HFQ Official Snippet #28

n7axw wrote:"Me? I think the temple and the inquisition have some fairly competent people in the field..."

Yeah, they manage everything but win. With the exception of Taisyn on the Daivyn who was just a tad bit outnumbered, the Temple has lost every battle where they couldn't match rifles against pikes...

Don

To be fair, Charisians are winning only because they had cannon-armed galleons against galleys, newer model rifles vs old matchlock smoothbores and pikes, new vs old artillery, TF-level recon in some cases (SNARCs, and Merlin to go around in the scout skimmer), etc etc.

Some of the Church-aligned armies weren't very competent (Desnairians come to mind) but Temple regulars (Wyrshym's army comes to mind) are reasonably competent against same numbers and same level of technology.

If Charis had to fight on the same tech level as its enemies, it would have been defeated a while ago.

Aethor wrote:

n7axw wrote:"Me? I think the temple and the inquisition have some fairly competent people in the field..."

Yeah, they manage everything but win. With the exception of Taisyn on the Daivyn who was just a tad bit outnumbered, the Temple has lost every battle where they couldn't match rifles against pikes...

Don

To be fair, Charisians are winning only because they had cannon-armed galleons against galleys, newer model rifles vs old matchlock smoothbores and pikes, new vs old artillery, TF-level recon in some cases (SNARCs, and Merlin to go around in the scout skimmer), etc etc.

Some of the Church-aligned armies weren't very competent (Desnairians come to mind) but Temple regulars (Wyrshym's army comes to mind) are reasonably competent against same numbers and same level of technology.

If Charis had to fight on the same tech level as its enemies, it would have been defeated a while ago.

You have a valid point. But I think there is more to it than that. Think corp organization, charging against mass rifle fire, and more.

I will grant you that with the exception of the Dohlarans, the AOG is the best of the lot. However, at best what we've seen so far looks awkward and clumsy. Beyond its better weapons, the ICA is relying on the experience of the Chisholmians. That's something that the AOG still lacks.

But you still have a point. Up to this time, superior tech has been the equalizer allowing the allies to deal with superior numbers.

Don

Aethor wrote:

n7axw wrote:"Me? I think the temple and the inquisition have some fairly competent people in the field..."

Yeah, they manage everything but win. With the exception of Taisyn on the Daivyn who was just a tad bit outnumbered, the Temple has lost every battle where they couldn't match rifles against pikes...

Don

To be fair, Charisians are winning only because they had cannon-armed galleons against galleys, newer model rifles vs old matchlock smoothbores and pikes, new vs old artillery, TF-level recon in some cases (SNARCs, and Merlin to go around in the scout skimmer), etc etc.

Some of the Church-aligned armies weren't very competent (Desnairians come to mind) but Temple regulars (Wyrshym's army comes to mind) are reasonably competent against same numbers and same level of technology.

If Charis had to fight on the same tech level as its enemies, it would have been defeated a while ago.

Before I break down my analysis general by general, let me note that the ICA has never fought a battle where they weren't heavily outnumbered! Kaitswyrth outnumbered DE ten to one, and DE almost caught the slash lizard when he trapped two-thirds of Kaitswyrth's troops against the river before his troops allowed them to escape. (Where is the M96 when you really need one, or a few thousand?) Or the machine gun we've been waiting for since the Mahndrayn was invented. Next book...

Hanth has been fighting his entire campaign without the aid of SNARCs, and his troops are rehabilitated Siddarmark militia with muzzle loading rifles, sailors he drafted from the fleet to fire naval guns (which comprise his field artillery) and a few thousand marines. He has a few thousand ICA troops who have Mahndrayn breech loading rifles, as do his marines. He also received some specialist ICA reinforcements, but over a thousand were drowned in storms before they reached him. When Harless attacked him, he was outnumbered over twenty to one. Fortunately there was only one avenue of attack, and naval gunners are very good at what they do!

The only major advantage Hanth has is the ironclad making its way up the river, and he'd better hope it's enough. Exactly what those hundreds of "special" shells are capable of, we aren't sure, but they'd better be enough to drive the Dohlarans out of Evrytyn and back to the Dohlaran border!

At Everytyn he's facing the St. Kylmahn breech loading rifle for the first time, as well as "the hand grenades Dohlar had duplicated, and the very first Church-designed rifled, muzzle-loading artillery." to quote LaMA.

