Ramifications from HFQ- Speculations-Spoilers!

PeterZ wrote:Indeed so. Still, we have text that Clyntahn recognizes Rayno as one of the exceedingly rare members of the inquisition who will tell him things he does not want to hear. Replacing him will not be easy and Clyntahn recognizes this. Regardless of what The Fist of God writes, the value if the working relationship that has developed between Rayno and Clyntahn is something Clyntahn has come to rely on. Changing chief subordinates in these sorts of turbulent times is not something Clyntahn will do lightly. Certainly not based on a statement from people trying to destroy you.

My problem with your assertion here is your assumption that Clyntahn will act rationally. His connection with both rationality and reality has become more and more hesitant as the situation declines. Thus he seeks more and more direct control to try to bend reality the way he wants it to be. That's why he becomes increasingly dangerous to Maigwair and Duchairn.

Don

Clyntahn believes his motives are congruent with God's. That belief will definitely encourage him into being irrational. That doesn't mean he doesn't recognize reality, that means only that his expected outcome of unfolding events will generally support his goals. I agree that as the outcomes do not support his goals, he will try to take more and more direct control of events.

In short Clyntahn will tend to do what he thinks best or comes most naturally to him and expect the outcome to be positive with respect to his goals. That sort of irrationality is not inconsistent with what I assert.

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Indeed so. Still, we have text that Clyntahn recognizes Rayno as one of the exceedingly rare members of the inquisition who will tell him things he does not want to hear. Replacing him will not be easy and Clyntahn recognizes this. Regardless of what The Fist of God writes, the value if the working relationship that has developed between Rayno and Clyntahn is something Clyntahn has come to rely on. Changing chief subordinates in these sorts of turbulent times is not something Clyntahn will do lightly. Certainly not based on a statement from people trying to destroy you.

My problem with your assertion here is your assumption that Clyntahn will act rationally. His connection with both rationality and reality has become more and more hesitant as the situation declines. Thus he seeks more and more direct control to try to bend reality the way he wants it to be. That's why he becomes increasingly dangerous to Maigwair and Duchairn.

Don

n7axw wrote:With his family no longer present to serve as leverage over him, I don't think he can survive in Dohlar.
Don

Oh. Key insight there. Clyntahn does not want a free man's service. Thirsk is too brave to be controlled by fear and too honest to be controlled by blackmail. He's also too honorable to be an unquestioning Clyntahn follower. He's a great man to have on your side, of course, and only a psychopathic control freak could think otherwise.

Further, Clyntahn's got to be suspicious about what happened to Thirsk's family. Anyone think Clyntahn believes in bad luck?

Here's a random point. Wouldn't a completely loyal officer and son of the church feel obliged to report a visit from an enemy agent and, he is supposed to believe, a demon? Is there any way for Merlin to convince anyone he's not a demon while preserving the Great Secret?

Expert snuggler wrote:

n7axw wrote:With his family no longer present to serve as leverage over him, I don't think he can survive in Dohlar.
Don

Oh. Key insight there. Clyntahn does not want a free man's service. Thirsk is too brave to be controlled by fear and too honest to be controlled by blackmail. He's also too honorable to be an unquestioning Clyntahn follower. He's a great man to have on your side, of course, and only a psychopathic control freak could think otherwise.

Further, Clyntahn's got to be suspicious about what happened to Thirsk's family. Anyone think Clyntahn believes in bad luck?

Here's a random point. Wouldn't a completely loyal officer and son of the church feel obliged to report a visit from an enemy agent and, he is supposed to believe, a demon? Is there any way for Merlin to convince anyone he's not a demon while preserving the Great Secret?

Clyntahn knows he no longer has leverage with Thirsk. Thirsk knows Clyntahn no longer has leverage with Thirsk. EVERYONE knows Clyntahn no longer has leverage with Thirsk. Thirsk knows that his head is on the chopping block whenever Clyntahn wants it there. Thirsk knows (without proof as of the end of HFQ) that the Church has lied about what happened to his kin. IMHO, when Merlin tells Thirsk that his kin are safe, he will have the proof he needs to confirm 100% that the Church has lied and any remaining loyalty Thirsk feels for A) his king and B) the Church will disappear. I see him disappearing from Dohlar pretty quickly and ending up in Charisian hands. When he physically SEES that his kin are safe, he will become a devout reformist. Mark my words.

Did anyone else find this entire discussion somewhere from out of left field all of a sudden.

