HFQ Official Snippet #28

Zion is in an arctic environment. If you expect troops to be doing anything outside you will have to provide double or even triple rations. The Reindeer ,ay be OK but don't expect to find any vegetation for the horses, it will all have to hauled to Zion. Once again, arctic environment, double or triple rations for at least 3 months unless you can provide interior habitat for all the horses. At the very least you will have to build sufficient windbreaks and cover for all the livestock.

Then their is the fact you will now be responsible for the well being of the civilians. This will require an assessment of the needs and resources of the city and likely more resources brought in for keep the civilians from starving.

Then you have to consider what the COGA might be doing over the winter, Their most probable action would be to seed Rakurai among the civilians with Caches of food, weapons and explosives. After the passage freezes, They start targeting civilians, supply depots isolated patrols. They don't have have to destroy very many supply depots before disaster strikes.

Sending an army when you can supply them, for 5 or six months is a good way af killing off an entire army.

Hi Eastern Mystic,

I wish you could share your second to last paragraph with the current administration regarding their recent negotiations with the Republic of Iran.

I wish the innocent won't suffer for what they've done.

However, that's unlikely.

L

Easternmystic wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Hi EasternMystic

Your scenario makes various basic assumptions

1. The rulers of the various borderlands have individual discretion and room to maneuver in their response to the Allied attack. In fact they are under pressure from the Inquisition and will probably be removed or killed, possibly by their own nobility, if they even try to negotiate.

Yet somehow, every single regime that has faced this choice to date has chosen to switch sides. Chislholm, Emerald, Zebidah, Corisande, Tarot. Even the Raven Lords have chosen economic cooperation to resistance.

What has changed the the Border Lands are going to choose a policy of scorched earth resistance to their dying breath? Expecting different results when doing the same thing is one of the definitions of insanity.

Randomiser wrote:2. The nobles, army and people of any 'capitulating' state will stand for it. Not at all likely. There will be plenty of TLs incited by their priests and the inquisition.

Once again, Expecting different results than that shown from previous experience. Some will try. Charis has access to intelligence data from Snarcs and some of the best intelligence analysts humanity has aver seen. One of them can even access hyper reality. Another has probably the best covert agent network on the planet. Are you suddenly assuming everyone in Charis will become terminally stupid and fail to keep an eye on the latest converts. They will meet the same sticky fate as Corisande's Norther Conspiracy and the previous Grand duke of Zebidah.

Randomiser wrote:3. If the rulers cave the whole population will, so garrisons won't be necessary. See point 2. and look at Corisande, where the Charisians were at least seen as honorable foes, which mitigated their situation.

Once again, every other place that has switched the majority of the population has joined the reformists. The same effect has happened in RL as well. That's why the Anglican Church exists after all.

A nit to pick. Charis was not seen as an honorable foe since most believed that Caleb had the ruling prince and his heir assassinated. It was the restraint and honor chosen afterwards that turned things around. In fact, the speed of the turnaround is exceptional. It usually takes one or more generations for a conquered people to accept that kind of change. sometimes it never happens.

Randomiser wrote:4. There is no way back to the CoGA for countries that desert. Only half right. There is no way back for any rulers or nobles who collaborate. But TL nobles who lead their country back after deposing their 'heretics' will get a welcome. There will also be a purge in the population, but they may not be bothered about that.

Finally you have half an argument, However you are still expecting Charis to become terminally stupid and not keep an eye on the new converts.

Randomiser wrote:It's not that I'm 'advocating negotiation with the CoGA', it's more that I am recognising that negotiation in some form is the only way to end a war and RFC's pronouncements mean that the 'current war' will end. Ergo there will have to be a negotiation. The current leadership of the CoGA may or may not negotiate, but they are mortal, after all, and sooner or later someone else will be in charge over there. My earlier post is more about what the EoC could reasonably expect to get out of a negotiation in the Safeholdian near future.

Negotiations require a minimum of two sides willing to talk to each other. Currently one side is refusing to talk and has also proclaimed that they will not bound by anything they may say to the other side anyway. How do you negotiated with someone like that and why would you believe anything they said anyway?

Peel a few mainlaid regimes away from the COGA and they lose their veneer of invincibility, Peel away a few more and the rest will soom follow on their own accord. Look at how rapidly the former soviet union collapsed.

Hey guys,

I never proposed killing off vicars or anybody who is not actually involved in criminal activity. In fact I've never been comfortable with the policy on inquisitors. I would rather cheerfully send them home and tell them to be knights rather than vicars.

