Future $Economic Crash$ In The Honorverse? . . .

cthia wrote:Oh no! Not THAT argument again! Are we really going to base the rarity of Earth's "rare" metals on the galaxy at large? Oh come on! Just because Earth wasn't in the right galactic lane to receive more of the "rare" metals when the universe was allocating metals doesn't mean Earth is a representative sample.

Look at Grayson. Metals are not evenly distributed. There could be gold planets out there that make Earth's gold rush look like... a few prizes in a Cracker Jack box.

Cthia, you're overreacting. The rarity of elements in the Solar System is fairly typical of this region of the galaxy. Yes, there will be variation, but the Solar System is a reasonable representative. No one has suggested that there won't be some systems of planets with more or less rare metals than Earth. What people were saying is that, if you mine the asteroids in most systems, you can get far more rare metals than you need or can use. Rare metals simply aren't "rare" for ordinary purposes on stellar scales.

SWM wrote:

cthia wrote:Oh no! Not THAT argument again! Are we really going to base the rarity of Earth's "rare" metals on the galaxy at large? Oh come on! Just because Earth wasn't in the right galactic lane to receive more of the "rare" metals when the universe was allocating metals doesn't mean Earth is a representative sample.

Look at Grayson. Metals are not evenly distributed. There could be gold planets out there that make Earth's gold rush look like... a few prizes in a Cracker Jack box.

Cthia, you're overreacting. The rarity of elements in the Solar System is fairly typical of this region of the galaxy. Yes, there will be variation, but the Solar System is a reasonable representative. No one has suggested that there won't be some systems of planets with more or less rare metals than Earth. What people were saying is that, if you mine the asteroids in most systems, you can get far more rare metals than you need or can use. Rare metals simply aren't "rare" for ordinary purposes on stellar scales.

It is also possible that some of the "rarer" metals are actually rarer or more valuable than we think because they are, for whatever reason, vital to the proper function or creation (or simply the most efficient/cheapest ways to do so) of various elements of the future tech - likely either the superconductors, molycirc, fusion plants, or hyperspace or gravitics technologies - that we don't have, yet are widespread and critical elements of the Honorverse. Or maybe you need specific rare isotopes thereof - I think it's probably for the best if it isn't explained in too much detail, but left somewhat vague.

That would, IMO, provide a reasonable explanation for why you could still use certain metals (or elements - perhaps elements that are likely to go to a gaseous state at extremely low temperatures) as trade goods.

Kytheros wrote:

SWM wrote:Cthia, you're overreacting. The rarity of elements in the Solar System is fairly typical of this region of the galaxy. Yes, there will be variation, but the Solar System is a reasonable representative. No one has suggested that there won't be some systems of planets with more or less rare metals than Earth. What people were saying is that, if you mine the asteroids in most systems, you can get far more rare metals than you need or can use. Rare metals simply aren't "rare" for ordinary purposes on stellar scales.

It is also possible that some of the "rarer" metals are actually rarer or more valuable than we think because they are, for whatever reason, vital to the proper function or creation (or simply the most efficient/cheapest ways to do so) of various elements of the future tech - likely either the superconductors, molycirc, fusion plants, or hyperspace or gravitics technologies - that we don't have, yet are widespread and critical elements of the Honorverse. Or maybe you need specific rare isotopes thereof - I think it's probably for the best if it isn't explained in too much detail, but left somewhat vague.

That would, IMO, provide a reasonable explanation for why you could still use certain metals (or elements - perhaps elements that are likely to go to a gaseous state at extremely low temperatures) as trade goods.

We have no evidence that any metals or elements are used as trade goods.

Seriously, unless you need absurd quantities of an element, you can get all you need from any asteroid belt. I will grant that it is possible that there is some trade in metals or other simple elements. But that will not be because of rarity--it will be because a system does not have sufficient infrastructure to get it themselves.

