Interstellar Trade

Calling all futuristic Adam Smiths.

I've been a fan of David Weber and Sci-Fi for a long time. One thing that I've always wondered about in Sci-fi in general is the concept of interstellar trade. I am not trying to argue to be critical of anyone who says/writes about future interstellar trade. I am trying to understand the concept. Would it be economically feasible/profitable to have interstellar trade?

First of all many sci-fi universes simply take the Terran situation and expand it to a galactic scale. I'm not sure if that logic works. My train of thought is as follows.

Ok, so the only solar system we've studied in any real depth is our own and a sample of one is hardly a thorough study. But in general most Sci-Fi assumes that our system is fairly average. So with a baseline established let's take a look at resources. Our system has a substantial asteroid belt and several planetary rings , the Kuiper Belt and even the Oort Cloud. Our best analysis of the objects in NEO are that many of them are EXTREMELY mineral rich. I have seen numbers thrown around about single asteroids having trillions of dollars in materials and the estimates of the number of asteroids in just the main belt is in the multi-billions. That's a whole lot of stuff to make other stuff. Almost "found lying on the ground" level of availability. Assuming you're not making 1000+ planetoid warships... I'm looking at you Fourth Imperium, in that case you're breaking up whole planets for lunch.

Now we assume efficient/inexpensive interplanetary travel capability (they have interstellar capability after all). That makes resources relatively easy to get and very low cost (again relatively speaking). Now developed systems are assumed to have a well established industrial system for basic and advanced manufactured goods. Only truly specialized goods are not easily made in the average fully developed system and would necessitate trade. But what would the average/below-average system trade to the specialty systems to get these items? I mean the specialty system would be assumed to have a resource pool that includes it's own asteroid belts/ring systems therefore, raw materials would plentiful. Manufactured goods? Well, unless shipping costs are practically zero it would be cheaper to make it themselves. But we know shipping isn't almost free, freighters can take weeks/months to get from system to system in most sci-fi universes, have reasonable sized crews, huge capital investments in the vessel, and ongoing maintenance of the vessel. "Labor costs are cheaper in less developed systems" you say? Even today, automation is making manufacturing less and less labor intensive, plus just about every sci-fi universe has some variant of AI/robots/nanobots that would facilitate inexpensive local manufacturing.

The only thing I can think of that a new/underdeveloped system could offer a fully developed system are biological resources. Wood or wood analogues, vegetables, fruit, meat, spirits etc. All of these things would be unique to the system of origin due to the influence of the unique biosphere on the product. Even the type of star would have an affect. A steak from a terran cow raised on a different world would have a different flavor/texture that might be appealing and worth transporting. However these items would most likely be luxury class goods once transit costs are added in and not likely to be a big enough "cash crop" to allow for development of infrastructure and economic growth.

So that's what I don't get. Given my above train of thought, why would there be any substantial interstellar trade?

Comments and discussion on why I'm wrong and why there will be trade welcome! After all, without trade there are no pirates.

Olegreyowl wrote:Now we assume efficient/inexpensive interplanetary travel capability (they have interstellar capability after all). That makes resources relatively easy to get and very low cost (again relatively speaking). Now developed systems are assumed to have a well established industrial system for basic and advanced manufactured goods. Only truly specialized goods are not easily made in the average fully developed system and would necessitate trade. But what would the average/below-average system trade to the specialty systems to get these items? I mean the specialty system would be assumed to have a resource pool that includes it's own asteroid belts/ring systems therefore, raw materials would plentiful. Manufactured goods? Well, unless shipping costs are practically zero it would be cheaper to make it themselves. But we know shipping isn't almost free, freighters can take weeks/months to get from system to system in most sci-fi universes, have reasonable sized crews, huge capital investments in the vessel, and ongoing maintenance of the vessel. "Labor costs are cheaper in less developed systems" you say? Even today, automation is making manufacturing less and less labor intensive, plus just about every sci-fi universe has some variant of AI/robots/nanobots that would facilitate inexpensive local manufacturing.