Seriously, Hanth is going to find himself outgunned and outnumbered, while spread across a front close to 300 miles long. If the 50,000 ICA troops en route to who knows where aren't headed his way, we could see the defeat of an ICA "army" if you can call Hanth's cobbled together force such a thing.

Yes, Merlin will see it coming and Nimue may show up in her new persona to warn Hanth of the hornet's nest he's about to stick his head into, and those are Safeholdians hornets, so feel free to wince! I've been screaming for Hanth to be brought into the inner circle for ages now, and if they don't hurry up and do it, without the advantages of SNARCs and despite an occasional visit from a helpful seijin (or messages from one) he's in serious trouble.

I just hope the latest snippet that didn't have Duke Eastshare rushing down the high road to reinforce Hanth was faked in order to fool a CoGA spy in the midst of the ICA high command. If not... get ready to duck!

It's worth noting that DE won both of his major battles pretty much on his own, and HM got his troops into the Kyplynger forest to block the Desnairan supply route on his own as well, with one hint from Merlin. He fought the battle entirely on his own, and he didn't have time to set up a proper perimeter, so it was bayonet to bayonet for quite a while. The ICA won because they wanted it more and were much better trained, not because they had superior weapons. As usual, they were heavily outnumbered! (Like four to one, and that was without the Desnairan infantry moving in to assault them)

Don't underestimate the abilities of the allied generals - yes, they've had some advantages, but they've also been so heavily outnumbered in every battle that their success is due more to their troops superior training than having superior weapons, which at times they can't use. (As in the Battle of the Kyplynger Forest.)

Put every general in the inner circle, and I'd buy your argument. For now, the ICA is simply a more professional and capable army than anything the CoGA has put together. DE will never be a member of the inner circle because he's a true believer, yet he's the mastermind behind the victories in western Glacierheart and Fort Tairys, along with the Kyplynger forest.

BGV does have the advantage of full access to SNARCs, yet his troops managed to clear Midhold and most of Northland Province, with Mountaincross in the crosshairs. He sent his troops where he knew the enemy was, but his troops destroyed them. Soon I expect we'll see him crushing Wyrshym from both the northwest and the south, which will drive the AoSG into full retreat to the northwest, while trying not to starve or freeze.

Too bad the MHoG will be moving towards Wyrshym's survivors soon...

McGuiness wrote:
Before I break down my analysis general by general, let me note that the ICA has never fought a battle where they weren't heavily outnumbered! Kaitswyrth outnumbered DE ten to one, and DE almost caught the slash lizard when he trapped two-thirds of Kaitswyrth's troops against the river before his troops allowed them to escape. (Where is the M96 when you really need one, or a few thousand?) Or the machine gun we've been waiting for since the Mahndrayn was invented. Next book...

Hanth has been fighting his entire campaign without the aid of SNARCs, and his troops are rehabilitated Siddarmark militia with muzzle loading rifles, sailors he drafted from the fleet to fire naval guns (which comprise his field artillery) and a few thousand marines. He has a few thousand ICA troops who have Mahndrayn breech loading rifles, as do his marines. He also received some specialist ICA reinforcements, but over a thousand were drowned in storms before they reached him. When Harless attacked him, he was outnumbered over twenty to one. Fortunately there was only one avenue of attack, and naval gunners are very good at what they do!

The only major advantage Hanth has is the ironclad making its way up the river, and he'd better hope it's enough. Exactly what those hundreds of "special" shells are capable of, we aren't sure, but they'd better be enough to drive the Dohlarans out of Evrytyn and back to the Dohlaran border!

At Everytyn he's facing the St. Kylmahn breech loading rifle for the first time, as well as "the hand grenades Dohlar had duplicated, and the very first Church-designed rifled, muzzle-loading artillery." to quote LaMA.

Seriously, Hanth is going to find himself outgunned and outnumbered, while spread across a front close to 300 miles long. If the 50,000 ICA troops en route to who knows where aren't headed his way, we could see the defeat of an ICA "army" if you can call Hanth's cobbled together force such a thing.

Yes, Merlin will see it coming and Nimue may show up in her new persona to warn Hanth of the hornet's nest he's about to stick his head into, and those are Safeholdians hornets, so feel free to wince! I've been screaming for Hanth to be brought into the inner circle for ages now, and if they don't hurry up and do it, without the advantages of SNARCs and despite an occasional visit from a helpful seijin (or messages from one) he's in serious trouble.

