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(SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate

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(SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Duckk   » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:46 pm

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That is to say, why not blow up Dreadnought with a SNARC:

***

Short version: there was no reason to do so.

The real killer was the destruction of the ICN's conventional galleons (well, that and the manpower losses and moral damage) and the reduction in operational reach that entailed.

Sarmouth and Hektor were most devastated by the casualties, if you'll recall, and, secondarily, by the loss of platforms capable of standing up to conventional Dohlaran galleons. The Inner Circle knew it would be weeks (at the very least) before the RDN could put her back into action, and they also knew that it would be many months before they could begin to capitalize on any tech they might reverse engineer from her. She was armed with muzzle loaders, so there was no new tech available to them there, and there was no way they could duplicate Howsmyn's superior armor plate from their existing industrial plant. Aside from that, there really wasn't anything involved in her construction that Thirsk and his guys hadn't already pretty much figured out, at least in theory/general terms. The real question was whether or not they could duplicate what they already knew (in those general terms) the Charisians were doing, and simply examining the ship wouldn't tell them how to do that.

Sarmouth's arrival provided enough conventional platforms to reestablish a Charisian presence (especially in light of Dohlaran losses in the same battle) even in the eastern half of the Gulf, as he proceeded to demonstrate. In addition, Domnyk's redeployment plan would more than offset any tactical advantage the RDN might get out of her in the short term. And once the blue water ironclads get there, with BL rifled guns and improved AP ammo, Dreadnought is toast in any battle she might fight

In short, while they all hated losing her and --especially!! -- all the men lost with her, her possession by the RDN represented only a minor (and very transitory), purely tactical advantage to the enemy. Oh, they'll learn a few things they can put to use relatively soon, but not enough to materially affect the combat balance of the two navies. And, in the long term, there are potentially enormous strategic advantages in letting Dohlar keep her . . . for much the same reasons the King Harahlds were designed to have so much overkill. No thinking RDN officer can possibly inspect that ship without realizing how utterly she outclasses anything they have or could conceivably expect to build/duplicate. The more effort they waste trying to match her the better, from the EOC's perspective. Even more to the point, the lesson of tactical and strategic impotence will be more than sufficiently pointed when the same ironclads who paid a visit to Desnair get to Dohlaran waters and demonstrate their huge superiority to the ship those officers already know they can't possibly duplicate.

In other words, once the milk was spilled and she'd already been lost, there were precious few additional downsides and quite a few important (if subtle) upsides to letting them keep her. Of course, the inner circle isn't really in a position to share the logic behind those upsides with Zhan Q. Publyk.
-------------------------
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Ramhawkfan   » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:04 pm

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Duckk wrote:That is to say, why not blow up Dreadnought with a SNARC:

***

Short version: there was no reason to do so.

The real killer was the destruction of the ICN's conventional galleons (well, that and the manpower losses and moral damage) and the reduction in operational reach that entailed.

Sarmouth and Hektor were most devastated by the casualties, if you'll recall, and, secondarily, by the loss of platforms capable of standing up to conventional Dohlaran galleons. The Inner Circle knew it would be weeks (at the very least) before the RDN could put her back into action, and they also knew that it would be many months before they could begin to capitalize on any tech they might reverse engineer from her. She was armed with muzzle loaders, so there was no new tech available to them there, and there was no way they could duplicate Howsmyn's superior armor plate from their existing industrial plant. Aside from that, there really wasn't anything involved in her construction that Thirsk and his guys hadn't already pretty much figured out, at least in theory/general terms. The real question was whether or not they could duplicate what they already knew (in those general terms) the Charisians were doing, and simply examining the ship wouldn't tell them how to do that.

Sarmouth's arrival provided enough conventional platforms to reestablish a Charisian presence (especially in light of Dohlaran losses in the same battle) even in the eastern half of the Gulf, as he proceeded to demonstrate. In addition, Domnyk's redeployment plan would more than offset any tactical advantage the RDN might get out of her in the short term. And once the blue water ironclads get there, with BL rifled guns and improved AP ammo, Dreadnought is toast in any battle she might fight

In short, while they all hated losing her and --especially!! -- all the men lost with her, her possession by the RDN represented only a minor (and very transitory), purely tactical advantage to the enemy. Oh, they'll learn a few things they can put to use relatively soon, but not enough to materially affect the combat balance of the two navies. And, in the long term, there are potentially enormous strategic advantages in letting Dohlar keep her . . . for much the same reasons the King Harahlds were designed to have so much overkill. No thinking RDN officer can possibly inspect that ship without realizing how utterly she outclasses anything they have or could conceivably expect to build/duplicate. The more effort they waste trying to match her the better, from the EOC's perspective. Even more to the point, the lesson of tactical and strategic impotence will be more than sufficiently pointed when the same ironclads who paid a visit to Desnair get to Dohlaran waters and demonstrate their huge superiority to the ship those officers already know they can't possibly duplicate.

