Date for "Last' Safehold Book publication

So we have a lot of people discussing various possible story lines but what about a date for the publication of the next book. Speed up someones pacemaker and get it published.

I don't see the series being wrapped up in one more book. Does anybody disagree?

It's been at least a year or so since I read this, so I'm sure I've got a lot of it wrong.

But I remember a conversation where DW was explaining something of how the story arc was supposed to go. There were originally going to be 8, 10, 12 books, I forget exactly how many. The story arc we are currently on was only supposed to be a few books, 3 or 4? I think. But it expanded into a much bigger story than was originally planned. I believe he said that this story arc, breaking the Church and the Proscriptions, would finish up and then skip ahead. If I'm remembering right, not something to bet on, there were going to be three story arcs, this one, one in the "middle" ??? and an end facing off with the Gbaba (sp?).

Now, based on nothing but my opinion, not something I've read anywhere, I'd guess at least 2 more books to finish off this story arc. Could probably do it in one but I think it would have to be very rushed.

Stormy wrote:It's been at least a year or so since I read this, so I'm sure I've got a lot of it wrong.

But I remember a conversation where DW was explaining something of how the story arc was supposed to go. There were originally going to be 8, 10, 12 books, I forget exactly how many. The story arc we are currently on was only supposed to be a few books, 3 or 4? I think. But it expanded into a much bigger story than was originally planned. I believe he said that this story arc, breaking the Church and the Proscriptions, would finish up and then skip ahead. If I'm remembering right, not something to bet on, there were going to be three story arcs, this one, one in the "middle" ??? and an end facing off with the Gbaba (sp?).

Now, based on nothing but my opinion, not something I've read anywhere, I'd guess at least 2 more books to finish off this story arc. Could probably do it in one but I think it would have to be very rushed.

The Honorverse blew up in a similar manner. It has been awhile, but I think I remember reading somewhere that he originally planned 8 books or so for the story arc. How did that work out?

IIRC from the one time I got to attend a panel of his (ConDFW back in 2009) the original *contract* with Tor was for 8 books, but I could be mistaken. He can certainly wrap up the existing 'Charis vs Go4' timeline in one more book... let's be honest here, he's set it up to where it's pretty much being driven by Clinton, single-handedly at this point. Take him out, get a moderate in there, and the CoGA would sue for peace at least, and perhaps recognition of the schismatic church. HFQ has primed the 'collapse of the Jihad' pump pretty well. A couple of grand clashes against the Harchongian Horde, some scenes with KH Battleships wreaking havoc, etc.

It somewhat fits with the Archangel's return in... what was it, 20 years? It's far enough away that the current book arc can't reach it without a big 'skip'. Perfect place for the MWW to end the current Jihad with book 8. Unless he plans to have Harchong collapse then the Golden Horde has enough numbers and weapons to force some stability in the front once they finally get set up, and with Clinton gone and the current Jihad at least suspended or called off, he can arrange for the next set of books to pick up with the Return. This would also allow a bit of a real world pause of a year or two to crank out the words on HH or the War God Opus.

Just a guess. For all I know he could plan to keep writing Civil War era combat books detailing the March on Zion for the next 20 years, but I doubt it. The next book could be key, and match up with the 8 book order.

NervousEnergy wrote:IIRC from the one time I got to attend a panel of his (ConDFW back in 2009) the original *contract* with Tor was for 8 books, but I could be mistaken. He can certainly wrap up the existing 'Charis vs Go4' timeline in one more book... let's be honest here, he's set it up to where it's pretty much being driven by Clinton, single-handedly at this point. Take him out, get a moderate in there, and the CoGA would sue for peace at least, and perhaps recognition of the schismatic church. HFQ has primed the 'collapse of the Jihad' pump pretty well. A couple of grand clashes against the Harchongian Horde, some scenes with KH Battleships wreaking havoc, etc.

It somewhat fits with the Archangel's return in... what was it, 20 years? It's far enough away that the current book arc can't reach it without a big 'skip'. Perfect place for the MWW to end the current Jihad with book 8. Unless he plans to have Harchong collapse then the Golden Horde has enough numbers and weapons to force some stability in the front once they finally get set up, and with Clinton gone and the current Jihad at least suspended or called off, he can arrange for the next set of books to pick up with the Return. This would also allow a bit of a real world pause of a year or two to crank out the words on HH or the War God Opus.

Just a guess. For all I know he could plan to keep writing Civil War era combat books detailing the March on Zion for the next 20 years, but I doubt it. The next book could be key, and match up with the 8 book order.

I think we are in the midst of the crescendo of the first story arc with the last three books. Up to MTAT, each book covered about a year in the time line. LAMA and HFQ in particular slowed down to about six months which tells me we're in a critical part of the story.

There is supposed to be at least one more war in this story arc. I wonder if we get a blow by blow on that or if we get a brief summary done in patented Weber flashback mode as introduction to the next part of the story.

