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League Survival

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Re: League Survival
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:08 am

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kzt wrote:The SLN is not the same as the total military of all the worlds of the SL. Those (few) systems who maintain a decent sized navy while being a member of SL are going to be able to build their own ships and quite possibly also design their own ships.


'(A) The warship design and building industry is very much a "closed community."'

I think RFCs point here is that there is only a tight-knit community of warship builders that build all of the warships in the League, SDF and SLN alike. SDFs quite probably use SLN Designs with a few modifications; they are considered "SLN reserves" and have to maintain a high-degree of compatibility with the SLN.
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Re: League Survival
Post by kzt   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:27 am

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Weird Harold wrote:I think RFCs point here is that there is only a tight-knit community of warship builders that build all of the warships in the League, SDF and SLN alike. SDFs quite probably use SLN Designs with a few modifications; they are considered "SLN reserves" and have to maintain a high-degree of compatibility with the SLN.

I tend to doubt that the RF's fleet is built by the SLN's yards and I also question the assumption that any system is bound by the dictates of the SLN. The SL has no actual legal authority over a member system's SDF outside of an actual declared war where the legislators call up the SDFs.

If they actually ever really went to war and called up the SDF's then there might be an issue, but as far as I know this has never happened. And since the SL has existed for over a thousand years do you think any of the few systems that actually maintains a significantly capable SDF is going to care about how that will work out in practice?

Consider that the SLN has NO PLANS for how to mobilize the battle fleet reserve, do really you think the SLN has an SDF mobilization plan?
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Re: League Survival
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:33 am

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kzt wrote:you think any of the few systems that actually maintains a significantly capable SDF is going to care about how that will work out in practice?


Beowulf apparently does worry about SLN "inspection" of its SDF. At least that's the implication of not incorporating any Manticoran tech in their SDF to avoid the SLN getting a look at it.
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Re: League Survival
Post by kzt   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:43 am

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Weird Harold wrote:Beowulf apparently does worry about SLN "inspection" of its SDF. At least that's the implication of not incorporating any Manticoran tech in their SDF to avoid the SLN getting a look at it.

No the issue is that it is extremely hard to keep secrets when you have >300,000 people who know them at any given moment (and many more when you consider turnover over time), and these people are all highly mobile inside the SL.

The fact that Maya can mysteriously keep many thousands of actual SLN personnel from noticing and saying anything when they are both using extremely odd ships and technology and also fighting secret wars with significant casualties doesn't exactly add credibility to the idea that the BSDF couldn't get away with this, but whatever.
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Re: League Survival
Post by George J. Smith   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:27 am

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JohnRoth wrote:
kzt wrote:What you need protection from are pirates and war lords. You can come to some sort of political deal with the GA and other political units, you can't come to a political deal with someone who wants to paint the wall with your blood.

There are probably 10,000 active SLN ships, plus the many thousands of ships in SDFs. Do you think some might end up out of work and looking for easy picking? Many SL worlds essentially have 20 old-school LACs as their SDF. Which will last about the time of flight of the first missile salvo against a ex-SL BC. So unless you really want to submit to the first guy to show up in a real warship you need some better options. And submitting to the first guy with a real warship doesn't help you with the second guy with a real warship. Cue Tenn's "The Liberation of Earth".


And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are a fair number of systems out there that have fairly decent navies all of whose ships are "below the wall," so they're not in the "top 25" systems that have a super-dreadnaught force. We already know that Mesa has one - they had a rather nice task group of battlecruisers at Torch during Crown of Slaves. Other than that, though, everyone with a real regards them as a pushover.

That's the whole bit - the MAlign wants to break things up into small enough fragments that the resulting chaos will force most systems to align with the only remaining cohesive force - the Renaissance Factor.


IIRC one of the MA intentions was to use the Lenny Detweilers to push systems towards joining the RF.
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Re: League Survival
Post by JeffEngel   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:13 am

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kzt wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:Beowulf apparently does worry about SLN "inspection" of its SDF. At least that's the implication of not incorporating any Manticoran tech in their SDF to avoid the SLN getting a look at it.

No the issue is that it is extremely hard to keep secrets when you have >300,000 people who know them at any given moment (and many more when you consider turnover over time), and these people are all highly mobile inside the SL.

