A cool encounter

I agree that is indeed Charis' motivation. That motivation might well lead to a spectacular morass of misery in Dohlar. As I see it, doubt will be seeping into the Dohlaran psyche.

The piety that made Dohlar such a staunch CoGA supporter will now be questioning just which side God is on. Seijin roam the earth again. The Writ's documented foot soldiers of God Himself are universally aiding the heretics. Not only that but the heretics are winning while behaving in ways that are much more consistent with the values God's Writ demands of all his children.

Are the aristocrats all that and a bag of chips they have always claimed to be? Sure some are solid leaders, but those aristocrats treat those that follow them as if those followers are worth something. the remainder that do not have brought an angry Charis and Republic against dohlar. That war appears to be misguided. Why couldn't our illustrious leader recognize that IT WAS misguided? Are they not supposed to be wiser than the common folk? Do they not have more information that we do? If they can do no better that we in recognizing this apparent truth, why keep the aristocrats in leadership positions?

Depending on how that plays out, having the Allies disinterested in who rules Dohlar might well lead to a bleeding ulcer in the heart of the Gulf of Dohlar. I am uncertain if invading and imposing a temporary political structure to ease the transition back into self sovereignty or staying outside the borders and letting the Dohlarans settle their own hash is the better option.

n7axw wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens to Rahnald... I'm not quite ready to completely write him off.

I think Charis should stay out it and let Dohlar decide who rules Dohlar. Charis' only interest in the matter is getting Dohlar out of the war.

Don

Thou art a spoilsport, Lyonheart.

That whimsical approach would indeed not fit any likely confrontations between DE and Ahlvarez. Perhaps that scenario would go under ways the two would NOT meet?

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

But if Slaytyr is distracted or busy elsewhere, because sooner or later he's going to be just too late to save the day at least once, if RFC lets the law of averages operate.

Remember too that Ahlverez might just try to shoot DE instead since he thinks he's the one that dictated Kyrbysh's false reports [snippet #20], grinning evilly while he did it, when DE may still know nothing about them.

Granted if there were such a scene I think Merlin could save the duke, but could he stop a bunch of other ICA officers and/or guards from shooting Ahlverez in time to save him?

Again I think its obvious that Ahlverez is being saved to rescue Dohlar from the Go4 when the allies really put the screws on the kingdom.

So I think its quite possible that RFC has saved this potential scene for when Dohlar formally surrenders to the allies in Gorath City, and Zhapyth Slaytyr is there as part of the allied party, because I do think they will meet again.

By then Ahlverez may be in a better mood to just laugh it off, or see it as the hand of god, since it worked out for the best; since I expect he's one of the new king's regents by then.

Time and luck can do that.

L

PeterZ wrote:I agree that is indeed Charis' motivation. That motivation might well lead to a spectacular morass of misery in Dohlar. As I see it, doubt will be seeping into the Dohlaran psyche.

The piety that made Dohlar such a staunch CoGA supporter will now be questioning just which side God is on. Seijin roam the earth again. The Writ's documented foot soldiers of God Himself are universally aiding the heretics. Not only that but the heretics are winning while behaving in ways that are much more consistent with the values God's Writ demands of all his children.

Are the aristocrats all that and a bag of chips they have always claimed to be? Sure some are solid leaders, but those aristocrats treat those that follow them as if those followers are worth something. the remainder that do not have brought an angry Charis and Republic against dohlar. That war appears to be misguided. Why couldn't our illustrious leader recognize that IT WAS misguided? Are they not supposed to be wiser than the common folk? Do they not have more information that we do? If they can do no better that we in recognizing this apparent truth, why keep the aristocrats in leadership positions?

Depending on how that plays out, having the Allies disinterested in who rules Dohlar might well lead to a bleeding ulcer in the heart of the Gulf of Dohlar. I am uncertain if invading and imposing a temporary political structure to ease the transition back into self sovereignty or staying outside the borders and letting the Dohlarans settle their own hash is the better option.

When all is said, Dohlar's probably the most progressive of the Temple's allies. But saying that, I don't think Charis can add constructively to the situation as an occupying power. That would turn into a tarbaby for Charis. The people who must face Dohlar's issues are the Dohlarans...without outsiders interference.

All Charis really needs here is for Dohlar to give up on the jihad.

Don

No Don. Charis needs Dohlar to get out of the jihad AND avoid complete anarchy. If Dohlar turns into a haven for bandits and pirates, Siddermark will still needs soldiers guarding the borders.

They need to find a way to help one side win after Dohlar renounces the jihad.

PeterZ wrote:No Don. Charis needs Dohlar to get out of the jihad AND avoid complete anarchy. If Dohlar turns into a haven for bandits and pirates, Siddermark will still needs soldiers guarding the borders.

They need to find a way to help one side win after Dohlar renounces the jihad.

I don't think anarchy is really a risk. Dohlar has been a stable state for a long time. I could see a short, sharp civil war.

Peter, the EOC simply can't go around playing St John the Rescuer for everybody.

Don

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:No Don. Charis needs Dohlar to get out of the jihad AND avoid complete anarchy. If Dohlar turns into a haven for bandits and pirates, Siddermark will still needs soldiers guarding the borders.

