevent something even worse...

Spoiler for the next book in the series here????!!!!

jgnfld wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:...
You know, guys, the fact that Merlin used a bomb to destroy one galleon doesn't — as Jonathan points out above — mean that that's the only reason to build the thing in the first place. Note that Merlin has considerably heavier weapons that he also built "just in case." Does he want to use them? No. But if it becomes necessary for a "miraculous" intervention — of the sort that he absolutely hates the thought of but might find himself forced into in order to prevent something even worse...

Spoiler for the next book in the series here????!!!!

That was my take on it, since there really wasn't necessary for Merlin to use any of the weapons he's created for the skimmer that won't attract attention from the OBS to blow up the ship, unless it was a heads up for events to come.

I covered this more in depth in an earlier post in this thread or some other, and I'm glad RFC decided to toss this bit of info our way. Of course Merlin needs to be careful where and when he uses those weapons - after all, it would be hard to explain thousand pound bombs falling from an empty spot in the sky during the day! I was glad to learn of the skimmer's new weapons, but my gut objection to using them in this case was that a SNARC in the magazine would have done the job less detectably, although the likelihood of the bomb itself being seen before it hit and exploded in the dark of night was practically nil. I wasn't worried about the skimmer being seen at all due to its stealth systems - although in retrospect I should have made that point more clearly.

It's interesting to note that the majority of those posting here seemed to have had the same reaction I did when the Thunderer was captured: "This is the one time that using a SNARC to blow something up wouldn't cause anyone to bat an eyelash, and it would keep EoC tech out of enemy hands, so why didn't anybody in the inner circle do it?" It's certainly what I'd expect Cayleb wanted to do, although the arguments that its a technological dead end for Dohlar and the CoGA, and also a waste of their resources makes sense, since it will be sitting at the bottom of Gorath Bay soon enough if they don't get it under sail soon, in which case it will end up on the ocean floor somewhere in the Gulf of Dohlar.

Thirsk was dictating a report in which he was about to say that they couldn't duplicate some aspect of the ship when he was interrupted and shot. So the Dohlarans recognized that at least some of the methods used to create the armor or the guns were beyond their abilities - I'm betting on the armor.

Realizing that the EoC can build ships like this in bulk while you can't build them at all has to be bad for morale. A commander who thinks that his wooden ships may end up facing a squadron of ironclad ships is half-beaten before he even sets sail, and they don't even know about the city-class ironclads that RFC has said are on the way, or the King Haarahlds that will follow on their heels. So the eastern Gulf of Dohlar will be an abattoir in the next book. The question is whether Thirsk can get his captains to strike their colors quickly enough so that the crews survive. He has a date with Clyntahn looming next summer if his men don't stop the Inquisition from seizing him and his staff and sending them off to Zion to be tortured to death. Of course we know that things are going to change drastically before the Inquisition is scheduled to snap Thirsk up, since the NoG will be fighting for its life and he may well be at sea and out of the Inquisition's reach.

Merlin probably doesn't know that Clyntahn is planning to move against Thirsk yet, since Clyntahn discussed it with Rayno in the Temple, so that may not come up in their conversation. Too bad, since it would go a long ways towards convincing him to take Merlin's advice - whatever that will be.

If nothing else Thirsk knows what Clyntahn will do if he strikes colors fast enough to save lives.