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Path to Darius (Spoilers)

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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by cthia   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:12 pm

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n7axw wrote:The RMN has had a hobby of collecting worm holes and junctions as of late...

Could it be that the break would come when it seized Felix? I'm not aware that they know about it, but that could come as a consequence of mucking around Mesa and following up on leads developed there.

I don't have any trouble imagining the RMN paying a visit to Mannerheim as a result of info gathered from a stray computer or a disgruntled individual who got left behind on Mesa when he should have been lifted out on Houdini...

None of this sounds likely, but I suspect that when the onion starts to unlayer, it will because of something very unlikely indeed.

Don

Ditto. Because the Demon Murphy is not biased and has no friends.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by cthia   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:20 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
SWM wrote:We know that Manticore does not know about the Felix Junction. No one left on Mesa knows about the Felix Junction, either. Almost no one on Mannerheim knows about the Felix Junction. The Mesan Alignment has been extremely careful not to leave clues around concerning the Felix Junction. They have successfully hidden the Felix Junction for over a hundred years.

And of course even if they do eventually find and seize it that doesn't necessarily lead them to Darius.

Losing the Felix wormhole junction would inconvenience the MAlign, but they could still get to and from Darius; they'd simply have to take longer by going through hyperspace instead of using the wormhole.


But holding a junction, or terminus, doesn't give you any useful information about the other terminus. You can't measure even a rough bearing towards it, much less a range estimate. You can determine how many termini there are, but you don't know a damned thing about where they are until after you've gone through them. And going through the Darius terminus is certain to get you very very dead.


At best you can hope forcing them to travel through hyperspace might eventually lead to some indirect clues about the location of Darius. If you can spot traffic coming from it then you might be able to analyse it and slightly narrow down its location. Or potentially even trail a ship back to it (of course that doesn't work if they've got streak drive and you don't). But this is all a long shot.

Not saying that you aren't right, but I'm just curious, does textev explicitly state that the MAlign are constructing traditional naval ships of war other than the cowardly ships of war we've seen? Even so, wouldn't that just make them just as vulnerable to GA fire as say the SLN?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by munroburton   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:12 pm

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Theemile wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:A thought here:

Stars run about 4,000 stars per 100 ly cube. Wormholes are typically a few hundred ly. That means that simply checking every uninhabited star within range isn't an impossible task by any means. One destroyer is adequate, it doesn't need to ever cross the hyper threshold. Pop in, look for the electronic emissions of an inhabited world and leave. If you find an inhabited world not listed as such you come back loaded for bear.


The longest "known" wormhole is >900 lightyears - this gives a sphere with a radii of say 1000 light years. this gives a region of ~4x10^9 cubic light years. Your number gives 4 stars per .1 light year cube, so we can say there are ~1.6x10^9 stars in the region to check.

Have fun - Good luck and start soon.


Why I advocate not destroying as much of Frontier Fleet as possible. Even obsolete hulls can scout.

What you do is send each ship allocated to check out the maximum number of systems they can based on their bunkerage. Cruisers could cover hundreds of them in a single voyage. If any do not report in as expected or even greatly overdue, you send a pair of more capable ships down the same route to check more carefully.

If those do not return either, that's when you send a ship to each location on that route. It's a slow, lengthy process of elimation, but controlling the wormhole network allows the ships to go on arcing courses in the Verge, so saving some time on return voyages.

1,600,000,000 stars(about 1.5% of the Milky Way, incidentally) with, let's be generous and say 10,000 scouting ships that can visit 100 systems in six months. Those ships would visit two million star systems each year, so... it should only take 800 years to rule every last one of them out.

Ah well. So much for that idea. I still think it's the only option if the Alignment doesn't make any more mistakes or the GA simply can't dig up any effective sources of intelligence, though.

cthia wrote:Not saying that you aren't right, but I'm just curious, does textev explicitly state that the MAlign are constructing traditional naval ships of war other than the cowardly ships of war we've seen? Even so, wouldn't that just make them just as vulnerable to GA fire as say the SLN?


