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ISIS

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Re: ISIS
Post by aairfccha   » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:34 pm

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Plucked fresh from the News: A genuine martyr for archaeology and history.

Islamic State militants beheaded a renowned antiquities scholar in the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra and hung his mutilated body on a column in a main square of the historic site because he apparently refused to reveal where valuable artefacts had been moved for safekeeping.
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Re: ISIS
Post by Tenshinai   » Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:39 pm

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DDHvi wrote:I cannot accept a theory of life formation that violates the law of probability, producing by chance the chirality of DNA and proteins.


And how unlikely is it that i once rolled a "6" on a die 14 times in a row?

The odds are 78364164096 to 1, 78 billions to 1, yet it still happened. And how was that possible? For the same reason that other "trillion to one" events still happen.

Because of how many times the "dice" are rolled.
Because of how many chances are actually provided to "roll" that exceptionally unlikely result.

If you think that science in any way or form violates the "law of probability", you do not have even the slightest clue what probability means or entails.

There is no such thing as a "law of probability" that says that something is impossible. If something has ANY probability, it CAN happen. End of story.

Even if the probability is near infinity against 1 in odds, as long as the odds are not zero, it can happen.

Creationists are looked down on for a reason, they´re the laughingstock of serious science because they are pathetic.

DDHvi wrote:I cannot accept geological theories that ignore the lack of erosion over the purported millions of years. It doesn't take long to produce large ravines, and very few geological layers have even small ravines.


Geology does not ignore "lack of erosion" or anything such. That´s faerytales from people who doesn´t know WTF they´re talking about.

What lack of erosion by the way? There is no such thing. If you actually bother to look, there´s plenty where there SHOULD BE.

DDHvi wrote:I cannot accept radioactive dating that produces ages in the millions of years from lava seen to flow in historical times.


:roll:

Because lava is always so perfectly even and without any chunks or anything, suuuure.

You want to know the TRUTH? Go educate yourself.

Because the only thing your statements above says, is that you are ignorant, and have been listening to ignorant people who doesn´t want to know the truth.

Try reading up seriously on probability math, biology and geology, THEN tell my you still believe the rubbish above.

Betcha you cant.
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:01 am

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Tenshinai wrote:For the same reason that other "trillion to one" events still happen.


Trillion to one isn't even in the ballpark. The formula for common chirality by accident is one in 2^(n-1) for each n unit thread of chemical. Life would need to beat the odds on the supporting structures, the cell walls, the exact correct DNA to provide the information for all that, the proteins that work with the DNA in the process of duplication, all at the same time. DNA is fragile, cells have mechanisms to check it and correct damage, within certain limits.

Given the accepted size of the Plank unit, assuming variations occur one per each unit of time, with a universe of 20 billion years, and the estimated size of the known universe, the odds are still very bad.

There are advantages to having people with an alternate worldview. No one accepting the worldview of uniformity without miracles would be likely to send diamonds off to a laboratory to have them tested for detectable C14 activity.

Note that radioactive dating can only produce a maximum possible date, just as mytochrondrial DNA can only produce a minimum possible. Which might or might not be the actual one.

Real science is based on experiment and observation and keeps on finding the unexpected, such as the non-mineralized dinosaur fossils with traces of organic material still in the bones. Or the discovery that at least some radioactive elements have half life variations produced by environmental differences.

Back to Weber:

in spite of the many things impossible by our current knowledge, the Honorverse is still my favorite series.
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: ISIS
Post by The E   » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:03 am

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DDHvi wrote:[
Trillion to one isn't even in the ballpark. The formula for common chirality by accident is one in 2^(n-1) for each n unit thread of chemical. Life would need to beat the odds on the supporting structures, the cell walls, the exact correct DNA to provide the information for all that, the proteins that work with the DNA in the process of duplication, all at the same time. DNA is fragile, cells have mechanisms to check it and correct damage, within certain limits.


If your assumption is that life went from an assortment of freely floating chemicals to fully formed cells, then yes, that would be quite impossible.

Good thing for us all that it probably didn't happen that way.