The first thing I thought of was that an independent PICA did not have to be cryogenically preserved, so the 30 or 40 year limit on human cryo storage is not important if the 1000 year visit is from an independent PICA....

If OWL could build one, how many could the Hamilcar after the war of the fallen?

I just spent the better part of the last week reading Safehold. I re-read LAMA while I was waiting for HFQ to come in and I'm glad I did. While I didn't have any mega-revelations during the re-read, I did get reacquainted with the maps and armies that were in play. Which helped me out tremendously as I found the maps in HFP to be of very little value in terms of me tracking stuff. For example: I still can't find Claw Island on any map, except the one where it is by its lonesome (like Avalon?). Also, I can find neither this other bay besides Spinefish in the North that the Allies have apparently taken in support of Green Valley, nor can I find where Talis Island is exactly to put put the naval movements in perspective along with the actual narrows the Dohlarans used to mousetrap the Charisian squadron. That said, reading the one-two-nutcheck the Allies dished out in practically real time (or slightly faster) was very entertaining. Plus HFQ is a good book regardless.

But, I digress and move onto my ramifications bit of the post. This will cover the Might Host, Zion, Dohlar, Desnair, and the Allies.

First up, the MHoGatA is gearing up more frantically than the Reds with the lend-lease loans from the US. As many have said before, the also appear to be competently led. Here are my concerns, no matter how competent this Harchong commander, or any subordinate of his, is they are untested and unbloodied. Yes, he saw the best move he could make in terms of fortifying this year and building up his supply base during this abbreviated campaign season in prep for next year. Yes, that is irritating from the Allied perspective. But he's also yet to be engaged in the field and whether or not the doctrines passed onto him from Temple officers and non-coms from defeated Loyalist armies--nevermind those new rockets and sling-grenade tactics--remains to be seen.
Is he dangerous? Absolutely. Is this as dangerous as Charis was when they changed the nature of warfare on the land and seas simultaneously? No. For one, they may have in depth historical data since Creation via the Temple, but the Inquisitors are highly unlikely to share that intell. Plus, the Allies have better historical data that predate the Temple. Who's got better research to go on? My last point on the MH concerns his logistics. Yes, he's building up a stockpile, but is it the necessary equipment to deal with the Winter? True, they're Harchongese and used to pressing on in terrible Winters with worse conditions. That doesn't change the fact that they're at the end of a long and strained supply chain, especially with the Canals now beginning to freeze up again. They have the weapons and the food to get them through, but I haven't seen textev that says they have the Winter gear to give their troops like GV's got. Furthermore, if he doesn't drill his men--and drilling his men in those conditions will lead to many, many casualties without the proper gear despite their Pasquelite's best efforts--all his training will atrophy. He's got the numbers to make up for it in absolute terms, but they'd essentially revert to the way they were mid-late LAMA. He also doesn't have the luxury of a rear-area to train his commands with the new rocket Artillery and integrate them efficiently like the Allies enjoy. That said, his sheer size is enough to give any commander pause, but I really don't think it's going to be as bad as the Cayleb and the others think. Plus, its not like Mother Church has a big brother to help like the Soviets had the US in WW2. Hell, Mother Church is Big Brother.

Next, the Zion episodes. Well, I finally got my wish. Got to see some more of Horrible Clyntahn's temper tantrums. Though I did find them to be less comic relief than in earlier books. Pity that.
I think the comparison of him being a hybrid of Stalin and Hilter is very plain to see. At this point, he has to do something about Duchairn and Maigwair. His Inquisition has lost too much ground, influence, and (dare I say it) prestige to leave them in place. Granted, his first attempt to cull Maigwair's supporters ended worse than he'd have liked and those two used it to their advantage. Unfortunately, Clyntahn and the Inquisition still control the Temple and Zion, and its security, themselves. Still, he has to do something about them to truly pull a Hitler and Stalin and liquidate/force retire their Army's command structure. That said, likening his Agents Inquisitor to the Nazi SS is problematic. O sure, they got the concentration camps manned by their version of the Totenkompf and the Gestapo, but they're nothing remotely similar to the Waffen SS (the military branch of the SS that was very different from the concentration camp SS). In fact, I've seen no textev that there is a truly military arm of the Inquisition that could replace the Temple Guard Army the way Hitler wanted the Waffen SS to replace the Heer (Army) and the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht (Supreme German Command).
Finally, Rayno. Yes, he's commit ed to Clyntahn, but so was Himmler. Remember, Hitler even called him "Loyal Heinrich." Yet, even Himmler in a waning days of the Battle of Berlin tried to go behind Hitler's back and set up a meeting with Eisenhower to negotiate the ceasing of hostilities in the West and South and the surrender and parole of the German Armies, including the Waffen SS, engaged there. Hitler, of course would be either dead or incapacitated by this point. Himmler hoped that those formations, now backed by Western Allied support, would be thrown into the East and drive the Soviets back. Even he could see that the West was only allied with Stalin out of convenience and thought that they would still need his SS to maintain law and order in Germany after the war. I can see something very similar happening with Rayno, or at least making him a Himmler-like character in that regard.


