Build a Fleet!

Sigs wrote:Well, if I have 500-600 SD’s I can take the entire “organization”...

If you're going to be absurd, there's no point in the discussion.

How are you, a single star nation, going to pay for 500-600 SDs -- and presumably appropriate lesser ships -- when you're arguing that Manticore and/or the GA won't spend time or resources to support a mutual defense force.

Manticore and/or the GA already have that many SD(p)s while you have to build or buy yours.

Manticore, and by extension the GA, have committed to creating and honoring mutual defense and trade treaties with every successor state they can. That implies an intent to establish Joint Military operations with treaty partners. Doing that as up to 1,500-1600 individual successor states wouldn't be practical, so Manticore's stated intent implicitly requires nodal forces where multiple treaty partners can work with Manticoran/GA forces.

Relax wrote:From the OP in short

Erls wrote: Basically - there is no specific threat (PRH, SL, AE, etc..) in mind. Only a strong collection of systems in an otherwise completely disorganized galaxy composed of other large nations that may or may not be friendly, pirates, raiders, and other bad actors. How would you compose your fleet to undertake all of the tasks that come with such a position?

If the galaxy is "completely disorganized" then the Harrington Doctrine has failed completely. The goal that Honor outlined is to avoid "complete disorganization" by insuring as many independent systems as possible can defend themselves and trade peacefully with Manticore and each other.

I choose to work from the premise that Manticore, and by extension the GA, are largely successful in implementing the Harrington Doctrine, and the successor states to the Solarian League are, by and large, peacefully coexisting because there is an 800 Kilo Gorilla hanging about in the background waiting to stomp on any aggression against its treaty partners.

I also choose to work from the premise that Manticore/GA Tech is NOT the only tech spreading through human occupied space. Somebody is going to apply Spider Drive technology to LACs and somebody is going to combine Manticoran Multi-drive tech with "Technodyne's" Multi-Stage tech to produce a four or five stage system defense missile such as my notional Huacha uses. A missile too big for shipboard deployment, or free-floating pods/forts, but ideal for moons and asteroids.

Also, in order to accommodate a fleet built from scratch, I've assigned the Spider-LACs and Huacha systems as legacy systems formed and owned separately by the 20 systems forming a NEW star nation that has no other Legacy navy.

The NEW Nation has to deal with a limited budget/tax base so can't build SDs in sufficient numbers to deter agression, so I opted for two BCL/BB formats with two of each in each member system and smaller ships in each system -- plus extras for participation in the local MDF task force if they choose to invite a NEW nation to participate.

The presence of a substantial Neutral military force in the sector means that there is at least an arbiter available to mediate conflict before it turns military. A threat to my security will, in all probability, appear to be a threat to the stability of the whole sector -- including local MDF participants.

If/When I wind up invited to participate, then the "substantial military force" can be added to my defensive consideration as a multiplier of that extra system's allotment of hyper-capable ships deployed to strengthen and support the MDF Node.

If, by chance, there is no viable MDF taskforce, then I would have to turn my diplomats loose on creating one. Whether the resulting joint task force or my NEW Nation needs to build/buy SDs will have to be negotiated. In any case, every ship deployed in support of the MDF will be repaid by the support of all the ships of the MDF when required.

In essence, participation in a MDF is an insurance premium paid against possible future need.

Dude, Manticore IS a single star nation. Every thing outside Manticore A is a cost center, not a profit center. It is also clearly not running in anything close to full military mobilization. Notice the whole "do we declare war" plot. What is is running out of are people, not money. So yeah, it's completely possible for a single star system to build a fleet larger than the RMN.

This is the fundamental issue with the whole Harrington plan. Every single SL core system can match the RMN if they decide to, and 40-50 Core systems working together can beat them like a drum. As they are something like 800 core systems IIRC, that means 1/50th of the SL is deadly threat.

kzt wrote:This is the fundamental issue with the whole Harrington plan. Every single SL core system can match the RMN if they decide to, and 40-50 Core systems working together can beat them like a drum.

That is the whole point of the Harrington Doctrine -- create and maintain a state where there is no reason for 40-50 successor states to band together and "beat them like a drum."

