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(SPOILERS) Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"

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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by USMA74   » Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:43 am

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Philip Stanley wrote:You want rampant speculation? Try this:
What if all the snippets that RFC has given us aren't part of the final book at all!!! What if he's just playing with our heads, and wrote all those snippets just to jerk us around, and none of them have anything to do with the actual plot and action in HFQ?
How's that for rampant?
Philip Stanley


You sir have an evil mind. :twisted:
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by n7axw   » Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:14 pm

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USMA74 wrote:
Philip Stanley wrote:You want rampant speculation? Try this:
What if all the snippets that RFC has given us aren't part of the final book at all!!! What if he's just playing with our heads, and wrote all those snippets just to jerk us around, and none of them have anything to do with the actual plot and action in HFQ?
How's that for rampant?
Philip Stanley


You sir have an evil mind. :twisted:


Maybe that's the explanation...he's projecting on to RFC what he would do himself!

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by Expert snuggler   » Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:44 pm

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Back on topic, without the threat of the OBS, would Merlin's risk-benefit calculations about operating against the Temple change?

There would still be some scary unknowns which could be devastating to the allies psychologically, and this is at heart a psychological war, with all respect to the dead and maimed.

But without strategic weapons, whatever secrets the temple has are less dangerous.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by SWM   » Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:26 pm

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Expert snuggler wrote:Back on topic, without the threat of the OBS, would Merlin's risk-benefit calculations about operating against the Temple change?

There would still be some scary unknowns which could be devastating to the allies psychologically, and this is at heart a psychological war, with all respect to the dead and maimed.

But without strategic weapons, whatever secrets the temple has are less dangerous.

No, not really. His concerns about acting against the Temple have nothing to do with the OBS. It is entirely the uncertainty of what detectors and defenses the Temple itself has, and what lies beneath the Temple.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by Expert snuggler   » Sun Aug 30, 2015 2:06 pm

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All this discussion is going to an interesting place.

There seems to be wide agreement that Merlin wouldn't do anything much different in the short to medium term if the OBS were out of the picture.

Long term, it can reasonably be expected to interfere with starting the use of electricity. But unless someone comes up with a widely believable rationalization right away, all the human characters will be dead before that can happen.

In the meantime, maybe it doesn't matter except as something for Merlin to be afraid of.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by BobG   » Sun Aug 30, 2015 4:31 pm

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Expert snuggler wrote:As I remember the book, Merlin was worried that he was taking a horrible chance doing something as un-stealthy as Mach 5.

He really should have gone above atmo then flown to St. Agatha's. I believe he could have gone faster, and with less visibility.

I discovered, to my surprise, that the old Phoenix missile (Air-to-Air, 100 miles range) would actually climb to high in the atmosphere, boost to max speed, then coast high and dive on it's target. I tend to think as a general idea that at significant distances, that works better that straight flight.

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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by CRC   » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:10 am

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I'm not convinced that the OBS is the only "arrow in the quiver" of the temple.

It seems rather odd that the Stone of Schuler contains large exe files, and that the activation point is under the temple, and add to that you keep having Shan-Wei's alternative strategies popping up everywhere, Chohiro was not an idiot.

The point being, there is undoubtedly a whole of bunch of tech stashed somewhere for the 1000 year visit. And there is no proof that the Hamilcar was actually destroyed. Remember the fab facilities on the Hamilcar is what overwhelmed the "Fallen" and the little fabbers that they stashed around the planet.

While Merlin's cave and resources might seem to be a lot right now, compared to to what was used against the Fallen, its not even close. If the temple has access to the resources used against the Fallen, Charis doesn't stand a chance it.

Methinks Charis' monopoly on high tech is about to get trumped.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by Expert snuggler   » Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:24 pm

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With tech and numbers both against them they will lose.

After the War Against the Fallen, the Langhornistas would have had every reason to do just what you suggested, leaving preparations behind for a high-tech war. The OBS is like the cockroach in the kitchen: you've got to figure that if you found one then there are more.

