HFQ Official Snippet #28

Hi EasternMystic

Your scenario makes various basic assumptions

1. The rulers of the various borderlands have individual discretion and room to maneuver in their response to the Allied attack. In fact they are under pressure from the Inquisition and will probably be removed or killed, possibly by their own nobility, if they even try to negotiate.

2. The nobles, army and people of any 'capitulating' state will stand for it. Not at all likely. There will be plenty of TLs incited by their priests and the inquisition.

3. If the rulers cave the whole population will, so garrisons won't be necessary. See point 2. and look at Corisande, where the Charisians were at least seen as honorable foes, which mitigated their situation.

4. There is no way back to the CoGA for countries that desert. Only half right. There is no way back for any rulers or nobles who collaborate. But TL nobles who lead their country back after deposing their 'heretics' will get a welcome. There will also be a purge in the population, but they may not be bothered about that.

It's not that I'm 'advocating negotiation with the CoGA', it's more that I am recognising that negotiation in some form is the only way to end a war and RFC's pronouncements mean that the 'current war' will end. Ergo there will have to be a negotiation. The current leadership of the CoGA may or may not negotiate, but they are mortal, after all, and sooner or later someone else will be in charge over there. My earlier post is more about what the EoC could reasonably expect to get out of a negotiation in the Safeholdian near future.

Hi Randomizer,

I see what you are saying. You are right. I do have that view. Look at my signature line. Speaking as a pastor of the church for over 30 years, the notion of a church playing a coercive role to enforce its practices and beliefs on others very deeply offends me. Churches speak faith to the heart and warn its people of the need for repentance. When the church has the power to force its view on others that is instantly corrupted.

The COGA,on the other hand, has at its very core the very opposite perspective. I'm all in favor of freedom of religion. That was the point of my last paragraph. But there are limits on all things. Freedom of religion doesn't mean I have the right to sacrifice children on the altar because I believe my god is calling me to do that. Neither does the COGA have the right to reinstitute its theocracy on others because they believe it's "God's plan for Safehold." As Archbisop Mikael has pointed out, one of the primary war aims is to break the power of the COGA to coerce others.

So how do we go about rendering the COGA harmless to those who don't wish to be a part of it? I can't see how that can be done by leaving the structure in the Temple intact or by continuing to funnell the involuntary tithe to Zion. If allied troops have to squat in Zion to enforce that, so be it.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi Randomizer,

I see what you are saying. You are right. I do have that view. Look at my signature line. Speaking as a pastor of the church for over 30 years, the notion of a church playing a coercive role to enforce its practices and beliefs on others very deeply offends me. Churches speak faith to the heart and warn its people of the need for repentance. When the church has the power to force its view on others that is instantly corrupted.

The COGA,on the other hand, has at its very core the very opposite perspective. I'm all in favor of freedom of religion. That was the point of my last paragraph. But there are limits on all things. Freedom of religion doesn't mean I have the right to sacrifice children on the altar because I believe my god is calling me to do that. Neither does the COGA have the right to reinstitute its theocracy on others because they believe it's "God's plan for Safehold." As Archbisop Mikael has pointed out, one of the primary war aims is to break the power of the COGA to coerce others.

So how do we go about rendering the COGA harmless to those who don't wish to be a part of it? I can't see how that can be done by leaving the structure in the Temple intact or by continuing to funnell the involuntary tithe to Zion. If allied troops have to squat in Zion to enforce that, so be it.

Don

I hear what you are saying Don. I just think you are having problems making the mental jump to the fact that most of Safehold has a different view. You have no problem with governments levying involuntary contributions and enforcing a certain (though limited) view of morality, Safeholders have no problems with the church doing the same. I just have problems seeing how in Safehold's mindset our heroes or our author can justify the kind of action you want to see. However I think we have kind of exhausted this and see will see how RFC progresses this and lots else in about 7 weeks.