If the Harrington Doctrine is better than 51% effective, the Manticore has a thousand or more systems (whether independent or members of some larger star nation) linked with trade and mutual defense treaties, the aggregate force is theoretically greater than the other 49% or less remainders of the League.

I expect the Harrington Doctrine to make trading partners and mutual defense assets out of far more than the minimum of 51% -- i.e. I expect 75%-80% success or 1500-1600 individual star systems, either as singletons or mid-sized multi-system polities.

kzt wrote: So yeah, it's completely possible for a single star system to build a fleet larger than the RMN.

No doubt a single star system can out-build the RMN, but that wasn't my assertion -- can a single star system out-build 75%-80% of the old Solarian League plus the SEM and/or the GA? Especially without the financial resources of the Manticoran Junction and Manticoran Merchant Marine?

Relax wrote:

Sigs wrote:
Ok I get it, you are basing your entire defence on the honour system... I assume you are not well versed in current affairs and oh I don't know ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY.

Sigs, don't bring up History now...

Gotta watch out for historical precedent on things like warfare and population statistics. After all if you adhere to warfare history of mankind, then you might have to adhere to deomographics of the 20th century as well.

If you cannot comprehend simple argument that is by no means my fault.
What part of my position did you have most problems with understanding?

Sigs wrote:What part of my position did you have most problems with understanding?

Most of it. I don't speak Troll very fluently.

Weird Harold wrote:If you're going to be absurd, there's no point in the discussion.

Did you even read the thread from the beginning or are you in the habit of making ridiculous suggestions without even reading? Read post #2 on page #2, my assumption is that I have a dozen heavily industrialized systems and 10-15 less industrialized systems and my main combat strength lies in 500 SD’s and 700 BB’s and BC’s, why because 22-27 moderately to heavily industrialized systems can support a fleet such as that considering that more than 50% of my SD’s and BB/BC’s are in reserve status. Your position is absurd because you cannot explain how you will convince nations to foot the bill for your defense and how likely it is that out of the other 80 systems in your so-called sector you will not get one, not even one aggressive nation that wants what you have.

Weird Harold wrote: How are you, a single star nation, going to pay for 500-600 SDs -- and presumably appropriate lesser ships -- when you're arguing that Manticore and/or the GA won't spend time or resources to support a mutual defense force.

Why are you assuming I am a one system nation? Read my scenario, I have 22 systems with a dozen of them being heavily industrialized while the other 10 not as heavily but still well industrialized. Which means that each and every system within my nation will have to support roughly 23 SD’s and 70% of those SD’s are in reserve.

Weird Harold wrote: Manticore and/or the GA already have that many SD(p)s while you have to build or buy yours.

And your point is?

I am not suggesting that I will go to war with Manticore or the GA, I am suggesting that I have the means to defend myself with, and if I chose to be aggressive I have the means to steamroll nations like the one you are suggesting as long as I don't step on Manticore’s interests.

Weird Harold wrote: Manticore, and by extension the GA, have committed to creating and honoring mutual defense and trade treaties with every successor state they can.

Is it Manticore and the GA or is it one Admiral’s suggestion/brain storm? What one admiral thinks does not necessarily translate the same when the electorate comes in to the equation. Signing a defence pact with all is unreasonable and unlikely since many might not want to have anything to do with the GA and Manticore, so unless Manticore and the GA are willing to go to war to “force” them to agree to a treaty it dont happen.

Weird Harold wrote: That implies an intent to establish Joint Military operations with treaty partners. Doing that as up to 1,500-1600 individual successor states wouldn't be practical, so Manticore's stated intent implicitly requires nodal forces where multiple treaty partners can work with Manticoran/GA forces.

Or working with as few of the major nations as you can manage in order to ensure that they keep peace and order in their neighborhoods. Having 1,600-2000 agreements with successor states is unrealistic for many reasons but most of all, it is unrealistic because it will put Manticore and the GA in a position where they HAVE to solve everyone’s problem while also paying for it all.

Weird Harold wrote:
If the galaxy is "completely disorganized" then the Harrington Doctrine has failed completely. The goal that Honor outlined is to avoid "complete disorganization" by insuring as many independent systems as possible can defend themselves and trade peacefully with Manticore and each other.