SWM wrote:

Kytheros wrote:It is also possible that some of the "rarer" metals are actually rarer or more valuable than we think because they are, for whatever reason, vital to the proper function or creation (or simply the most efficient/cheapest ways to do so) of various elements of the future tech - likely either the superconductors, molycirc, fusion plants, or hyperspace or gravitics technologies - that we don't have, yet are widespread and critical elements of the Honorverse. Or maybe you need specific rare isotopes thereof - I think it's probably for the best if it isn't explained in too much detail, but left somewhat vague.

That would, IMO, provide a reasonable explanation for why you could still use certain metals (or elements - perhaps elements that are likely to go to a gaseous state at extremely low temperatures) as trade goods.

We have no evidence that any metals or elements are used as trade goods.

Seriously, unless you need absurd quantities of an element, you can get all you need from any asteroid belt. I will grant that it is possible that there is some trade in metals or other simple elements. But that will not be because of rarity--it will be because a system does not have sufficient infrastructure to get it themselves.

Or because of excess. If one system is extracting near-absurd quantities of more common elements they might end up with a sufficient surplus of trace elements that it depresses their price to the point where you can ship it and still make a small (but reliable) profit undercutting the local price of the material mined in other systems. (Possibly as a 'filler' if you couldn't entirely fill your holds with more lucrative trade goods)

An abundant, inexpensive material material being shipped somewhere and used to make a profit is not rare.
In the world of waterborn shipping, you need something to even out the weight distribution of a ship or barge. The best things to use are something the ship itself is going to need and be able to move around as needed when conditions change. One such thing is fuel oil in multiple tanks and pump it around to keep the ship level or in trim for sailing efficiently and safety.

The normal procedure is to adjust the loading of your supplies (fuel, etc) and cargo.One challange is that not every ship is full of cargo for every part of a route. If you are running light, or at least too light, it can cause problems in ship handling and safety.

If you have to run with empty or mostly empty holds you need to address the handling and safety concerns or you can lose the ship. It is a concern today and was a concern in the days of sail. The result was running "in ballast" Because you would be basicaly empty of paying cargo and it's effects on the ship, you added enough of a heavy, very cheap material as low in your hull as possible to safely operate you ship. With sailing ships, you must compenate for the effects of the wind you are using to move the ship. One solution was to add stone, low in the hull, to provide the weight. Stone also had the advantage of not being affected by salt water and you could even put some of this into your bildge to get it as low as possible. When you get to your destination, you offload that ballast as or just before you load your cargo. Remember the part about using the ship to make money? There is also the little problem that people who have ports and docks really hate it when you just dump tons of material into the water next to places where you load and unload goods since it plays hell with the depth of the port at the docks. One of the things you can do with stone is sell it for construction needs. In fact, one of the things that was done was for ships going in ballast was use what were to become paving stones for streets and roads for the ballest and sell them. In modern bulk freighters (and through the 20th Century) you would load sand into the cargo holds. They would need to stabilize with very rough bulkheads of wood to keep it from shifting (which could lead to the ship capsizing if it the ballast (or cargo) moved and changed the center of gravity for the ship and kept it from returning upright when it rolled in a sea). You can sell sand. Even if you are going to a place that has sand beaches, nice DRY sand that doesn't need to be washed of sea salt is very usefull in things like construction.

If you need weight/mass for ship handling, you might as well use something you have at least a chance of selling for a profit.

Brigade XO wrote:An abundant, inexpensive material material being shipped somewhere and used to make a profit is not rare.
In the world of waterborn shipping, you need something to even out the weight distribution of a ship or barge. The best things to use are something the ship itself is going to need and be able to move around as needed when conditions change. One such thing is fuel oil in multiple tanks and pump it around to keep the ship level or in trim for sailing efficiently and safety.

The normal procedure is to adjust the loading of your supplies (fuel, etc) and cargo.One challange is that not every ship is full of cargo for every part of a route. If you are running light, or at least too light, it can cause problems in ship handling and safety.