They need to find a way to help one side win after Dohlar renounces the jihad.

I don't think anarchy is really a risk. Dohlar has been a stable state for a long time. I could see a short, sharp civil war.

Peter, the EOC simply can't go around playing St John the Rescuer for everybody.

Don

Yeah. It's unfortunate, but the military burdens of living next to a failed state are, in a time like this, acceptable compared to trying to be a nation-builder that everyone starts off hating already.

If Charis (or Siddarmark, or, heck, Silkiah, if they get armed in time) can do something to help ease transition for Dohlar without occupation, without boots they have to keep on the ground - or even put there in great numbers briefly - that may be worth it, both from the military economy and moral perspectives. But much more than that can't be justified from that military economy one, and when you're in the midst of a jihad, the moral perspective has to accept some vetoes from the military economy one.

I'm sure Thirsk has been thinking about a coup very, very quietly inside his own head for some time now, and Ahlvarez (and Maik!) probably would get on board with some variations quickly enough. So there's at least hope for that short, sharp event instead of "Bleeding Dohlar".

Heck, snipping the Church out has been practiced successfully in Charis, Chisholm, Emerald, Zebediah, and Tarot by now, and hacking it into line in Corisande and Siddarmark has been managed at least. So Silkiah and Dohlar have precedents. Maik even probably has reports from the losing side about how it went in each of those, which could be handy for teaching how to do it on the Reformist side. With the suspicion on Thirsk, Maik may very well be the best instigator of a coup in Dohlar - he's very well placed to neutralize the Inquisition and any Temple Guard units, and he could even get midnight visits by Seijin Abrahms for help and encouragement, when Merlin can be confident he's ready to take those steps. Thirsk and Ahlvarez are almost certain to be the public faces and secular heads of a coup, but Maik is critical to keeping the Church neutralized in moral and physical terms.

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:No Don. Charis needs Dohlar to get out of the jihad AND avoid complete anarchy. If Dohlar turns into a haven for bandits and pirates, Siddermark will still needs soldiers guarding the borders.

They need to find a way to help one side win after Dohlar renounces the jihad.

I don't think anarchy is really a risk. Dohlar has been a stable state for a long time. I could see a short, sharp civil war.

Peter, the EOC simply can't go around playing St John the Rescuer for everybody.

Don

We shall disagree in that I believe anarchy is a risk. We agree that occupying is not an option. That leaves aiding one preferred side against the rest should anarchy threaten.

Such a meeting would be so completely out of character for Slaytyr/Merlin, RFC would never allow it to happen.

XofDallas wrote:Such a meeting would be so completely out of character for Slaytyr/Merlin, RFC would never allow it to happen.

But it would be soooooo FUN!

JeffEngel wrote:Yeah. It's unfortunate, but the military burdens of living next to a failed state are, in a time like this, acceptable compared to trying to be a nation-builder that everyone starts off hating already.

If Charis (or Siddarmark, or, heck, Silkiah, if they get armed in time) can do something to help ease transition for Dohlar without occupation, without boots they have to keep on the ground - or even put there in great numbers briefly - that may be worth it, both from the military economy and moral perspectives. But much more than that can't be justified from that military economy one, and when you're in the midst of a jihad, the moral perspective has to accept some vetoes from the military economy one.

I'm sure Thirsk has been thinking about a coup very, very quietly inside his own head for some time now, and Ahlvarez (and Maik!) probably would get on board with some variations quickly enough. So there's at least hope for that short, sharp event instead of "Bleeding Dohlar".

Heck, snipping the Church out has been practiced successfully in Charis, Chisholm, Emerald, Zebediah, and Tarot by now, and hacking it into line in Corisande and Siddarmark has been managed at least. So Silkiah and Dohlar have precedents. Maik even probably has reports from the losing side about how it went in each of those, which could be handy for teaching how to do it on the Reformist side. With the suspicion on Thirsk, Maik may very well be the best instigator of a coup in Dohlar - he's very well placed to neutralize the Inquisition and any Temple Guard units, and he could even get midnight visits by Seijin Abrahms for help and encouragement, when Merlin can be confident he's ready to take those steps. Thirsk and Ahlvarez are almost certain to be the public faces and secular heads of a coup, but Maik is critical to keeping the Church neutralized in moral and physical terms.

"Snipping the church out" worked for the islands that comprise the EoC because they are islands, and the ICN rules the seas. That allowed the reformists to take control of the church and bring in the Church of Charis with no threat of outside retaliation. (Other than the Rakurai attacks, but no threat of invasion.)

Dohlar is a mainland realm. Fortunately it borders on Siddarmark, who just wants it to stay home, and Silkiah, which is unarmed. So it could try to defang the Inquisition and reform the church within its borders - but Clyntahn could extend the jihad to include Dohlar as well and send the equivalent of the MHoG through the Border States, then through the South March Lands and into Dohlar to keep the natives in line.

The EoC and Siddarmark could find themselves in the strange position of defending Dohlar against the jihad, with what's left of the Dohlaran army as an ally.