In other words, once the milk was spilled and she'd already been lost, there were precious few additional downsides and quite a few important (if subtle) upsides to letting them keep her. Of course, the inner circle isn't really in a position to share the logic behind those upsides with Zhan Q. Publyk.


Thank you for such a succinctly put summation. I've thought all along that some people were making way more out it than warranted, especially from a military standpoint.. I'm sure you'll still get arguments, but I agree with you whole heartedly..
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by saber964   » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:28 pm

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It's probably a lot like the Russians copying the B-29 at the end of WWII. By the time the Tu-4 entered service(1949) it was already obsolete and soon to be superseded by newer U.S. aircraft like the B-47 (1951)and B-52(1955).
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Isilith   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:58 am

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The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:38 am

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The fog of war and the inevitable results of relying on seijins for intel. When there are no seijin telling you things, the assumption is there are no threats to concern oneself over. The entire world is almost completely in the "everything happens because God wills it" mindset. This incudes Charis. Toss in seijin and there is proof that God is guiding events directly.

What the EoC needs to a good dose of God helps those who help themselves. Losing Dradnought and Thunderer is a small price to pay to really internalize that. Yes, they got sloppy and there are reasons they got sloppy. Those reasons are consistent with human nature and the story as it is told.

So, the decision to go after the crank galleys is a sound one. The after action reports should point out that preparation was less thorough than perhaps the situation called for. Not handwavium at all AFAICT.

Isilith wrote:The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Aethor   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:15 am

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But, Charisians are supposed to be competent seamen. And they cannot count on seijins to tell them about every mudflat, rock and whatnot along the shore.

I did not think about this myself, but now that Isilith said, it's obvious. IF they did not have maps of that area, THEN it would have been a no-brainer (for a career naval captain, from Charisian Navy no less, and at least one of the captains in that squadron should have thought of that) to let smaller and lighter ships - schooners - go first, to test for the depth etc.

Ok, a case could be made that if they thought they might run into those screw-galleys, that they wanted the armored ship to be in the forefront... but they did not mention anything like that.


PeterZ wrote:The fog of war and the inevitable results of relying on seijins for intel. When there are no seijin telling you things, the assumption is there are no threats to concern oneself over. The entire world is almost completely in the "everything happens because God wills it" mindset. This incudes Charis. Toss in seijin and there is proof that God is guiding events directly.

What the EoC needs to a good dose of God helps those who help themselves. Losing Dradnought and Thunderer is a small price to pay to really internalize that. Yes, they got sloppy and there are reasons they got sloppy. Those reasons are consistent with human nature and the story as it is told.

So, the decision to go after the crank galleys is a sound one. The after action reports should point out that preparation was less thorough than perhaps the situation called for. Not handwavium at all AFAICT.

Isilith wrote:The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Easternmystic   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:56 am

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Isilith wrote:The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.


Do you realize that just to carry charts of all possible places in the Golf of Dohlar is physically impossible. There is also the fact that it is possible to be carrying too many charts, resulting in the inability to find any chart when its required.

I have not read any place that states the iron clad was leading the formation. It was the ship that hit the nyd bank because it was the heaviest ship in the fleet. all the other ships being lighter since they don't have armor would be capable of sailing over the spot where the ironclad ran aground.

Finally, the battle scene was no more forced than all the other battles in which captains are unable to surrender because they have lost the ship has lost it's mast. It's a battle and random weird stuff happens. Sometimes it's the worst possible thing to have happened but that's what actually does happen in real life.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by n7axw   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:14 pm

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IIRC, they did have charts which they didn't fully trust. The mudbank appeared in the middle of what appeared to be the main channel on the chart. I could be wrong on this one, but as I recall, that mudbank was known, but had a reputation for shifting around.

What happened was as Peter stated, fog of war. Rfc has never made any pretence that the good guys will do everything right. It's easy to Monday morming quarterback and be wise after the fact.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by runsforcelery   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:04 pm

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Isilith wrote:The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.



I probably shouldn't say this, but in this instance you don't know what you're talking about.

First, yes, Charisian merchantmen trade almost everywhere, but that's almost everywhere. Do you think that the British admiralty had detailed charts of every bay and harbor on the entire planet in 1800? If so, I have some bottomland I want to sell you: just don't ask me what it's on the bottom of. Do not be thinking that anyone on Safehold has anything remotely like the maritime charting resources that we take for granted today. And, by the way, ships still run aground in thoroughly surveyed waters even today. Charis is still in the early process of building up the equivalent of the British Empire's Admiralty Charts, but they are one hell of a long way away from having accomplished that yet. The fact that there are detailed geophysical maps of the of the land area of the planet dating from the time of the "Archangels" doesn't say a thing about current day underwater typography.