Hi Don,

Given that the northern Harchong and western KotTL hold around 20% of the population and Howard another 30+%, the majority of Safehold population's will still want their vicars etc.

Killing all their vicars would be an unlikely means to assuring peace.

Let me remind everyone that I expect an alliance military victory with BGV either in Zion and the temple by late summer or fall or the book ends on his arrival; with more than enough supplies to last through winter delivered by some of all the ships no longer needed for trade, as well as some new steam freighters.

Rations for 70,000 men for 200 days to provide quite a buffer would be only 21,000 tons, while fodder for 20,000 horses is only 60,000 tons [but actually rather less given all the Morgans]; well within the capacity of just 63 average Charisian galleons [average 1300 tons] out of 2753 from RFC's "Raw Meat For the Speculators" post, or a bit less than 1/40 before adding any steam freighters.

Granted there's fuel, coal and wood, as well as fodder for the dragons and snow lizards, besides the military requirements, but given the nature of the critical mission, I suspect there might be several times that many transports delivering all that's needed, probably of above average size, even if BGV's force is 50% bigger by then.

The vicarate may well be purged so somebody we've never met yet does the negotiating for the CoGA, but I doubt that's what is going to happen story wise.

Given the capabilities of the Inquisition, how long they last afterward is rather limited, especially what happened to the German negotiator Mathias Erzberger after WWI.

Harchong and the western KotTL will still be untouched, so eliminating the vicarate and the KotTL is certainly beyond the alliance capabilities this year as well as next.

Remember that the RoS is some 9 million square miles, bigger than the USSR at it height, and northern Harchong and the western KotTL alone may be double that while Howard is still bigger; the alliance simply doesn't have the troops to conquer everything this summer.

Again, none of the textev hints that the inner circle expects to render the CoGA harmless in this war, so don't get your hopes so high.

A permanent alliance garrison in Zion and obviously the temple has always been part of my expectations, jointly policing etc, with the Temple Guards possibly now commanded by the former major Phandys.

So there will be plenty to demonstrate God was on the side of the alliance for those willing to see it that way, especially the pilgrims visiting, but they're such a very tiny fraction its pitiful to expect them to change many minds when they get home, if they even try.

However, at no time has Maikel or the inner circle ever questioned or challenged the temple, the Holy Writ, the vicarate, the KotTL, or the Archangels as being false; nor will they for some time to come if they can possibly keep it up as all their public arguments are with the mortal corrupt men who currently run the CoGA.

Thus anything that violates what most of the CoC and reformists believe is God's will like all of the above is verboten, let alone what the TL's believe, who might be surprised at how much they have in common with the majority of reformists.

Thus most of what you want immediately is simply impossible at this time.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

I agree that the COGA will still be there when all's said and done. The question is in what form.

I really have no objection to the TL's gathering in their own churches with their own priests or to organizing themselves beyond the parish in whatever manner they might choose.

The question really is how to render the COGA harmless for others who do not share their convictions to be around. I can't see how that might be accomplished if its hierarchy in Zion is left intact. Taking that route simply guarantees that they will serve as a rallying point for the TLs to gather around, take a deep breath and get ready for the next war. That may well be how RFC decides to play it. But standing inside the story, why should the EOC and the Republic settle for that, given the cost in lives and treasure of the war they have on their hands now?

Now regarding the Writ, I know that Safehold as a whole at least in some sense regards it as authoritive. I can only point out that the authority of the Writ is already being smashed. The Writ specifies the existence and dominance of the COGA in pretty much the way Merlin found it when he came on scene. To be sure, there has been some evolution such as the emerging dominance of the Order of Schueler. But not in the main. The Writ prescribes a world wide theocracy that rigorously enforces the proscriptions. If we were to honor that, Cayleb and Sharleyan just as well travel to Zion and throw themselves on the mercy of the inquisition!

