Speed of Technological Development

Easternmystic wrote:this happens when the selection process is entirely random. However, the colonists for Safehold were not randomly selected. We do know that their was a slection process of some kind. We just don't know what it was. It seems reasonable that above average physical fitness and intelligence would have been factors in the selection process. The biggest problem is that we have no information on how those or any other quality would have been measured.

I wouldn't expect too much out of the Ark selection process in terms of specific genetic traits. It's unlikely that eugenics became hip again, especially with the entire planet pulling together to make it happen.

Certainly there was a selection process - no disputing that - but I'll bet it was almost all phenotype-driven and the genetic profiles ruled out only a few. They needed strong, healthy Adams and Eves, so no one with a fertility issue would be included among them. (Conceivably it was an issue for the command crew, but very unlikely much of one.) If someone had a pronounced family history of something definitely heritable that would be a non-trivial problem, that could disqualify them. But otherwise, they'd be picking for genetic diversity so as not to create any remotely dangerous bottlenecks, and ethnic diversity if for no other reasons that to preserve a representative slice of Earth and make sure the whole of Earth's political base was behind this in full.

There is also the fact that the colonists would have been selected from a gene pool that had already been winnowed by a brutal genocidal war. The colonists were being chosen from a group of survivors, which would probably make the base gene pool tougher, smarter and more fit than today's gene pool.

Eh - if you were from a colony world, by then, you'd probably been killed; if you were from Earth, by then, you probably hadn't been. If there's something in your genes (whopping big assumption!) that may get you in uniform in space, you'd have had a larger chance of getting killed.

If there's some story to tell about gene frequency differences between successful colony world evacuees and those left behind, it could make a difference. I'm less dubious about that than any other form of selection from the war, but that's saying very little.

There's no reason to suppose the gene pools of Terran Federation colonies were meaningfully different than Earth's, and practically no reason to suppose that the non-TFN pool was different than the TFN one. (And for the story of Safehold being brighter from those selection pressures, you'd have to tell a story about smarter Earth and civilian stock than colonist or TFN stock. Good luck.) So the Gbaba War almost certainly didn't exercise pressure on the frequency of alleles in the gene pool. Whatever else, it was fair.

JeffEngel wrote:I wouldn't expect too much out of the Ark selection process in terms of specific genetic traits. It's unlikely that eugenics became hip again, especially with the entire planet pulling together to make it happen.

The entire planet was not pulling together to make it happen. The rest of the planet didn't even know it was happening. Only a few people outside of the project itself knew that there was a plan to break out and start a backup colony. Even the colonists themselves did not know the purpose of the project, until almost the very end. So it's not a question of whether eugenics became hip again--it's a question of whether the very few people in charge thought that eugenics would benefit the colony.

SWM wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I wouldn't expect too much out of the Ark selection process in terms of specific genetic traits. It's unlikely that eugenics became hip again, especially with the entire planet pulling together to make it happen.

The entire planet was not pulling together to make it happen. The rest of the planet didn't even know it was happening. Only a few people outside of the project itself knew that there was a plan to break out and start a backup colony. Even the colonists themselves did not know the purpose of the project, until almost the very end. So it's not a question of whether eugenics became hip again--it's a question of whether the very few people in charge thought that eugenics would benefit the colony.

Representatives of terrestrial power blocs at least had the information and pull to make sure that the Chinese contingent stuck together. That's enough to suppose that powerful representation from quite a lot of the planet had a say in it. So, fine, the whole planet wasn't behind it, but if their effective delegates were, the point stands.

JeffEngel wrote:
I wouldn't expect too much out of the Ark selection process in terms of specific genetic traits. It's unlikely that eugenics became hip again, especially with the entire planet pulling together to make it happen.

Certainly there was a selection process - no disputing that - but I'll bet it was almost all phenotype-driven and the genetic profiles ruled out only a few. They needed strong, healthy Adams and Eves, so no one with a fertility issue would be included among them. (Conceivably it was an issue for the command crew, but very unlikely much of one.) If someone had a pronounced family history of something definitely heritable that would be a non-trivial problem, that could disqualify them. But otherwise, they'd be picking for genetic diversity so as not to create any remotely dangerous bottlenecks, and ethnic diversity if for no other reasons that to preserve a representative slice of Earth and make sure the whole of Earth's political base was behind this in full.