You are assuming that Manticore and the GA will adopt the so called Harrington Doctrine, just because she suggests it does not mean anyone else will buy it.

Weird Harold wrote:In essence, participation in a MDF is an insurance premium paid against possible future need.

Which you cannot guarantee will happen, because you will basically need to convince all the other nations in your sector or all of human occupied space to work together which will never work.

Weird Harold wrote:

Sigs wrote:What part of my position did you have most problems with understanding?

Most of it. I don't speak Troll very fluently.

You mean the part where 89% o the SEM does NOT have Prolong?

Or the part where 50%+ of the SEM population is past the age for prolong?

Or was it the part that 89% of the SEM's population has received significantly lower basic level of education than Manticore gives its citizens and will thus require significantly more training to get to an acceptable standard?

Or was it the part where the bulk of the wealth of the SEM rests within the borders of the old SKM which just happens to have the vast majority of tax payers and also almost all of the Qualified candidates for the navy.

So the Navy which will be fighting a war will also be required to detach significant number of training cadre in order to train recruits from Talbott and Silesia.


So can the SEM recruit 1% or more of their total population? Yes they can, absolutely.
But the problem is what would that do to the high quality of the Royal Manticorean Navy? Recruiting poorly educated individuals, in a relatively short time to highly technical fields while using a fraction of the training cadre because of demands in other theaters.

If Manticore wants to keep its navy a highly trained and elite force, it can only grow slowly and in small numbers until it achieves the needed numbers. If the RMN does not care about the quality of its crew’s any longer than it can recruit another 240,000,000 people from Talbott and Silesia.

Sigs wrote:...my main combat strength lies in 500 SD’s and 700 BB’s and BC’s, why because 22-27 moderately to heavily industrialized systems can support a fleet such as that considering that more than 50% of my SD’s and BB/BC’s are in reserve status.

If you have 50% of your main combat strength in mothballs, you've got more combat strength than you need -- and you've wasted the cost of those mothballed SDs. You're making the same mistake the SLN has made and put yourself in the position of needing competent Intelligence agencies to geive you the lead time to recommission and re-crew those reserves.

Sigs wrote: Your position is absurd because you cannot explain how you will convince nations to foot the bill for your defense and how likely it is that out of the other 80 systems in your so-called sector you will not get one, not even one aggressive nation that wants what you have.

Contributing a portion of a multi-national task force costs you the price of your contribution, but gains you the support of the entire multi-national task force at need. Your approach puts the entire cost of the equivalent force on your single nation.

Sigs wrote:Why are you assuming I am a one system nation?

I said single star nation, NOT a single star system. Your star nation is slightly larger than mine.

Sigs wrote:

Weird Harold wrote: Manticore and/or the GA already have that many SD(p)s while you have to build or buy yours.

And your point is?

All it costs Manticore and/or the GA is operating and maintenance. You have a few megabucks yet to invest -- or have invested since 1922 PD -- to build the numbers you claim.

How are you/did you convince your taxpayers to foot the bill for what amounts to a full wartime mobilization -- since you also claim NO legacy ships from a pre-war SDF or two?

Sigs wrote:...if I chose to be aggressive I have the means to steamroll nations like the one you are suggesting as long as I don't step on Manticore’s interests.

If you turn aggressive, you're disrupting the free flow of trade and thereby stepping on Manticore's interests.

If the Harrington Doctrine is even 51% successful, you have a better than even chance of triggering a Mutual Defense treaty with Manticore and/or the GA.

Sigs wrote:

Weird Harold wrote: Manticore, and by extension the GA, have committed to creating and honoring mutual defense and trade treaties with every successor state they can.

Is it Manticore and the GA or is it one Admiral’s suggestion/brain storm? What one admiral thinks does not necessarily translate the same when the electorate comes in to the equation.

Since Empress Elizabeth I and her cabinet agreed that Honor's outline of a strategy, (loosely known as the "Harrington Doctrine") was the only course of action that lead to long-term survival and the best chance for "Galactic Peace (tm)," I take that one admiral's "brainstorm" as official SEM policy and strategy. The GA did not exist, but the same logic applies to the entire GA as it did to Manticore alone.