Now I know full well that you are not suggesting that. But what I am saying is that with the defeat of the COGA, a new day arrives. The TLs have to come to grips with that. That new day means that the world wide dominance of the COGA in conformity with the Writ is past. If the TLs and others wish to honor the Writ in their personal lives and piety, that is fine right uup to the point where they start jamming it down the throats of the unwilling. But the bottom line here is that saying that the Writ says this or that is no longer a sufficient appeal for the ordering of public life.

Now I know full well that this is something that is in process rather than being fully accomplished. It is going to take a lot longer to sink in and take effect in places like Harchong and Desnair than it has in Charis. That is one of the reasons my own view is that the allied victory be made as clear as possible. God didn't step in and save the COGA at the last minute. So let's abolish the Council of Vicars. You say, but that's against the Writ. I say, tough banana. Deal with it. It's a new day.

Don

Hi Tootal,

Perhaps it is Nynian visiting one of her agents with Merlin, but isn't it an excellent place to stop?

It's been over 4 weeks since the last snippet, and RFC maybe too busy both personally and professionally to toss us some more meat to chew over and over, so which do you prefer, more snippets or more books?

His schedule and priorities are not ours.

L

tootall wrote:lyonheart
We still don't know enough about Duchairn's coup plans, some of which seem likely to be revealed in the next snippet, if we get one...

WHAT?

I figured we were going to get details about that visit to Zion by Merlin and Aivah.

Hi Don,

This may be your personal reaction to the CoGA and temple corruption that you can see in the books, NTM theocracy in general.

It is not the reaction or belief of effectively all Safeholdians [99.9999999%], including almost all of the reformists.

Deal with it.

The Holy Writ is the Holy Writ, be "very very careful" how you treat it.

Haven't you been paying attention to how the whole inner circle continues to publicly venerate it, to be the most devout and obedient around?

You might think its time to ditch all that stuff, fortunately for our heroes however, they don't; they know their limits.

Given those limits, please reconsider what you think the alliance achievable war aims might be.

I look forward to your insights.

L

n7axw wrote:I don't think we should be overly worried about the Writ. Before the war the vicars were already making a mockery of it. Now the COGA is no longer the keeper of men's souls since the unity upon which that depended is shattered...although keeping souls has played second fiddle to power and wealth for a long time. The Writ is tainted by the enforcement of the Book of Schueler. And the Writ promised to intervene to preserve his church as the keeper of men's souls. God didn't.

As for the TLs, I'm not telling them to like it. I'm telling them to deal with it. I really don't even want a "purified" COGA with power to enforce its will on others. That would merely offer them the opportunity to regain its moral standing and prolong the time it took to get rid of the proscriptions.

Frankly I think getting rid of the central authority would force a breakup along national lines. That would put the bishop under the thumb of the prince rather than the other way around. After that has been said, as long as there is no coercive political power tied up with it, they could even reconsitute their central authority and use the Temple for their yearly enclave of archbishops.

To conclude, here is another thought. A COGA left battered and bruised becomes a rallying point. Ah, the TLs could think, God intervened and saved his church after all. The COGA smashed and flattened is another matter. Forced to reorganize no poltical power except in those countries that remain loyal and I would suspect reduced political power there, there really is no symbol for them to rally around.

Don

Hi Randomiser,

Kudos for the excellent points!

You beat me to them, darn it.

RFC has been saying from the very beginning that Safehold, thanks to the Holy Writ, the commentaries by 8 million literate witnesses, and the very visible archangels has a far different view of their religion and theocracy than Don does.

I wonder how long this first peace will last, only a few month's at first, so it could take rather longer than what might be signed this fall before it becomes at least an armistice if not a more lasting treaty or a de facto peace.

The fact the ICN is preventing any tithes from Howard reaching the temple until there's a treaty might be just one carrot, the fact the CoGA can't stop any further advance by the rest of the alliance armies may compel another Brest-Litovsk, but I think Duchairn and others are smarter than that.

All the very best.