You have just described the basics of stock breeding. Pick the animals with the most desirable traits and breed them for the next generation. Rinse and repeat. The only difference is that with the colonists, there is only the single generation that underwent such a culling. That would result in modest to marginal effects on future generation. To get large effects a sustained multi generation cull is needed to amplify of the effects of the desirable traits.

Certainly diversity would have been one of the factors in selecting colonists if for no other reason than to keep the gene pool as braod ad deep as possible. However, at the very least the colonists would all be of at least average intelligence which would result future generations being on average slightly smarter than the base population was back on earth. The same argument can be made for physical attributes.

JeffEngel wrote:
Eh - if you were from a colony world, by then, you'd probably been killed; if you were from Earth, by then, you probably hadn't been. If there's something in your genes (whopping big assumption!) that may get you in uniform in space, you'd have had a larger chance of getting killed.

If there's some story to tell about gene frequency differences between successful colony world evacuees and those left behind, it could make a difference. I'm less dubious about that than any other form of selection from the war, but that's saying very little.

There's no reason to suppose the gene pools of Terran Federation colonies were meaningfully different than Earth's, and practically no reason to suppose that the non-TFN pool was different than the TFN one. (And for the story of Safehold being brighter from those selection pressures, you'd have to tell a story about smarter Earth and civilian stock than colonist or TFN stock. Good luck.) So the Gbaba War almost certainly didn't exercise pressure on the frequency of alleles in the gene pool. Whatever else, it was fair.

When it became obvious that the Terran Federation was losing, A significant portion of the population would have given up by either committing suicide or curling up in a catatonic ball. The people that were left by the time of the colonization were those that refused to give up. The ones that were determined to fight until the bitter end. These kinds of characteristics have a significant genetic component. so the effects of this kind of winnowing would be to change the gene pool.

Furthermore, only the first set of colony worlds were wiped out that quickly, The others had time to militarize and a large portion of their populations would have enlisted. Stating that all the colonists on those worlds would have died and everyone on earth didn't is too simplistic. Certainly the colonies were lost and a much higher percentage of them would have died, but some of them would have been off world in various military units some of which would have survived. Also, Many of the military forces defending the colonies would have been from Earth and a lot of them would have died defending the colonies.

Finally, Your last statement completely negates your previous arguments. The only fair selection process where everyone has the same chance to be selected would be a lottery. That would mean that there would be no selection based on physical or mental capabilities.

JeffEngel wrote:

SWM wrote:The entire planet was not pulling together to make it happen. The rest of the planet didn't even know it was happening. Only a few people outside of the project itself knew that there was a plan to break out and start a backup colony. Even the colonists themselves did not know the purpose of the project, until almost the very end. So it's not a question of whether eugenics became hip again--it's a question of whether the very few people in charge thought that eugenics would benefit the colony.

Representatives of terrestrial power blocs at least had the information and pull to make sure that the Chinese contingent stuck together. That's enough to suppose that powerful representation from quite a lot of the planet had a say in it. So, fine, the whole planet wasn't behind it, but if their effective delegates were, the point stands.

Where do you get that idea? Yes, we can see that the Chinese contingent did get put together. But what makes you think that this was due to the influence of representatives of terrestrial power blocs? Given that Langhorne completely scrapped the original plan, I see no reason to believe that terrestrial power blocs had anything to do with it. And in any case, the text tells us that no more than a handful of people outside the project itself knew the project even existed, let alone knew enough to influence it. Regional representatives did NOT know about it--maybe only a dozen top officials total. (And all of them were ready to die before the Gbaba invasion, to prevent the knowledge from being given away). As far as I can tell, terrestrial power blocs had nothing to do with specific plans. It is much more likely (IMHO) that the Chinese were put together because either the planners decided it was a good idea or Langhorne decided it was a good idea.