I do want to make it clear that I'm not telling RFC to tell his story. But I will make a prediction. If the Council of Vicars is left in place, it will be the rallying point around which the COGA gathers for the next war, a war that could be more dangerous because the bad guys will have learned from experience and the Allies most dangerous weapon, Zhasphar Clyntahn, will be gone. The COGA will never truly accept anything less than than being the guardians of God's true plan for Safehold.

And remember: no one can truly make a vow to excomunicates and heretics. Peace will be very elusive.

Don

Hi EasternMystic,

I wonder how well you read my post.

Specifically how few average galleons are required for 81,000 tons of supplies [63], including 60,000 tons of fodder for 200 days not 3 month's or 90 days.

Those 63 are less than 1/40 of the EoC fleet, and the fact I expect several times that figure of above average galleons to deliver their cargo before winter, before adding the likely steam freighters.

I expect quite a lot of Zion's million plus population will flee the city before winter, and it should have plenty of room for 20-30,000 horses, since there should be around half a million already there; so after the panic, there should be plenty of stables and barracks, even if the alliance expels some from a specific suburb or locale to fortify what it needs.

Of course the supplies Zion requires for the winter requires them to start deliveries early, so by fall most should have already arrived, including most of the fodder for the horses, dragons, reindeer, and snow lizards; which will make any excess alliance demands a relative drop in the bucket.

The double or triple rations you mention are primarily needed for combat operations, and since Clyntahn has kept the Temple Guard and any serious military force away from Zion and the temple, coupled with the surprise of BGV's appearance, it will take until spring before the CoGA could provide any serious military response at the earliest.

Since Clyntahn won't be leaving the temple to flee, who will organise his Rakurai, and why do you assume they're close enough when I suspect Merlin and Nimue might preempt such attacks?

Even if Rayno survives, I don't think he'll be that dumb; or if someone does takes over to make such attacks, can you imagine a better way to infuriate the remaining TL population than attempt to destroy their winter supplies?

What better way to validate what the alliance has been saying about the inquisition all along.

Remember Corisande.

If you were an inquisitor still in Zion after some such attacks, what are the odds someone recognizes you as part of the inquisition and you learn how to dance on the end of a short rope if you're lucky, and what happens to all inquisitors come spring?

While there may be some who attempt such, I don't expect them to be very successful, since the people will be setting their own guards over their own supplies, as the new city administration directs.

L

Easternmystic wrote:Zion is in an arctic environment. If you expect troops to be doing anything outside you will have to provide double or even triple rations. The Reindeer ,ay be OK but don't expect to find any vegetation for the horses, it will all have to hauled to Zion. Once again, arctic environment, double or triple rations for at least 3 months unless you can provide interior habitat for all the horses. At the very least you will have to build sufficient windbreaks and cover for all the livestock.

Then their is the fact you will now be responsible for the well being of the civilians. This will require an assessment of the needs and resources of the city and likely more resources brought in for keep the civilians from starving.

Then you have to consider what the COGA might be doing over the winter, Their most probable action would be to seed Rakurai among the civilians with Caches of food, weapons and explosives. After the passage freezes, They start targeting civilians, supply depots isolated patrols. They don't have have to destroy very many supply depots before disaster strikes.

Sending an army when you can supply them, for 5 or six months is a good way af killing off an entire army.

lyonheart wrote:Hi EasternMystic,

I wonder how well you read my post.

Specifically how few average galleons are required for 81,000 tons of supplies [63], including 60,000 tons of fodder for 200 days not 3 month's or 90 days.

Those 63 are less than 1/40 of the EoC fleet, and the fact I expect several times that figure of above average galleons to deliver their cargo before winter, before adding the likely steam freighters.

I expect quite a lot of Zion's million plus population will flee the city before winter, and it should have plenty of room for 20-30,000 horses, since there should be around half a million already there; so after the panic, there should be plenty of stables and barracks, even if the alliance expels some from a specific suburb or locale to fortify what it needs.

Of course the supplies Zion requires for the winter requires them to start deliveries early, so by fall most should have already arrived, including most of the fodder for the horses, dragons, reindeer, and snow lizards; which will make any excess alliance demands a relative drop in the bucket.

The double or triple rations you mention are primarily needed for combat operations, and since Clyntahn has kept the Temple Guard and any serious military force away from Zion and the temple, coupled with the surprise of BGV's appearance, it will take until spring before the CoGA could provide any serious military response at the earliest.

Since Clyntahn won't be leaving the temple to flee, who will organise his Rakurai, and why do you assume they're close enough when I suspect Merlin and Nimue might preempt such attacks?

Even if Rayno survives, I don't think he'll be that dumb; or if someone does takes over to make such attacks, can you imagine a better way to infuriate the remaining TL population than attempt to destroy their winter supplies?

What better way to validate what the alliance has been saying about the inquisition all along.

