I largely agree - Thirsk won't switch sides and he won't be retiring to live out the rest of his life in the EoC with his family.Adeon Hawkwood wrote:I'm leaning towards the "organize a coup" option (against the Church, not necessarily against the King). I think that there's no way Thirsk would take service with Charis, his loyalty to his country is to strong for that.
He might be willing to seek asylum in Charis, but I think that would be a last resort for him since it would mean abandoning the officers and men of the Dohlaran Navy (and Clyntahn would probably do a major purge of the navy to be on the safe side if Thirsk defects).
Given that I can definitely see him organizing a coup to move Dohlar to at least a neutral stance.
I think we were given a major hint of what was in store for Thirsk way back in OAR when Thirsk surrendered to Cayleb.
"I do feel sorry for Thirsk, though," Merlin said after a moment, his smile fading. "You were right when you said he deserved a better cause to serve."
"He'd be more likely to find one of those if he'd find a better king," Cayleb said tartly. "Trust me. That's something I know a little about."
"Yes, you do."
King Rahnyld of Dohlar was painted as a very different sort of ruler in HFQ than OAR, where he blithely sent his entire navy off to destroy another country merely to have the interest rate on his loans from Mother Church reduced. He was quite hands-on then, and now that his country is engaged in a jihad for the souls of men and has suffered severe defeats on land and sea, he's mentally checked out and is letting his advisers run the kingdom. Fine, if he wishes to act like he's abdicated, then abdicate, and let Thirsk, Ahlverez, Fern, and Maik serve on his son's regency council and let them sue for terms in order to preserve the kingdom! Otherwise the CoGA and the allies are going to crush it.
The ICN will soon be able to sink Dohlar's fleet, including all those screw galleys and the Thunderer they just captured. (I wish a couple of City class ironclads had been sent to the Gulf of Dohlar, but the Haarahlds will do nicely!) They'll lay waste to every port and waterfront, and destroy Dohlar's commercial fleet as well. Hanth, (who was recently reinforced so I'm betting he got the latest 50,000 troops from Chisholm) is battering at Dohlar's eastern border, and his men are better armed and trained than the RDA by far. Plus he has actual ICA troops with him now, and DE can sweep down to help finish the job this winter to keep his troops busy. (Which is what I expected him to do...)
The CoGA is trying to keep an iron boot on the neck of the nations of Safehold, but to paraphrase Princess Leia, the harder Clyntahn tries to crush Safehold to do his bidding, the more countries will slip through his fingers. The only thing keeping Dohlar in the jihad right now is the wolf baying at the door (Hanth) and the hope that their navy might make a difference. That fleet is about to find out that it's completely obsolete and impotent. A single Haarahld VII can defeat every other ship on the planet, and a couple of City class ironclads could destroy the entire Dohlaran navy.
So what will Dohlar do when military defeat is only months away? It needs to cut a deal as quickly as possible, or it will find itself becoming the new SW provinces of Siddarmark or the first mainland member of the EoC. (Which isn't a bad deal once the allies win the war. Expect Silkiah to join the EoC for exactly that reason.) Rahnyld has checked out mentally and his country needs him to abdicate, which is an area where I suspect Thirsk will play a part...
Merlin isn't going to give him the Big Reveal. He may explain that the ICN currently has ironclads attacking Desnair, and that even more powerful vessels will soon be sailing in Dohlar's direction, and this time they're not going to stop until they reach Gorath. Merlin will explain what they'll do to Dohlar's infrastructure and navy so Thirsk understands that the clock is ticking. (I don't expect great detail here, just a warning that Thirsk's fleet and country cannot hope to stand against the ships that are on their way.)
In the past I'm on record as stating that the second Thirsk's family disappeared, he was a dead man - although having them killed in church custody obviously modifies how long the Clyntahn will let him live. I've also said that if the Inquisition took him or his family to Zion, he'd feel that Mother Church has broken her oaths with him, that his King has broken his oath to protect him, and all that leaves is his oaths to the navy and loyalty to his country. I expect Charis would like him to continue to fill his role as the commander of the Dohlaran fleet, mostly so it will surrender as quickly as possible when complete destruction looms due to the arrival of the King Haarahlds. Cayleb & Co. don't want the body count any higher than it needs to be, inquisitors excepted, so getting the Dohlaran navy to strike its colors without having to sink half of it would be a Very Good Idea. Plus Dohlar is going to need that navy to keep the forces of the CoGA at bay. That's Thirsk's first responsibility.
His second is to his country, and he can fulfill that best by encouraging Dohlar to sue for terms as quickly as possible. Waiting until next summer may be far too late, since the Haarahlds will arrive by Spring and Hanth is already pounding down the door.
Yes, Thirsk is still on a knife edge, but he's also a figure whose triumphs and personal tragedies make him the most respected man in Dohlar. except among the Inquisition of course. I suspect that Merlin will try to convince him to use that popularity. To quietly advise his captains that he won't consider it "defeatism" to strike their colors if faced by a new type of Charisian ship which they can't defeat. (One of the City class ironclads could have taken out the entire Dohlaran fleet, so the Haarahlds aren't the only thing to worry about.) To talk to Ahlverez and work out a united front for both the army and navy. "Get us out of the jihad before our country is overrun and destroyed!"
I don't know if they could manage it, since Ahlverez has the usual cloud of defeat looming over his head at the moment, despite his competence. Their political enemies may destroy them, although some of Ahlverez's supporters are Thirsk's enemies, hence my proposed united front. The CoGA would certainly try to arrest or assassinate Thirsk, but he can remain safely aboard ship if necessary, and I don't think most Dohlarans would be too upset if open season on inquisitors were declared if the Inquisition tried a massive crackdown. A large broadsheet campaign would be helpful should that happen!
Dohlar is simply going to have to break ties with the Church of Clyntahn, or like Desnair simply ignore all orders from Zion. Right now the church is ruling it, and that needs to stop before there's no Dohlar left to save!
Keep in mind that Dohlar is geographically more isolated than most people think. It borders on Siddarmark and Silkiah, and most of the country is surrounded by mountains and water. So if it sues for peace and the allies, aided by the Dohlaran navy can keep the MHoG from invading to force it to remain in the fold, there's no way for the CoGA to stop Dohlar from going its own way, and clearly Thirsk could have a major role in that.
I look forward to his conversation with Merlin with great anticipation!
