[Spoiler] The final chapter

He might be easy to convince that Inquisition agents are enemies of Dohlar. Presumably he commands some version of Marines. He might even get some government approval if he schedules a purge for right after the next major outrage.

MisterTompson wrote:I think if he does leave Dohlar, it's most likely that he simply sits on the sidelines. He might be forced to leave out of simple self-preservation, and the chance to be with his family, but I sincerely doubt that he would truly switch sides. I just don't see him able to fight the navy that he spent so long building.

I agree.

I can see him leaving Dohlar and going to Charis, if only out of self preservation, but I can't see him taking the next step and actively leading Charisan forces against Dohlar. He's a naval commander and the Dohlarian force he's worked so hard for years to build is the only opponent Charis has in that arena of the war.

The best case scenario would be that Merlin (in whatever guise)gets him out by 'conventional' means and he ends up in a comfortable retirement someplace in the Empire surrounded by his family.

Zebadiah strikes me as a good spot for him. The Prince of Zebadiah is absolutely trustworthy, so he can keep an eye on him. It's pretty much a back water in the war, so Church intelligence ops aren't focusing on it and that means someone spotting him and reporting it back to the Church or taking covert action against him is low. With SNARC coverage on him, a rather short 'senjin' could pop up with information on a plot against him if the need arises since Nimue is just next door in Corisande.

Another option is to get him out by 'unconventional' or 'demonic/senjin' means and dump him in Nimue's Cave with Owl and Nahrmahn for company. Down side of this one is that he's now 'inside the Circle' whether he's ready for it or not and that could be a dangerous thing to happen.

Or they could get him to Nimue's Cave, throw him in a stasis pod and thaw him out after he's no longer a potential threat. This one is probably the most practical answer to the problem but it's also the most cold blooded, so you know it's not going to happen.

Ever since Maik, the reasonable and humane Inquisitor was introduced and especially after Ahlvarez starting apologizing to Thirsk in his own head and kind of becoming a sympathetic character in his own right, I've been seeing those 3 more as a cornerstone group for honorable enemies to pull Dohlar out of the war and sue for peace, that gives you most of the Navy, a large chunk of the Army and an Inquisitor to show backing of a religious nature, although not of Mother Church.

As of right now though, I don't see how either one has enough support to pull anything off yet. And it doesn't seem like Clinton is going to allow Thirsk enough time to get the support they would need either. Sounds like at least half of the royal council is still wedded to the Group of 4/Mother Church, not to mention at least some of them being bitter enemies to Thirsk and not on good terms with Ahlvarez anymore and even Duke Fern, although less willing to jump when the Church says to, does not seem near ready yet to burn Dohlar's bridges with her either.

So if that's the direction it's going to go with Dohlar, something fairly drastic will have to happen and pretty soon, to change that.

Some of Bosparan's points seemed well taken to me though. I can see Thirsk throwing over his loyalty to the Church, his to his King and country, if given no other choice, since those have about ground into dust his own honor. And he knows they are sure as hell not fighting on God's side. And I guess I could see a situation where he might even accept a position to fight his own old navy in Charis's service, if just to make sure losses are as small as possible, but I really hope not. He might be compelled to do it in certain circumstances but I think helping to kill his own, personally trained men and the other most important group other than his family, that still has the most hold on his loyalty, would destroy him afterward.

I don't think Thirsk can remain in Dohlar and survive.

Now that his family as rescue snatches the leverage that at least in its own mind the inquisition was using to keep him in line, Thirsk becomes a liability to them, a potential enemy to neutralize.

I would expect assasination.

I also don't see him switching sides. It's not hard to visualise him agreeing to leave Dohlar to put himself beyond the inquisition's reach...an extended family vacation, perhaps.

But this could have negative consequences should he wish to return and play a role once the inquisition's gone.

So, it's hard to say. I don't know how it works out...

Don

n7axw wrote:I don't think Thirsk can remain in Dohlar and survive.

