HFQ Thoughts/reflections SPOILERS

If he is not doing anything to get in the way, why bother couping him? Give him the right opportunity and he'll abdictate.

The power center seems to be the Royal Council. Fern seems to be competent and workking for Dohlar's interests. Thorast and Salthar seem to be problem children.

I wonder if an EOC invasion or at least seizing the capital from the sea might be in Dohlar's best interests. Clean out the inquisition and let Dohlar's government govern in Dohlar's interests, not Zion's.

Don

n7axw wrote:If he is not doing anything to get in the way, why bother couping him? Give him the right opportunity and he'll abdictate.

The power center seems to be the Royal Council. Fern seems to be competent and workking for Dohlar's interests. Thorast and Salthar seem to be problem children.

I wonder if an EOC invasion or at least seizing the capital from the sea might be in Dohlar's best interests. Clean out the inquisition and let Dohlar's government govern in Dohlar's interests, not Zion's.

Don

The problem with a theoretically ruling king who isn't is that it's hard to count on whoever is exercising power to keep it: they're doing so on the sufferance of someone whose whims may vary at any time, under any influence. As for abdication, a regency council is, for one thing, just a placeholder, and for another, it ends with the ascension of a very young king, who may take the direction of the state goodness knows where.

Corisande is managing that in fair part because it's now integrated into a larger political entity that can assure stability, and with the encouragement of taking Parliament seriously. Dohlar isn't likely to have the former advantage - it may, in case of a switch of sides, ally with Charis and Siddarmark; it's not in a position to submit to either of them and retain a government that commands respect. It may be able to establish a respectable central government in which the monarchy plays a minimal role.

Dohlar could use an abdication by Rahnahld as a fine time to transition to a constitutional monarchy with the reigning monarch being at least balanced by a multi-chamber legislature and possibly reduced outright to a mere formal head of state. The young king won't come in with excessive expectations; the old king would no longer be in place to suffer from them; and the transitional nature of a regency would cover the transition of government form.

I do think the threat of the EoC is necessary to help motivate Dohlaran rejection of Zion, but invasion and destruction may leave the Dohlaran government without enough authority to make a transition in government form or alliances. Desnair is able to practice "internal desertion" from the jihad by claiming (seriously) sheer incapacity, but Desnair's central government is risking becoming a joke doing so and the Empire is too likely to disintegrate, or at least lose the ability to function as a unified entity. That's something Dohlar would certainly want to avoid, and so far, it can still do so. It could leave the jihad now from a position of (relative) strength and pride, claiming - rightly, if incompletely - moral repugnance for what the Church out of Zion has become. If the army cannot keep the invaders out, if the navy cannot command the Gorath shoreline, Dohlar's central government loses that authority.

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:If he is not doing anything to get in the way, why bother couping him? Give him the right opportunity and he'll abdictate.

The power center seems to be the Royal Council. Fern seems to be competent and workking for Dohlar's interests. Thorast and Salthar seem to be problem children.

I wonder if an EOC invasion or at least seizing the capital from the sea might be in Dohlar's best interests. Clean out the inquisition and let Dohlar's government govern in Dohlar's interests, not Zion's.

Don

The problem with a theoretically ruling king who isn't is that it's hard to count on whoever is exercising power to keep it: they're doing so on the sufferance of someone whose whims may vary at any time, under any influence. As for abdication, a regency council is, for one thing, just a placeholder, and for another, it ends with the ascension of a very young king, who may take the direction of the state goodness knows where.

Corisande is managing that in fair part because it's now integrated into a larger political entity that can assure stability, and with the encouragement of taking Parliament seriously. Dohlar isn't likely to have the former advantage - it may, in case of a switch of sides, ally with Charis and Siddarmark; it's not in a position to submit to either of them and retain a government that commands respect. It may be able to establish a respectable central government in which the monarchy plays a minimal role.

Dohlar could use an abdication by Rahnahld as a fine time to transition to a constitutional monarchy with the reigning monarch being at least balanced by a multi-chamber legislature and possibly reduced outright to a mere formal head of state. The young king won't come in with excessive expectations; the old king would no longer be in place to suffer from them; and the transitional nature of a regency would cover the transition of government form.

I do think the threat of the EoC is necessary to help motivate Dohlaran rejection of Zion, but invasion and destruction may leave the Dohlaran government without enough authority to make a transition in government form or alliances. Desnair is able to practice "internal desertion" from the jihad by claiming (seriously) sheer incapacity, but Desnair's central government is risking becoming a joke doing so and the Empire is too likely to disintegrate, or at least lose the ability to function as a unified entity. That's something Dohlar would certainly want to avoid, and so far, it can still do so. It could leave the jihad now from a position of (relative) strength and pride, claiming - rightly, if incompletely - moral repugnance for what the Church out of Zion has become. If the army cannot keep the invaders out, if the navy cannot command the Gorath shoreline, Dohlar's central government loses that authority.