I just hope the latest snippet that didn't have Duke Eastshare rushing down the high road to reinforce Hanth was faked in order to fool a CoGA spy in the midst of the ICA high command. If not... get ready to duck!

It's worth noting that DE won both of his major battles pretty much on his own, and HM got his troops into the Kyplynger forest to block the Desnairan supply route on his own as well, with one hint from Merlin. He fought the battle entirely on his own, and he didn't have time to set up a proper perimeter, so it was bayonet to bayonet for quite a while. The ICA won because they wanted it more and were much better trained, not because they had superior weapons. As usual, they were heavily outnumbered! (Like four to one, and that was without the Desnairan infantry moving in to assault them)

Don't underestimate the abilities of the allied generals - yes, they've had some advantages, but they've also been so heavily outnumbered in every battle that their success is due more to their troops superior training than having superior weapons, which at times they can't use. (As in the Battle of the Kyplynger Forest.)

Put every general in the inner circle, and I'd buy your argument. For now, the ICA is simply a more professional and capable army than anything the CoGA has put together. DE will never be a member of the inner circle because he's a true believer, yet he's the mastermind behind the victories in western Glacierheart and Fort Tairys, along with the Kyplynger forest.

BGV does have the advantage of full access to SNARCs, yet his troops managed to clear Midhold and most of Northland Province, with Mountaincross in the crosshairs. He sent his troops where he knew the enemy was, but his troops destroyed them. Soon I expect we'll see him crushing Wyrshym from both the northwest and the south, which will drive the AoSG into full retreat to the northwest, while trying not to starve or freeze.

Too bad the MHoG will be moving towards Wyrshym's survivors soon...

This was pretty much my point expanded upon. However, the point about the superior weapons as equalizers is also valid. Those Mandrayans and angle guns made DE's and BGV's joh possible in both the Salmahn Gap and on the Daivyn.

This doesn't take a thing away from the ICA whose professionalism meant that the new weapons would be effectively used.

Don

Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos again for your excellent points.

We will have more clues where RFC is going by the end of HFQ, but access to the temple basement seems possible when the CoGA armies are all defeated, especially given how quickly BGV can get there via Hsing-wu's passage this summer.

From what Maikel and others have said so far however, that doesn't seem to be an immediately imperative goal [though its definitely critical as soon as it can be arranged, it depends on how well things go this summer against the MHoG before the inner circle can focus on it], if their other war objectives are achieved, which is something to keep in mind.

The inner circle has shown no interest in wasting any energy etc invading Harchong, Desnar or the rest of Howard to right all the wrongs within those empires, so we should expect them to remain intact for the time being [until the next series of wars]; although Sharleyan's comments about South Harchong indicate it may be more tolerant toward the EoC after the war when the ICN can shield it, in effect providing de facto independence from the North, which wouldn't hurt Charisian trade either.

We still don't know enough about Duchairn's coup plans, some of which seem likely to be revealed in the next snippet, if we get one [someone may need to remind RFC, if he can spare the time].

Since expecting to execute them only during winter is far too restrictive, we might get some action after BGV steams up the Zion River.

The collapse of the CoGA finances will devastate the temple in ways we can't fully see clearly yet, since trying to pay for what a billion tithed before the jihad by roughly only 200 million [North Harchong and the western KotTL] is simply impossible, its unlikely the CoGA remnant or Harchong will be able to afford building a navy to threaten the EoC for the foreseeable future.

OTOH, when the great reveal occurs, its quite possible that Southern Harchong could build a steel navy, whether its big or good enough to really challenge the ICN is another question, but RFC's talents as a story teller could certainly raise reader's tensions by touting it.

Still the collapse of the temple financial empire will be fascinating to map as you expressed it so well, as old debts are settled ruthlessly in return for loans that telescope the terms of the CoGA, assuming any nations even attempt to continue the temple's 25% current tithe, or even maintain the 20%; OTOH, I've long argued the CoC could reduce the double tithe by 25-50% since its no longer burdened by subsidizing the temple and Zion etc and all that extra wealth can be too corrupting, though simply transferring it to the crown or just loaning it to fight the war still bugs some people, even if it should have allowed the empire to reduce its taxes before the Mohryah lode was discovered.

