DDHvi wrote:Trillion to one isn't even in the ballpark. The formula for common chirality by accident is one in 2^(n-1) for each n unit thread of chemical.
Even if your assumptions were correct, which they are not, you don´t really understand the point.
Just for fun, take all the "ingredients" needed, spread them out randomly over a 500M sqkm surface that is constantly facing changes in temperature and solar radiation, then, try to calculate how many times per second that a chemical reaction happens.
Start by figuring it out on a matter of square CENTIMETER, then try square meter.
If you have, lets use a ridiculously low number just to give you a sense of scale...
A sqkm is a million square meters.
So, if there were as little as 1 chemical reaction per second per square meter, then on the surface of the earth there could realistically be 500 trillion reactions per second...
And this is before you adjust for the earths surface not being just the surface. And then the fact that my above example is many magnitudes too low, as you can have up to hundreds of chemical reactions happening per sqmm per second.
So my above example is at minimum, 1000000 times too small, at least.
Keep that up for a few million years and you could get just about anything.
My point was that if you have a 1 in a trillion chance, but you have billions of chances every second, you are likely to hit that probability all the time anyway.
DDHvi wrote:Life would need to beat the odds on the supporting structures, the cell walls, the exact correct DNA to provide the information for all that, the proteins that work with the DNA in the process of duplication, all at the same time. DNA is fragile, cells have mechanisms to check it and correct damage, within certain limits.
That is an extremely weird assumption that almost certainly has little to nothing what so ever to do with reality.
DDHvi wrote:Note that radioactive dating can only produce a maximum possible date, just as mytochrondrial DNA can only produce a minimum possible. Which might or might not be the actual one.
That is not correct. DNA backtracing is completely different, while radioactive dating will generally produce a rough timescale of probability.
DDHvi wrote:Given the accepted size of the Plank unit, assuming variations occur one per each unit of time, with a universe of 20 billion years, and the estimated size of the known universe, the odds are still very bad.
No, seriously no.
DDHvi wrote:Real science is based on experiment and observation
Indeed. And the biblical faerytales have been killed off repeatedly due to science.
DDHvi wrote:and keeps on finding the unexpected, such as the non-mineralized dinosaur fossils with traces of organic material still in the bones.
That was unexpected because noone considered it likely that anyone would find the rare few bones that had not mineralized, as the vast majority of dinosaur bones never fossilised at all, while many of those found were treated "badly" to say the least.
DDHvi wrote:Back to Weber:
in spite of the many things impossible by our current knowledge, the Honorverse is still my favorite series.
It´s a good series.