Nice post, Jeff. I really don't disagree with any of it.

I would however point out that as long as they are subjected to inquisition baby sitters, Dohlar's government doesn't have that authority now. Consider that discussion as to what to do with the latest batch of prisoners. The Royal Council didn't make that decision on the basis of Dohlar's best interests. It was really a case of "mother, may I" and mother said no.

And we know it's coming. The ironclads are coming and Dohlar will lose control of it's shoreline. And Hanth is approaching Dohlar's border. What I'm saying is that may well not turn out all bad for Dohlar.

Don

Clyntahn won't accept them being Finlandized.

n7axw wrote:Nice post, Jeff. I really don't disagree with any of it.

I would however point out that as long as they are subjected to inquisition baby sitters, Dohlar's government doesn't have that authority now. Consider that discussion as to what to do with the latest batch of prisoners. The Royal Council didn't make that decision on the basis of Dohlar's best interests. It was really a case of "mother, may I" and mother said no.

The power of the Inquisition is exactly as much as people give it. When they love and respect Mother Church, they'll support her cheerfully and voluntarily. When they don't, it's down to fear, and the Inquisition generally taps secular forces when it needs muscle. So if you're in secure control of the secular forces, and none of your people love and respect the Inquisition, all you need is a shift in perspective to neutralize them. It's a profound shift of perspective, and there's a lot of reason to fear others won't go along with you. But desperation and disgust can make serious shifts palatable - witness what Clyntahn has done to Thirsk's devotion over seven years. And when your cabal includes this much of the respected navy, army, nobility, and priesthood, you may have reason for confidence that people will go along.

There's a lot more Dohlar's government can do, I think, than it yet realizes. Bishop Maik and Thirsk are both thinking outside that box already.

And we know it's coming. The ironclads are coming and Dohlar will lose control of it's shoreline. And Hanth is approaching Dohlar's border. What I'm saying is that may well not turn out all bad for Dohlar.

Don

It might not, no. I do think that it's likely to go better for Dohlar the more it can play out as Dohlar's decisions and actions about Dohlaran future and identity. There could still be some of that under occupation - to the extent Charis and Siddarmark can even pull that off.

It makes me wonder - This campaign season could have had Gorath pressured badly at sea instead of Harchong, and Rychtair could have been overrun instead of herded back west. Maybe the Allied plan isn't to invade and occupy/liberate Dohlar or Silkiah at all, but instead to defend and reclaim Siddarmark and foster the conditions for Silkiahan revolution and Dohlaran defection from Zion. If you can't practically occupy a place anyway, you want to deal with it in a way that doesn't take an invasion. The Allies are effectively leaving Dohlar and Silkiah, Desnair and Delferahk to call their own shots with regard to the Temple and its armies - combined with eliminating their ability to mess with Charis or Siddarmark anymore. Maybe there's an actual plan behind that to get them all to defect or drop out, the way Delferahk effectively has and Desnair is doing.

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:Nice post, Jeff. I really don't disagree with any of it.

I would however point out that as long as they are subjected to inquisition baby sitters, Dohlar's government doesn't have that authority now. Consider that discussion as to what to do with the latest batch of prisoners. The Royal Council didn't make that decision on the basis of Dohlar's best interests. It was really a case of "mother, may I" and mother said no.

The power of the Inquisition is exactly as much as people give it. When they love and respect Mother Church, they'll support her cheerfully and voluntarily. When they don't, it's down to fear, and the Inquisition generally taps secular forces when it needs muscle. So if you're in secure control of the secular forces, and none of your people love and respect the Inquisition, all you need is a shift in perspective to neutralize them. It's a profound shift of perspective, and there's a lot of reason to fear others won't go along with you. But desperation and disgust can make serious shifts palatable - witness what Clyntahn has done to Thirsk's devotion over seven years. And when your cabal includes this much of the respected navy, army, nobility, and priesthood, you may have reason for confidence that people will go along.

There's a lot more Dohlar's government can do, I think, than it yet realizes. Bishop Maik and Thirsk are both thinking outside that box already.

And we know it's coming. The ironclads are coming and Dohlar will lose control of it's shoreline. And Hanth is approaching Dohlar's border. What I'm saying is that may well not turn out all bad for Dohlar.

