Safehold 9 snippet request

jtg452 wrote:

jgnfld wrote:SPOILER



























Morale is definitely cracking. Once morale breaks, a fall can be quite quick.

Yup.
I think 3 things need to happen in a fairly short time frame.

Kill Clyntahn (somebody's going to cap him- whether it's Caleb, Avah, one of the Go4, or Raynno is the $64,000 question), rout the Harchongese, and take out their last navy. Have that happen in rapid succession and the thing will fall to pieces.

There's no money to build another army in the Temple Lands. There's no arms to arm another army in the Temple Lands or anywhere else. They are shipping the new arms to the front line formations pretty much as soon as they can make it, so there's no reserve. Where are they going to get another couple hundred thousand rifles and the corresponding artillery even if they can raise and train (and house and clothe and feed) the men?

There's 3 major allies to the Temple Lands (secular) left- the Harchongese are already in the field and the other two couldn't field a decent force (much less a real field army) if you combine them- and they have to worry about Hanth, who basically sitting in their own front yard, so I don't see either one letting what little land power they have left even stick a toe over their borders. The Dolharians had, what, maybe 40K troops make it home? The other guys (Defelkians or whatever) didn't get more than a tithe of that back. Those are broken formations and useless in the field. I'm not sure I'd trust most of them to even be training cadre after the 'scare' that was put into them.

If the timing's right, there would be no time to recruit and train one either. If they break what's in the field now in the spring, it could become a foot race to Zion.



But then again, I've been wrong a whole lot more than I've been right when it comes to what's happening next.

I believe some of those "Dohlarans" that made it back to Dohlar were actually ~10k Desnairans that had linked up and stayed with Ahlverez. I don't think any of the Desnairan army has made it back to Desnair - most of those who weren't captured were with Ahlverez and fell back to Dohlar, some fled to Kaitswyrth (Hennet, at least - that Desnairan cavalry commander who booked it early when the hammer started coming down), so they're probably dead or captured now.
Delferahk is the place that Irys, Daivyn, and Coris were extracted from. Also the country where Ferayd once stood, before, y'know, Charis (Admiral Rock Point) burned everything within two miles of the waterfront after the Ferayd Massacre. The King of Delferahk is related by marriage to Irys and Daivyn (a cousin or second cousin, IIRC), and some as yet unclarified "cousin" blood relationship to Rayno, although probably somewhat distant, since Rayno's family is North Harchongese aristocrats. And Delferahk is a military non-entity.

Delferahk, Dohlar, Desnair,... It's six of one, a half a dozen of the other. Close enough for government work.

They all 3 start with a 'D', all three have spellings that are too hard figure out how to pronounce when reading, they are all on the wrong side and Charis has stomped a mud hole where two of their armies used to be.

One stands out because it actually has a navy- that's competent, thanks to Thirsk- and a land forces commander, Alhverez, that has found enlightenment as well. He's smart enough to know that he was out thought and out generaled before he got out maneuvered and out fought.

And the point stands, right now, you couldn't get a decent field force out of the [i]three[i] of them, much less the two that are supposedly actively taking part in the war.

jtg452 wrote:Delferahk, Dohlar, Desnair,... It's six of one, a half a dozen of the other. Close enough for government work.

They all 3 start with a 'D', all three have spellings that are too hard figure out how to pronounce when reading, they are all on the wrong side and Charis has stomped a mud hole where two of their armies used to be.

One stands out because it actually has a navy- that's competent, thanks to Thirsk- and a land forces commander, Alhverez, that has found enlightenment as well. He's smart enough to know that he was out thought and out generaled before he got out maneuvered and out fought.

And the point stands, right now, you couldn't get a decent field force out of the [i]three[i] of them, much less the two that are supposedly actively taking part in the war.

I doubt that it's going to matter much, but both Harchong and the Temple Lands are busy recruiting huge armies and according to the text will be able to arm them.

Ahlverez may well have made a better showing if he had not been hamstrung by incompetent superiors.

Don

n7axw wrote:I doubt that it's going to matter much, but both Harchong and the Temple Lands are busy recruiting huge armies and according to the text will be able to arm them.

Ahlverez may well have made a better showing if he had not been hamstrung by incompetent superiors.

Don

Harchong is raising another army but how much are you willing to bet it will be a redo of what the army now on the the front lines looked like when it first arrived in the Temple Lands?

I really don't think Langhorne himself could convince Harchong nobility to actually train conscripted serfs to a level of competence.

As for arming it, they didn't arm the majority of the force in the field either. They sent them forward with spears and slings, the G04 are the ones that decided to arm them with modern ranged weapons and teach them how to use them.

The matter of time also is in the equation.

I figure things could start happening rapidly-

The King Haaralds arrive and the ICN moves against Thirsk's fleet and wipes it out. Yes, there will be losses but the end of the last effective fleet the Church has is the goal. Clyntahn will, naturally, start raving again, throwing around threats and ultimatums, and will, probably, grab some more control over the war effort.

The spring offensives start and the ICA and Siddarmarkan Army chop the Harchongese and Temple forces into bite sized pieces- then chew them up and spit them out. Not without losses, mind you, and they will be high but they still win and the Church loses their last intact formations between the front and Zion.

I think it would set Clyntahn off and lead to another of his patented foaming at the mouth fits. I think that he then pushes Duchairn and Maguire (or however RFC spells it) so far that they have to act. It wouldn't surprise me if Clyntahn just decides to do away with the rest of the Go4 and run the whole thing himself. He's already got that thought rolling around in his mind. As much as he hates the other 2, it wouldn't take much for him to just decide that they need to go.

If Duchairn and Makguir (or however he spells them) get wind of it and act first, the greatest (arguably the sole one) driving force behind the Jihad is now in a coffin.

Ending his meddling may have done some good for the war effort a couple years ago- like before he decided to invade the biggest, richest and best armed nation on the mainland, fail to take it out completely and then compounded the failure by adopting a scorched earth policy that pretty much guarantees that an apology isn't going to be enough to end their part of the war. With the Grand Inquisitor out of the way, they may think that there's hope for a settlement- even if it's just a truce that would buy them time to catch their breath and make up some ground.

OR
During said eruption, Raynno ends up on the spot, fears for his safety and acts. He was getting that sinking feeling a little in this book and he knows that if his boss decides that he's expendable, he's dead. Who better to slip a knife between his ribs than his right hand man?

OR Helm Cleaver and/or Merlin & Caleb gets an opportunity because Clyntahn decides to actually leave the Temple complex to personally oversee some facet of his grand plan to get the Jihad back on track, because it's obvious that he can't rely on anyone (mostly because he's taken everyone else out of play on the Temple side). This one is the most unlikely- unless he gets fixated on something and ends up frustrated, so he decides to oversee it personally.

However it goes down, he gets it in the neck (or two behind the ear). The question is, who gets to do it.

Let that happen and there's a power vacuum at the top of the Church and things will fall to pieces.

Personally, my bet is on option #1 or, maybe, option #2. Option #2 is a longer shot but it is plausible.

pokermind wrote:

Undercover Fat Kid wrote:A little belated, but there you have it!

Any thoughts on what will be forthcoming in the series, or, as another poster put it, "gloriously foolish predictions?"

You might want to look at this topic:

http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3370&hilit=Polish

It's maybe a little dated (about 3.5 years old at this post,) and David may have changed his plans due to life circumstances. David gives a broad overview of his plans.

Charis wins the war, the next book, later truth is reviled causing a civil war two books planed, then the final showdown with the Gababa the series final book.

Transcription and videos of interviews are linked in the posts.

Enjoy, Poker

The truth is always reviled.