[Spoiler] The final chapter

Henry Brown wrote:But the inquisition does not know the family has been rescued. They are presumed dead. So yeah, the inquisition might realize that they have lost a potential source of leverage. But as long as they don't realize that Charis has gained that same source of leverage, I don't think they will move against Thirsk. In the short term.

we *KNOW* from sections in HFQ that Clyntahn is starting to turn against the Dohlaran Navy. The key question is, how soon?

I believe that Charis (Merlin) will ask where Thirsk he wants his family to go. Assuring him that leverage is not what they seek just to stop the CoGA and the Inquisition from their evil deeds. Merlin will also offer to whisk him away to that location as well. Options probably will be discussed: DoDarcos is headed towards Charis in a sloop, Chisholm, Corisande are on the way and you can retire or not. Would you work against the Go4 but not Charis Blah ...Blah ...

I look forward to that conversation and hope Thirsk just disappears from his home and goes to the Cave. From there the story has many tracks & all of the above will be interesting

CJK wrote:@ JeffEngel Desnair may have a "reasonable" excuse to be unable to commit to the jihad, which last time I checked had NO impact on Clyntahn whatsoever. Specifically his response to the failure of the first 2 Desnarian Naval commanders was to order them to be killed along with their families. (thus making their asylum seeking with mentioned family members a wise decision)

Now 2 years later Clyntahn is unable to get the head of Hennet the second in command of the Army of Justice? That is a pretty fast change in policy, especially from a nation which is dependent upon the church to confirm the right to power/rule of the nobility as Desnair. This might be me just being cynical here but it looks to me that Desnair jettisoned church loyalty the instant it thought it could not be punished for it.

It amounts to that, yes. And surely something along those lines is going on in the backs of people's heads. There's a line in HFQ about Desnair perhaps being surprised itself about how cynical it's attitude toward religion really was - or its ruling class, anyway. There's also another line about how orthodox people are near the Desnair/Harchong border, on either side of it, so there's a tension between the people ruling Desnair and some of the people living in it.

Empires don't stay together as a matter of affection - they do as a matter of calculation or force. Desnair's forces have dropped to the point where the Empire may not remain in a single piece if it loses more, and the differing interests of religiously cynical central ministers and orthodox borderers, of internal provinces and coastal ones, and of nobility and everyone else are tugging it in too many divergent directions. Clyntahn isn't the only thing anyone has to fear, and sometimes, in small things, for now, the people around him can get him to put off frying small fish for kicks when it will damage the jihad. Killing Hennet is the sort of thing to make Desnair either come apart faster or back away further from the jihad - like keeping the tithes at home for the use of the Church in Desnair. And yes, that's a change, resulting from the lousy fortunes of war for the Temple and for Desnair.

As feckless as he is, Rahnahld of Dohlar is still able to command the loyalty of a kingdom that's not on the verge of coming apart at the seams. Unfortunately, that means that the Temple doesn't have to treat Dohlar with quite the same kid gloves, even though they're much more important for this war than Desnair was.

The argument of Desnair being useless is a valid one, right up to the point it ALSO means that they have no army to face 1 million strong army of god and archangels. Unless Desnair thinks Charis can win why are they trying for neutrality, when they have to know that Clyntahn will not forget their lack of loyalty to the CoGA? NTM saving Hennet from the inquisition will also be considered a slap in the face.

They're trying for, oh, call it inactive belligerence with Charis and Siddarmark, if they can get it. De-escalation, if you will. And all that is strictly de facto and as much as they can deny it to the Temple. It's a delicate balancing act, in part because it means giving a frank and honest answer to no one at all. Heck, in the privacy of their own thoughts, I'm sure a lot of Desnairian politicos aren't admitting what they are doing, and if any of them are, that's about the least private the thought is ever getting.

They are certainly risking Clyntahn's ire, and apparently are doing so without certain arrest by the Inquisition in Desnair - presumably because the Inquisition does not dare try to arrest anyone powerful there and get told to stuff it, and thereby drive Desnair's gold mines out of the war too. And in the long run, they are gambling that Clyntahn will not be in a position to hold them fatally to account for it later, or that they can make nice somehow if it comes to that, or that Clyntahn's wrath is at any rate less certain than similarly awful fates right at home if they do vigorously pursue the jihad. A hundred million serfs and slaves waiting for their chance if Desnair loses more troops, for instance, represent something a lot closer than the angry man in Zion.

Clyntahn's undercut all loyalty owed to the Church out of love and respect, leaving it with just fear. The problem with fear is that there are so many other players at that table, and Clyntahn's hand just isn't what it once was.

