Merlin can't assassinate Clyntahn.

Expert snuggler wrote:Wouldn't it be an ironic twist if someone was about to off Clyntahn and Merlin had to step in for strategic reasons and save his life?

ouch! that would be nasty

Ummmmm SPOILER WARNINGS!





Oh heck no. Assassinating Clyntahn at this point would be terrible. That man is a poster boy for uniting everybody against the COGA. He's the epitome of everything wrong and the longer he exerts an influence the more people are going to see the evil in the system. Killing Duchairn and Magwair is a far more effective plot. They are competent and can be viewed as a restraining influence. Knock them off and all kinds of things start going wrong.Clyntahn would try to direct the Host directly and the generals in it would either rebel or lose badly as they start being ordered to commit assaults that are just poorly advised. The economy goes to pieces, the wheels come off the bus fast at that point. Heck one more bad defeat and Clyntahn might bump themselves off himself.

And you know over the winter, the combination of a reinforced Charisian Army out of Thesmar with Eastshares army should provide such a major defeat to Dohlarian Army forces that perhaps Ahlverez, Gardynyr, and the Duke of Fern can engineer a change of position that moves Dohlar into the same category as Desnair or even a neutrality where they round up and return the inquisitors to Zion (or dump their bodies in the bay) and declare they are out of the Jihad (while not actually aligning with Charis). If they do it, Silkiah will probably do it too, and then the continent of Howard is effectively isolated and out of the fight. At that point Clyntahn would probably decide that he's had enough and personally take charge of the Jihad, placing the other Three in the Group of Four under arrest for failing to do their duty to the Jihad and takes charge himself, with disastrous consequences (for his side.)


Wraps the story line up faster doesn't it? Two books tops I think.

Larry

Speaking of Silkiah, one can really question if they are in the Jihad....

They have no army or navy. They have to some extent been manufacturing arms for the Temple side. But I doubt that they are all that happy about it. Sinse their demilitarized status has been suspended, they are subject to being on whoevers side who manages to overrun them.

I suspect that when the allies show up, it will be as liberators, not conquerors.

Don

Tonto Silerheels wrote:Actually, I'm overstating the case in order be provocative, but it's occurred to me that Merlin can't assassinate Clyntahn; he doesn't know what Clyntahn looks like. There's no photography on Safehold, and Merlin has never had a SNARC on him because he always stays within the Temple confines where SNARCs mustn't go. If Clyntahn pulls a Prince and the Pauper then there's little risk Merlin can shoot him. Similarly, if Clyntahn uses a double who leaves the Temple, then Merlin would be completely deceived.

The only way out I can see is if Clyntahn has had really good portraits made by painters, or perhaps a sculpture by a sculptor. Other than that, Clyntahn's safe.

~Tonto

Actually they do..Denys execution.(dang for got how to spell his name) they have the view from the court of martyrs where all of charsis people were put to the question (the ones that were captured the first time by thirsk)

they wont put a snark in there.. but they have no issues watching from a distance via some sorta zoom

n7axw wrote:Speaking of Silkiah, one can really question if they are in the Jihad....

They have no army or navy. They have to some extent been manufacturing arms for the Temple side. But I doubt that they are all that happy about it. Sinse their demilitarized status has been suspended, they are subject to being on whoevers side who manages to overrun them.

I suspect that when the allies show up, it will be as liberators, not conquerors.

Don

I think the biggest surprise for me in HFQ was not yet seeing that Allied army in Silkiah, and a measurable surprise was not yet seeing one in Dohlar or the ICN off Dohlaran shores. It's one thing that makes me wonder if the Allies aren't actually planning on letting Silkiah and Dohlar leave the jihad on their own initiative after "merely" pruning far back the Temple's ability to do anything about such a move.

For that matter, though it's a cynical Plan B and so not quite what you'd expect of Cayleb or Sharleyan, if Silkiak or Dohlar try to leave and are stopped by the Inquisition, that kind of naked foreign coup would mean that Allied armies would be all the more identified as liberators. So they win with a successful revolution against Temple authority, and they win with a failed revolution against it too.

Delferahk's treatment by Charis is probably meant as, and taken as, a lesson for other Temple-loyal states by Charis. Interfere with our trade - yours gets hosed. Let the Inquisition use you for atrocities - get a whole lot of property damage and watch the Inquisitors hang. After all that, we're square. Have mostly a bystander's role when the Inquisition tries to kill people in your care - have mostly a bystander's role when we stop them.