Don

The current trajectory of the series is fairly clear right at the moment (though that's subject to change by RFC). HFQ indicates that the CoGA's finances are in serious trouble - Maigwair thinks in August 897 that Rhobair Duchairn would be able to fund the Jihad for 12-15 months. That means that by August 898 (November 898 at the latest), the Church will be officially bankrupt (i.e. unable to pay it's bills and the salaries of its personnel). Obviously that assumes something disastrous doesn't happen to Charis in the meantime (like some huge Church victory). But it's clear that the church is still catching up to Charis in the innovation game despite recent developments and has far more opportunities to make money in the middle of a war for survival. It's also clear that if Charis can beat the "Mighty Host of God and the Archangels" the Church won't have any more armies to send against them.

Moreover, I noticed that the nature of the Jihad is one of escalating magnitudes of force. Here we see a minor scene between Eastshare and his subordinates who marvel at the size of the forces that will face off (in the hundreds of thousands), both in Cliff Peak and in the Sylmahn Gap. Maigwair has a similar revelation himself and the understanding that no one's ever sent out armies of this size. Here Charis still has the fundamental advantage in that it's leadership can still draw upon historical knowledge the Church does not have access to (and how to avoid any problems).

So ultimately, the next book, even if it only covers a period of 6-7 months (like the last few books have been), will still cover the final battles of the Jihad and the political ramifications for Safehold in general and the Church in particular. The one thing that's really struck me has been Rayno concluding that the Fist of God is receiving "demonic assistance". Once he and Clyntahn realized this (rather than just making baseless accusations) they began to think about ways to deal with the problem (though they don't really have one - yet). All they do know (correctly) is that Merlin dares not operate too close to the Temple. It does beg the question of how many secret records the Church has stashed away in the Great Library on the War Against the Fallen (as some insights as to how to summon the needed "angelic" assistance to counter the "demons").

Beyond that though, I think we will see 2-3 more books about the big fight for hearts and minds once the truth is revealed and the "Archangels" finally return. But as for the Gbaba, I don't know whether RFC will want to cover that since he seems to enjoy this low-tech with a dash of high-tech approach far too much!

I think this book (HFQ) is number 8. The next one is number 9. But, yes, it probably could be wrapped up in only one more book.

NervousEnergy wrote:IIRC from the one time I got to attend a panel of his (ConDFW back in 2009) the original *contract* with Tor was for 8 books, but I could be mistaken. He can certainly wrap up the existing 'Charis vs Go4' timeline in one more book...

- BIG SNIP OF TEXT -

The next book could be key, and match up with the 8 book order.

ayg wrote:I think this book (HFQ) is number 8. The next one is number 9. But, yes, it probably could be wrapped up in only one more book.

NervousEnergy wrote:IIRC from the one time I got to attend a panel of his (ConDFW back in 2009) the original *contract* with Tor was for 8 books, but I could be mistaken. He can certainly wrap up the existing 'Charis vs Go4' timeline in one more book...

- BIG SNIP OF TEXT -

The next book could be key, and match up with the 8 book order.

But do we have a time-frame yet?

thanatos wrote:The current trajectory of the series is fairly clear right at the moment (though that's subject to change by RFC). HFQ indicates that the CoGA's finances are in serious trouble - Maigwair thinks in August 897 that Rhobair Duchairn would be able to fund the Jihad for 12-15 months. That means that by August 898 (November 898 at the latest), the Church will be officially bankrupt (i.e. unable to pay it's bills and the salaries of its personnel). Obviously that assumes something disastrous doesn't happen to Charis in the meantime (like some huge Church victory). But it's clear that the church is still catching up to Charis in the innovation game despite recent developments and has far more opportunities to make money in the middle of a war for survival. It's also clear that if Charis can beat the "Mighty Host of God and the Archangels" the Church won't have any more armies to send against them.

Moreover, I noticed that the nature of the Jihad is one of escalating magnitudes of force. Here we see a minor scene between Eastshare and his subordinates who marvel at the size of the forces that will face off (in the hundreds of thousands), both in Cliff Peak and in the Sylmahn Gap. Maigwair has a similar revelation himself and the understanding that no one's ever sent out armies of this size. Here Charis still has the fundamental advantage in that it's leadership can still draw upon historical knowledge the Church does not have access to (and how to avoid any problems).

So ultimately, the next book, even if it only covers a period of 6-7 months (like the last few books have been), will still cover the final battles of the Jihad and the political ramifications for Safehold in general and the Church in particular. The one thing that's really struck me has been Rayno concluding that the Fist of God is receiving "demonic assistance". Once he and Clyntahn realized this (rather than just making baseless accusations) they began to think about ways to deal with the problem (though they don't really have one - yet). All they do know (correctly) is that Merlin dares not operate too close to the Temple. It does beg the question of how many secret records the Church has stashed away in the Great Library on the War Against the Fallen (as some insights as to how to summon the needed "angelic" assistance to counter the "demons").

Beyond that though, I think we will see 2-3 more books about the big fight for hearts and minds once the truth is revealed and the "Archangels" finally return. But as for the Gbaba, I don't know whether RFC will want to cover that since he seems to enjoy this low-tech with a dash of high-tech approach far too much!

I'm not sure that the church is really catching up, but to use the analogy of the tortise and the hare, the tortise is definitely in motion. We've seen more church innovation in this book.

I don't think that the church will go bankrupt. What would be more likely would be to issue promisory notes and mandate that they be accepted as legal tender. They would have to freeze prices and implement rationing to keep inflation under control, but those are normal wartime measures.

Don