Yes, the Cave of Wonders fabbers are the TF equivalent of a hobby shop. That's why I think Merlin should bootstrap more TF-tech manufacturing capability.
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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by BobG   » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:36 pm

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CRC wrote:
I'm not convinced that the OBS is the only "arrow in the quiver" of the temple.

It seems rather odd that the Stone of Schuler contains large exe files, and that the activation point is under the temple, and add to that you keep having Shan-Wei's alternative strategies popping up everywhere, Chohiro was not an idiot.

The point being, there is undoubtedly a whole of bunch of tech stashed somewhere for the 1000 year visit. And there is no proof that the Hamilcar was actually destroyed. Remember the fab facilities on the Hamilcar is what overwhelmed the "Fallen" and the little fabbers that they stashed around the planet.

While Merlin's cave and resources might seem to be a lot right now, compared to to what was used against the Fallen, its not even close. If the temple has access to the resources used against the Fallen, Charis doesn't stand a chance it.
First, I'm not sure that the resources available against the fallen were as substantial as you suggest. The war did go on for quite some time, with significant losses on both sides. I have wondered if a hypothetical someone or something had woken Nimue up, then would using the cave's resources have been enough to change the outcome?

I also have no insight into when the Hamilcar was no longer available, be it destroyed, sent into a very long elliptical orbit, or buried in an ice moon (call it Hoth for lack of a better name :^). I would tend to think it was still around when the war against the fallen began, because that was immediately after Armageddon Reef, and a very short time later when Langhorn was vaporized.
Methinks Charis' monopoly on high tech is about to get trumped.
Of course, if Nimue's command access was not disabled (since she wasn't around to need to have it disabled), and she is the only surviving Naval Officer...

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Re: Rampant Speculation Based on "What If"
Post by hanuman   » Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:03 pm

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AnalystJohnny wrote:
Expert snuggler wrote:I don't know which should be first but there are some surprising things you can do without electricity.

Lasers can be chemically pumped.

You might even be able to build nuclear reactors, but there wouldn't be much point and they're vastly more difficult than coal. And I can't think of a way to detonate an implosion bomb without electricity. Little Boy would work but good luck doing enrichment without electricity.

Diesel airplanes for logistics and bombing might be the first choice. Diesel trucks might actually be better. Most supplies will still go by ground and mechanical transportation would greatly improve things.

Whatever the technology, it would have to have immediate military uses the way things are now. Scratch lasers, as valuable as they'd be for industry.

Come to think of it, what is the OBS preventing other than electricity? We don't know.

EDIT: Oh my, just thought of something. What if it doesn't profane the sacred fire to use it in the service of God? Nobody knows it, but of course the Temple does so that could be used as a precedent once it's revealed.

Then you could have a radio transmitter broadcasting Archbishop Maikel's sermons, and new hymns based on tunes that get stuck in people's heads. Smuggle crystal sets into non-Charis areas, which everyone will want because of the catchy tunes. Transmit shortwave. Safehold must have an ionosphere.

To the extent the war is in defense of the Church of Charis, the next part of the camel to go under the tent would be military communications.

Once people got used to that, stretch it further and treat the radio network like the Church's semaphore, sneaking in commercial uses. Or just abuse the religious aspects. "Ships in port today include the Duty, with a cargo of copies of the Writ for the faithful, and the Marigold carrying relics of Saint Khody". The fact that they had other cargo, every merchant would already know, so it would be commercial news as well.

The shortwave could be used for propaganda. Look up the etymology of the word.


I'm not sure the whole radio thing would be a very good idea. Even without the OBS you still have the Gbaba lurking out there. Wouldn't want any stray transmissions no matter how weak bringing them in before humanity is ready to fight them again.


Didn't the colony coonvoy travel 10 000ly before they even began looking for a suitable planet to colonize? I remember something like that. If so, the Ghana really are not a concern wrt the use of radio, after this long. Radio waves travel at the speed of light, so it'd take ten thousand years at least for Safeholdian radio broadcasts to reach Sol and beyond.l
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