The fact that Maya can mysteriously keep many thousands of actual SLN personnel from noticing and saying anything when they are both using extremely odd ships and technology and also fighting secret wars with significant casualties doesn't exactly add credibility to the idea that the BSDF couldn't get away with this, but whatever.

There's certainly a tension there. I take it Beowulf is institutionally a bit more risk-averse than Roszak and Barregos. But more than that, Beowulf is right under the eye of the Mandarins and Battle Fleet, while the Maya Sector is off in the boondocks with mere Frontier Fleet units, and whatever they do is something the central League government can dismiss as petty, insignificant, don't-sweat-the-small-stuff OFS/FF machinations.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:06 pm

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kzt wrote:
Can.

First you need a design. How many core systems have experienced warship designers? I'll go with "not many. How many of these are aware of the realities of modern combat vs the SLN's "100-year" rule? Pretty damn few. So not many of the 800 or so core worlds will have a modern warship design ready or nearly ready for production. (Note that the RF is likely to be farther along with this than anyone else.)

True, but most of those systems have access to the SLN designs, those designs once put into construction will protect them from pirates and neighbours while allowing them to fight back on somewhat equal terms with the League.

kzt wrote: Then you need the ability to produce warships and munitions. This would presumable take only a year or two to build given the Manticore example. But there are a lot of pieces, so we'll see. This will likely be ready well before a new warship design would be, hence armed freighters if you cannot steal or otherwise obtain a full technical package on a real warship.

And many of those core systems will not only have access to the designs of the ships, in some cases they will have the yards those ships were build in. Then add as the SLN disintegrates most of those remaining ships likely wont go into piracy, some will but the majority will either remain in the system they are stationed in or they will return to the place where the majority of the crew is from. So many systems, not all but many will get some real warships, SD’s, BC’s, HC’s etc...

kzt wrote: Then you need crews. If your "navy" consists of my nominal 20 LACs you have about 1000 crew in service and maybe 5000 in support and need a hundred thousand crew and several hundred thousand support personnel. This is hard problem.

If we assume that the SLN’s split between ships of the wall and screen are similar to that of the RMN in 1905(which if I remember correctly they are not, the SLN has a higher % of lighter units than the RMN.) then that would suggest there are:
~2,300 SD’s in Battle Fleet
~9,200 Lighter units(Mostly in FF but some would be in BF)
subtract that the ~500 that were destroyed/captured by Manticore and you have 1,800 SD’s which have approximately 11,000,000 crew. The 9,200 would yield at least another 5 to 6 million crew.
So on the very low end when we admittedly know that the SLN has more lighter combatants we still come up with 16,000,000 to 17,000,000 Crew from the frontline ships. Assuming the SLN is extremely efficient there would be 3 people in uniform for everyone in a ship, but judging from everything else there would be somewhere 7 or 8 for everyone in uniform.
So Frontline ~17,000,000+
On low end support: ~51,000,000
On high end support~136,000,000

So lets take the difference and say that the SLN has ~17,000,000 Spacers in front line ships and 93,500,000 members in support.

Those 110,000,000 SLN members have to go somewhere when their paycheques start bouncing. Some will turn to piracy, some will return to the protectorates but most will go home or those from the protectorates will stay in a core/shell world. Not every system will get an influx of SLN personnel but many will which means they will have a core of people for their military(as soon as they fire all senior officers).

kzt wrote: Edit: Note that the situation for the few systems that actually design and build their own warship designs is far better. They probably also have a much larger navy to start with, but they still have the issue of understanding Haven sector capabilities. And adding more PDLCs and CMs and improving the SW are obvious steps that will help quite a bit and should be easily doable on a new design and not impossible to add to a modified SLN design.

Those few systems that have substantial fleet of their own can make peace with the GA as soon as they think they can hold off the SLN and start building more ships even if they have no hope of fighting the GA you will have a hope of surviving an attempt by the SLN to force you back into the League. Offer some neighbours to join your nation(Gives you more industrial and economic muscle) and you can pump out quite a few ships, man them and hold your own.

kzt wrote: Oh, and I'll toss this in, from http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/193/0

This is what I'd be working to set up if I was appointed dictator.