Sigs wrote:Signing a defence pact with all is unreasonable and unlikely since many might not want to have anything to do with the GA and Manticore, so unless Manticore and the GA are willing to go to war to “force” them to agree to a treaty it dont happen.

As long as 51% sign on to a separate peace treaty with follow on trade, military assistance, and mutual defense, the Harrington Doctrine will accomplish its purpose. I expect 75%-80% success.

Systems that self-identify as "Solarian" and/or reject a separate peace treaty will still be at war with Manticore and/or the GA. The result of that decision would mean the GA would be around land an occupation force after forcing them to surrender.

Rejecting trade and military treaties with Manticore/GA, and signing on with the Renaissance Factor or some other "Modern" Navy would be OK with Manticore/GA, but not signing on with anyone and building a Navy that can easily be turned Conquistador is going to raise red flags in every "government house" within your reach.

Sigs wrote:...it is unrealistic because it will put Manticore and the GA in a position where they HAVE to solve everyone’s problem while also paying for it all.

I've said as much. That's why there MUST be a multi-national defense force where those 1500-1600 systems share the cost of defense. It doesn't matter if it is 1500-1600 independent systems or 500-800 multi-system star nations/empires/confederations.

Sigs wrote:You are assuming that Manticore and the GA will adopt the so called Harrington Doctrine, just because she suggests it does not mean anyone else will buy it.

Go read all of Chapter Forty-four. Everyone else, and especially Elizabeth, "bought it."

Sigs wrote:Which you cannot guarantee will happen, because you will basically need to convince all the other nations in your sector or all of human occupied space to work together which will never work.

No, there only needs to be 51% participation in Mutual Defense treaties. The more that participate, the better the "insurance policy" and the less the cost for each participating system.

If a hundred systems form one sector are divided into five star nations of equal size, and one star nation (mine) just formed out of twenty non-participating systems. The four participating can be expected to provide up to 20% of the Nodal MDF with the final 20% provided by the senior partner (the one with the mosts SDs.)

When the fifth Nation joins, the cost/system drops to 16.7% and the fifth nation immediately gains the protection of 83.3% of the task force and the back-up of five full Navies if required -- all for the cost of a squadron or two deployed to the multi-national force.

I get that you don't trust anyone else to live up to their obligations -- possibly because you wouldn't live up to your side of the agreement -- but mankind has been making peace treaties for centuries and abiding by them in the large majority of instances.

Sigs wrote:So can the SEM recruit 1% or more of their total population? Yes they can, absolutely.

But the problem is what would that do to the high quality of the Royal Manticorean Navy? Recruiting poorly educated individuals, in a relatively short time to highly technical fields while using a fraction of the training cadre because of demands in other theaters.

The RMN already has enough ships in service to deploy the core elements of 20 some Nodal MDFs. They do NOT have to provide 100% -- probably no more than 30%-40% but probably around 20%.

Also, IIRC, we're talking about a time frame several decades beyond 1922PD -- possible as late as 1950 PD. Most of the problems you cite would be fully resolved in ten-twenty years and be irrelevant to maintaining the MDF task forces.

Weird Harold wrote:If you have 50% of your main combat strength in mothballs, you've got more combat strength than you need -- and you've wasted the cost of those mothballed SDs. You're making the same mistake the SLN has made and put yourself in the position of needing competent Intelligence agencies to geive you the lead time to recommission and re-crew those reserves.

Not quite true, having 150 SD’s in active commission while at the same time keeping some 350 SD’s in reserve gives me the flexibility to act knowing that I can within a few months to a year have 350 SD’s more, fully crewed and ready to fight. This gives me the ability to defend myself immediately, and also gives me the ability to more than double my SD’s in a short time. My assumption is that the Sector specifically and the Galaxy in General are in a state of flux, so until it settles down and I see what the geo-political situation ends up looking like I will be ready to meet any number of threats, and I will keep the ability to both defend my nation from aggressors and retain the ability to visit death and destruction on them should they chose to attack.

Weird Harold wrote:Contributing a portion of a multi-national task force costs you the price of your contribution, but gains you the support of the entire multi-national task force at need. Your approach puts the entire cost of the equivalent force on your single nation.