Second, this particular port is not one where blue water Charisian ships are likely to call very often, for a lot of reasons, including the fact that it makes a lot more sense for them to pick up cargoes closer to the Gulf of Dohlar. Why should they sail the extra distance when there is a lively and healthy coastal trade delivering materials transported through the canals to blue water port terminals? So, no, they didn't have a handy, up-to-date chart they could pull out for reference.

Third, you did see the bit where the Harchongese have removed all of the buoys and other navigating marks, didn't you? So even if the Charisians had had accurate and up-to-date charts and been aware that there was a mudbank around, finding it before they hit it would have been a nontrivial challenge.

Fourth, you know absolutely nothing about the geometry of the shoal. You don't know how much of it the ironclad actually hit or how deep the water over the rest of the shoal was. In other words, for all you know, they struck an outlying branch of a much larger shoal which any schooner or galleon in front of her (all of whom were shallower draft than she was) might have just barely cleared.

Fifth, there's no point in the narrative which says that the ironclad was leading the formation. She was, in fact, leading her column of the formation, which also included the bombardment ships, and that column was at or near the center of the entire formation because of signaling concerns. But sailing ships don't maintain the kind of neat formation that steam-powered vessels do. They can't, because of the vagaries of their propulsive system. Every single one of them sails slightly differently, every single one of them handles differently, and it's far more difficult to "tweak" speed up and down in a square-rigger. This is true even for sister ships built to identical plans, much less an entire squadron of ships with different hullforms, different rigs, different degrees of fouling, and about a bazillion other factors. So even the columns into which they were nominally divided were scarcely a case of "I am sailing in the wake of the ship in front of me." In fact, for pre-radar sailing vessels in the dark, maintaining any kind of close formation is actively dangerous. A fleet of sailing ships will normally attempt to remain in company during hours of darkness; they will not (for all of the reasons given above) try to maintain precise station on one another except under extraordinary circumstances.

Sixth, the galleon columns — all of their columns, to the extent that there were columns — were proceeded by the scouting schooners, none of whom grounded on or saw the shoal. Partly that was because of their shallower drafts, but mostly? Mostly it was because they sailed right past it. Had they done so in daylight, they probably would have noted the change in the water's color over the shoal and been aware of its presence; in the dark, no one was able to pick up that visual cue.

Seventh, I could give you an incredibly extensive list of ships which went aground knowing there were shoals in the vicinity, including — but scarcely limited to — the USS Philadelphia under the command of "Hard Luck Bill" Bainbridge when Commodore Preble was sent to "reason with" the "Pirates of Tripoli" and USS Wisconsin in Chesapeake Bay in the 1950s. In Bainbridge's case, like the Charisians in this case, he had no reliable charts, but he did know that he was sailing into shoal water when he did it. In Wisconsin's case, however, she took the ground despite excellent charts and every other advantage. And, if memory serves, she did it in broad daylight.

In a sense, everything a storyteller does is "because I said so," but in this instance you seem to be getting bent out of shape over something which is utterly plausible, based on the number of times it's happened in real life history. Trust me, losing Philadelphia in 1805 was a far greater blow to the teeny-tiny USN than losing a single Rottweiler was to the ICN, and at the time she grounded, Wisconsin was, I believe, the only US battleship in commission. For that matter, the only ship-of-the-line the British lost on the American station during the American Revolution was lost because she grounded on a mudbank and couldn't be gotten off again. So don't tell me that "key ships" can't take the ground as readily as anyone else. Yes, I created a situation in which Charis lost an ironclad, but I played completely fair with the reader in the way I did it. You may not accept that, but to be perfectly honest the arguments against it which you have advanced are specious, at best.


"Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as Piglet came back from the dead.
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Re: (SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate
Post by Ramhawkfan   » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:13 pm

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runsforcelery wrote:
Isilith wrote:The bigger "hand-wavium it just happens because I said so" was losing the first ironclad. Seriously would have never, ever happened... really annoyed me that he did it, especially how he did it.

1) As the books have pointed out about 1 billion times, Charisian merchantmen sailed EVERYWHERE... and have charts of EVERYWHERE that they sail... and they distributed copies of said charts every time they came back to Charis. yet the had no charts of this ONE bay. Wow... really?

2) She was leading the formation? WTF??? This really blows my mind, especially from a military historian like RFC, utter BS. She would have been in the middle of the sailing formation, nowhere near the front. So if any ship had hit the mudflat ( that they had no idea was there, for God alone knows what reason )it would have been one of the schooners or at least one of the other galleons. Absolutely ZERO chance it would have been the ironclad or one of the two bombardment ships. Those 3 would have been the center of the formation. And if they weren't, Ahbat should have been court-martialed for incompetence, not patted on the back and told it wasn't his fault.

