League Survival

Sigs wrote:

SWM wrote:Yes, they should have adapted and postponed. In fact, they believed they were adapting. They thought they could get things back on track. Moving up Oyster Bay was one of the adaptations they thought would help. If they had caught the Python Lump, they might have been right.

And now that Oyster Bay has effectivly failed overall it throws the rest of the plan and RF’s mission out the window. By failed BTW I mean it failed to get the goal it wanted as opposed to failing in the technical portions of the mission.

Agreed.

SWM wrote: It only became apparent in the last five years that the plan was seriously off the rails. There were signs before that, but the Alignment thought they could get things back on track. There has not been enough time for the Alignment to build a huge fleet after they realized there was a problem.

Which means that the part that the RF is to play is not possible anymore. If the RF does not have a fleet that has the means to fight the GA then pretty much anything it does can draw negative attention to itself. And worst of all from their point of view is that they might be discovered by the Andermani, the GA or the super spy team when they go hunting for more clues, so basically the RF/MA has to build a fleet as fast as possible but do it in such a way as to not draw attention.

I don't agree. Your idea of the role the RF was supposed to play is very different from what David has told us. The RF has no reason to fight the GA. In fact, the RF is exactly the kind of system that the Grand Alliance will be looking for to create stable peaceful zones in the former Solarian League. The RF won't be fighting the GA--they will be collaborating with the GA.

SWM wrote: Yes, they should have postponed things. There have been numerous discussions on this forum about the mistake the MA made by not postponing things and hiding under a rock until they could strike properly. But they didn't, and the end result is that they do not have the huge fleet that you think they should have.

To me, this is the plan b they should have had in place from the start. It seems that their plan rested on alot of “if’s” and at anyone point the plan would have failed and there would need to be a plan B. Right now they cannot fight the GA openly and a repeat of Oyster Bay might verywell not work either because of precautions by the GA which means that the MA is up a creek without a paddle,

Perhaps they should have. But they didn't. The Mesan Alignment is not perfect--indeed, they have been wearing a very curious set of blinders for hundreds of years.

SWM wrote: As for the Renaissance Factor, they were never supposed to protect other systems from Manticore. Even under the revised plan they are not supposed to protect other systems from Manticore. The RF is likely to want to be friends with Manticore. The plan is and was for the RF nations to be the nuclei around which new interstellar confederations would start to grow.

But systems that have a major SLN shipyard, or a shipyard from their own SDF would have a similar idea as well. So either the MA leaves them alone and a bunch of successor states rise up from the League with their own shipbuilding capabilities and their own fleets or people start asking why others keep getting their stuff blown up while nothing happens to the RF.

Again, I don't understand what you think the RF is supposed to be doing. What makes you think (a) that the RF won't have some of their stuff blown up, and (b) that the RF will care if some other successor states rise up? This is all part of the plan. Besides, there aren't as many systems with major SLN shipyards as you seem to think. The RF will be among a very small number of former SL systems with significant naval forces and shipyards. They don't need to be the only ones.

After some period of time, each of the RF systems will have gathered neighbors into collective defense forces (which may include some of those other systems with shipyards and SDFs). At that point, the RF systems can publicly start pushing for a larger collective--not necessarily a unified state, but an alliance, bringing all of the local RF alliances together into one big alliance. At that point, they will be the biggest thing in the former Solarian League. The groups which formed independent of the RF efforts will either join the new collective, or become irrelevant as the new Renaissance Factor rises.

SWM wrote: Yes, most League members could build their own naval shipyards if they tried. And some undoubtedly will. But the RF systems already have navies, which makes them the natural leaders in organizing other systems. I expect that the RF systems will each appear to act independently, gathering together neighbors. Systems hat don't have navies can use RF navies for protection; systems that want to build their own can enter defense treaties with the RF systems. Ultimately the RF systems and their allies would probably unite in a single large alliance or confederation. Only then would the name Renaissance Factor become known.

That doesn't exclude the fact that maybe dozens of other nations with their own shipyards and SDF’s or shipyards inherited from the League will not do the exact same thing.

So just because the RF is uniting a portion of the core it does in no way remove the opportunity for other systems with the means to build their own nations and the MA can do very little about it without drawing attention to the RF members.

