Date for "Last' Safehold Book publication

n7axw wrote:

thanatos wrote:The current trajectory of the series is fairly clear right at the moment (though that's subject to change by RFC). HFQ indicates that the CoGA's finances are in serious trouble - Maigwair thinks in August 897 that Rhobair Duchairn would be able to fund the Jihad for 12-15 months. That means that by August 898 (November 898 at the latest), the Church will be officially bankrupt (i.e. unable to pay it's bills and the salaries of its personnel). Obviously that assumes something disastrous doesn't happen to Charis in the meantime (like some huge Church victory). But it's clear that the church is still catching up to Charis in the innovation game despite recent developments and has far more opportunities to make money in the middle of a war for survival. It's also clear that if Charis can beat the "Mighty Host of God and the Archangels" the Church won't have any more armies to send against them.

Moreover, I noticed that the nature of the Jihad is one of escalating magnitudes of force. Here we see a minor scene between Eastshare and his subordinates who marvel at the size of the forces that will face off (in the hundreds of thousands), both in Cliff Peak and in the Sylmahn Gap. Maigwair has a similar revelation himself and the understanding that no one's ever sent out armies of this size. Here Charis still has the fundamental advantage in that it's leadership can still draw upon historical knowledge the Church does not have access to (and how to avoid any problems).

So ultimately, the next book, even if it only covers a period of 6-7 months (like the last few books have been), will still cover the final battles of the Jihad and the political ramifications for Safehold in general and the Church in particular. The one thing that's really struck me has been Rayno concluding that the Fist of God is receiving "demonic assistance". Once he and Clyntahn realized this (rather than just making baseless accusations) they began to think about ways to deal with the problem (though they don't really have one - yet). All they do know (correctly) is that Merlin dares not operate too close to the Temple. It does beg the question of how many secret records the Church has stashed away in the Great Library on the War Against the Fallen (as some insights as to how to summon the needed "angelic" assistance to counter the "demons").

Beyond that though, I think we will see 2-3 more books about the big fight for hearts and minds once the truth is revealed and the "Archangels" finally return. But as for the Gbaba, I don't know whether RFC will want to cover that since he seems to enjoy this low-tech with a dash of high-tech approach far too much!

I'm not sure that the church is really catching up, but to use the analogy of the tortise and the hare, the tortise is definitely in motion. We've seen more church innovation in this book.

I don't think that the church will go bankrupt. What would be more likely would be to issue promisory notes and mandate that they be accepted as legal tender. They would have to freeze prices and implement rationing to keep inflation under control, but those are normal wartime measures.

Don

They can't use it as legal tender, Don. Currency must be backed by precious metal...or something. I can see the Church issuing notes backed by core church assets and properties. What I see as much more likely is confiscating estates in the Temple Lands.

That opens a whole new kettle of fish....one that Duchairn recognizes quite well.

ryndieum wrote:

They can't use it as legal tender, Don. Currency must be backed by precious metal...or something. I can see the Church issuing notes backed by core church assets and properties. What I see as much more likely is confiscating estates in the Temple Lands.

That opens a whole new kettle of fish....one that Duchairn recognizes quite well.

Why? The dollar isn't backed by anything except the faith and credit of the United States. Almost (perhaps all, I didn't google it) modern currencies are not backed by anything except the faith of the people that they are valuable.

PeterZ wrote:
They can't use it as legal tender, Don. Currency must be backed by precious metal...or something. I can see the Church issuing notes backed by core church assets and properties. What I see as much more likely is confiscating estates in the Temple Lands.

That opens a whole new kettle of fish....one that Duchairn recognizes quite well.

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:
They can't use it as legal tender, Don. Currency must be backed by precious metal...or something. I can see the Church issuing notes backed by core church assets and properties. What I see as much more likely is confiscating estates in the Temple Lands.

That opens a whole new kettle of fish....one that Duchairn recognizes quite well.

If the situation becomes desperate enough, the church will issue the dispensations to do whatever it has to in the name of survival. They aren't about to let legal nicities get in the way.