Yup, it's in there somewhere. The RF members are to use their SDFs as the Alignment's backbone, with the Spiders of Darius as an ace up their collective sleeve.

Elsewhere in textev, it says that Solarian observers were present with both Manticoran Alliance and PRH forces throughout the first war. They therefore saw both sides of the weapon and doctrine revolution.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mannerheim was amongst the observers and their SDF already has podnought designs drawn up, with plans for constructing modest numbers of them. They may be limited to Cataphracts for now, but Manticore's podnoughts have already radically changed their pod designs(capacitor, fusion, apollo) at least three times, even if they did need a semi-major refit to maximise Apollo's effect.

All the Alignment needs to do is wait until the secret of the missile drive ring baffle finally leaks out and the RF Navy can upgrade. Even with only cataphract pods for now, having podlayers and improved fire control(and missile defense) will give them the advantage over standard SLN and SDF units.
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:18 pm

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cthia wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:And of course even if they do eventually find and seize it that doesn't necessarily lead them to Darius.

Losing the Felix wormhole junction would inconvenience the MAlign, but they could still get to and from Darius; they'd simply have to take longer by going through hyperspace instead of using the wormhole.


But holding a junction, or terminus, doesn't give you any useful information about the other terminus. You can't measure even a rough bearing towards it, much less a range estimate. You can determine how many termini there are, but you don't know a damned thing about where they are until after you've gone through them. And going through the Darius terminus is certain to get you very very dead.


At best you can hope forcing them to travel through hyperspace might eventually lead to some indirect clues about the location of Darius. If you can spot traffic coming from it then you might be able to analyse it and slightly narrow down its location. Or potentially even trail a ship back to it (of course that doesn't work if they've got streak drive and you don't). But this is all a long shot.

Not saying that you aren't right, but I'm just curious, does textev explicitly state that the MAlign are constructing traditional naval ships of war other than the cowardly ships of war we've seen? Even so, wouldn't that just make them just as vulnerable to GA fire as say the SLN?

Jonathan did not say that the Mesan Alignment was building ordinary ships of war. What he said was that going through a wormhole into a defended terminus will get you dead. Wormholes can be defended by mines, missile pods, fortresses, and/or ships. Regardless of whether they are building ordinary warships, do you really think the Alignment would neglect to put defenses on the Darius terminus?
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by cthia   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:36 pm

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cthia wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:And of course even if they do eventually find and seize it that doesn't necessarily lead them to Darius.

Losing the Felix wormhole junction would inconvenience the MAlign, but they could still get to and from Darius; they'd simply have to take longer by going through hyperspace instead of using the wormhole.


But holding a junction, or terminus, doesn't give you any useful information about the other terminus. You can't measure even a rough bearing towards it, much less a range estimate. You can determine how many termini there are, but you don't know a damned thing about where they are until after you've gone through them. And going through the Darius terminus is certain to get you very very dead.


At best you can hope forcing them to travel through hyperspace might eventually lead to some indirect clues about the location of Darius. If you can spot traffic coming from it then you might be able to analyse it and slightly narrow down its location. Or potentially even trail a ship back to it (of course that doesn't work if they've got streak drive and you don't). But this is all a long shot.

Not saying that you aren't right, but I'm just curious, does textev explicitly state that the MAlign are constructing traditional naval ships of war other than the cowardly ships of war we've seen? Even so, wouldn't that just make them just as vulnerable to GA fire as say the SLN?

SWM wrote:Jonathan did not say that the Mesan Alignment was building ordinary ships of war. What he said was that going through a wormhole into a defended terminus will get you dead. Wormholes can be defended by mines, missile pods, fortresses, and/or ships. Regardless of whether they are building ordinary warships, do you really think the Alignment would neglect to put defenses on the Darius terminus?