Dohlar.
Dohlar's days are numbered even moreso than Mother Church's. Dohlar could only field and maintain her army and navy via subsidies from the Church. The Church is running out of that money to keep issuing those subsidies, however wisely Dohlar has spent it. Even their capture of the Dreadnaught won't change that. In fact, I believe it'll only exacerbate the crisis. Even when they do figure out all her dirty little secrets, they won't be able to duplicate it. How would they? They don't have the funding. They may be able to scrounge up the man/woman power to do it, but they don't have the raw materials or the natural resources to invest in that kind of R&D. They could either repair their navy's battle damage from capturing the ironclad, training their reinforcements, and keep Rychtyr's army supplied or they can invest in the reverse-engineering and duplicating the Dreadnaught as best they can. To be clear, repairing the Dreadnaught would be part of the "repairing their navy's battle damage" part of that last sentence. But aren't they in for a shock when they discover that Charisian guns have been made to penetrate that much armor just in case of times like these. I believe that little tidbit was announced in either HFF or MT&T.
Then, there's that critical, but subliminal, scene where Thirsk is talking to his subordinate and brings out the lighter. He even remarks that "says something about" the EoC's economy and industrial output if they find the time and resources to make things like that when literally everything Dohlar, and the Church for that matter, has been thrown into the war effort and /only/ the war effort. Dohlar may be the single securlar power that thus far has been able to go toe-to-toe with the EoC, but that changes as the Church becomes more desperate economically. That's a simple mathematical equation and is more of a question of when than if at this point.
Say Dohlar asks for terms at this point. They are certainly in a position of strength from which to be doing that along their borders in both the Navy and the Army at this time.There's opportunity there, but it is a quickly fleeting one, especially with the pending attack on the canal through Silkiah. Once that falls, Dohlar will be besieged all but boxed in and chiseled away into nothing however slowly that may be. If they sue for terms and are able to get them, they certainly will be in the best spot to be a post-war economic and industrial challenger to the EoC and RoS, but that in contingent on Dohlar being left mostly unmolested in terms of her industry and geographic positioning (as in the EoC doesn't raze and take her major shipyards and costal cities/settlements). Plus, with her merchant fleet largely intact and simply sitting in the Gulf of Gorath, and the only power that can say that, how many Mainland powers would want to use her instead of EoC hulls after the war?
But they have to do that NOW. I, for one, wouldn't be surprised if Merlin's conversation with Thirsk at least touches on those points.

Desnair. That empire is gone. They have almost nothing to use as a bargaining chip or leverage the way Dohlar still has. They're going to be forced to sue for terms, if only so that they can put the fires out along the coast. The one thing they do have is the Grand Duchy of Silkiah. Silkiah has been portrayed as either a client state or satrapy of the EoD. If the empire moves quickly and either expells, kills, or captures the Inquisitors within those borders, they can offer the intact canal to the Allies and throw in any captured Inquisitors to sweeten the deal. This is certainly a desperate gambit, but a legitimate and potentially very strong one. The quicker the EoD is neutralized the quicker Dohlar is isolated, and that opportunity I outlined above disappears. If they can do it with little or no loss of life or materiel from the Allies perspective, so much the better. Plus, its not like Charis doesn't have the wooden hulls to keep the pressure on the EoD to compel their compliance with such an accord. See? Charis's conventional galleon fleet isn't reduced to merely target practice yet! Additionally, Desnair's privateers either disappear or become nothing but outright pirates (I highly double the Allies will honor whatever Letters of Marque they have at that point). Charis, if I remember from OAR, has very strict policies regarding piracy. In spite of Cayleb's house being descendant from pirates.