I've never heard of a war stopping because of lack of money. Lack of resourses, yes, but not lack of money. Money is too easy to print.

Don

PeterZ wrote:That's not the point, Don. Those notes can and likely will be issued. That doesn't mean those notes will be circulated beyond their initial issuance. No one will accept them willingly from a non church source. That means the church's direct suppliers have to find a way to entice or force their suppliers to take those notes. Enticing means offering discounts. Forcing requires redirecting the military away from the front. In either case the efficiency of the loyalist economy will plummet as the smart actors find ways around being in that business and taking those notes.

In the end these dispensations will simply mount ever higher until even the most stupid loyalist will believe that the CoGA believes God's Law applies to everyone but the clergy.

n7axw wrote:

thanatos wrote:The current trajectory of the series is fairly clear right at the moment (though that's subject to change by RFC). HFQ indicates that the CoGA's finances are in serious trouble - Maigwair thinks in August 897 that Rhobair Duchairn would be able to fund the Jihad for 12-15 months. That means that by August 898 (November 898 at the latest), the Church will be officially bankrupt (i.e. unable to pay it's bills and the salaries of its personnel). Obviously that assumes something disastrous doesn't happen to Charis in the meantime (like some huge Church victory). But it's clear that the church is still catching up to Charis in the innovation game despite recent developments and has far more opportunities to make money in the middle of a war for survival. It's also clear that if Charis can beat the "Mighty Host of God and the Archangels" the Church won't have any more armies to send against them.

Moreover, I noticed that the nature of the Jihad is one of escalating magnitudes of force. Here we see a minor scene between Eastshare and his subordinates who marvel at the size of the forces that will face off (in the hundreds of thousands), both in Cliff Peak and in the Sylmahn Gap. Maigwair has a similar revelation himself and the understanding that no one's ever sent out armies of this size. Here Charis still has the fundamental advantage in that it's leadership can still draw upon historical knowledge the Church does not have access to (and how to avoid any problems).

So ultimately, the next book, even if it only covers a period of 6-7 months (like the last few books have been), will still cover the final battles of the Jihad and the political ramifications for Safehold in general and the Church in particular. The one thing that's really struck me has been Rayno concluding that the Fist of God is receiving "demonic assistance". Once he and Clyntahn realized this (rather than just making baseless accusations) they began to think about ways to deal with the problem (though they don't really have one - yet). All they do know (correctly) is that Merlin dares not operate too close to the Temple. It does beg the question of how many secret records the Church has stashed away in the Great Library on the War Against the Fallen (as some insights as to how to summon the needed "angelic" assistance to counter the "demons").

Beyond that though, I think we will see 2-3 more books about the big fight for hearts and minds once the truth is revealed and the "Archangels" finally return. But as for the Gbaba, I don't know whether RFC will want to cover that since he seems to enjoy this low-tech with a dash of high-tech approach far too much!

I'm not sure that the church is really catching up, but to use the analogy of the tortise and the hare, the tortise is definitely in motion. We've seen more church innovation in this book.

I don't think that the church will go bankrupt. What would be more likely would be to issue promisory notes and mandate that they be accepted as legal tender. They would have to freeze prices and implement rationing to keep inflation under control, but those are normal wartime measures.

Don

Stormy wrote:It's been at least a year or so since I read this, so I'm sure I've got a lot of it wrong.

But I remember a conversation where DW was explaining something of how the story arc was supposed to go. There were originally going to be 8, 10, 12 books, I forget exactly how many. The story arc we are currently on was only supposed to be a few books, 3 or 4? I think. But it expanded into a much bigger story than was originally planned. I believe he said that this story arc, breaking the Church and the Proscriptions, would finish up and then skip ahead. If I'm remembering right, not something to bet on, there were going to be three story arcs, this one, one in the "middle" ??? and an end facing off with the Gbaba (sp?).

Now, based on nothing but my opinion, not something I've read anywhere, I'd guess at least 2 more books to finish off this story arc. Could probably do it in one but I think it would have to be very rushed.