IMO pissing off Clyntahn is too dangerous given his extremism in carrying out the jihad, therefore those that do court his anger must be terminally stupid or acting under the belief that he will not be in a position to act against them. Ever. For desnair to come to that conclusion they either see Charis and Siddarmark winning (which is not at all certain given the numbers) or they see the financial collapse of the CoGA.

I'd not discount terminal stupidity among the Desnairian court. But yes, those that aren't may think the issue is at least in doubt, whether that be an outright military victory by Charis et al, a negotiated end that leaves Desnair (or, rather, those nobles) safe from Clyntahn, or some sort of agreement following Church financial collapse. But if they were that sure of it, I think they'd quit sending the tithes too - unless that's just to appease orthodox sorts who are not willing to abandon the Church and WILL threaten the court ministers if they do cut off the tithes.

All that is possible, but that Desnairian policy is a matter of keeping (1) Desnair in one piece and (2) relevant ministers in one piece, in the current circumstances with the long run left as a later exercise is possible too. In brief: they may not be stupid - they may be just trying to maintain their core needs in a desperate time day to day. And making Clyntahn happy turns out not to be a core need of people a third the way around the planet.

Could someone repost the link for that Raw Meat for the Speculators post that RFC put out there a while back? We have a new group of posters who would find those population figures useful and I don't have access to the link right now...

Don

JeffEngel wrote:

CJK wrote:@ JeffEngel Desnair may have a "reasonable" excuse to be unable to commit to the jihad, which last time I checked had NO impact on Clyntahn whatsoever. Specifically his response to the failure of the first 2 Desnarian Naval commanders was to order them to be killed along with their families. (thus making their asylum seeking with mentioned family members a wise decision)

Now 2 years later Clyntahn is unable to get the head of Hennet the second in command of the Army of Justice? That is a pretty fast change in policy, especially from a nation which is dependent upon the church to confirm the right to power/rule of the nobility as Desnair. This might be me just being cynical here but it looks to me that Desnair jettisoned church loyalty the instant it thought it could not be punished for it.

It amounts to that, yes. And surely something along those lines is going on in the backs of people's heads. There's a line in HFQ about Desnair perhaps being surprised itself about how cynical it's attitude toward religion really was - or its ruling class, anyway. There's also another line about how orthodox people are near the Desnair/Harchong border, on either side of it, so there's a tension between the people ruling Desnair and some of the people living in it.

Empires don't stay together as a matter of affection - they do as a matter of calculation or force. Desnair's forces have dropped to the point where the Empire may not remain in a single piece if it loses more, and the differing interests of religiously cynical central ministers and orthodox borderers, of internal provinces and coastal ones, and of nobility and everyone else are tugging it in too many divergent directions. Clyntahn isn't the only thing anyone has to fear, and sometimes, in small things, for now, the people around him can get him to put off frying small fish for kicks when it will damage the jihad. Killing Hennet is the sort of thing to make Desnair either come apart faster or back away further from the jihad - like keeping the tithes at home for the use of the Church in Desnair. And yes, that's a change, resulting from the lousy fortunes of war for the Temple and for Desnair.

As feckless as he is, Rahnahld of Dohlar is still able to command the loyalty of a kingdom that's not on the verge of coming apart at the seams. Unfortunately, that means that the Temple doesn't have to treat Dohlar with quite the same kid gloves, even though they're much more important for this war than Desnair was.

The argument of Desnair being useless is a valid one, right up to the point it ALSO means that they have no army to face 1 million strong army of god and archangels. Unless Desnair thinks Charis can win why are they trying for neutrality, when they have to know that Clyntahn will not forget their lack of loyalty to the CoGA? NTM saving Hennet from the inquisition will also be considered a slap in the face.

They're trying for, oh, call it inactive belligerence with Charis and Siddarmark, if they can get it. De-escalation, if you will. And all that is strictly de facto and as much as they can deny it to the Temple. It's a delicate balancing act, in part because it means giving a frank and honest answer to no one at all. Heck, in the privacy of their own thoughts, I'm sure a lot of Desnairian politicos aren't admitting what they are doing, and if any of them are, that's about the least private the thought is ever getting.

They are certainly risking Clyntahn's ire, and apparently are doing so without certain arrest by the Inquisition in Desnair - presumably because the Inquisition does not dare try to arrest anyone powerful there and get told to stuff it, and thereby drive Desnair's gold mines out of the war too. And in the long run, they are gambling that Clyntahn will not be in a position to hold them fatally to account for it later, or that they can make nice somehow if it comes to that, or that Clyntahn's wrath is at any rate less certain than similarly awful fates right at home if they do vigorously pursue the jihad. A hundred million serfs and slaves waiting for their chance if Desnair loses more troops, for instance, represent something a lot closer than the angry man in Zion.