I was assuming a ship can go through under caution carrying little or no momentum ready to HTFO first sign of trouble. Besides, can't they travel in pairs?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by kzt   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:53 pm

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cthia wrote:I was assuming a ship can go through under caution carrying little or no momentum ready to HTFO first sign of trouble. Besides, can't they travel in pairs?

If you transit a WH with hostile active defenses on the other side you die. It's been clearly stated by David that you likely cannot successfully force a defended WH at all, and if possible at all you need to be willing to get a huge number of your people killed. Without knowing what is on the other side you'd essentially be marching your troops into a woodchipper.
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by cthia   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:08 pm

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:I was assuming a ship can go through under caution carrying little or no momentum ready to HTFO first sign of trouble. Besides, can't they travel in pairs?

If you transit a WH with hostile active defenses on the other side you die. It's been clearly stated by David that you likely cannot successfully force a defended WH at all, and if possible at all you need to be willing to get a huge number of your people killed. Without knowing what is on the other side you'd essentially be marching your troops into a woodchipper.

Is there any way we can minimize the vague quantity of "huge" like sending in a minimally crewed freighter?

By the way, what are the crewing requirements of a freighter? Significantly less than a warship?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:15 pm

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cthia wrote:
SWM wrote:Jonathan did not say that the Mesan Alignment was building ordinary ships of war. What he said was that going through a wormhole into a defended terminus will get you dead. Wormholes can be defended by mines, missile pods, fortresses, and/or ships. Regardless of whether they are building ordinary warships, do you really think the Alignment would neglect to put defenses on the Darius terminus?

I was assuming a ship can go through under caution carrying little or no momentum ready to HTFO first sign of trouble. Besides, can't they travel in pairs?

Cthia, I'm certain you read previous threads about how easy it is to defend a wormhole terminus. Have you forgotten?

To summarize:
1) When you go through an unknown wormhole, you have no idea where you end up, and no idea where the return entrance of the wormhole is. It can take days to survey the far side of the wormhole to determine how to get back.

2) When you go through a wormhole, you use the hyper generator. Before you can go back through the wormhole, or enter hyperspace, you have to cycle the hyper generator. It takes 20 minutes for a superdreadnought to cycle the hyper generator.

3) When you go through a wormhole, you have to keep to a very narrow lane, both inbound and outbound. It takes from 30 seconds to 3 minutes to exit the lane. During that time, you are partially in the wormhole, and must have Warshawski sails up. That means you have no impeller wedge, and no sidewalls. You also cannot launch any craft or missiles; they would be destroyed by the grav flux of the wormhole instantly.

4) The ship coming through can only use grasers, but the defenders can fire missiles from outside graser range, from pods, ships, or fortresses. The defenders can also put graser mines inside graser range, ready to attack an enemy coming through the wormhole. The ship coming through has no sidewalls to protect it from the attack, and no impeller wedge to protect the vulnerable ventral and dorsal surfaces.

Enemy ships coming through a wormhole are dead meat, if you set up your defenses properly.

See the FAQ, under the Honorverse questions "Could a Peep attack through the Manticore Wormhole Junction succeed?", "Could you build an armored shell encasing a ship such that it could survive a transit through a defended wormhole?", and "Why doesn't the Grand Alliance simply attack through the Torch Wormhole?" There is also a thread with an extensive post by David about attacking through a wormhole: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2928&p=61949&hilit=wormhole+attack#p61949
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:20 pm

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Oh, I forgot one other point. While you are in the exit lane, you have to move very slowly, and cannot dodge. You basically spend from 30 seconds to 3 minutes as a sitting target with no sidewall or impeller or missiles.
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Re: Path to Darius (Spoilers)
Post by SWM   » Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:25 pm

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Here's another argument from David against a wormhole assault. This is the thread I meant to point to above. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3107&p=68448&hilit=wormhole+attack#p68448
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