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League Survival

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Re: League Survival
Post by JohnRoth   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:30 pm

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kzt wrote:What you need protection from are pirates and war lords. You can come to some sort of political deal with the GA and other political units, you can't come to a political deal with someone who wants to paint the wall with your blood.

There are probably 10,000 active SLN ships, plus the many thousands of ships in SDFs. Do you think some might end up out of work and looking for easy picking? Many SL worlds essentially have 20 old-school LACs as their SDF. Which will last about the time of flight of the first missile salvo against a ex-SL BC. So unless you really want to submit to the first guy to show up in a real warship you need some better options. And submitting to the first guy with a real warship doesn't help you with the second guy with a real warship. Cue Tenn's "The Liberation of Earth".


And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are a fair number of systems out there that have fairly decent navies all of whose ships are "below the wall," so they're not in the "top 25" systems that have a super-dreadnaught force. We already know that Mesa has one - they had a rather nice task group of battlecruisers at Torch during Crown of Slaves. Other than that, though, everyone with a real regards them as a pushover.

That's the whole bit - the MAlign wants to break things up into small enough fragments that the resulting chaos will force most systems to align with the only remaining cohesive force - the Renaissance Factor.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Weird Harold   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:54 pm

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Sigs wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:At the very least, they will have Cataphracts of all sizes, ...


Besides, anything that may be presented as MA technology in their hands ...


Cataphracts aren't "MAlign Tech," they're a Technodyne development used by the SLN. Once Filareta used them against Manitcore they were established as SLN tech and anyone who has done business with Technodyne -- to buy their SDs, for example -- can be expected to have a source for them.

Granted, the only time they've been seen were as elements of a MAlign plot, and Technodyne was right in the middle of a third, but that is a small point when anyone can have them now.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:24 pm

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kzt wrote:What you need protection from are pirates and war lords. You can come to some sort of political deal with the GA and other political units, you can't come to a political deal with someone who wants to paint the wall with your blood.

The majority of core and Shell worlds can build a navy to keep the pirates away so the RF is not really offering anything they cannot do themselves unless the RF/MA is planning on funding a lot of Pirate operations.


kzt wrote:There are probably 10,000 active SLN ships, plus the many thousands of ships in SDFs. Do you think some might end up out of work and looking for easy picking? Many SL worlds essentially have 20 old-school LACs as their SDF. Which will last about the time of flight of the first missile salvo against a ex-SL BC. So unless you really want to submit to the first guy to show up in a real warship you need some better options. And submitting to the first guy with a real warship doesn't help you with the second guy with a real warship. Cue Tenn's "The Liberation of Earth".
And many in the core and shell can build real warships, plus the SLN draws it's personnel from somewhere which means that a lot of those same core and shell worlds will have a solid core of ex SLN servicemen who will make their way back, maybe not a huge number but enough, plus anyone from a verge system that wants to make their new home in a core world. By the time the RF "comes into existence" officially, going through all the steps they are planning on going many in the more industrialized systems would have similar ideas (minus going over to the MA) they would be pumping out as many ships as they can and forming nations/alliances with their immediate neighbours or important trading partners.


And besides, as you said some ex-SLN ships will become pirates but others will return home or will be split up by the successor states.

It seems to me whatever happens the RF looses unless they jump out with a scary enough fleet to offer real protection.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:28 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are a fair number of systems out there that have fairly decent navies all of whose ships are "below the wall," so they're not in the "top 25" systems that have a super-dreadnaught force. We already know that Mesa has one - they had a rather nice task group of battlecruisers at Torch during Crown of Slaves. Other than that, though, everyone with a real regards them as a pushover.

That's the whole bit - the MAlign wants to break things up into small enough fragments that the resulting chaos will force most systems to align with the only remaining cohesive force - the Renaissance Factor.

But the problem with that is that others will have the same idea as the RF, they will essentially see the League collapse and start trying to remove themselves from the League and join forces with neighbours/allies/trading partners etc… so instead of having only about half a dozen to a dozen major players you end up with hundreds or thousands.