Remember Corisande.

If you were an inquisitor still in Zion after some such attacks, what are the odds someone recognizes you as part of the inquisition and you learn how to dance on the end of a short rope if you're lucky, and what happens to all inquisitors come spring?

While there may be some who attempt such, I don't expect them to be very successful, since the people will be setting their own guards over their own supplies, as the new city administration directs.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

One possible thing to consider additionally is that the war toward the east could disrupt Zion's supplies. That might mean that the allies would need to make additional provision that doesn't count on Doom's attempts to supply itself.

Don

Hi Don,

Again, please remember vicars are knights because they're vicars, not the other way around.

Yes, since around 50% of the population will still be under CoGA control, who will insist on maintaining the vicarate, suggesting they'll survive for the next war.

Again, we have no textev that the inner circle expects anything like what you've expressed or hoped for; ie the vicarate will survive, and aside from punishing the wicked it can catch, the alliance will make no attempt to suppress it, destroy Zion, or change what the archangels have insisted upon, as that would cause a civil war throughout the alliance.

Regarding how the CoGA will treat with the alliance, yup I made this very point many times myself.

Again, given the CoGA won't be able to stop the alliance armies, agreeing sooner rather than later would be smarter.

If the surviving vicarate is as smart as it thinks it is, it'll agree sooner rather than later.

When the alliance starts occupying the eastern KotTL, and giving the land to the ex-serfs etc, more vicars may be willing to sign than lose more property.

Thus an agreement the vicarate will want to keep.

L

n7axw wrote:Hey guys,

I never proposed killing off vicars or anybody who is not actually involved in criminal activity. In fact I've never been comfortable with the policy on inquisitors. I would rather cheerfully send them home and tell them to be knights rather than vicars.

I do want to make it clear that I'm not telling RFC to tell his story. But I will make a prediction. If the Council of Vicars is left in place, it will be the rallying point around which the COGA gathers for the next war, a war that could be more dangerous because the bad guys will have learned from experience and the Allies most dangerous weapon, Zhasphar Clyntahn, will be gone. The COGA will never truly accept anything less than than being the guardians of God's true plan for Safehold.

And remember: no one can truly make a vow to excomunicates and heretics. Peace will be very elusive.

Don

Hi Don,

Since I expect BGV's arrival to be a surprise, and most of Zion's supplies to come from the KotTL, not the BS, I don't expect much disruption of the annual supply operation before then, which would seem to fall more into Rhobair's responsibilities than any of the other Go4 members, which makes me wonder what he's arranged to support his coup plans.

Again, between the panic flight and most of the supplies already in Zion, the remaining population ought to be largely self sufficient.

Now the next winter [898-899], that's a whole other ballgame.

But given the likely popularity of the increasingly valuable EoC mark, which may have more precious metal then than now, there might not be as many problems as some suppose.

L

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi EasternMystic,

I wonder how well you read my post.

Specifically how few average galleons are required for 81,000 tons of supplies [63], including 60,000 tons of fodder for 200 days not 3 month's or 90 days.

Those 63 are less than 1/40 of the EoC fleet, and the fact I expect several times that figure of above average galleons to deliver their cargo before winter, before adding the likely steam freighters.

I expect quite a lot of Zion's million plus population will flee the city before winter, and it should have plenty of room for 20-30,000 horses, since there should be around half a million already there; so after the panic, there should be plenty of stables and barracks, even if the alliance expels some from a specific suburb or locale to fortify what it needs.

Of course the supplies Zion requires for the winter requires them to start deliveries early, so by fall most should have already arrived, including most of the fodder for the horses, dragons, reindeer, and snow lizards; which will make any excess alliance demands a relative drop in the bucket.

The double or triple rations you mention are primarily needed for combat operations, and since Clyntahn has kept the Temple Guard and any serious military force away from Zion and the temple, coupled with the surprise of BGV's appearance, it will take until spring before the CoGA could provide any serious military response at the earliest.

Since Clyntahn won't be leaving the temple to flee, who will organise his Rakurai, and why do you assume they're close enough when I suspect Merlin and Nimue might preempt such attacks?

Even if Rayno survives, I don't think he'll be that dumb; or if someone does takes over to make such attacks, can you imagine a better way to infuriate the remaining TL population than attempt to destroy their winter supplies?

What better way to validate what the alliance has been saying about the inquisition all along.

Remember Corisande.

If you were an inquisitor still in Zion after some such attacks, what are the odds someone recognizes you as part of the inquisition and you learn how to dance on the end of a short rope if you're lucky, and what happens to all inquisitors come spring?