Also, I can't help but feel that your understanding of probabilities is slightly flawed. You seem to be convinced that something that is astronomically unlikely could never happen; This is easily proven wrong.
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Re: ISIS
Post by Tenshinai   » Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:35 pm

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DDHvi wrote:Trillion to one isn't even in the ballpark. The formula for common chirality by accident is one in 2^(n-1) for each n unit thread of chemical.


Even if your assumptions were correct, which they are not, you don´t really understand the point.

Just for fun, take all the "ingredients" needed, spread them out randomly over a 500M sqkm surface that is constantly facing changes in temperature and solar radiation, then, try to calculate how many times per second that a chemical reaction happens.

Start by figuring it out on a matter of square CENTIMETER, then try square meter.

If you have, lets use a ridiculously low number just to give you a sense of scale...
A sqkm is a million square meters.

So, if there were as little as 1 chemical reaction per second per square meter, then on the surface of the earth there could realistically be 500 trillion reactions per second...

And this is before you adjust for the earths surface not being just the surface. And then the fact that my above example is many magnitudes too low, as you can have up to hundreds of chemical reactions happening per sqmm per second.

So my above example is at minimum, 1000000 times too small, at least.

Keep that up for a few million years and you could get just about anything.

My point was that if you have a 1 in a trillion chance, but you have billions of chances every second, you are likely to hit that probability all the time anyway.

DDHvi wrote:Life would need to beat the odds on the supporting structures, the cell walls, the exact correct DNA to provide the information for all that, the proteins that work with the DNA in the process of duplication, all at the same time. DNA is fragile, cells have mechanisms to check it and correct damage, within certain limits.


That is an extremely weird assumption that almost certainly has little to nothing what so ever to do with reality.

DDHvi wrote:Note that radioactive dating can only produce a maximum possible date, just as mytochrondrial DNA can only produce a minimum possible. Which might or might not be the actual one.


That is not correct. DNA backtracing is completely different, while radioactive dating will generally produce a rough timescale of probability.

DDHvi wrote:Given the accepted size of the Plank unit, assuming variations occur one per each unit of time, with a universe of 20 billion years, and the estimated size of the known universe, the odds are still very bad.


No, seriously no.

DDHvi wrote:Real science is based on experiment and observation


Indeed. And the biblical faerytales have been killed off repeatedly due to science.

DDHvi wrote:and keeps on finding the unexpected, such as the non-mineralized dinosaur fossils with traces of organic material still in the bones.


That was unexpected because noone considered it likely that anyone would find the rare few bones that had not mineralized, as the vast majority of dinosaur bones never fossilised at all, while many of those found were treated "badly" to say the least.

DDHvi wrote:Back to Weber:

in spite of the many things impossible by our current knowledge, the Honorverse is still my favorite series.


It´s a good series.
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:37 pm

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What would a comparison of the real life ISIS destruction of infrastructure, grabbing of assets, killing of skilled people, etc. with the fictional Sword of Schueler tell us :?: The thought is not about the motives and excuses, just the results.

And in real life, how badly do these damaging effects, including other real life situations, hurt the world as a whole?
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:00 am

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Tenshinai wrote:
DDHvi wrote:I cannot accept geological theories that ignore the lack of erosion over the purported millions of years. It doesn't take long to produce large ravines, and very few geological layers have even small ravines.


Geology does not ignore "lack of erosion" or anything such. That´s faerytales from people who doesn´t know WTF they´re talking about.

What lack of erosion by the way? There is no such thing. If you actually bother to look, there´s plenty where there SHOULD BE.

DDHvi wrote:Steeper slopes produce ravine/gully erosion. Less steep slopes produce meander erosion/depositing. Reaching the ocean produces delta formation depositing. What size of water flow would produce sheet erosion/depositing formations extending for hundreds of miles? This is of special importance in the several places where the Grand Canyon has neighboring layers which by accepted dating methods are hundreds of millions of years apart. How can such long time spans not produce large gully, meander, or delta events?