The only thing I can think of that a new/underdeveloped system could offer a fully developed system are biological resources. Wood or wood analogues, vegetables, fruit, meat, spirits etc. All of these things would be unique to the system of origin due to the influence of the unique biosphere on the product. Even the type of star would have an effect. A steak from a terran cow raised on a different world would have a different flavor/texture that might be appealing and worth transporting. However these items would most likely be luxury class goods once transit costs are added in and not likely to be a big enough "cash crop" to allow for development of infrastructure and economic growth.

So that's what I don't get. Given my above train of thought, why would there be any substantial interstellar trade?

Comments and discussion on why I'm wrong and why there will be trade welcome! After all, without trade there are no pirates.

Honorverse shipping is apparently pretty cheap - by tonnage, or by distance. (Vacuum, hypersails - maybe cheating.) So exotic edibles and other biological products may be cheap enough after shipping not to be out of the range of too much of the market. And if your planet can make a lot of money (or products in trade, really) off of your xenochicken, it can pay to specialize in it for everything that isn't so cheap to produce you may as well do it at home to save sipping. So you become a market for other place's anything-worth-shipping.

I think there are two key factors to consider in this:

1- While the Sol System may be "standard," that is likely only regarding the composition of it. Eg, 1 (or 2) worlds capable of supporting life with multiple other planets either too close or far away along with asteroid belt(s) and moons. There is no reason to suspect that the makeup of our inhabitable planet is standard.

2- The rule of comparative advantage. If humanity settled on 500 planets all at once and everyone of them stayed in lockstep with tech increases (and all had similar resources), it may very well be that trade never develops as no planet can find a comparative advantage over the others. However, assuming that humanity spreads from a single location (Earth) and that tech advances can take years or decades to reach every planet, it is highly likely that many planets will naturally (by way of a series of brilliant scientists in a row) find themselves with the ability to manufacture and transport to a different planet goods at a cheaper price than the second can make itself. Thus, comparative advantages begin to come up and you start to get planets naturally focusing on what they are best at producing in order to trade with others for a net reduction in total cost.

Example: 3 planets

Planet 'F' has a land mass that is centered around its equator and a very small axial tilt while being a bit further from the sun that Earth, giving a huge amount of its land mass the geography of the American "Great Plains." There is almost no seasonal change during the course of the year, while there is really no asteroid belt to speak of in this system. Naturally, this planet can host incredibly large farming and ranging operations.

Planet 'M' is basically a planet of small and large islands with a severe axial tilt and very long seasons of both very hot and very cold periods. However, less than 20 light minutes further out is a massive asteroid belt made up of very large asteroids that are almost pure metal. Naturally, this planet is capable of mining pure-metal very easily.

Planet 'S' is very Earth like, so it is capable of producing all of its food and with its nearby asteroid belt it can produce all of its metal. However, the next planet in towards the sun is a 'sand' world made up of the finest silica sand yet found, meaning they can produce electronic components very easily.

Now, Each of these planets (and systems) is very possible in a "Sol-like" system. They are basically variations on what we already have. And, each planet itself due to its geography and its system-wide resources has one thing it can truly excel at. Provided that food can be frozen (duh!), and transportation costs are not too high (of course), wouldn't it be cheaper for all three planets to focus on its main advantage and get the other two supplies (food, metal, or electronics) from one of the others?

Take that example and multiple it by thousands of systems - each with its own unique circumstance - and you begin to see why interstellar trade is just assumed to take place.

In my humble opinion.

Well, you were fine until you went into Kuiper belt and Oort cloud of which we have zero evidence actually existing and by the recent photos of Pluto and its moons with its complete lack of craters would indicate that the Kuiper belt and Oort cloud do not exist.