While there may be some who attempt such, I don't expect them to be very successful, since the people will be setting their own guards over their own supplies, as the new city administration directs.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

One possible thing to consider additionally is that the war toward the east could disrupt Zion's supplies. That might mean that the allies would need to make additional provision that doesn't count on Doom's attempts to supply itself.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

Again, please remember vicars are knights because they're vicars, not the other way around.

Yes, since around 50% of the population will still be under CoGA control, who will insist on maintaining the vicarate, suggesting they'll survive for the next war.

Again, we have no textev that the inner circle expects anything like what you've expressed or hoped for; ie the vicarate will survive, and aside from punishing the wicked it can catch, the alliance will make no attempt to suppress it, destroy Zion, or change what the archangels have insisted upon, as that would cause a civil war throughout the alliance.

Regarding how the CoGA will treat with the alliance, yup I made this very point many times myself.

Again, given the CoGA won't be able to stop the alliance armies, agreeing sooner rather than later would be smarter.

If the surviving vicarate is as smart as it thinks it is, it'll agree sooner rather than later.

When the alliance starts occupying the eastern KotTL, and giving the land to the ex-serfs etc, more vicars may be willing to sign than lose more property.

Thus an agreement the vicarate will want to keep.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

You are right about the number of people on Safehold who will still be under TL control.

As for Siddarmark and the EOC, I would suspect that the vast majority of people in those lands would just as soon be rid of the vicars. No love lost there. After all, it was the G-4 acting in the name of the Council that lauched its attack on Charis and then launched the SoS and subsequent invasion of Siddarmark.

In those lands, the vicars will share with the inquisition the distinction of being as welcome as tooth decay.

Don

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi EasternMystic,

I wonder how well you read my post.

Specifically how few average galleons are required for 81,000 tons of supplies [63], including 60,000 tons of fodder for 200 days not 3 month's or 90 days.

Those 63 are less than 1/40 of the EoC fleet, and the fact I expect several times that figure of above average galleons to deliver their cargo before winter, before adding the likely steam freighters.

I expect quite a lot of Zion's million plus population will flee the city before winter, and it should have plenty of room for 20-30,000 horses, since there should be around half a million already there; so after the panic, there should be plenty of stables and barracks, even if the alliance expels some from a specific suburb or locale to fortify what it needs.

Of course the supplies Zion requires for the winter requires them to start deliveries early, so by fall most should have already arrived, including most of the fodder for the horses, dragons, reindeer, and snow lizards; which will make any excess alliance demands a relative drop in the bucket.

The double or triple rations you mention are primarily needed for combat operations, and since Clyntahn has kept the Temple Guard and any serious military force away from Zion and the temple, coupled with the surprise of BGV's appearance, it will take until spring before the CoGA could provide any serious military response at the earliest.

Since Clyntahn won't be leaving the temple to flee, who will organise his Rakurai, and why do you assume they're close enough when I suspect Merlin and Nimue might preempt such attacks?

Even if Rayno survives, I don't think he'll be that dumb; or if someone does takes over to make such attacks, can you imagine a better way to infuriate the remaining TL population than attempt to destroy their winter supplies?

What better way to validate what the alliance has been saying about the inquisition all along.

Remember Corisande.

If you were an inquisitor still in Zion after some such attacks, what are the odds someone recognizes you as part of the inquisition and you learn how to dance on the end of a short rope if you're lucky, and what happens to all inquisitors come spring?

While there may be some who attempt such, I don't expect them to be very successful, since the people will be setting their own guards over their own supplies, as the new city administration directs.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

One possible thing to consider additionally is that the war toward the east could disrupt Zion's supplies. That might mean that the allies would need to make additional provision that doesn't count on Doom's attempts to supply itself.

Don

Hey Don,

Second your point about the war toward the east disrupting Zion's supplies.

There is already evidence that the war has disrupted the flow of coal to Zion from Glacierhart Province, and further evidence that the flow can't be made up from Harchong mines because it all has to be transported overland instead of via canal.

I suspect that when Howard is "cut off" by sea (Claw Island forces patrolling the Gulf of Dohlar and its various bays, sounds, and gulfs), and by land (Hanth and his threatening position at the throat / chokepoint west of Thesmar combined with the fleet's presence in the Gulf of Jahras), that the food supply for that large population to the north will also be threatened.

Bearing in mind the invulnerability of the Zion Temple itself, if the AoC reaches Zion, all Clyntahn needs to do in the short term is to close the doors. And if perchance there is emergency food-making equipment in there, short term could become at least medium term.

What do the forces of good do then? Adding a large, thick stone wall outside each door might be one solution. A year or so effectively "in solitary" might do Clyntahn and his cronies a world of good. Rendering him absolutely powerless to affect anything outside his suddenly very restricted world might well drive him over the edge.