And I say, so what? They don't care if others are doing the same thing--all that matters is that they become the leaders which forces the direction that things develop. All of the RF systems have good reputations. Simply by the way that they go about creating their local alliances, the RF systems will set the trend for how other systems do it. And that's all they need to do at this time for the Alignment long-term plan.

SWM wrote:

Sigs wrote:You don't have to hold the entire league together, just something that gives you the best chance to (1) survive as a nation (2)last long enough to gain parity (3) give you the resources to regain lost territories. Holding all of the league systems is not likely to succeed, but a Solarian League with enough industrial might to reach technological parity and rebuild the fleet while the GA is busy with the MA might have a slight chance.

The thing is, the GA isn't really getting distracted by the MA. The GA is concentrating on the League, and will deal with the MA when and as they can.

But, of course, I the new leader of the Solarian League don't believe in the MA. If, for some reason, I do not do the smart thing and fly to Nueva Argentina, I might as well go for the rump League.

Withdraw all forces from the Protectorates. Recall all the governors. The mass confusion as all of those systems find themselves on their own in a war zone will slow the GA down some.

Work toward building a coalition of inner worlds who want to stay together. Focus on Core worlds and dedicated Shell worlds. Pump up the patriotic rhetoric: The League is the First Nation, the League must not Perish, the League is Eternal, etc. Try to get a few hundred systems fully behind the League as the oldest star nation, representing the will of the people and protector of the galaxy. Don't try to hold onto any systems that actively try to break away, and push away any that you think might poison the unity.

Do whatever is necessary to unify the remaining systems. A fleet in every system, if it will keep them happy. Get them to build shipyards in every system--maybe you can even get them to do it on their own budget, if you play it right. The construction will at least appear to help the economy. Build up the true believer angle until it becomes a refrain--We Are the League.

Pour money into R&D, partly based on intelligence data and partly on any blue-sky ideas that might pan out.

If there are any wormhole termini in the area of the rump league, work up plans on capturing it. This might involve transiting within cataphract range of the terminus with overwhelming force. If successful, mine the heck out of it, and prevent the GA from coming through it. Take only the wormhole termini necessary--the goal is to eliminate back doors into the rump league.

All of this will still fail, and if I'm smart I will know it (even if I don't believe in the MA). For one thing, the Beowulf terminus is only 40 light-years from Sol, and I know I cannot take it. That right there is a big step toward Game Over.

Actually, you might have a better chance if you could fake a shattering of the inner League. It'd be very hard to do, and to likely to turn real on you. But that, combined with pulling back on any short-term offensive moves against the GA, would make it very hard for Manticore to justify preemptive naval actions.

So if you could get the core League to publicly splinter into several smaller blocks, then go into a mutual cold-war arms race, that could cover lots of applied Naval R&D and shipbuilding. Then (and this is the very tricky part) 10-20 years later you pull a Voltron move, combine back into the League 2.0, and pool your navies into an unstoppable (and this time up to date) fleet to force terms upon Manticore.



I admit it's a very long shot (and has similarities to what the MA is trying to do with their Renaissance Factor). It's also more of a game style move than something you'd do in real life.
But it still seems marginally more likely than that you could diplomatically stall Manticore long enough for a unified large rump League to rebuild their navy into one superior to the GA's.

Manticore just had a fresh lesson in not giving a stricken enemy a second change thanks to the Saint Just ceasefire - its very unlikely they'd make the same mistake again against a strong League remnant. OTOH going for this option is likely to attack major MAlign meddling, since your fake splinters would be blocking consolidation around their carefully placed RF worlds.

kzt wrote:How long is 5 years?

It's August 1939 and you notice that things have become a bit uncomfortable in your Central European neighborhood. You can have a reasonable military capability built in a mere 5 years. Or you can sign up with someone who already has a military.

This reminds me of the situation that Great Britain faced in 1934. For over ten years: (ever since the Washington Conference of 1922 in fact) they had been applying the Ten Year Rule & automatically renewing it each year. Then Hitler came to power in 1933 & the assessment for 1934 was that there WOULD be a war within five years time; thus throwing all their previous assumptions in the dustbin.

David has noted that the SLN has used a hundred year rule. It turns out they chose poorly.

kzt wrote:How long is 5 years?