Clyntahn's undercut all loyalty owed to the Church out of love and respect, leaving it with just fear. The problem with fear is that there are so many other players at that table, and Clyntahn's hand just isn't what it once was.

IMO pissing off Clyntahn is too dangerous given his extremism in carrying out the jihad, therefore those that do court his anger must be terminally stupid or acting under the belief that he will not be in a position to act against them. Ever. For desnair to come to that conclusion they either see Charis and Siddarmark winning (which is not at all certain given the numbers) or they see the financial collapse of the CoGA.

I'd not discount terminal stupidity among the Desnairian court. But yes, those that aren't may think the issue is at least in doubt, whether that be an outright military victory by Charis et al, a negotiated end that leaves Desnair (or, rather, those nobles) safe from Clyntahn, or some sort of agreement following Church financial collapse. But if they were that sure of it, I think they'd quit sending the tithes too - unless that's just to appease orthodox sorts who are not willing to abandon the Church and WILL threaten the court ministers if they do cut off the tithes.

All that is possible, but that Desnairian policy is a matter of keeping (1) Desnair in one piece and (2) relevant ministers in one piece, in the current circumstances with the long run left as a later exercise is possible too. In brief: they may not be stupid - they may be just trying to maintain their core needs in a desperate time day to day. And making Clyntahn happy turns out not to be a core need of people a third the way around the planet.

I could be mistaken on this one, but my own guess as to how long it is before Dohlar is out of the war would be months, not longer. The alternatives to complete military defeat is if Merlin's conversation with Thirsk leads to something constructive.

As for Desnair, it's physical isolation will soon be complete when the ironclads arrive in the Gulf and put an end to Dohlar's navy. I find myself thinking that there are at least two possibilities about what might happen there. One is that the inquisition might find itself very vulnerable sinse it would Be isolated from Zion. The pattern for that has already been established in the EOC. Marhys might decide that Zion and its inquisitors are more trouble than they are worth and if he can gather enough support from his aristocracy, he could decide to go his own way.

The second is that Desnairian privateers are still making a nuisance of themselves. That might permit Marhys to claim that Desnair is still supporting the Jihad even without an army in the field. The downside to that is that cleaning up and rebuilding after the ironclads call is expensive all by itself.

So...we shall see.

Don

n7axw wrote:Could someone repost the link for that Raw Meat for the Speculators post that RFC put out there a while back? We have a new group of posters who would find those population figures useful and I don't have access to the link right now...

Don

Is this what you wanted, Don?

I'm not going to give away any details about what actually happens, but if you're going to speculate on what may happen in the next book, let's toss out a few numbers — some of which you already had, many of which you didn't — which are going to constrain what both sides can do.

First of all, the isthmus connecting Haven and East Howard is, at its narrowest, 252 miles across. That's a fairly long front to hold in a continuous line.

Second, a few sea distances:
Tellesberg to Siddar City:..................8,000+ miles
Port Royal to Siddar City:..................9,830+ miles
Port Royal to Gorath Bay:..................14,270+ miles
Border States to Siddar City:...............2,400+ miles

Third, available shipping tonnages (burden; short tons):
Total Safeholdian oceanic tonnage......4,900,000 tons (rounded)
Total Charisian oceanic tonnage........3,580,000 tons (rounded)
Food required per day per man.............3 pounds
Food required per day per horse..........30 pounds
Food required per day per dragon........580 pounds

Total Safeholdian oceanic galleons: 4,162
Total Charisian oceanic galleons: 2,753

Charis has a lot more coastal shipping and a lot less canal shipping than the mainland realms.

NOTE: the fact that someone has oceanic galleons doesn't necessarily mean those galleons can get to sea and survive there.

Fourth, population numbers (rounded to nearest million):
Chisholm.....................15,000,000
Corisande....................15,000,000
Emerald.......................9,000,000
Old Charis...................14,000,000
Tarot........................11,000,000
Windswept Island................150,000
Zebediah......................8,000,000

Border States...............102,000,000
Delferahk....................83,000,000
Desnair.....................148,000,000
Dohlar.......................97,000,000
Follos, Duchy...................463,000
Harchong....................194,000,000
Siddarmark..................130,000,000
Silkiah......................46,000,000
Sodar........................37,000,000
Temple Lands.................89,000,000

Barren Lands*.................1,000,000
Raven's Land....................123,000
Trellheim.....................3,000,000
*Includes Green Tree Island and Westbreak Island.