If you have to run with empty or mostly empty holds you need to address the handling and safety concerns or you can lose the ship. It is a concern today and was a concern in the days of sail. The result was running "in ballast" Because you would be basicaly empty of paying cargo and it's effects on the ship, you added enough of a heavy, very cheap material as low in your hull as possible to safely operate you ship. With sailing ships, you must compenate for the effects of the wind you are using to move the ship. One solution was to add stone, low in the hull, to provide the weight. Stone also had the advantage of not being affected by salt water and you could even put some of this into your bildge to get it as low as possible. When you get to your destination, you offload that ballast as or just before you load your cargo. Remember the part about using the ship to make money? There is also the little problem that people who have ports and docks really hate it when you just dump tons of material into the water next to places where you load and unload goods since it plays hell with the depth of the port at the docks. One of the things you can do with stone is sell it for construction needs. In fact, one of the things that was done was for ships going in ballast was use what were to become paving stones for streets and roads for the ballest and sell them. In modern bulk freighters (and through the 20th Century) you would load sand into the cargo holds. They would need to stabilize with very rough bulkheads of wood to keep it from shifting (which could lead to the ship capsizing if it the ballast (or cargo) moved and changed the center of gravity for the ship and kept it from returning upright when it rolled in a sea). You can sell sand. Even if you are going to a place that has sand beaches, nice DRY sand that doesn't need to be washed of sea salt is very usefull in things like construction.

If you need weight/mass for ship handling, you might as well use something you have at least a chance of selling for a profit.

In the age of sail, many ships leaving France for the Americas carried mill stone as ballast - there was a specific stone in France perfect for milling grain (and not breaking off in the grist) and was in demand in the US. Cheap, damaged pieces were used as ballast and purchased for comparatively large sums (and banded together to form grist mill stones) in the US. I'm not really certain if there was a profitable ballast cargo for the return voyage.

Keep in mind that none of the shipping was operating in an information vaccume. Ship captains, company agents, factors of large and small trading concerns and all sorts of merchants and banks/moneylenders had access to information about what was happening and the relative prices of goods and materials in widely different markets. It might be a year old but there was a history there of what was being moved and what came from where.

If you were shipping ordered goods from someplace in Britain or Europe, you are probably going to want to fill any additional space on the ship with things that you could expect to sell at a profit. Certainly the captain and any agent for the ship or company that owned the ship would want to fill space with either paying cargo or take advantage of space they could use "free" to carry personal or company goods for speculitive sale. Arms and things like gunpowder and lead had an ongoing market. Cloth had value even if you are not trying to sell to specific merchants. A few kegs of iron nails could bring a nice profit. Making nails in a bulk manufactuing system such as in England or Germany (by hand or with waterpower to add force to the process) produced a lower cost product than in most of the Americas and you could sell nails just below the local production/merchant cost and still make money.

What are the big guys selling to the markets in the colonies? Can you buy it and ship it and still make money on it even if you don't have it pre-sold?

What do you invest in? Anything that you can buy "here" at a lower price that has a good market "there".

I should modify my earlier blanket statement that there are no rare elements if you can strip entire asteroids at a time. The exception could be "stable" transuranic elements.

As a quick refresher, transuranic elements are elements with atomic numbers higher than Uranium. All such elements are radioactive. The general progression is that the higher the atomic number, the shorter the half-life is likely to be. Some last only milliseconds. But for a long time, theory suggested that there might be a "island of stability". That is, there might be a range of atomic numbers which were much more stable than most other transuranics. Not completely stable, though--most estimates predicted half-lives of minutes to days. But there were some optimistic estimates gave half-lives in millions of years.

If there is an island of stability with very long half-lives, then it is conceivable that they might exist in nature in some star systems--primarily very young star systems or systems near supernova debris. That would certainly constitute a rare element only available from a few sources. If they elements were particularly useful in technology, they would constitute a very high-value good.

The existence of the island of stability has never been proven, and most estimates put their half-lives far too short to be found in nature. But this is fiction. Stable transuranics have been used in other science fiction as valuable trade goods. I cannot definitively say that they don't exist in the Honorverse.