PS. There is no possible way a star nation is going to use up an asteroid belt where its volume of asteroids is that of a whole planet. Unless we are making Dyson spheres...

That being said, if our solar system is any indication, any solar system with gas giants will also have a plethora of moons/planets with low gravity so even if the local livable planet does not have a moon and there is no asteroid belt, stealing minerals from other planets moons or planets should be cheap.

PPS> For RFC's universe to work, there had to be a massive merchant marine. Even though it makes little sense to ship the equivalent of coal/oil/iron ore/wheat/etc interstellarly requiring Billions of tons of moved goods. On the other side RFC has said shipping between planets is near free especially when you can tote 8M tons at a shot for very little fuel expenses due to wormholes and grav waves. W-sails baby.

Intersteller trade is like international trade is in the RW. I have something to sell and you want it and are willing to pay for it. Read up on Steve Westman's interactions with the MLF's rep. Not all planets are going to be breadbaskets or manufacturing powerhouses. IIRC the planet Mobius has a hard time raising meat animals even gen-mod animals so meat of any kind is very expensive at M$90 kg but on Montana it's high quality and cheap at M$2-3 kg. A purchaser could buy it at 4x the initial delivery price. A shipper could charge double the delivery price for shipping it and the wholesaler on Mobius could undercut his local competition by M$10 kg and still show a 100% profit.

We also have a small list of planets that probably have a hard time growing foodstuffs beyond basics. Like the aforementioned Mobius like Grayson and New Potsdam. Well what if there are others that are in the same state. We could also have worlds that have foodstuffs coming out of their ears. I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't a Manticoran shipping to Grayson the Manticorain equivalent of Kobe or Black Angus beef to Grayson from Gryphon.

Relax wrote:Well, you were fine until you went into Kuiper belt and Oort cloud of which we have zero evidence actually existing and by the recent photos of Pluto and its moons with its complete lack of craters would indicate that the Kuiper belt and Oort cloud do not exist.

PS. There is no possible way a star nation is going to use up an asteroid belt where its volume of asteroids is that of a whole planet. Unless we are making Dyson spheres...

That being said, if our solar system is any indication, any solar system with gas giants will also have a plethora of moons/planets with low gravity so even if the local livable planet does not have a moon and there is no asteroid belt, stealing minerals from other planets moons or planets should be cheap.

PPS> For RFC's universe to work, there had to be a massive merchant marine. Even though it makes little sense to ship the equivalent of coal/oil/iron ore/wheat/etc interstellarly requiring Billions of tons of moved goods. On the other side RFC has said shipping between planets is near free especially when you can tote 8M tons at a shot for very little fuel expenses due to wormholes and grav waves. W-sails baby.

No ... we actually do have evidence the the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud exist. The same evidence that disqualified Pluto from being a fully fledged planet, as it has not cleared its orbital neighborhood. There's loads of stuff out there.
Minimal cratering on Pluto is indicative of a combination of two things - one, that its moons are catching stuff, and two, that it is geologically active.

As far as interstellar trade goes, you're going to be buying stuff that you need a better quality than you can build. Montana was reasonably self sufficient for computer technology by accepting that they would be using inferior hardware.

Also, unless you're going to bootstrap all the way up and (re)invent everything you don't have, or set your colony up with an entire modern first-world industrial infrastructure with a complete set of manufacturing blueprints for everything, you're going to be importing higher-end things or buying the ability to manufacture (possibly under license) things you forgot to bring with and don't have the manufacturing details or capabilities.

Doh, I always thought the K Belt was way out beyond Pluto. All the literature I have been reading has always called the objects in orbit with Neptune and Pluto Trans Neptonian objects(TNO's). Problem is these objects seem to be in stable orbits.

So, Ok, we have no evidence for the Oort cloud.