And it gives the control of that force to my nation, also it ensures that my forces will be ready to defend my territory and people all without worrying that I will deploy most of my heavy units to a Nodal fleet and end up having them on operation when I most need them. I will not exclude multi-national cooperation, but I will not be putting my defense and existence in the hands of others without retaining the ability to defend myself without cooperation.

Weird Harold wrote:All it costs Manticore and/or the GA is operating and maintenance. You have a few megabucks yet to invest -- or have invested since 1922 PD -- to build the numbers you claim.

And the price of operating and maintaining those SD’s is significant in and of itself.

Weird Harold wrote: How are you/did you convince your taxpayers to foot the bill for what amounts to a full wartime mobilization -- since you also claim NO legacy ships from a pre-war SDF or two?

You just saw the biggest and baddest nation in human history get taken down by a nation that until recently was 1/10 of a % of its size. I’d say it would be pretty easy to convince the citizens that having a strong military in the aftermath of that collapse and subsequent war is a very good idea. People like to feel secure, the more uncertain the situation surrounding them the more likely they will support a strong military. Add to that the fact that I am talking about 22 moderately to heavily industrialized systems with around 90 billion people the fleet I am talking about is not that great. Manticore in 1905 had about 300 SD’s and DN’s in service and it was from only one system nation, how much can a dozen nations of comparable industrial capabilities produce? And then add in the other 10 systems that have 50%-75% of Manticore’s industrial might? I would be asking each system to support only ~6% of that SKM supported as a one system nation.

Weird Harold wrote:If you turn aggressive, you're disrupting the free flow of trade and thereby stepping on Manticore's interests.

It would depend on who they trade with more, or if they even trade with either nation.

Weird Harold wrote: If the Harrington Doctrine is even 51% successful, you have a better than even chance of triggering a Mutual Defense treaty with Manticore and/or the GA.

Once again depends on who is more valuable to them.

Weird Harold wrote:
Since Empress Elizabeth I and her cabinet agreed that Honor's outline of a strategy, (loosely known as the "Harrington Doctrine") was the only course of action that lead to long-term survival and the best chance for "Galactic Peace (tm)," I take that one admiral's "brainstorm" as official SEM policy and strategy. The GA did not exist, but the same logic applies to the entire GA as it did to Manticore alone.

Its only a brain storm, the reality is that getting hundreds of successor states to sign would be nearly impossible unless each one that refuses is forces at gun point. Manticore will likely sign Mutual Defense treaty with the major players post-league and let each one of them have their sphere of influence.

Weird Harold wrote: As long as 51% sign on to a separate peace treaty with follow on trade, military assistance, and mutual defense, the Harrington Doctrine will accomplish its purpose. I expect 75%-80% success.

What are you basing this on?

Weird Harold wrote: Systems that self-identify as "Solarian" and/or reject a separate peace treaty will still be at war with Manticore and/or the GA. The result of that decision would mean the GA would be around land an occupation force after forcing them to surrender.

So if they refuse a mutual defense treaty your suggestion is to tie up millions of ground troops for years in order to make them sign a mutual defense treaty after you destroy their military thereby making the whole treaty null and void?

Weird Harold wrote: Rejecting trade and military treaties with Manticore/GA, and signing on with the Renaissance Factor or some other "Modern" Navy would be OK with Manticore/GA, but not signing on with anyone and building a Navy that can easily be turned Conquistador is going to raise red flags in every "government house" within your reach.

And since every nation that can will be doing the same thing as me, that would not change a thing.

Units in mothballs have the huge issue of crews. Trying to crew 200% of your normal fleet in months is an enormous task, one that likely result in you having no fully mission capable ships for a long time (years) as you spread your trained personnel very thin.

This assumes you have the time and shipyard facilities (and spare parts etc) to activate them at all, which seems doubtful. Assume it takes a month to bring them into service. You need 30 SD capable shipyard slots that are totally unused for that year but with fully trained crews.

Now having them in reserve, operational but mostly parked with an assigned core crew with reservists filling out the crew is another matter. Much more expensive to maintain, but a lot more likely to show up when needed.