"If the Solarian League, as presently constituted, commits wholeheartedly to fighting Manticore because of "what the Star Empire did to our Frontier Fleet," for example, and if it holds together in the process, then the potential for the League to be willing to sustain very heavy losses and continue to prosecute the war becomes much higher. Once things like the concept of "national honor" get involved, and once somebody begins thumping on a lectern and shouting about how the "fundamental unity of the human race, which has protected us all from the evils of general warfare literally for centuries" is under assault, and how the loss of that fundamental unity will "inevitably lead to an unending procession of war after war between the League's successors," it's entirely possible that the League could find war with Manticore actually pulling it together into an effective interstellar government for the first time since its creation. And if that happens, then the League would be prepared to sustain very heavy absolute losses to continue the war until it attained victory."
The problem is that you would also be fighting against the people as well. It is easy for someone to talk about sacrifice and send wave after wave of men and women to their deaths against ships they cannot even touch with their weapons. It is a whole different story when they see the failure of the central government/bureaucracy in the lead up to the war and then the fact that the SLN is really not even a 3rd rate power anymore, add in economic hardship felt due to the closing of the wormholes and the withdrawal of Manticorean Merchant ships and it will be a race against time. Besides, the navy might have a thing or two to say about being send to die by the thousands as a means to unify the nation.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:10 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Sigs wrote:The majority of core and Shell worlds can build a navy to keep the pirates away so the RF is not really offering anything they cannot do themselves unless the RF/MA is planning on funding a lot of Pirate operations.


From: http://www.davidweber.net/posts/196-art ... -with.html

(12) The warship-building capacity of the SLN is concentrated in perhaps a couple of dozen major nodes. There are any number of star systems within the League which could become major warship-building centers, but they haven't been developed. This has two major implications. (A) The warship design and building industry is very much a "closed community." Not only that, but certain building centers specialize in certain types of construction and maintenance. Eighty percent of the existing yards doing active construction specialize in supporting Frontier Fleet, and build nothing heavier than battlecruisers. The yards which build the limited number of ships of the wall which are actually funded do so very slowly, partly in order to keep an experienced workforce in existence, and partly because they are very "traditional" in their design and construction techniques. This slow building rate, by the way, also drives up the cost of new SoW construction to something at least two or three times that of the SKM, far less the GSN. (B) Because there are so few major building nodes, the entire SLN's current building capacity constitutes one huge potential point source failure. In effect, the SLN has an entire succession of Grendelsbanes, of varying degrees of vulnerability. Again, this is something Frontier Fleet is aware of and has pointed out (without much effect) to Battle Fleet.


Some League members have ship yards for their own SDF's, other have ship yards for civilian construction, just like it seems that the SKM didn't have problems switching between producing civilian ships and military ships then it shouldn't be too much of a problem in the grand scheme of things for a system to start pumping out light combatants at first while they build up their capability of building Ships of the wall.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:16 pm

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kzt wrote:The SLN is not the same as the total military of all the worlds of the SL. Those (few) systems who maintain a decent sized navy while being a member of SL are going to be able to build their own ships and quite possibly also design their own ships.

And those few systems will essentially compete with the RF because they now have a Fleet and some will offer neighbours the chance to join their new nation.


The RF is not supposed to spring up quickly right? They have to individually withdraw from the league, likely not all at the same time and there has to be a show period where they struggle individually before uniting etc… In that year or 2 or 4 or 6, there would be the opportunity for systems that withdraw to build up their capabilities. Granted they will not all do it but some will and then there is the fact that unless the GA destroys all SLN ship building capabilities someone will end up with quite large shipyards that are. Each yard represents a rallying point for a new nation, a new fleet. With each yard you will get the in system workforce and their ship designing expertise.
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Re: League Survival
Post by SharkHunter   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:18 pm

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Late to the core thread, but here's my thoughts...

Assuming I really want this to work, first thing I do is get a message to Beowulf space with credentialling and asking or the GA to send a plenipotentiary with a contingent of treecats to come to Sol first to find who needs to be hung/shot/imprisoned, and who can stay. I want my house cleaned and the MAlign far far away.

Next thing is, OFS and the Gendarmarie are out of business, period. At the point of a gun/starship and all FF officers get the same treecat review and end game. It's the only way the Verge doesn't come apart in an MAlign exploitable explosion.

Then I start requesting a bit of loosening of Laccoon as each big core around a wormhole is "de-corrupted". If I get all that done... hmmm... a better constitution that gets the bureacracy back under balance of powers control?

Maybe in a few years I can even come out of hiding...
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