And as the mandarins pointed out, many of those nations in the core and shell can build substantial fleets… what do you think is the first reaction for those systems when they see everything is falling apart? It would be to build as much as they can as fast as they can and they might ask for GA training assistance or protection if they are valuable enough as a potential ally.
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Re: League Survival
Post by JohnRoth   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:34 pm

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Sigs wrote:
JohnRoth wrote:
And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are a fair number of systems out there that have fairly decent navies all of whose ships are "below the wall," so they're not in the "top 25" systems that have a super-dreadnaught force. We already know that Mesa has one - they had a rather nice task group of battlecruisers at Torch during Crown of Slaves. Other than that, though, everyone with a real regards them as a pushover.

That's the whole bit - the MAlign wants to break things up into small enough fragments that the resulting chaos will force most systems to align with the only remaining cohesive force - the Renaissance Factor.

But the problem with that is that others will have the same idea as the RF, they will essentially see the League collapse and start trying to remove themselves from the League and join forces with neighbours/allies/trading partners etc… so instead of having only about half a dozen to a dozen major players you end up with hundreds or thousands.


And as the mandarins pointed out, many of those nations in the core and shell can build substantial fleets… what do you think is the first reaction for those systems when they see everything is falling apart? It would be to build as much as they can as fast as they can and they might ask for GA training assistance or protection if they are valuable enough as a potential ally.


That's what the Leonard Detweiller class SD's that Darius is building are for: systems that try that will be pounded flat by "invisible starships." Or else there will be mysterious deaths, air-car accidents and so on and so forth.

The MAlign has been planning this for a long time, do you really think they haven't seen the obvious issues and planned for them?
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:35 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Sigs wrote:
Besides, anything that may be presented as MA technology in their hands ...


Cataphracts aren't "MAlign Tech," they're a Technodyne development used by the SLN. Once Filareta used them against Manitcore they were established as SLN tech and anyone who has done business with Technodyne -- to buy their SDs, for example -- can be expected to have a source for them.

Granted, the only time they've been seen were as elements of a MAlign plot, and Technodyne was right in the middle of a third, but that is a small point when anyone can have them now.


Unless someone like say the GA starts considering that everything that has happened to Manticore to push this war forward has happened because of the MA therefore Raging Justice was a MA operation using SLN ships and personnel and that Task Force 496 was also an MA tool. If the only times the weapon has made an appearance is when the MA was behind the operation chances are that it might not be an SLN weapon. If Technodyne is the one who developed those missiles and those missiles were used in MA orchestrated operations what do you think Manticore will think about that.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Sigs   » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:42 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
That's what the Leonard Detweiller class SD's that Darius is building are for: systems that try that will be pounded flat by "invisible starships." Or else there will be mysterious deaths, air-car accidents and so on and so forth.

The MAlign has been planning this for a long time, do you really think they haven't seen the obvious issues and planned for them?


Those invisible ships lose their advantage once everyone figures out what is happening, as soon as anyone in the GA figures out how to spot them you can be sure everyone will be made aware.


As for all the assassinations and "accidents"… what would that accomplish? Convince everyone that the MA is real? If the GA is screaming from one side that the MA wants to conquer the galaxy, and people start dying under suspicious circumstances when they are trying to build up defences for their nations it might start convincing people that the GA is right. Besides the RF will be pounded in to the stone age once someone starts asking why they are the only once who can organize a nation while everyone else who tries to build a nation and a military ends up dead due to "accident" or assassination… the GA is already hyper suspicious as it is.
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Re: League Survival
Post by kzt   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:03 am

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Sigs wrote:The majority of core and Shell worlds can build a navy to keep the pirates away so the RF is not really offering anything they cannot do themselves unless the RF/MA is planning on funding a lot of Pirate operations.

Can.