Don

It might not, no. I do think that it's likely to go better for Dohlar the more it can play out as Dohlar's decisions and actions about Dohlaran future and identity. There could still be some of that under occupation - to the extent Charis and Siddarmark can even pull that off.

It makes me wonder - This campaign season could have had Gorath pressured badly at sea instead of Harchong, and Rychtair could have been overrun instead of herded back west. Maybe the Allied plan isn't to invade and occupy/liberate Dohlar or Silkiah at all, but instead to defend and reclaim Siddarmark and foster the conditions for Silkiahan revolution and Dohlaran defection from Zion. If you can't practically occupy a place anyway, you want to deal with it in a way that doesn't take an invasion. The Allies are effectively leaving Dohlar and Silkiah, Desnair and Delferahk to call their own shots with regard to the Temple and its armies - combined with eliminating their ability to mess with Charis or Siddarmark anymore. Maybe there's an actual plan behind that to get them all to defect or drop out, the way Delferahk effectively has and Desnair is doing.

I don't think poor old Zhames ever wanted in the game. I think he was pretty much a victim throughout.

I doubt that such a plan exists. The ironclads will arrive and assume effective control of the Gulf of Dohlar. Hanth may be forced to deal with the MHOG, hopefully after being substantially reinforced.

I suspect that rather than a plan, what we are looking at here if more a matter of prioritizing threats with more dangerous ones dealt with first.

Don

Expert snuggler wrote:Clyntahn won't accept them being Finlandized.

Jeff is right to point out that Dohlar probably can do more about that than it realizes. Getting Dohlar to realize that will be the trick.

Clyntahn may well not be able to do much about the situation.

Don

Two thought lines.

1. Why destroy the captured ironclad?
The only new item on it is the strength of the armor and that will take years to develop the capability to manufacture. Improving tech is a strategic goal...

2. Alvarez and his surviving 20,000. How many times in history has a returning defeated army, loyal to their commander, lead a coup? Letting them return adds to disaffection in Dohlar.
Plus, the troops to stop this small force would have had to be detached from the much bigger fish they went after - and would have been drawing on the limited supply line from Theismar. They would have stopped the same place as Hanith for that reason.
Better to let them escape...

As is the limits of logistics and manf have stopped the lines about where expected in this book.

Third thought: If Dohlar has a coup and drops out of the Jihad, then the KH VIIs are available for a coup de main on the Temple...

End game for this phase.

Just finished the book yesterday and a couple of thoughts;

1. The land war seems to be setting up to emulate the Western Front of WWI.

2. I'm waiting for Koryn Gahrvai to lead an army from Corisande to break the back of the Go4.

3. Maigwair is reminding me so Khumalo from the Honorverse series. Seemed inept at the beginning but the situations they have found themselves has allowed them to the leaders they could be. I'm not even sure that Maigwair believes in the Jihad anymore.

OJsDad wrote:Just finished the book yesterday and a couple of thoughts;

1. The land war seems to be setting up to emulate the Western Front of WWI.

That comparison may not go too far. I don't see a trench line stretching from Hsing-Wu's Passage to the Gulf of Dohlar to put a brake on mobile operations; if there were, it wouldn't have transport systems behind the lines to move reinforcements rapidly to areas with breakthroughs going on to stop them; and the opportunities for amphibious landings along all that shoreline would remain. The American Civil War comparison is still more apt, operationally and politically.

2. I'm waiting for Koryn Gahrvai to lead an army from Corisande to break the back of the Go4.

3. Maigwair is reminding me so Khumalo from the Honorverse series. Seemed inept at the beginning but the situations they have found themselves has allowed them to the leaders they could be. I'm not even sure that Maigwair believes in the Jihad anymore.

I'm not sure he's yet faced up to what it is about. He's grown in competence, leadership and confidence - it's not clear he's grown in imagination, or if he's looking up away from all the details to comprehend what winning or losing would entail.

Clyntahn knows what it would mean very well, but that's so horrific for anyone else on the Temple side that, if they're not simply a moral vacuum like Rayno, they're not looking at that if they can possibly avoid it. Duchairn's painfully aware of what losing the jihad would cost: the unity of Mother Church on Safehold, God's voice speaking only in discordant multitudes, and the permanent possibility of jihad everywhere. But he's apparently been refusing to consider what winning the jihad means: Safehold according to Clyntahn, a third of Haven turned into a concentration camp, the depopulation of the Out Islands, the rule of fear forever everywhere.

Duchairn and Magwair are both failing in their responsibilities by not facing those terms without flinching away, but given their place, given how little confidence they ought to have that they could bring it down to any soft landing, given how terrible the dilemma is, it's an understandable failure.