Finally, the Allies.
Much as those on here will probably curse and slander me for it, I believe they made a big mistake in making the object of GV's campaign the taking of the concentration camps and maintaining his forward positions. Granted, he could only do this after both Church armies had been eliminated, but he should have pressed as much as he could towards the Holy Langhorne Canal. By the Blitzkrieg strategy that they're using, those camps would have fallen into their hands out of sheer momentum. Would more of the inmates have died? Probably, but dealing with an upcoming army numbering 1.5 million, with a reserve army of an additional 500,000 coming, I think he should have taken the change to chip off that 50,000 that was sent forward and taken better field position for the upcoming winter and spring campaigns. The republic reinforcements coming up through both Northland and Glacierheart would have taken care of the camps en route. If they were going to do what they did, they should have divided their force into Corps and withdrawn both towards the Navy's forward and fortified position the Bay behind Green Valley and towards New Northland Province. They would take the liberated inmates with them, shorten their supply lines, and create two very powerful commands with which to entice the MH and her reinforcement/subordinate commands into a battle of their choosing. Hell, they might even get away with reducing the effectiveness of their new rockets in the process, but that's merely optimism speaking. Plus, they'd be able to have more time to both set up delaying actions against the MH and take care of the 200,000 or so Temple Loyalists still running amok like Hitler's Gestapo.
I also don't think their industrial output is as shaken after the Delthak incidient as we're led to believe. They have at least dozen, if not two, more industrial nodes coming online within the month or so throughout the empire and even some in the republic. That should be able to more than make up for Delthak's temporary setback and still get the King Haarhald up before 5 months passes. Transporting those materials would be a copper-plated b***h, but I find it hard to believe it wouldn't be worth it.
As far as Merlin potentially going rouge, I agree that he needs to stop treating Nimue with kid gloves and trying to protect her. That said, if he was going to go rouge, he'd have done it already. Frankly, I'm more worried about him pulling a Data in Star Trek First Contact. It would be entirely too possible for Merlin to deactivate his emotions when he's hunting Inquisitors and turn them on after the fact, if he even remembers or wants to. He might logically consider the fear of the guilt that might overwhelm him should he reactivate them. That would be very dangerous and scary indeed. Case and point, when him and Nimue were rescuing Thirsk's family, I don't know that there were all that many Inquisitors aboard. Most of those sailors' only crime was that they were Navy of God personnel would had the misfortune of shipping Thirsk's family to Zion for Godly un-Godly purposes. They honestly didn't deserve the "pitiless eyes" Merlin gazed upon them as he slaughtered them in the hatch. I still believe they'd deserved to die though on simple grounds of they were enemy combatants in an ongoing war.

From a strictly military point of view, it was a mistake and they knew that when they made the decision.

But being true to who they are they could do no other.

And the thought just occurred to me...

We learned that a lot of the Charisian navy is tied up with convoy escort duties for the wind-powered supply galleons.

I think that when the Haaralds launch and are proven, Charis will have the opportunity to use the same hull planform to create "Cargo Haaralds". The basic Haarald battleship has what... something like an 11,000 ton displacement IIRC? With the weapons and "innards" removed, the basic hull with minimal topsides would make a truly remarkable steam-powered cargo vessel (think "Liberty Ship") - not subject to the vagaries of wind and tide, and able to outrun pretty much anything under sail, be it galleon, galley, schooner, or screw galley. To be successful at escaping a potential commerce raider, you only have to be one knot faster than he is in a stern chase!

Expert snuggler wrote:From a strictly military point of view, it was a mistake and they knew that when they made the decision.

But being true to who they are they could do no other.

Then the strategy should have allowed for it and they should be setting up for a fighting withdrawal against the MH. That way they can try to out maneuver them and chip away at them slowly but surely.

WeberFan wrote:Clyntahn knows he no longer has leverage with Thirsk. Thirsk knows Clyntahn no longer has leverage with Thirsk. EVERYONE knows Clyntahn no longer has leverage with Thirsk. Thirsk knows that his head is on the chopping block whenever Clyntahn wants it there. Thirsk knows (without proof as of the end of HFQ) that the Church has lied about what happened to his kin. IMHO, when Merlin tells Thirsk that his kin are safe, he will have the proof he needs to confirm 100% that the Church has lied and any remaining loyalty Thirsk feels for A) his king and B) the Church will disappear. I see him disappearing from Dohlar pretty quickly and ending up in Charisian hands. When he physically SEES that his kin are safe, he will become a devout reformist. Mark my words.

Why would he think that? At this point in time, the church, along with everyone else, believes that everyone on the ship was lost, so basically they are not lying, simply mistaken. Covering up the rescue of Thirsk's family was the whole point of the exercise of blowing the ship up after killing most of the crew.