Fifth, troop strengths:

Siddarmark's pre-Sword standing army: 1,200,000

Siddarmark's post-Sword standing army: 394,550
Siddarmark's post-Sword loyal militia: 496,420
Imperial Charisian Army: 450,000
Total post-Sword good guys: 1,340,970
Militia as % of total: 37%

Siddarmark post-sword Temple Loyalist militia: 473,900
Desnair + Dohlar invasion force: 360,000
Army of God invasion force: 500,000+
Harchong invasion force: 1,500,000+
Total post-Sword bad guys: 2,833,900
Milita as % of total: 16.7%

NOTE: the majority of the Imperial Charisian Army is in Chisholm (see voyage distances, above), and the Charisian Empire can't completely strip its rear areas of security forces (remember Corisande?).

Sustained daily movement rates by canal: 50+ miles per day.

@ Rahawkfan,thanks for the numbers though would mention that the isthmus is very rugged terrain, making it far easier to be blocked off. From the maps available it looks like only the coastline is a viable pathway through.

Forgot how densely populated Dohlar was (also Silkiah) though guess that is the advantage of year farming. That said for such a large population Dohlar has a pretty tiny army, makes me wonder if one of the reasons Duke Fern is concerned about the survival of Dohlar is due to some unmentioned internal issues.

Also related is question of whether the Foreign secretary Sir Zhorj Laikhyrst, Baron of Yellowstone the spymaster of Dohlar? He has to have some clout to be on a meeting where everyone else is part of the armed forces (Duke fern being the councilor also applies here given the way King Raynahld delegates authority)

In addition why was he so anxious over the inquisition's requests for the Charisian prisoners?

@ Jeffengel very nice response.

See only one hole in your argument if Desnair is in a position where the nobility see Clyntahn as less of a threat than angry peasants/disloyal lords if they lose any more of their military forces.

Dohlar is in a position where it has around 120,000 troops vs Duke Eastshare who has about 500,000. Now Eastshare cant send all into Dohlar due to the host of god and archangels but he will not need much to pin the host of god given their supply situation and the onset of winter. Winter did not stop Eastshare at all from ripping apart Bishop Militant Bahrnabai Wyrshy and this time around Siddarmark will have a much larger force in the field.

IMO Charis has the land forces available and nearby to crush Dohlar without the new battleships, given how poorly ALL temple loyalists forces have been gutted thus far I think Duke Fern sees that too. (thus the comments on the survival of Dohlar) Given the speed with which Desnair managed to go from being ardent supporters of the Jihad to concerned bystanders expecting Dohlar to be more loyal especially when they would have to be blind, deaf and dumb to not notice how suspicious Clyntahn is of Dohlar in general and how well he holds a grudge.

Get the feeling Clyntahn is about to be bitten hard by his policy of uncompromising ruthlessness.

As a side note on the map north of Dohlar is Sabana River, which appears to go into the Langhorne canal that the army of god and archangels is totally dependent on. Rainbow Waters and his nephew talk about this a fair amount, ANY threat or potential threat to that canal will threaten the destruction of the army of god and archangels. And keep in mind the deployment that Clyntahn has ordered, only a 1/3 to defend against Eastshare and the rest to secure his concentration camps, where the allies have control of rivers, canals and roads.

CJK wrote:@ Rahawkfan,thanks for the numbers though would mention that the isthmus is very rugged terrain, making it far easier to be blocked off. From the maps available it looks like only the coastline is a viable pathway through.

Forgot how densely populated Dohlar was (also Silkiah) though guess that is the advantage of year farming. That said for such a large population Dohlar has a pretty tiny army, makes me wonder if one of the reasons Duke Fern is concerned about the survival of Dohlar is due to some unmentioned internal issues.

All of Safehold's traditional armies have been small. Part of it is expense without an advanced economy and effective bureaucracy; part of it (related, really) is how many people you can't take off the land, especially if your agriculture is especially inefficient; and part of it has been, til OAR, a relative state of Pax Zion: the Temple can and will stop spats before they go too far, and as what amounted to a world government, it didn't much care for provinces fighting one another at all.

The biggest use for an army has been squashing peasant rebellions (Harchong, likely Desnair), separatists (Zebediah, as far as Corisande was concerned; likely parts of the Empires), or cheeky aristocrats (Chisholm, and probably the Empires too). Dohlar wasn't interested in competing on land with Siddarmark or Desnair; it was enough to look like too hard a nut to crack to be worth the effort. And they likely had much less peasant unrest than harsher places - it's sounded like Dohlar has been among the most progressive places on the mainland after Siddarmark and maybe Silkiah.

