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Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by Laenole » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:16 pm | |
Laenole
Posts: 25
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The long distance march rates of all Safehold armies are greatly exaggerated unless one or both of the following are true:
1. Safehold has a 5 to 10% lower gravity than Earth standard 2. Genetic modification of the human genome prior to the Gbada had changed human endurance and muscle performance My evidence is as follows: • In LAMA Ahlverez claims that his Dohlarans can maintain 50 miles per day over 500 miles • The inept Desnarians were able to maintain 20 miles/day and forced marched for 11 days covering 370 miles. The force march did have serious effect on desertion and health of the Desnarians. •In HFQ Green Valley’s ICN forces were able to maintain 20 miles/day cross country in the snow Geo/Bio physic s analysis of march rates at http://www.bandaarcgeophysics.co.uk/arc ... ingV2.html makes these rates very suspect. The site is a gold mine for anyone trying to analyze ancient campaigns or write about fictional ones. The Doctor of Geophysics (London Univ.) author S. J. Kaye, uses British and US military march data along with biomechanical formula to estimate sustainable long distance march rates for Roman legionnaires. I will summarize some of his key conclusions below and let those interested read his article. • The Roman legions could maintain an on-road march velocity of 2.85 to 3 mph) over long distances. This assumes a 0% grade and a wet bulb global temperature below 25C. He assumes that the legions (for his paper he includes auxiliary troops with legionnaires) rest 10 minutes in every hour making their effective speed 2.375 to 2.5 mph. • In a 13 hour day between sunrise and sunset, the legions would normally march for 8 hours with the rest of the daylight time spent breaking and making the camp, collecting forage for the mules, meals, and rest and repair. This made their daily march 19 to 20 miles per day on flat ground along a road in good weather. • Starting with the 4th hour of marching, even after a lunch break, data indicates that the soldier’s energy expenditures begin to rise. It is estimates that it rises 10% per hour. • Off road movement rates are estimated to be in the 1.5 to 1.71 mph range. With 10 minute rest breaks per hour the distances covered per hour would be 1.25 to 1.425 miles for 10 to 11 miles per day. • Finally for units of 5,120 men with 158 2-mule carts, only 2 or 3 units could march together on a road and make the same camp. Larger armies would have to break up into separate camps along the road (separated by several hours of march) or the army would have to break up into 2 unit groups marching in parallel off road. Note that the Doctor rates Roman legionnaires with sustain energy expenditure capability for marching equivalent to that of 'US Marine mountain warfare' and the 'Norwegian Ranger cadets'. The march rates achieved by the ten-thousand on their march to the battle of Cunaxa show a similar road march rate. See http://www.tulane.edu/~august/H310/hand ... tary_d.htm. Note this march rates are along a road in friendly territory with granaries used for supplies. The march had frequent rest stops to provide good timing for grain supplies along the way. Note that all of these rates are for long distance sustained marching. Higher force march rates for short times are, of course, possible. For instance Davout forced marched 7,000 men of his III Corps (sans artillery) 68 (some say 80) miles in 48 hours to take part in the battle of Austerlitz. Note that Davout would be Green Valley’s model if the later was aware of him. He was a strict disciplinarian that trained his men hard but always made sure they were taken care of. He shared in the exertions of his troops. Since Davout knew that he was needed and would try to hurry his men a much as possible, his march probably represents an upper limit to a force march speed that would leave the men in shape ot fight. Last edited by Laenole on Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by n7axw » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:21 pm | |
n7axw
Posts: 5997
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I've been skeptical of march rates myself. Some of the movement has armies moving along canals in barges which probably would change the equation a bit.
But in the main, yes, I agree that the march rates are a bit much. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by Louis R » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:48 pm | |
Louis R
Posts: 1298
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We're getting apparently inconsistent numbers for the AoM: I also recall seeing that 20mi/day figure somewhere, but the AoG figures discussing GV's movements give 8mi/day - a number that is 100% sustainable for troops equipped like his. In fact, it probably included weather delays, since they could hold a pace closer to 12mi/day for at least 80 days actually on the march. I suspect that 20 is a surge value that could be kept up for 5-10 days at most, and requires pitching and breaking camp in the dark. [Something that is perfectly doable. I know, having done it.]
While I will admit to scratching my head over some of the other numbers given in text, I would be very leery of assuming that Himself just pulled them out of a hat [never mind someplace... darker...]. He's probably quite familiar not only with sources like the one the OP cited, but with the original records left by people who have actually marched over various terrains using various levels of technology, not simply analysed it theoretically.
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Re: Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by Expert snuggler » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:22 pm | |
Expert snuggler
Posts: 491
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Do we know Safehold's gravity?
The wiki says it's about Earth-normal, but doesn't link to a source, and "about" could allow for a 10% difference. |
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Re: Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by Silverwall » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:38 pm | |
Silverwall
Posts: 388
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The other issue slowing things down is the snaking/queuing effect and how long it takes to move several thousand men past a given point, watch the start of any marathon to get a feel for the problem and then narrow the road by 2/3.
My general rule of thumb is to divide all distances covered and speeds mentioned in the books by 2, note this also applies to sailing speeds of the ships which have been unrealistically high by historical standards. (Both sail and steam powered ships) |
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Re: Safehold march speeds and their implications | |
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by Laenole » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:03 pm | |
Laenole
Posts: 25
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The author of the article's road march low and hi rates are US army and Marine standards for low and British army for hi. He took these numbers and used known formulae to give them a physiological context.
What DW ran into is that to fit a timeline of moving the AoS the 800 miles from Thesmar to Fort Tairys in fit his timeline, he needed to double reasonable march speeds. The scale of Safehold action has has been a problem for him throughout the series. Starting with essentially 1400s technology and advancing to late 1800 tech, he has been describing a world war. He essentially had to double reasonable movement rates to allow campaigns to fit yesrly increments. |
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