It's August 1939 and you notice that things have become a bit uncomfortable in your Central European neighborhood. You can have a reasonable military capability built in a mere 5 years. Or you can sign up with someone who already has a military.

Assuming that you don't have access to the ships and manpower right now… the league is collapsing, the SLN is disintegrating right along with them, there are still 1,800 SD's and an unknown number of lighter combatants in active service and even though many will perish in the war with the GA some will undoubtedly survive. What this means, at least to me, is that once the League and the SLN collapse SLN servicemen will be finding their own way home, in some cases with a ship. I doubt all 100+ million SLN members come from one or two worlds which means even those who do not come with a ship can acquire one from the SLN reserve of SD's/ Even assuming that a large part of the SLN reserve is so outdated that it is not worth reactivating there would be some ships who can be used without too much upgrading etc…


So assuming that there are ~10 major shipyards then we could potentially see at least as many nations rise around each shipyard not accounting any civilian shipyards and SDF shipyards etc… that is unless the RF hold all of those shipyards.

kzt wrote:So you really think the league will last 5 years? Really? What makes you think that? I would predict that it will either collapse or be involved in a war to the knife with the GA in a 2-12 months, sparked by the actions taken to prevent the secession of Beowulf.

So in my opinion the time to start building a military expired about 4 years ago. If you don't already have a real military and facilities to build more combat vessels right now you are about to find yourself as a victim unless you cut a deal with someone with substantial military force.

What happens with the remnants of the SLN? Where do they go? Do they all die? What about the ships?

It is in the GA's interest at least in the short to medium term to limit the size of successor states which means that there is next to no chance they will allow the RF to get a significant portion of the League's territory no matter how friendly they are.


And besides, I was under the impression that the RF is not going to become a united nation overnight. Appear to organized and prepared and people start asking uncomfortable question. If the plan is for the RF members to separate from the league, be on their own for a while and then "unite" then there would be a year or two at least between them separating and subsequently uniting. What about systems that inherit half a dozen to a dozen SD's plus screen? Those will give their system a fleet immediately.

The issue isn't is dealing with an organized polity, it's dealing with a bunch of guys with a lot more firepower than you have and who see you as animate toys to be exploited in their personal drama.

Consider this on a planetary scale.

So yeah, to answer someone else, if you cut a deal with a decent sized FF or BC unit that would certainly count as a reasonable military force. But it will cost you.

SWM wrote:
I don't agree. Your idea of the role the RF was supposed to play is very different from what David has told us. The RF has no reason to fight the GA. In fact, the RF is exactly the kind of system that the Grand Alliance will be looking for to create stable peaceful zones in the former Solarian League. The RF won't be fighting the GA--they will be collaborating with the GA.

And I thought the plan was for the GA to cease to exist. The RF might have not been meant to fight the GA because by the time of the RF uniting as a nation the GA member nations should not have existed individually let alone as an alliance.

SWM wrote:

Perhaps they should have. But they didn't. The Mesan Alignment is not perfect--indeed, they have been wearing a very curious set of blinders for hundreds of years.

It seems like their whole plan was designed by someone who actually hates them. Almost any other path they could have chosen would have been significantly more likely of success. It is almost like their playbook was written by someone who hates them.

SWM wrote:
Again, I don't understand what you think the RF is supposed to be doing. What makes you think (a) that the RF won't have some of their stuff blown up, and (b) that the RF will care if some other successor states rise up? This is all part of the plan. Besides, there aren't as many systems with major SLN shipyards as you seem to think. The RF will be among a very small number of former SL systems with significant naval forces and shipyards. They don't need to be the only ones.

What is the point of destroying the league if you are going to allow dozens if not hundreds of systems to form nations? If the MA does not start blowing things up soon after the League collapses chances are that by the time they decide to start blowing things up to force systems to join the RF there would be dozens if not hundreds of yards ranging from small(LAC production) to Large(SD Production), and those yards will belong to dozens of nations capable of fielding substantial fleets. The whole reason they didn't want Manticore and Haven to be able to interfere was because they wanted to take their time “uniting” humanity. There would be severe limiting factors to how many new systems that the RF can “protect” for the first few years and those limiting factors are warships. Because if the RF does not have a large fleet backing it up there a limit to how far their ships will go before new members get an IOU instead of a ship to protect their system. So if the MA is destabilizing former LEague space, the GA might see it in their best interest to stabilize as many core systems as they can and essentially guide them to unite in a bunch of mid sized nations of their own.