L

Randomiser wrote:

n7axw wrote:
<snip>

But what I am saying is that with the defeat of the COGA, a new day arrives. The TLs have to come to grips with that. That new day means that the world wide dominance of the COGA in conformity with the Writ is past. If the TLs and others wish to honor the Writ in their personal lives and piety, that is fine right uup to the point where they start jamming it down the throats of the unwilling. But the bottom line here is that saying that the Writ says this or that is no longer a sufficient appeal for the ordering of public life.

Now I know full well that this is something that is in process rather than being fully accomplished. It is going to take a lot longer to sink in and take effect in places like Harchong and Desnair than it has in Charis. That is one of the reasons my own view is that the allied victory be made as clear as possible. God didn't step in and save the COGA at the last minute. So let's abolish the Council of Vicars. You say, but that's against the Writ. I say, tough banana. Deal with it. It's a new day.

Don

Hi Don

I think the thing is that you believe a modern, western, (particularly USA) view of religion is right and obvious and applicable to Safehold. This shows up explicitly in your distinction between personal piety and the ordering of public life. Practically everyone on safehold doesn't think like that. They reckon that kings should 'study the book of the law and not let it depart from their mouths day or night' (excuse the loose OT quotation). Or, in other words, that religion should be pervasive and rightly directs public policy as well as private devotion. So they are not going to want a secularised division of church and state.

If religious freedom means anything (and it certainly does to Maikel) they are entitled to organise their church and state according to those beliefs. (Even Revisionists, who may not want the Temple to direct public policy, certainly want godliness, as they understand it, to direct public policy.) Clearly official policy in the Alliance does not believe that freedom extends to coercing others. The CoGA will have to agree to give up trying to enforce their view of religion where other churches are in existence 'abroad' and maybe give some assurances of some kind of religious freedom at home for those who are part of other churches.

Beyond that it gets practically impossible. Consider that the whole educational, welfare, legal, medical, and long distance communication system is run by the church. The various states are not remotely equipped to take that over and a great many of the workers conscientiously believe the church should do those things and may well refuse to work for a 'usurping' national government. Moreover, tithes pay for them. The CoGA may well decide that those who don't pay shouldn't benefit, in good capitalist style. While you are on a war footing and have your pistol at their head you can get people or governments to promise practically anything. Come the peace and the restoration of a peacetime economy, how on earth (or Safehold) could you enforce it? The EoC or even the Alliance cannot garrison the whole of Safehold.

Historical opinion seems pretty convinced the 'severe' terms of the peace treaties at the end of WW1 were one of the roots of WW2. The Inner Circle may be pretty convinced that 'Round 2' is inevitable, but how can they persuade the rest of the population of Charis that they are being reasonable if they act on that at the end of this war?

'Politics is the art of the possible', as someone said. In this case, the kind of demolition of the CoGA you are calling for doesn't seem to me to be remotely politically or philosophically possible.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Tootal,

Perhaps it is Nynian visiting one of her agents with Merlin, but isn't it an excellent place to stop?

It's been over 4 weeks since the last snippet, and RFC maybe too busy both personally and professionally to toss us some more meat to chew over and over, so which do you prefer, more snippets or more books?

His schedule and priorities are not ours.

L

Thank you for your kind comments, lyonheart.

On Snippets I realise RFC must be very busy, he hasn't posted anything since July 28, but it would be kind of nice if he could take 5 minutes to post 'Sorry guys, no more snippets for at least a month' or 'before the book comes out' or whatever is appropriate, rather than leave us dangling.

Randomiser wrote:Hi EasternMystic

Your scenario makes various basic assumptions

1. The rulers of the various borderlands have individual discretion and room to maneuver in their response to the Allied attack. In fact they are under pressure from the Inquisition and will probably be removed or killed, possibly by their own nobility, if they even try to negotiate.

Yet somehow, every single regime that has faced this choice to date has chosen to switch sides. Chislholm, Emerald, Zebidah, Corisande, Tarot. Even the Raven Lords have chosen economic cooperation to resistance.