Honestly, this annoyed me even more than "oops, forgot to light the fuse because I am an idiot" that he pulled with Dreadnought.

This whole battle scene was so forced and "made" to happen that it was annoying, and took away from the book.



I probably shouldn't say this, but in this instance you don't know what you're talking about.

First, yes, Charisian merchantmen trade almost everywhere, but that's almost everywhere. Do you think that the British admiralty had detailed charts of every bay and harbor on the entire planet in 1800? If so, I have some bottomland I want to sell you: just don't ask me what it's on the bottom of. Do not be thinking that anyone on Safehold has anything remotely like the maritime charting resources that we take for granted today. And, by the way, ships still run aground in thoroughly surveyed waters even today. Charis is still in the early process of building up the equivalent of the British Empire's Admiralty Charts, but they are one hell of a long way away from having accomplished that yet. The fact that there are detailed geophysical maps of the of the land area of the planet dating from the time of the "Archangels" doesn't say a thing about current day underwater typography.

Second, this particular port is not one where blue water Charisian ships are likely to call very often, for a lot of reasons, including the fact that it makes a lot more sense for them to pick up cargoes closer to the Gulf of Dohlar. Why should they sail the extra distance when there is a lively and healthy coastal trade delivering materials transported through the canals to blue water port terminals? So, no, they didn't have a handy, up-to-date chart they could pull out for reference.

Third, you did see the bit where the Harchongese have removed all of the buoys and other navigating marks, didn't you? So even if the Charisians had had accurate and up-to-date charts and been aware that there was a mudbank around, finding it before they hit it would have been a nontrivial challenge.

Fourth, you know absolutely nothing about the geometry of the shoal. You don't know how much of it the ironclad actually hit or how deep the water over the rest of the shoal was. In other words, for all you know, they struck an outlying branch of a much larger shoal which any schooner or galleon in front of her (all of whom were shallower draft than she was) might have just barely cleared.

Fifth, there's no point in the narrative which says that the ironclad was leading the formation. She was, in fact, leading her column of the formation, which also included the bombardment ships, and that column was at or near the center of the entire formation because of signaling concerns. But sailing ships don't maintain the kind of neat formation that steam-powered vessels do. They can't, because of the vagaries of their propulsive system. Every single one of them sails slightly differently, every single one of them handles differently, and it's far more difficult to "tweak" speed up and down in a square-rigger. This is true even for sister ships built to identical plans, much less an entire squadron of ships with different hullforms, different rigs, different degrees of fouling, and about a bazillion other factors. So even the columns into which they were nominally divided were scarcely a case of "I am sailing in the wake of the ship in front of me." In fact, for pre-radar sailing vessels in the dark, maintaining any kind of close formation is actively dangerous. A fleet of sailing ships will normally attempt to remain in company during hours of darkness; they will not (for all of the reasons given above) try to maintain precise station on one another except under extraordinary circumstances.

Sixth, the galleon columns — all of their columns, to the extent that there were columns — were proceeded by the scouting schooners, none of whom grounded on or saw the shoal. Partly that was because of their shallower drafts, but mostly? Mostly it was because they sailed right past it. Had they done so in daylight, they probably would have noted the change in the water's color over the shoal and been aware of its presence; in the dark, no one was able to pick up that visual cue.

Seventh, I could give you an incredibly extensive list of ships which went aground knowing there were shoals in the vicinity, including — but scarcely limited to — the USS Philadelphia under the command of "Hard Luck Bill" Bainbridge when Commodore Preble was sent to "reason with" the "Pirates of Tripoli" and USS Wisconsin in Chesapeake Bay in the 1950s. In Bainbridge's case, like the Charisians in this case, he had no reliable charts, but he did know that he was sailing into shoal water when he did it. In Wisconsin's case, however, she took the ground despite excellent charts and every other advantage. And, if memory serves, she did it in broad daylight.

In a sense, everything a storyteller does is "because I said so," but in this instance you seem to be getting bent out of shape over something which is utterly plausible, based on the number of times it's happened in real life history. Trust me, losing Philadelphia in 1805 was a far greater blow to the teeny-tiny USN than losing a single Rottweiler was to the ICN, and at the time she grounded, Wisconsin was, I believe, the only US battleship in commission. For that matter, the only ship-of-the-line the British lost on the American station during the American Revolution was lost because she grounded on a mudbank and couldn't be gotten off again. So don't tell me that "key ships" can't take the ground as readily as anyone else. Yes, I created a situation in which Charis lost an ironclad, but I played completely fair with the reader in the way I did it. You may not accept that, but to be perfectly honest the arguments against it which you have advanced are specious, at best.



He speaks!!!!

Seriously though, thanks for the detailed explanation.
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