SWM wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Representatives of terrestrial power blocs at least had the information and pull to make sure that the Chinese contingent stuck together. That's enough to suppose that powerful representation from quite a lot of the planet had a say in it. So, fine, the whole planet wasn't behind it, but if their effective delegates were, the point stands.

Where do you get that idea? Yes, we can see that the Chinese contingent did get put together. But what makes you think that this was due to the influence of representatives of terrestrial power blocs? Given that Langhorne completely scrapped the original plan, I see no reason to believe that terrestrial power blocs had anything to do with it. And in any case, the text tells us that no more than a handful of people outside the project itself knew the project even existed, let alone knew enough to influence it. Regional representatives did NOT know about it--maybe only a dozen top officials total. (And all of them were ready to die before the Gbaba invasion, to prevent the knowledge from being given away). As far as I can tell, terrestrial power blocs had nothing to do with specific plans. It is much more likely (IMHO) that the Chinese were put together because either the planners decided it was a good idea or Langhorne decided it was a good idea.

From the Safehold FAQ - http://www.davidweber.net/faqs/index/series:6

By and large, the populations originally settled by the Ark command crew were fairly homogenized. Harchong was something of an exception, but that was largely because the initial population had been drawn fairly proportionately from all area of Old Earth, there were a lot of Chinese, and China had specifically requested that even though their colonists were going to lose all memory of technology they retain as much as possible of their cultural heritage. Most of the other Old Earth ethnicities and groups were less concerned with that issue, however, and Harchong lost most of its Chinese "identity" anyway (aside from the heritage of Chinese names and naming conventions) when Langhorne and Bedard rewrote their memories so much more completely than anyone on Old Earth had intended.

Bolded portion for emphasis.

So, yeah, China was apparently represented as such for colonist selection, and had a demand that even Langhorne and Bedard were content to honor.

JeffEngel wrote:From the Safehold FAQ - http://www.davidweber.net/faqs/index/series:6

Interesting. I can only see one way that this could fit with only a few people outside the project knowing about it. These Chinese representatives must have been within the project itself.

SWM wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:From the Safehold FAQ - http://www.davidweber.net/faqs/index/series:6

Interesting. I can only see one way that this could fit with only a few people outside the project knowing about it. These Chinese representatives must have been within the project itself.

You could also suppose levels of information, with a larger number of people having incomplete information but enough to serve some part in making it happen. And only a "few" people outside knowing about it could - almost certainly would - mean a small number of people representing the major power blocs at least.

Operation Ark needed to grab off 8 million volunteers for memory erasure and colonization under primitive conditions; a select command crew to find and terraform a world, manage a low-tech civilization and prepare it to re-develop and take on the Gbaba alone; and tap specialized and considerable portions of the TFN which was then fighting for the survival of humanity. No one commands these resources from their garage with a few buddies from high school. If you're selecting from among the entire surviving population resident on Earth, you need the cooperation of the government(s) representing them - or to be able to work around them, in a time that had accepted a whole lot of central control for the sake of the fight for species survival. If you're willing to accept grabbing off more or less whomever you can, or you're willing to accept not knowing much about your Adams and Eves, you could make do with contacts with authority ranging over a smaller population or able to offer you much less data on your colonists.

I'm not under any impression that it worked that way, and I've not seen evidence anyone else is.

I suppose it's possible that the people who authorized Ark and were, in the Chinese case, in a position to demand the Chinese stay together, may not have themselves been there as the formal representatives of a Chinese government. But given the information Ark required and the ability to approach and grab off their choice of volunteers, reasonably informed authorization by high-level, formal government representatives looks to me like the default and natural assumption, even if those representatives perhaps didn't need to know too many details.

Alternatively, maybe some high-level planners took it upon themselves to represent the national-identity interests of their people, but when government representatives almost had to have been in the loop enough to authorize access to a lot of information and potential volunteers anyway, that looks like a more baroque scenario than necessary.

Sigh....

Will the human race ever outgrow politics?????

dan92677 wrote:Sigh....

Will the human race ever outgrow politics?????

Nope. Politics is simply the art of working with people whose interests and goals are varied and may well not be the same as your own. Politics is as old as humanity and will be around as long as humanity itself.

Don