Astro-physicists estimate that there are no more than 10^80 infinitesimal "particles" in the universe, and that the age of the universe in its present form is no greater than 10^18 seconds (30 billion years). Assuming each particle can participate in a thousand billion (10^12) different events every second (this is impossibly high, of course), then the greatest number of events that could ever happen (or trials that could ever be made) in all the universe throughout its entire history is only 10^80 x 10^18 x 10^12, or 10^110 (most authorities would make this figure much lower, about 10^50). Any event with a probability of less than one chance in 10^110, therefore, cannot occur. Its probability becomes zero, at least in our known universe.


DDHvi wrote:Multiply each of these by a factor of 1000, and the odds only go up to 10^119


Even the simplest replicating protein molecule that could be imagined has been shown by Golay1 to have a probability of one in 10^450. Salisbury2 calculates the probability of a typical DNA chain to be one in 10^600


1 Marcel Golay, "Reflections of a Communications Engineer," Analytical Chemistry, V. 33, June 1961, p. 23.
2 Frank B. Salisbury, "Doubts about the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution," American Biology Teacher, September 1971, p. 336.
3 Hubert P. Yockey, "A Calculation of the Probability of Spontaneous Bio-genesis by Information Theory," Journal of Theoretical Biology, V. 67, 1977, p. 398.
4 Peter T. Mora, "The Folly of Probability," in The Origins of Prebiological Systems (Sydney Fox, Editor, New York, Academic Press, 1965), p. 45.
5 David M. Raup, "Conflicts Between Darwin and Paleontology," Bulletin of the Field Museum of Natural History, V. 50, January 1979, pp. 25-26.
6 Ibid., p. 23.


Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:46 pm

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Reported Found:

Open warfare is Phase Six of a detailed, 32-page ISIS strategy recently discovered in Pakistan called “A Brief History of the Islamic State Caliphate (ISC): The Caliphate According to the Prophet.”.


A on line check shows a number of references. No official translation yet AFICS, but some unofficial ones.

I wonder what might have happened if enough people had taken "Mein Kampf" as an insight into Nazi intentions?
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Dec 22, 2015 11:39 pm

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Speaking of “those parts in the world,” The State Department estimated that, worldwide, 33,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks just in 2014.


They reported that ISIS wasn't the main killing group, Boko Haram was. On the other hand:

But it’s not, at least not to government officials. According to an article by Nina Shea at National Review, “Christians are to be excluded from an impending official United States government declaration of ISIS genocide.” Shea cites a Yahoo News report which states that the ISIS attacks against the Yazidis will be designated as acts of genocide, but not attacks against Christians.



After Friday, the West is scrambling to find a response to Islamist terror. But part of the problem, as I told you Tuesday on BreakPoint, is that the increasingly secularized West simply does not and cannot understand the motivation and appeal of groups like ISIS.

People for whom religion is, at best, something optional, cannot understand people for whom religion is the center of their existence. People who have rejected the Christian eschaton—the end of the current age and the restoration of all things—cannot understand people whose goals are to usher in their own version of the eschaton.

That’s at least partly because the West seems to believe it has already achieved a kind of eschaton in which the reign of human ingenuity and prosperity and technology has supplanted the reign of God. The mark of the secular West is that it actually believes humans are ultimately in control of all things. We believe the world is the way it is because we make it that way. We talk about “directing our own evolution.” It’s a conceit as old as the human race: “you will be like God.”

But of course we aren’t. So when events don’t turn out the way we think they should, our illusion is shattered and our response is panic and flailing.

:(
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: ISIS
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:01 pm

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“ISIS’ anti-Western attacks are getting deadlier,” the report revealed. “A total of 270 people have died in ISIS-linked terror plots against the West, and more than 550 have been wounded. The average number of fatalities in each attack has gone up significantly since 2014. In the second half of that year, an average of one person died in each successful attack, but in the first half of 2015, the average death toll rose to 11. By the end of 2015, anti-Western ISIS attacks averaged a death toll of 30 people per incident.”


Check on what percentage of the leaders in the first 50 years of Islam's history were militants. Then consider that ISIS' goal is to replicate the policies and standards of that time.
:twisted:
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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