Your concern about the alliance needing garrisons in the probable ex-BS is certainly valid, but given the M96's replacing last year's Mahndrayn's and capturing most if not all of the MHoG's rifle's should mean the RSA can double if not triple the men it has under arms, which ought to provide the garrisons needed while the better armed alliance vanguard armies continue to advance.

My sense from the books is that the Harchong serfs won't be sent back immediately, though they would certainly distract the empire, as part of the temporary peace.

Besides they need time to learn more about Siddarmark and the EoC and their anti serf philosophies and policies, NTM what personal responsibility and citizenship means.

"The more you know, the more powerful you can be" means the more the greater majority of ex-serfs learns, the better chance they'll have of forming and sustaining their own nations when the time comes.

I have posted previously about the EoC funding the barren Lands Terra-forming or "consecration" to provide an independent home for the Harchong ex-serfs, which protected by the ICN could flourish while providing an immediate haven for any who made it to the sea, again courtesy of the ICN patrolling off North Harchong's shore.

Thanks to OWL's broadsheets, I think most if not all serfs know the EoC and the RoS expect to free all serfs, if they don't do it themselves as you trumpet so eloquently.

They will of course continue, since the powers opposed will have no way to stop them, NTM they are not produced by the alliance, so they won't be mentioned or condemned in the treaty.

The importance of that independent news will only grow larger during the nominal peace, as other sources confirm its telling the truth about what the outside world is doing, the rights other serfs have won, if not their revolutions or the governments who've accommodated to the changes the alliance requires for trade etc.

I've also posted about 'Buying Sodar'; albeit barony by barony, earldom or duchy [garrisoned by the ICA as needed] besides the requisite court influence since its so very poor, NTM its central location in Howard would encourage serfs in all the adjacent lands to flee there in their version of the underground railway.

Thus the conditions the alliance requires are fairly simple; renounce the jihad, recognise the CoC and reformist churches [Maikel won't insist all follow his lead, though Zhasyn Cahnyr thinks its inevitable], reform the Inquisition back to what it was before Zhaspahr Clyntahn or the "reforms" that put it on the road to controlling the CoGA, besides breaking the power of the inquisition outside the CoGA remnant; while ensuring access to the temple especially pilgrims, as permanent control is unrealistic if the alliance wants a quick peace.

There is going to be a period of shock and denial throughout the CoGA remnant loyalists who won't admit the possibility of the temple falling, let alone occupation or control by the alliance, to say nothing of the surviving vicarate/Go3 agreeing to end the jihad, admitting their errors, condemning the inquisition.

Unfortunately, any attempt to 'liberate' the temple, especially just 'by faith' will probably founder on poor organization due in part to the temple's bankruptcy like the various people's or children's crusades, well before discovering just how vast the alliance weapon's superiority is for those who manage to arm themselves with whatever can be found.

Once that realization sinks in, further fracturing should sweep the remnants which ought to provide more time for the alliance to cope with whatever is in the basement.

And so it goes.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:*quote="JeffEngel"*
It'll be enough to break the Church's claims in the treaty and let its finances and national interests do the rest. Give things another decade or two and Safehold will ready itself for the next step.

We're a bit closer than I thought. But still, in the aftermath of WW2, the Nazis were gone, finished as a political force. Oh to be sure they are still a presence in some parts, but impotent.

That is the primary goal for the COGA, and esecially the inquisition. They will continue to be there to be sure. Its doctrine and teachings are too widespread and pervasive for it to be any other way.

But the Temple can and should be crushed to the point where there is no central organization for either the inquisition or the COGA as a whole... no more direction from the top. No grand inquisitor to prescribe mischief for his minions. Do away with the Council of Vicars and send the archbishops home to take care of their charges.

Let whatever organization the COGA has afterwards rise from the ashes without political power to bully even their own people.

What I'm suggesting is abrupt. And that is the point. Nobody on the TL side should be able to say that God stepped in to save the Temple in Zion. It must be utterly and undeniably clear that the Temple, despite its wealth and all the people enlisted into its cause, is beaten and at the mercy of the victors.

Don

I do think that a descent in force on the Temple, or assassination/kidnapping runs that can cause a long-term, radical shift in power there, may be a likely conclusion to this war. I don't see things going so long, hard, and bloody as it would be to march all across Dohlar, the Border States, and the Temple Lands, before either (a) the Group of Four sheds members fatally, restructures, and sues for terms that the Allies cannot refuse, or (b) the Allies lose too much momentum on too much hostile territory needing garrisons.