The amount of "tech" gear per planet even if 100% is imported is absurdly low. Could be done on less than one 8Mton ship. And NO, you certainly are not going to import much, as you see, you have to PAY for these imported goods. If you do not manufacture goods for export, then you cannot import anything either unless it is gifted to you. Therefore you are going to manufacture goods or equivalent on your own as they cannot pay for the tech as they have nothing to SELL. Look up Mercantilism. It only works for ONE, get it? ONE country while keeping a whole bushel of countries in the stone age while raping them for cheap natural resournces. Guess what? Every star system is choke full of natural resources. They have no need to go outside their system and oh by the way, since they have fusion power, the cost of natural resources is effectively free. So there is 0, zilch, de nada reason to ever import from another star system. Now you are going to have planets importing its food as well? No. They are going to leave.

Excellent subject and answers. I for one think no other planet in the Honorverse will be quite like old Earth. Each will offer something unique enough that others will want it.

Rough old Earth example. Tea hauling Clipper Ships. England, Europe and the USA got hooked on tea. Very special fast sailing ships evolved to meet the demand. Just hours saved counted.

In the Honorverse the outback planet Montana had everything needed to raise tremeduous amounts of prime beef. Fast ships made delivery possible across most of the Honorverse. Many other examples.

It might even get to the point where large tankers hauling just pure tasty mineral water to planets who need it might be doable. Anyway to make a buck. That plus everything and anything imaginable.

If you don't have a viable biosphere you won't have enough inhabitants to matter. We understand why their are climate zones on a planet, and every planet will have them. People are simply not going to voluntarily settle a planet where you have 95% as glaciers or blasted deserts (among other minor details there probably isn't a breathable atmosphere without a lot of plants), and anyone who does settle it is really unlikely to be able to afford to buy anything from anyone.

Ships use hydrogen for fuel and people breath oxygen, so water isn't going to be scarce anywhere where there are people.

You can regenerate tissue, which means you can mass produce meat in a factory.

I could go on, but keep in mind this is space opera, not an physics text and especially not an economics class. Some things just have to be accepted to make the plot work, so just accept it and move on.

Relax wrote:
The amount of "tech" gear per planet even if 100% is imported is absurdly low. Could be done on less than one 8Mton ship. And NO, you certainly are not going to import much, as you see, you have to PAY for these imported goods. If you do not manufacture goods for export, then you cannot import anything either unless it is gifted to you. Therefore you are going to manufacture goods or equivalent on your own as they cannot pay for the tech as they have nothing to SELL. Look up Mercantilism. It only works for ONE, get it? ONE country while keeping a whole bushel of countries in the stone age while raping them for cheap natural resournces. Guess what? Every star system is choke full of natural resources. They have no need to go outside their system and oh by the way, since they have fusion power, the cost of natural resources is effectively free. So there is 0, zilch, de nada reason to ever import from another star system. Now you are going to have planets importing its food as well? No. They are going to leave.

Yes that's exactly what has always bothered me. How do the less developed systems find anything to market that isn't abundantly available in the already developed systems except unique biological resources. I just hate the thought that one day the only real tramp freighters that run the space lanes will have "Coca-Cola" on the hull.

Erls mentioned breadbasket worlds. I could see them being moderately successful especially if there exists "Hive worlds" like in Warhammer40k or Coruscant in Star Wars. They have no land area not urbanized so food production is limited to hydroponic factories and algae tank farms on the roofs of towers.

Again all of this assumes (as most sci-fi universes do) that most systems are similar to ours. Lots of moons, asteroids and other floating chunks rock and ice. And of course we're going to most likely only settle a system with a reasonably habitable or terraformable world so food shouldn't be a problem, unless your name is Grayson. However if we are a statistical anomaly then the whole concept changes and raw resources are once more a marketable commodity.

Relax, I do think that if someone (Fourth Imperium) were constructing 1,000+ warships ranging from Luna to Mars in size would effectively deplete at least a system or two. Especially when you take into account building the infrastructure necessary to harvest the resources, manufacture the components, build the ships and maintain them.