Also related is question of whether the Foreign secretary Sir Zhorj Laikhyrst, Baron of Yellowstone the spymaster of Dohlar? He has to have some clout to be on a meeting where everyone else is part of the armed forces (Duke fern being the councilor also applies here given the way King Raynahld delegates authority)

In addition why was he so anxious over the inquisition's requests for the Charisian prisoners?

Two obvious reasons: Dohlar has to worry about its standing with regard to Charis and Siddarmark, and it has to worry about its POW's treatment in their hands. If you're a Temple zealot, that's not the case: you're fighting the heretics to the death anyway, and expect your POW's to be killed no matter what. If you're not a zealot - and spymasters tend not to be - you have to think that you may need to conclude peace with the Allies under some terms some day and you don't want it worse than it has to be, and you're willing to accept that they treat POW's within the conventions of Safehold war... so far.

Ramhawkfan wrote:

n7axw wrote:Could someone repost the link for that Raw Meat for the Speculators post that RFC put out there a while back? We have a new group of posters who would find those population figures useful and I don't have access to the link right now...

Don

Is this what you wanted, Don?

I'm not going to give away any details about what actually happens, but if you're going to speculate on what may happen in the next book, let's toss out a few numbers — some of which you already had, many of which you didn't — which are going to constrain what both sides can do.

First of all, the isthmus connecting Haven and East Howard is, at its narrowest, 252 miles across. That's a fairly long front to hold in a continuous line.

Second, a few sea distances:
Tellesberg to Siddar City:..................8,000+ miles
Port Royal to Siddar City:..................9,830+ miles
Port Royal to Gorath Bay:..................14,270+ miles
Border States to Siddar City:...............2,400+ miles

Third, available shipping tonnages (burden; short tons):
Total Safeholdian oceanic tonnage......4,900,000 tons (rounded)
Total Charisian oceanic tonnage........3,580,000 tons (rounded)
Food required per day per man.............3 pounds
Food required per day per horse..........30 pounds
Food required per day per dragon........580 pounds

Total Safeholdian oceanic galleons: 4,162
Total Charisian oceanic galleons: 2,753

Charis has a lot more coastal shipping and a lot less canal shipping than the mainland realms.

NOTE: the fact that someone has oceanic galleons doesn't necessarily mean those galleons can get to sea and survive there.

Fourth, population numbers (rounded to nearest million):
Chisholm.....................15,000,000
Corisande....................15,000,000
Emerald.......................9,000,000
Old Charis...................14,000,000
Tarot........................11,000,000
Windswept Island................150,000
Zebediah......................8,000,000

Border States...............102,000,000
Delferahk....................83,000,000
Desnair.....................148,000,000
Dohlar.......................97,000,000
Follos, Duchy...................463,000
Harchong....................194,000,000
Siddarmark..................130,000,000
Silkiah......................46,000,000
Sodar........................37,000,000
Temple Lands.................89,000,000

Barren Lands*.................1,000,000
Raven's Land....................123,000
Trellheim.....................3,000,000
*Includes Green Tree Island and Westbreak Island.


Fifth, troop strengths:

Siddarmark's pre-Sword standing army: 1,200,000

Siddarmark's post-Sword standing army: 394,550
Siddarmark's post-Sword loyal militia: 496,420
Imperial Charisian Army: 450,000
Total post-Sword good guys: 1,340,970
Militia as % of total: 37%

Siddarmark post-sword Temple Loyalist militia: 473,900
Desnair + Dohlar invasion force: 360,000
Army of God invasion force: 500,000+
Harchong invasion force: 1,500,000+
Total post-Sword bad guys: 2,833,900
Milita as % of total: 16.7%

NOTE: the majority of the Imperial Charisian Army is in Chisholm (see voyage distances, above), and the Charisian Empire can't completely strip its rear areas of security forces (remember Corisande?).

Sustained daily movement rates by canal: 50+ miles per day.

Exactly. Should eliminate some guess work on the part of our newer posters. Just good hositality, after all. Thanks.

Don

>Get the feeling Clyntahn is about to be bitten hard by his policy of uncompromising ruthlessness

Clyntahn reminds me of a story, supposedly from Earth's history.

A general was unavoidably late for a meeting with the emperor. The penalty for being late was death.

The general was then presented with a situation in which he had nothing to lose and everything to gain by starting a rebellion.