Now that his family as rescue snatches the leverage that at least in its own mind the inquisition was using to keep him in line, Thirsk becomes a liability to them, a potential enemy to neutralize.

I would expect assasination.

I also don't see him switching sides. It's not hard to visualise him agreeing to leave Dohlar to put himself beyond the inquisition's reach...an extended family vacation, perhaps.

But this could have negative consequences should he wish to return and play a role once the inquisition's gone.

So, it's hard to say. I don't know how it works out...

Don

But the inquisition does not know the family has been rescued. They are presumed dead. So yeah, the inquisition might realize that they have lost a potential source of leverage. But as long as they don't realize that Charis has gained that same source of leverage, I don't think they will move against Thirsk. In the short term.

Now, in the long term? I think you're right. He can't remain in Dohlar and survive. Even if the news about his family being rescued by Charis doesn't leak, he has made too many enemies within the kingdom and has antagonized Clyntahn too much to be allowed to live. In fact, we *KNOW* from sections in HFQ that Clyntahn is starting to turn against the Dohlaran Navy. The key question is, how soon?

I see the King abdicating in favor of his son. I also see the Duke of Fern, Alvarez and Thirsk aligning to navigate around the thorough buttkicking headed their way. Dohlar needs credible military forces to leverage better terms from Charis.

If Clyntahn survives, Dohlar will get hammered by a combination of KH VIIs and Corisandians. The ICN's shore bombardment ships, the Rivers and contingents of raiding Corisandians will ravage the port cities. Siddermark will eventually arm enough men swarm over Dohlar's border. Fern knows this and he needs Thirsk and Alvarez to fend off both the ICN from the sea and Siddermark from the east. This might happen next summer or the next summer after, but it will happen.

If Clyntahn dies, Dohlar has no real incentive to kill their best naval commander. Thirsk sticks around long enough to see truce talks take place. If the talks prosper, he will build up the navy to defend against the ICN just in case purely secular reasons arise to resume hostilities.

I don't see Thirsk going anywhere.

Stormy wrote:Ever since Maik, the reasonable and humane Inquisitor was introduced and especially after Ahlvarez starting apologizing to Thirsk in his own head and kind of becoming a sympathetic character in his own right, I've been seeing those 3 more as a cornerstone group for honorable enemies to pull Dohlar out of the war and sue for peace, that gives you most of the Navy, a large chunk of the Army and an Inquisitor to show backing of a religious nature, although not of Mother Church.

As of right now though, I don't see how either one has enough support to pull anything off yet. And it doesn't seem like Clinton is going to allow Thirsk enough time to get the support they would need either. Sounds like at least half of the royal council is still wedded to the Group of 4/Mother Church, not to mention at least some of them being bitter enemies to Thirsk and not on good terms with Ahlvarez anymore and even Duke Fern, although less willing to jump when the Church says to, does not seem near ready yet to burn Dohlar's bridges with her either.

So if that's the direction it's going to go with Dohlar, something fairly drastic will have to happen and pretty soon, to change that.

Some of Bosparan's points seemed well taken to me though. I can see Thirsk throwing over his loyalty to the Church, his to his King and country, if given no other choice, since those have about ground into dust his own honor. And he knows they are sure as hell not fighting on God's side. And I guess I could see a situation where he might even accept a position to fight his own old navy in Charis's service, if just to make sure losses are as small as possible, but I really hope not. He might be compelled to do it in certain circumstances but I think helping to kill his own, personally trained men and the other most important group other than his family, that still has the most hold on his loyalty, would destroy him afterward.

As long as Clyntahn is alive and has any influence in Dohlar, Thirsk can no longer live and work openly there. Possibly the seijins--i.e., not Merlin or Nimue directly--can negotiate with him to go underground, join with groups like the Sisters of St. Khody, or do something else. (Vaguely along the lines of the last "cliffhanger" with Aivah.)