So even the at-all plausible "total" victory scenarios for this war will leave a lot of regimes in place to re-create a CoGA if they keep to the theology they've had for centuries, or actually leave the CoGA out of Zion still around.

If the Allies go for all you demand, they're too likely to be unable to hang onto it.

But there's a whole lot that can be accomplished with the shadow of triumphant Charis and Siddarmark falling across the mainland, the disgrace of the CoGA, and its bankruptcy. It may secure things more permanently to let those effects do their work on beaten nations.

Let the armed serfs return to Harchong having seen Church death camps and fraternized with "heretic" farmers in Siddarmark. Let them spread their tales across the Border States and Temple Lands as they go. Let them see decent people living decent lives without an Inquisitor to be feared.

Let the serfs and slaves of Desnair know that their cousins in Silkiah - and, I suspect, not long in Dohlar and Delferahk - live free. Let their lords know that too. And let those lords know that free labor is the only labor that's not going to slit their throats one of these nights, and that only free labor is going to let their nation escape being a backwater joke in coming decades.

Let kings and princes enjoy the feeling of the Church owing them money for once. Let them enjoy all the local orders looking to them for employment.

Let the Border States and Temple Lands know that their freedom is on Siddarmark's sufferance - and that, if Siddarmark may need a decade or two to recover, its rulers and voters have long memories and they don't want to remain their enemies that long.

Let every mainland realm look at the trade Silkiah and any other state that makes nice with the "heretics" gets. Adn the safety! And let them see that all those Charisian and Siddarmark "heretics" are just like you - only a bit more free-spoken about the guys still in Zion.

And when they all make their own changes in their own states - not necessarily bloodlessly, mind you - it will be their changes, their reforms or revolutions, for them to prize and secure, instead of something imposed on them by outsiders whose arrogance any patriot may despise.[/quote]

Hi Lyonheart,

Actually, I don't think I'm demanding much....

1.Surrender of the Temple to be placed under international control and access for all churches.

2.Dismantlement of the Council of Vicars and the inquisition's ability to coerce and force obedience to Zion.

3.War crimes trials held in Zion under allied authority.

4.Reparations to compensate Siddarmark for damage by SoS in Siddarmark.

Quit modest, I would think...

I'm not in favor of invading anyone who doesn't need to be invaded to accomplish the above. Trying to occupy the mainland for amy extended period of time would risk being over extended, although I would imagine that Siddarmark's borders will expand somewhat.

Hi Don,

You left out ending and renouncing the jihad, which I believe you've mentioned before.

The problem is what is politically possible to achieve even a temporary peace.

1. I don't think temple loyalists will accept surrendering the temple in any shape or form peacefully, since its too much of a violation of Langhorne's laws and the Holy Writ etc.

OTOH, "sharing temple access for all pilgrims" sounds so much more diplomatic, doesn't it?

2. Dismantling the council of Vicars again strikes too close to the Holy Writ and how Langhorne set things up, NTM the Inquisition's purpose was God ordained, nor will any CoGA signer last long if he so constrains the inquisition.

It might be best to separately simply reiterate that inquisitors found in alliance territories have no such authority and if caught will suffer execution, thus generally freeing some 400-500 million people from it as well as limiting it's direct effect on Howard where another 310-320 million people live by cutting its land communications.

3. While I'd love war crimes trials for the political impact, the victims are going to be seen by the TL's as martyrs not criminals until some time, possibly a couple generations, has passed.

Though it might be fun for some of those caught for trial to be so shocked by the seijins who grabbed them that they admit they must be seijins...

4. How much do you figure that is?

This might be another thread if we get too bored before October 13th.

It's unlikely the CoGA or temple could afford to pay just reparations for the SoS and the jihad, even if there were no compensation for all those killed by the SoS [there almost riots in Israel when West Germany offered reparations for Jewish property in the early 1960's as gift rather than economic loans, for perceiving them as putting a price on their relatives lives], so about the best result might be TL's refusing to pay their double tithe to avoid giving anything to the heretics.

Documenting all the SoS atrocities, from their own reports, like those from Ferayd, have the best chance of making most TL's realise and accept them as fact, so getting whoever survives to open and publish the inquisition records and reports may do more good in the long run than half or quarter paid reparations.

Are all those records in the temple now, or would the Inquisition annex hold the older stuff?

We might need a thread again to attempt to consolidate what the alliance conditions are.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Actually, I don't think I'm demanding much....