Siddarmark may not have quite the same cheerfulness letting bygones be bygones. For one, it suffered a whole lot worse in the Sword of Schueler; for another, things are different when you live next to the offenders instead of across an ocean. But they do seem aware that atrocious reprisals breed atrocious counter-reprisals and their officers are making an effort to tamp down on that and see about de-escalating as much as the troops and people will tolerate. And they do need Charis and feel plenty of affection and gratitude, and so there's pressure not to drag Charis off in darker directions than they'd care to go. (Much as there is Charisian sentiment understanding Siddarmark's position.)

Put together though, the Allies seem to be willing to punch enemy nations - which won't include the Vicarate - only as much as it takes to make them stop being obnoxious. Maybe that policy could include the Vicarate too, but the amount of punching it'd take to stop Zhaspyr Clyntahn from being obnoxious is fatal and then some.

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:Speaking of Silkiah, one can really question if they are in the Jihad....

They have no army or navy. They have to some extent been manufacturing arms for the Temple side. But I doubt that they are all that happy about it. Sinse their demilitarized status has been suspended, they are subject to being on whoevers side who manages to overrun them.

I suspect that when the allies show up, it will be as liberators, not conquerors.

Don

I think the biggest surprise for me in HFQ was not yet seeing that Allied army in Silkiah, and a measurable surprise was not yet seeing one in Dohlar or the ICN off Dohlaran shores. It's one thing that makes me wonder if the Allies aren't actually planning on letting Silkiah and Dohlar leave the jihad on their own initiative after "merely" pruning far back the Temple's ability to do anything about such a move.

For that matter, though it's a cynical Plan B and so not quite what you'd expect of Cayleb or Sharleyan, if Silkiak or Dohlar try to leave and are stopped by the Inquisition, that kind of naked foreign coup would mean that Allied armies would be all the more identified as liberators. So they win with a successful revolution against Temple authority, and they win with a failed revolution against it too.

Delferahk's treatment by Charis is probably meant as, and taken as, a lesson for other Temple-loyal states by Charis. Interfere with our trade - yours gets hosed. Let the Inquisition use you for atrocities - get a whole lot of property damage and watch the Inquisitors hang. After all that, we're square. Have mostly a bystander's role when the Inquisition tries to kill people in your care - have mostly a bystander's role when we stop them.

Siddarmark may not have quite the same cheerfulness letting bygones be bygones. For one, it suffered a whole lot worse in the Sword of Schueler; for another, things are different when you live next to the offenders instead of across an ocean. But they do seem aware that atrocious reprisals breed atrocious counter-reprisals and their officers are making an effort to tamp down on that and see about de-escalating as much as the troops and people will tolerate. And they do need Charis and feel plenty of affection and gratitude, and so there's pressure not to drag Charis off in darker directions than they'd care to go. (Much as there is Charisian sentiment understanding Siddarmark's position.)

Put together though, the Allies seem to be willing to punch enemy nations - which won't include the Vicarate - only as much as it takes to make them stop being obnoxious. Maybe that policy could include the Vicarate too, but the amount of punching it'd take to stop Zhaspyr Clyntahn from being obnoxious is fatal and then some.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dohlar dealt with in the first half of the next book. For one thing we do have that big MHOG army headed south and the allies can't really afford to have Dohlar unneutralized in their rear.

The second thing is that we know that another pair of Rottweilers are on their way to the Gulf. Also, judging from the same textev where we learn that the Rottweilers are being dispatched, we also learn that the Cities are probably going to be headed for the Gulf. That means that Dohlar's place on the priority list is being moved toward the top.

Finally as we saw in that last scene in HFQ, the situation with Thirsk is coming to a head. The safest thing for Thirsk would be to remove him to safety, but for a whole host of reasons including tension in the plot, I doubt that will be the way it goes. Either Dohlar surrenders, or has a policy change that includes renouncing Zion's authority and getting rid of its inquisitors, or Thirsk ends up dead.

So when it's all added up, I believe that Dohlar is about to be dealt with...one way or the other.

Don

Larry wrote:Ummmmm SPOILER WARNINGS!