SWM wrote:After some period of time, each of the RF systems will have gathered neighbors into collective defense forces (which may include some of those other systems with shipyards and SDFs). At that point, the RF systems can publicly start pushing for a larger collective--not necessarily a unified state, but an alliance, bringing all of the local RF alliances together into one big alliance. At that point, they will be the biggest thing in the former Solarian League. The groups which formed independent of the RF efforts will either join the new collective, or become irrelevant as the new Renaissance Factor rises.

Assuming the GA allows any large alliance/state to arise from the successor states until the MA is destroyed.

That plan calls for time, during which people will be building the capability to build their own ships. And how exactly does the RF plan on sharing power with their new member states?

SWM wrote: Yes, most League members could build their own naval shipyards if they tried. And some undoubtedly will. But the RF systems already have navies, which makes them the natural leaders in organizing other systems. I expect that the RF systems will each appear to act independently, gathering together neighbors. Systems hat don't have navies can use RF navies for protection; systems that want to build their own can enter defense treaties with the RF systems. Ultimately the RF systems and their allies would probably unite in a single large alliance or confederation. Only then would the name Renaissance Factor become known.

That doesn't exclude the fact that maybe dozens of other nations with their own shipyards and SDF’s or shipyards inherited from the League will not do the exact same thing.
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The RF fleets are limited as you have pointed out, which means that it will take time for those fleets to expand to the point of being able to offer protection to more systems during which time dozens of major nations will rise up when core systems not under RF “protection” build their own protection and unite independently of the RF.

SWM wrote: And I say, so what? They don't care if others are doing the same thing--all that matters is that they become the leaders which forces the direction that things develop. All of the RF systems have good reputations. Simply by the way that they go about creating their local alliances, the RF systems will set the trend for how other systems do it. And that's all they need to do at this time for the Alignment long-term plan.

But the more nations that emerge, the less likely that the RF will end up being in the big chair. And as I said, all that the GA needs is string to pull on and the RF might as well start digging its own collective grave.

kzt wrote:The issue isn't is dealing with an organized polity, it's dealing with a bunch of guys with a lot more firepower than you have and who see you as animate toys to be exploited in their personal drama.

Consider this on a planetary scale.

So yeah, to answer someone else, if you cut a deal with a decent sized FF or BC unit that would certainly count as a reasonable military force. But it will cost you.

Where would all the SLN personnel go to? What about their surviving ships?

Initially there might be major core worlds who ask for GA protection until they get on their feet, and that might be granted if they are important enough. The more systems they can secure in the short term, the more systems they send their Merchant ships to the more money they get. In the short term, any large group of systems could be worthy of GA assistance.

Sigs wrote:

SWM wrote: And I say, so what? They don't care if others are doing the same thing--all that matters is that they become the leaders which forces the direction that things develop. All of the RF systems have good reputations. Simply by the way that they go about creating their local alliances, the RF systems will set the trend for how other systems do it. And that's all they need to do at this time for the Alignment long-term plan.

But the more nations that emerge, the less likely that the RF will end up being in the big chair. And as I said, all that the GA needs is string to pull on and the RF might as well start digging its own collective grave.

Well the RF is going to be a dozen or so (presumably well dispersed) new nations, each with an existing more powerful than average SDF. So each of those have a good head start on attracting not only neighbors but also remnants of the SLN navy.

Sure they likely won't be able to deploy battle squadrons in each system. But even the threat of the battle squadrons showing up to free or avenge any systems taken or raided is a heck of a lot better than most post-League systems will be able to offer in the next several years.


Plus I assume that part of the plan for those big super-stealthy LennyDets was to allow the MAlign to arrange unfortunate accidents for any system that was too successful at beginning to attract neighbors the MAlign would prefer aligning with one RF system or another. "Ah you attracted 2 squadrons of Vega class SDs. Too bad they suffered a mischief the first time they deployed out of system" If your navy's lost you're not likely to keep your allies; not in the short term chaos following the fall of the League.