1.Surrender of the Temple to be placed under international control and access for all churches.

2.Dismantlement of the Council of Vicars and the inquisition's ability to coerce and force obedience to Zion.

3.War crimes trials held in Zion under allied authority.

4.Reparations to compensate Siddarmark for damage by SoS in Siddarmark.

Quit modest, I would think...

I'm not in favor of invading anyone who doesn't need to be invaded to accomplish the above. Trying to occupy the mainland for amy extended period of time would risk being over extended, although I would imagine that Siddarmark's borders will expand somewhat.

Hi Don,

I think many would agree with your prognosis but there are all those pesky details, like how many serfs in the BS who prefer the alliance to the status quo, etc.

I'm not sure eliminating the temple as the CoGA's central authority is possible or within the power of the alliance currently.

I like the idea of disrupting the central power structure, but assuring that is a bit more difficult, for example the vicars are Knights because they're vicars, not the other way around, their secular power a reward rather than a prerequisite to their ecclesiastic office.

One wonders if simple winning the war might upset most TL's preconceptions enough to get them to start thinking.

L

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:
I do think that a descent in force on the Temple, or assassination/kidnapping runs that can cause a long-term, radical shift in power there, may be a likely conclusion to this war. I don't see things going so long, hard, and bloody as it would be to march all across Dohlar, the Border States, and the Temple Lands, before either (a) the Group of Four sheds members fatally, restructures, and sues for terms that the Allies cannot refuse, or (b) the Allies lose too much momentum on too much hostile territory needing garrisons.

So even the at-all plausible "total" victory scenarios for this war will leave a lot of regimes in place to re-create a CoGA if they keep to the theology they've had for centuries, or actually leave the CoGA out of Zion still around.

If the Allies go for all you demand, they're too likely to be unable to hang onto it.

But there's a whole lot that can be accomplished with the shadow of triumphant Charis and Siddarmark falling across the mainland, the disgrace of the CoGA, and its bankruptcy. It may secure things more permanently to let those effects do their work on beaten nations.

Let the armed serfs return to Harchong having seen Church death camps and fraternized with "heretic" farmers in Siddarmark. Let them spread their tales across the Border States and Temple Lands as they go. Let them see decent people living decent lives without an Inquisitor to be feared.

Let the serfs and slaves of Desnair know that their cousins in Silkiah - and, I suspect, not long in Dohlar and Delferahk - live free. Let their lords know that too. And let those lords know that free labor is the only labor that's not going to slit their throats one of these nights, and that only free labor is going to let their nation escape being a backwater joke in coming decades.

Let kings and princes enjoy the feeling of the Church owing them money for once. Let them enjoy all the local orders looking to them for employment.

Let the Border States and Temple Lands know that their freedom is on Siddarmark's sufferance - and that, if Siddarmark may need a decade or two to recover, its rulers and voters have long memories and they don't want to remain their enemies that long.

Let every mainland realm look at the trade Silkiah and any other state that makes nice with the "heretics" gets. Adn the safety! And let them see that all those Charisian and Siddarmark "heretics" are just like you - only a bit more free-spoken about the guys still in Zion.

And when they all make their own changes in their own states - not necessarily bloodlessly, mind you - it will be their changes, their reforms or revolutions, for them to prize and secure, instead of something imposed on them by outsiders whose arrogance any patriot may despise.

I'm not really suggesting that the allies hang on to anything, particularly. My basic thought here is the destruction of the central authority in Zion.

That would not destroy the COGA as a whole, but it would force a reorganization that wouldn't be top down. The most difficult thing to deal with here would be governance in the Temple Lands. Apart from the Vicars also being the Knights, we really don't have much info on that. Maybe the thing to do would be to send vicars who have not been criminally active home to be the Knights. But whatever else happens, things in the Temple Lands will probably be unstable for a while, both politically and economically.

The other TL countries have political traditions that could function independently of the church.

Just guessing, I suspect that the following will happen...

The COGA will be present and tolerated in allied lands. They will have their own churches and priests, but only minimal political influence. The EOC has already established that pattern and I would expect the Republic to shortly follow suit, although given the damage the SOS caused in the Republic, I would expect that tolerance to be narrower and more difficult.

In Dohlar and Silkiah, the COGA will be curtailed, but probably have more political influence than in allied lands.