Oh heck no. Assassinating Clyntahn at this point would be terrible. That man is a poster boy for uniting everybody against the COGA. He's the epitome of everything wrong and the longer he exerts an influence the more people are going to see the evil in the system. Killing Duchairn and Magwair is a far more effective plot. They are competent and can be viewed as a restraining influence. Knock them off and all kinds of things start going wrong.Clyntahn would try to direct the Host directly and the generals in it would either rebel or lose badly as they start being ordered to commit assaults that are just poorly advised. The economy goes to pieces, the wheels come off the bus fast at that point. Heck one more bad defeat and Clyntahn might bump themselves off himself.

And you know over the winter, the combination of a reinforced Charisian Army out of Thesmar with Eastshares army should provide such a major defeat to Dohlarian Army forces that perhaps Ahlverez, Gardynyr, and the Duke of Fern can engineer a change of position that moves Dohlar into the same category as Desnair or even a neutrality where they round up and return the inquisitors to Zion (or dump their bodies in the bay) and declare they are out of the Jihad (while not actually aligning with Charis). If they do it, Silkiah will probably do it too, and then the continent of Howard is effectively isolated and out of the fight. At that point Clyntahn would probably decide that he's had enough and personally take charge of the Jihad, placing the other Three in the Group of Four under arrest for failing to do their duty to the Jihad and takes charge himself, with disastrous consequences (for his side.)


Wraps the story line up faster doesn't it? Two books tops I think.

Larry

I wouldn't be too sure that Clyntahn can be easily replaced at this point anymore. He has become the 800 lb gorilla at the temple at this point. removing him will create an incredibly huge power vacuum at the very top of the COGA. The power struggle as others try to become top dog is bound to create major confusion and seriously hamper the Jihad. Particularly if he is removed in a spectacular fashion.

These days the temple has become a powder keg and Clyntahn's preferred method of keeping control has always been to publicly feed victims to the inquisition in the Plaza of Martyrs.

I keep imagining the effect of someone demonstrating some of the Coga's new rockets in the plaza during one of Clyntahn's public executions. It could effectively remove the top 2 to 3 layers of the COGA management. Something like that would rather severely effect the GOGA's ability to prosecute the Jihad.

An additional effect would be that any nations less then please with being forced to help with the Jihad may start to rethink their commitment to it without Clyntahn to worry about.

n7axw wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see Dohlar dealt with in the first half of the next book. For one thing we do have that big MHOG army headed south and the allies can't really afford to have Dohlar unneutralized in their rear.

The second thing is that we know that another pair of Rottweilers are on their way to the Gulf. Also, judging from the same textev where we learn that the Rottweilers are being dispatched, we also learn that the Cities are probably going to be headed for the Gulf. That means that Dohlar's place on the priority list is being moved toward the top.

Finally as we saw in that last scene in HFQ, the situation with Thirsk is coming to a head. The safest thing for Thirsk would be to remove him to safety, but for a whole host of reasons including tension in the plot, I doubt that will be the way it goes. Either Dohlar surrenders, or has a policy change that includes renouncing Zion's authority and getting rid of its inquisitors, or Thirsk ends up dead.

So when it's all added up, I believe that Dohlar is about to be dealt with...one way or the other.

Don

2/3's of the MHOG is currently camped out at Lake City and the remaining 1/3 is somewhat south of Lake city as a counter to Eastshare. There are no Harchongese forces anywhere near Dohlar that we know about.

n7axw wrote:Toward the end of HFQ, he has a confrontation with Maigwair in the square of martyrs, so he does make it out once in a while.

In addition, he does make it over to that location where the punishment is applied which can't be on Temple premises since Merlin was able to get a snarc in to watch what happened to Manthyr.

I've wondered about a sniper on a rooftop myself. Merlin wouldn't even have to do it. You could use a squad of scout snipers....although having Mab involved would up the ante all around, wouldn't it?

Don

Another option would be to use some of the COGA's new rockets and take out Clyntahn along with everyone else that was participating in the latest inquistion execution. I seem to recall that the victims were the last participants to arrrive. So a rocket attack before thy were brought out might actually save them.

Spoiler

n7axw wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see Dohlar dealt with in the first half of the next book. For one thing we do have that big MHOG army headed south and the allies can't really afford to have Dohlar unneutralized in their rear.

The second thing is that we know that another pair of Rottweilers are on their way to the Gulf. Also, judging from the same textev where we learn that the Rottweilers are being dispatched, we also learn that the Cities are probably going to be headed for the Gulf. That means that Dohlar's place on the priority list is being moved toward the top.