First you need a design. How many core systems have experienced warship designers? I'll go with "not many. How many of these are aware of the realities of modern combat vs the SLN's "100-year" rule? Pretty damn few. So not many of the 800 or so core worlds will have a modern warship design ready or nearly ready for production. (Note that the RF is likely to be farther along with this than anyone else.)

So they are going to be designing at best some sort of rip-off of the modern SLN ships (modified to support their local industry instead of the SLN's logistics tail) or more likely essentially armed freighters, as the design time for a full warship is very long, longer than the time to build warship/missile production facilities.

Then you need the ability to produce warships and munitions. This would presumable take only a year or two to build given the Manticore example. But there are a lot of pieces, so we'll see. This will likely be ready well before a new warship design would be, hence armed freighters if you cannot steal or otherwise obtain a full technical package on a real warship.

Then you need crews. If your "navy" consists of my nominal 20 LACs you have about 1000 crew in service and maybe 5000 in support and need a hundred thousand crew and several hundred thousand support personnel. This is hard problem.

Many armed crappy ships with mediocre missiles manned by amateurs learning on the job certainly beats 20 obsolete LACs, but it will be a bloodly learning curve.

Edit: Note that the situation for the few systems that actually design and build their own warship designs is far better. They probably also have a much larger navy to start with, but they still have the issue of understanding Haven sector capabilities. And adding more PDLCs and CMs and improving the SW are obvious steps that will help quite a bit and should be easily doable on a new design and not impossible to add to a modified SLN design.

Oh, and I'll toss this in, from http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/193/0

This is what I'd be working to set up if I was appointed dictator.

"If the Solarian League, as presently constituted, commits wholeheartedly to fighting Manticore because of "what the Star Empire did to our Frontier Fleet," for example, and if it holds together in the process, then the potential for the League to be willing to sustain very heavy losses and continue to prosecute the war becomes much higher. Once things like the concept of "national honor" get involved, and once somebody begins thumping on a lectern and shouting about how the "fundamental unity of the human race, which has protected us all from the evils of general warfare literally for centuries" is under assault, and how the loss of that fundamental unity will "inevitably lead to an unending procession of war after war between the League's successors," it's entirely possible that the League could find war with Manticore actually pulling it together into an effective interstellar government for the first time since its creation. And if that happens, then the League would be prepared to sustain very heavy absolute losses to continue the war until it attained victory."
Last edited by kzt on Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: League Survival
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:20 am

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Sigs wrote:The majority of core and Shell worlds can build a navy to keep the pirates away so the RF is not really offering anything they cannot do themselves unless the RF/MA is planning on funding a lot of Pirate operations.


From: http://www.davidweber.net/posts/196-art ... -with.html

(12) The warship-building capacity of the SLN is concentrated in perhaps a couple of dozen major nodes. There are any number of star systems within the League which could become major warship-building centers, but they haven't been developed. This has two major implications. (A) The warship design and building industry is very much a "closed community." Not only that, but certain building centers specialize in certain types of construction and maintenance. Eighty percent of the existing yards doing active construction specialize in supporting Frontier Fleet, and build nothing heavier than battlecruisers. The yards which build the limited number of ships of the wall which are actually funded do so very slowly, partly in order to keep an experienced workforce in existence, and partly because they are very "traditional" in their design and construction techniques. This slow building rate, by the way, also drives up the cost of new SoW construction to something at least two or three times that of the SKM, far less the GSN. (B) Because there are so few major building nodes, the entire SLN's current building capacity constitutes one huge potential point source failure. In effect, the SLN has an entire succession of Grendelsbanes, of varying degrees of vulnerability. Again, this is something Frontier Fleet is aware of and has pointed out (without much effect) to Battle Fleet.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: League Survival
Post by kzt   » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:27 am

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The SLN is not the same as the total military of all the worlds of the SL. Those (few) systems who maintain a decent sized navy while being a member of SL are going to be able to build their own ships and quite possibly also design their own ships.
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