In Desnair and Harchong, very little will change, at least at first. The COGA will have to compensate for the loss of central direction from Zion by becoming national churches. The inquisition will form a devil's bargain with the local rulers by agreeing to serve in a secret police role for the state in exchange for backing in enforcing traditional COGA doctrine. The potential for unpredictability here lies in the possibility of peasant revolutions. Should that happen, it is impossible from our vantage point to know how it comes out.

The border states are for the most part backwaters and one would presume conservative which would leave the COGA with a lot of influence and possibly authority. Exactly what that will look like will depend on the political fate of the Border states after the war.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

You left out ending and renouncing the jihad, which I believe you've mentioned before.

The problem is what is politically possible to achieve even a temporary peace.

1. I don't think temple loyalists will accept surrendering the temple in any shape or form peacefully, since its too much of a violation of Langhorne's laws and the Holy Writ etc.

OTOH, "sharing temple access for all pilgrims" sounds so much more diplomatic, doesn't it?

2. Dismantling the council of Vicars again strikes too close to the Holy Writ and how Langhorne set things up, NTM the Inquisition's purpose was God ordained, nor will any CoGA signer last long if he so constrains the inquisition.

It might be best to separately simply reiterate that inquisitors found in alliance territories have no such authority and if caught will suffer execution, thus generally freeing some 400-500 million people from it as well as limiting it's direct effect on Howard where another 310-320 million people live by cutting its land communications.

3. While I'd love war crimes trials for the political impact, the victims are going to be seen by the TL's as martyrs not criminals until some time, possibly a couple generations, has passed.

Though it might be fun for some of those caught for trial to be so shocked by the seijins who grabbed them that they admit they must be seijins...

4. How much do you figure that is?

This might be another thread if we get too bored before October 13th.

It's unlikely the CoGA or temple could afford to pay just reparations for the SoS and the jihad, even if there were no compensation for all those killed by the SoS [there almost riots in Israel when West Germany offered reparations for Jewish property in the early 1960's as gift rather than economic loans, for perceiving them as putting a price on their relatives lives], so about the best result might be TL's refusing to pay their double tithe to avoid giving anything to the heretics.

Documenting all the SoS atrocities, from their own reports, like those from Ferayd, have the best chance of making most TL's realise and accept them as fact, so getting whoever survives to open and publish the inquisition records and reports may do more good in the long run than half or quarter paid reparations.

Are all those records in the temple now, or would the Inquisition annex hold the older stuff?

We might need a thread again to attempt to consolidate what the alliance conditions are.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

1, The TLs are not accepting anything peacefully right now. The real reason for occupying the Temple is to make it plain to the TLs and everybody else that the COGA is no longer in control.

2.The point of dismantling the Council of Vicars and the central authority is to reduce the COGA to its local expressions and prevent it from regrouping to where it can make or break princes. The inquisition will continue to exist in those countries beyond allied reach. Whether or not this conforms to the Writ, the TLs need to be confronted with reality that their notion of the proper order of things is not the way it is. "Conforming to the Writ" gave Safehold the question, the punishment and the SoS to say nothing of pouring 20% of the resourses of Safehold into Zion for almost a thousand years. Best that Zion be gone.


3.Yes, the TLs, or at least a portion of them, will regard those convicted at the war crimes trials as martyrs, especially at first. But for those with brain cells to rub together, the public record of the trials will be there along with the accusations and the evidence. It's kinda hard to nominate torturers and murderers for sainthood, after all's said.


4.Despite of Duchairn's efforts, the COGA's holdings world wide are huge. It's as important to impoverish the COGA as it is to help Siddarmark. Let those holdings be liquidated to pay the reparations.

The point is that this should be harsh and abrupt. We know that there is another war over this coming. Let's at least arrange it so the COGA is not who organizes and trigures it.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

1, The TLs are not accepting anything peacefully right now. The real reason for occupying the Temple is to make it plain to the TLs and everybody else that the COGA is no longer in control.

2.The point of dismantling the Council of Vicars and the central authority is to reduce the COGA to its local expressions and prevent it from regrouping to where it can make or break princes. The inquisition will continue to exist in those countries beyond allied reach. Whether or not this conforms to the Writ, the TLs need to be confronted with reality that their notion of the proper order of things is not the way it is. "Conforming to the Writ" gave Safehold the question, the punishment and the SoS to say nothing of pouring 20% of the resourses of Safehold into Zion for almost a thousand years. Best that Zion be gone.