Finally as we saw in that last scene in HFQ, the situation with Thirsk is coming to a head. The safest thing for Thirsk would be to remove him to safety, but for a whole host of reasons including tension in the plot, I doubt that will be the way it goes. Either Dohlar surrenders, or has a policy change that includes renouncing Zion's authority and getting rid of its inquisitors, or Thirsk ends up dead.

So when it's all added up, I believe that Dohlar is about to be dealt with...one way or the other.

Don

Dohlar will likely face the RSA backed by Hanth. That is bad news indeed for the RDA. Charis didn't have the southern part of their nation ravaged by the Army of Justice. At the same time, Silkiah will have quite the opposite reaction to facing the RSA rather than Charisians. After all they were the only nation to follow Siddermark's lead in "flagging" Charisian merchantmen. So the setting up the RSA to blood themselves against Dohlar and manage Silkiah is a wise use of the Allies' troops.

As I recall the RSA is set to add another 750,000 troops and the ICA is adding another 200,000 or so by Spring 898. Most of the RSA troopers will likely be armed with Mahndrayns and Trapdoors with the muzzle loaders and the St. Kylmyns being handed down to militia units. The Allies will have something on the order of 1.5 million men armed to fight the MHoGatA's between 2-4 million moving up the Bedard and Langehorn canals.

If the MHoG commander is smart, which he is, the MHoG units trailing his vanguard will create defensible positions while they move towards the front. By the time the 898 campaign season begins, the MHoG should have several well established fall back positions constructed. By the end of the HFQ, the MHoG has given up everything east of Lake City and south of St. Vyrdyn. The Allies might not have gained control of those cities yet, but nothing significant is there defending those cities. As Winter rolls in the Allies will move to take those cities and establish their front as the line between Salyk and the Daivyn following the Hildermoss.

Meanwhile the RSA will have taken Dairnyth and gained access to the Bay of Bess and the northern coast of Dohlar for their River class. It might take all winter to repair potential damage to the locks and canals, but by the summer campaign season the Rivers will be loose in the Gulf of Tanshar. The City Class won't make it until about April or May 898, since they have to take sufficient colliers around Howard to make it to the Gulf of Dohlar. The KH VIIs will get there about the same time sailing directly from Telesberg and crossing the Great Western Ocean.

Assuming that the delay to the initial KH VIIs completion allows the remaining hulls to be finished before the KH VII is sent to the Gulf of Dohlar, then the intial 3 KH VIIs can be sent while the remaining hulls can be completed and assigned to protect the home waters and cow the Desnari if need be. The Gulf of Dohlar will then host between 4-7 steam powered ocean going ironclads with several River class boats for good measure.

Those ships will mean that any Border Kingdom port city's along the Gulf of Tanshar connected by river to the Bedard canal as well as any Dohlaran port city will be reduced to rubble. Well not completely rubble, but certainly have their capacity to transship large amounts of supplies destroyed. If those King Haarald's also brought with them trained troops, the MHoGatA must hold back a reserve just in case those ICA troops take the Port City connected to the Lake Pei Canal and flank the entire MHoG offensive. To that end, I suspect Gahrvai will be coming to the party with the KH VIIs and bringing along some friends. I am guessing 50,000-75,000 troops to eventually take Jack's Land, where the RDN has their Western squadron.

So, come April or May Dohlar will face this avalanche of destruction headed their way from all sides. Their Eastern front will have between 300,000-400,000 RSA troops with blood in their eyes and armed with better equipment than the RDA. From the West come the shoals of ICN ships with a core of city busting steam ironclads and enough troops to ravage their coastline more thoroughly than the Army of Justice could ravage Siddermark. The only question I see is just how many cities will be destroyed before Rahnahld abdicates in favor of his son and a regency council?

Those 75,000 or so ICA troops soon to be in Jack's Land will threaten not only Zion but also Northern Harchong. If the ICA decides to go a roving along the Harchong coast, those cities are toast. Worse, if the ICN decides to send in ships with ex-prisoners from the NoG to spread the news of just how "well" the jihad is going, there will be unrest in the home front. How happy will the Harchong Aristocrats be to support sending more troops and resources away from this emerging threat to their homes? If on top of that the ex-POWs also offer options for Harchong serfs to escape to Charis and get their own land in Silverlode Island. Their land not to be tied to, but to own themselves. How much unrest might be engendered by such tactics? How quickly will Harchong's support of the jihad evaporate?

I am not sure if RFC will go for the psyops, but I believe that's how the distribution of troops will be made leading to the campaign season of 898.