What has changed the the Border Lands are going to choose a policy of scorched earth resistance to their dying breath? Expecting different results when doing the same thing is one of the definitions of insanity.

Randomiser wrote:2. The nobles, army and people of any 'capitulating' state will stand for it. Not at all likely. There will be plenty of TLs incited by their priests and the inquisition.

Once again, Expecting different results than that shown from previous experience. Some will try. Charis has access to intelligence data from Snarcs and some of the best intelligence analysts humanity has aver seen. One of them can even access hyper reality. Another has probably the best covert agent network on the planet. Are you suddenly assuming everyone in Charis will become terminally stupid and fail to keep an eye on the latest converts. They will meet the same sticky fate as Corisande's Norther Conspiracy and the previous Grand duke of Zebidah.

Randomiser wrote:3. If the rulers cave the whole population will, so garrisons won't be necessary. See point 2. and look at Corisande, where the Charisians were at least seen as honorable foes, which mitigated their situation.

Once again, every other place that has switched the majority of the population has joined the reformists. The same effect has happened in RL as well. That's why the Anglican Church exists after all.

A nit to pick. Charis was not seen as an honorable foe since most believed that Caleb had the ruling prince and his heir assassinated. It was the restraint and honor chosen afterwards that turned things around. In fact, the speed of the turnaround is exceptional. It usually takes one or more generations for a conquered people to accept that kind of change. sometimes it never happens.

Randomiser wrote:4. There is no way back to the CoGA for countries that desert. Only half right. There is no way back for any rulers or nobles who collaborate. But TL nobles who lead their country back after deposing their 'heretics' will get a welcome. There will also be a purge in the population, but they may not be bothered about that.

Finally you have half an argument, However you are still expecting Charis to become terminally stupid and not keep an eye on the new converts.

Randomiser wrote:It's not that I'm 'advocating negotiation with the CoGA', it's more that I am recognising that negotiation in some form is the only way to end a war and RFC's pronouncements mean that the 'current war' will end. Ergo there will have to be a negotiation. The current leadership of the CoGA may or may not negotiate, but they are mortal, after all, and sooner or later someone else will be in charge over there. My earlier post is more about what the EoC could reasonably expect to get out of a negotiation in the Safeholdian near future.

Negotiations require a minimum of two sides willing to talk to each other. Currently one side is refusing to talk and has also proclaimed that they will not bound by anything they may say to the other side anyway. How do you negotiated with someone like that and why would you believe anything they said anyway?

Peel a few mainlaid regimes away from the COGA and they lose their veneer of invincibility, Peel away a few more and the rest will soom follow on their own accord. Look at how rapidly the former soviet union collapsed.

Hi EasternMystic,

I think its less about negotiating terms with the CoGA, than offering terms the CoGA can live with, without really negotiating, as Cayleb did in Corisande, ie relatively limited terms, because the inner circle knows what their limits are.

Secondly, supporting BGV over a land distance of over a thousand miles, limited by animal muscle power, is quite different from the sea which Charis dominates via a hundred miles up a tidal river like Zion, particularly when the passage obviously referred to the winter equipment available, not all the armies the EoC is currently supporting in Siddarmark.

Presumably the amount ready by this fall after wartime production will be rather more than the peacetime stocks, or probably at least enough for another army to be so equipped so it can continue to advance westward in southern Haven.

The fate of the Border States has been discussed on several old threads of course; once the MHoG fails, expect the nobility and TL's to flee, while those in favor of the espoused alliance ideals, like no serfs and far more freedom; like the levelers, if not the middle class and reformists, might be a little slow in leaving, if not seizing the opportunity to revolt and set up their own governments if not a little revenge.

Thus by the time the alliance armies arrive there may be little for them to do, unless its police duties, ie preventing anarchy or pogroms etc, while there are lots of volunteers to help the alliance armies however they can.