Possibly he comes to some sort of accommodation with Charisans to go somewhere/stay home and be a neutral power taking in all those forces whose morale is clearly breaking in following the Jihad. This would involve killing off all inquisitors in the vicinity, but that is no dealbreaker any more, I think.

Possibly something else--hell maybe a Napoleonic-style coup to take over Dohlar if conditions break just right. Napoleon didn't really have wide support politically either before the coup. But in any case he simply cannot go on as he has. That option is just plain gone.

If you think how large stagnant empires fall--and the Church is designed to be both as all encompassing and as totally stagnant as any in history--breakups into regional entities led by local strong figures is pretty common. That may be where he is headed if he cannot go the join Charis route. Charis wouldn't need to fight Dohlar to conquer it at all in this sort of scenario.

I think the folks have a good point about him not switching sides.

That said, I can't see him leaving to become some sort of "gentleman farmer" in exile, either. He's got too much invested - by oath, birth, and sheer work - in his country to just leave.

The current situation of the Jihad makes it *much* more inviting to Dohlar switching sides *soon*. Their king is less than involved in reigning, their council obviously has some folks on it who are less than enthusiastic with the Jihad and the direction the Church is taking. There's a minor heir to the throne who could probably be "guided" into whatever his regency council might want to do.

Alvahrez is, for all intents and purposes, the only experienced field commander they have left, and I suspect he's more than just a bit disillusioned by the Jihad and the Church as well. Thirsk and Duke Fern are the navy. Maik could easily become the Church interface, and he's not especially fond of what the Inquisition is doing, either.

If those all got together, I could easily see Dohlar pulling out of the Jihad, and actually even potentially switching sides. After all, Charis doesn't *require* it's allies to join it's Church; there are plenty of "Temple Loyalists" throughout the Empire, and probably still some in Siddarmark for that matter - at least ones that didn't incite or participate in violence there.

Dohlar could remain true to the *core* teachings of Mother Church at this point, just ignoring the Vicarate and the commands coming out of Zion, and still become part of the alliance.

I don't really see Dohlar going it's own way a la Desnair, however. It's way too exposed at this moment to do so.

Thirsk has little if any loyalty left to his King and none at all to the Church of Clyntahn. Thirsks King has betrayed his honor by turning over prisoners to the inquisition and betrayed Thirsks family by turning them over as well. Any loyalty Thirsk has left is to his navy and his country.

However broken and dispirited Thirsk is at the moment, I don't see him retiring to a quiet life in the countryside somewhere in the Charisian Empire. Thirsk will perk up a lot when Merlin tells him his family is still alive.

I see two likely courses of action for Thirsk. First joining with his military and political allies for a coup d'etat and taking Dohlar out of the jihad. Either declaring Dohlar a neutral state or outright joining the Empire of Charis. While this would give Dohlar a huge economic boost through trade with the EOC, it would also cause Clyntahn to divert a large part of the MHOG to attack Dohlar. Second, Thirsk could take a few of his friends and allies to Charis with him to protect them from the wrath of Clyntahn and form a Dohlaran government in exile. A Dohlaran exile government could denounce the lies and the actions of Clyntahn and his inquisitors in Dohlar, maybe cause rebellion or a guerilla war in Dohlar and take it out of the jihad that way.

Either of these courses of action would allow Thirsk to retain his primary loyalties to his family, his country and his navy and to do everything he could to save Dohlar from the destruction that would result from Dohlar staying in the jihad on Clyntahn's side. If Thirsk needed any further convincing or motivation , a quick trip to see the King Haarald class should do the job.

I'm leaning towards the "organize a coup" option (against the Church, not necessarily against the King). I think that there's no way Thirsk would take service with Charis, his loyalty to his country is to strong for that.

He might be willing to seek asylum in Charis, but I think that would be a last resort for him since it would mean abandoning the officers and men of the Dohlaran Navy (and Clyntahn would probably do a major purge of the navy to be on the safe side if Thirsk defects).

Given that I can definitely see him organizing a coup to move Dohlar to at least a neutral stance.