There may be some BS whose leadership may choose to stay and treat with the alliance, but only those securely supported by the people; since most are serfs, how many are those?

Again the alliance terms are those the majority of the CoC and reformists can accept as according to the Holy Writ etc, not so much the continental TL's tender feelings, unless the alliance wants a civil war back home.

So BGV won't be playing "U.S." Grant in the temple, ie no unconditional surrender.

L

Easternmystic wrote:

Randomiser wrote:
Hi Don

I think the thing is that you believe a modern, western, (particularly USA) view of religion is right and obvious and applicable to Safehold. This shows up explicitly in your distinction between personal piety and the ordering of public life. Practically everyone on safehold doesn't think like that. They reckon that kings should 'study the book of the law and not let it depart from their mouths day or night' (excuse the loose OT quotation). Or, in other words, that religion should be pervasive and rightly directs public policy as well as private devotion. So they are not going to want a secularised division of church and state.

If religious freedom means anything (and it certainly does to Maikel) they are entitled to organise their church and state according to those beliefs. (Even Revisionists, who may not want the Temple to direct public policy, certainly want godliness, as they understand it, to direct public policy.) Clearly official policy in the Alliance does not believe that freedom extends to coercing others. The CoGA will have to agree to give up trying to enforce their view of religion where other churches are in existence 'abroad' and maybe give some assurances of some kind of religious freedom at home for those who are part of other churches.

Beyond that it gets practically impossible. Consider that the whole educational, welfare, legal, medical, and long distance communication system is run by the church. The various states are not remotely equipped to take that over and a great many of the workers conscientiously believe the church should do those things and may well refuse to work for a 'usurping' national government. Moreover, tithes pay for them. The CoGA may well decide that those who don't pay shouldn't benefit, in good capitalist style. While you are on a war footing and have your pistol at their head you can get people or governments to promise practically anything. Come the peace and the restoration of a peacetime economy, how on earth (or Safehold) could you enforce it? The EoC or even the Alliance cannot garrison the whole of Safehold.

Historical opinion seems pretty convinced the 'severe' terms of the peace treaties at the end of WW1 were one of the roots of WW2. The Inner Circle may be pretty convinced that 'Round 2' is inevitable, but how can they persuade the rest of the population of Charis that they are being reasonable if they act on that at the end of this war?

'Politics is the art of the possible', as someone said. In this case, the kind of demolition of the CoGA you are calling for doesn't seem to me to be remotely politically or philosophically possible.

The advocates for negotiating with the COGA seems to have overlooked the fact the COGA is not willing to neqotiate. In fact, they would probably burst more than a few blood vessels at the mere suggestion that they meet with Charis and/or Siddarmark as equals.

Also, despite the exhortations on this board for Charis to send an army to Zion, Charis does not currently have the logistics capability to keep an army supplied over winter at the distances involved. They are at their limit keeping BGV supplied at a distances of hundreds of miles.

Therefore, the strategy that makes the most sense is to pressure the COGA puppets. After, the Church and Harcongese forces have been dealt with, move on the borderlands. As each state is brought into the crosshairs, Offer them reasonable terms. Does anyone seriously think that any of the rulers of the borderlands will fall on their sword for the current vicars of the COGA.

The best part is that because of the JIHAD and COGA inquistion, no one will ever return to the COGA. After all, their reward would be to become guests of the inquisition followed by a bonfire ceremony in their honor in the Plaza of Martyrs. So relatively few Alliance forces will be needed to keep the new allies stable and loyal.

Ever state that switches will end up setting up their own reform church which will take control of the Church property in that state. Die hard Temple Loyalists will flee to the Temple Lands putting even more stress on COGA finances.

As more and more states switch a tipping point will be reached and states will start to switch before the alliance even targets them. At this point the COGA is finished. The only states left will be temple lands that haven't been conquered and a few reactionary holdouts like Harchong and Desmair.

At this point, the Alliance can dictate any terms that they want, They can demand unconditional surrender if they want to.