3.Yes, the TLs, or at least a portion of them, will regard those convicted at the war crimes trials as martyrs, especially at first. But for those with brain cells to rub together, the public record of the trials will be there along with the accusations and the evidence. It's kinda hard to nominate torturers and murderers for sainthood, after all's said.


4.Despite of Duchairn's efforts, the COGA's holdings world wide are huge. It's as important to impoverish the COGA as it is to help Siddarmark. Let those holdings be liquidated to pay the reparations.

The point is that this should be harsh and abrupt. We know that there is another war over this coming. Let's at least arrange it so the COGA is not who organizes and trigures it.

Don

My impressions on each of your points,

1) The real reason to occupy the Temple is to find out what's in the basement and to neutralize it before it can do something nasty - like use the OBS on Charis or wake up a VP of an archangel, who might appear as a giant hologram above the temple declaring the invaders to be heretics, and making it impossible to end the jihad, or any variation on the theme.

Of course having the temple in the hands of the CoC is going to be a major shock to everyone. Whether their response is "The heretics seized the temple! Get them!" or "It's about time somebody did something about all those corrupt vicars in the temple!" is a matter of properly preparing the groundwork for seizing the temple. And that is where all the sleazy info that Nynian passed along to Charis will come in handy. When you know that Vicar A likes to molest kids, and he lives in the temple, you aren't going to have a problem with his head being separated from his body or that the ICA dragged him out of his temple suite and put him on trial. Lather, rinse, repeat depending on the crime.

Execute enough vicars and hold on to the Temple until a peace treaty is negotiated that includes complete access for ALL schisms of the CoGA, and the central power of the CoGA will be broken. It can't exist as a worldwide church and allow the existence of a schism - but looking down the barrel of a revolver focuses the mind marvelously!

Of course you'll have to execute a lot of inquisitors and Temple Guardsmen along the way, but that will just keep the gunners on the Haarahld VIIs and the scout snipers happy.

Revoke the requirement that everyone must visit the Temple during his/her life. That will cut down drastically on the money flowing into Zion, which will encourage the vicars to set up shop somewhere more lucrative if those type of vicars haven't gone home to the Temple Lands yet or returned to "their" sees, who may no longer want them and may send them packing or string them up for local crimes.

Keep a squadron of troops guarding the Temple at all times to ensure access for all. After a decade or so with no requirement that pilgrims visit the temple, Zion will dwindle dramatically as a city, since it lives on church largesse and tourism. Take away the money and the common people will move someplace warmer. So will the vicars.

2) Ensuring the bankruptcy of the CoGA is one way to bring it down. It's impossible to skim funds that don't exist, so reducing the "tithe" to what the word actually means, which is 10%, not 20% or more will cut down drastically on graft. It will also make it very plain where the church (or any schism) isn't paying for things it should, like soup kitchens and monasteries. Plus the vicars won't live like kings, which may help ensure that they live longer! (Reformists do not like vicars now, so how do you think they'll feel about them after the jihad is called off, God's church has been defeated, yet the local vicar is still living in wanton luxury? Oops! Torches and pitchforks time!)

Kicking all the vicars out of Zion (or executing most of them for graft, murder, child molestation, etc. will end central control from the Temple. Whether the CoGA decides to gather in Harchong, the Temple Lands, or anywhere else as its central governing location is unimportant, since the seat of the worldwide church will have been seized and the authorities of that church sent packing, or tried, imprisoned, or executed. That means that the power of the CoGA in countries who still desire to remain part of it, which may consist only of Harchong and the Temple Lands, will see the power of the vicarage shrink to the local level like it used to be. No big payoffs for helping someone cut a deal from halfway across the planet, as was done with Hanth in OAR.

Other countries may split from the CoGA for secular reasons, or simply to abolish its coercive power and to seize its properties. Dohlar may very well do that, and since Desnair is now cut off from the Temple, it may go its own way. (I see dead... inquisitors!)

The CoGA may survive in North Harchong, but if a sizable number of the MHoG return home with blood in their eyes and rifles in their hands, expect the largest slave revolt in history, accompanied by the annihilation of the military police, a bunch of whom are gonna die in Siddarmark whether they're shot in the front or the back! Plus the leadership of the CoGA in North Harchong will be up for grabs, so expect lots of backstabbing among the surviving vicars!

South Harchong will be independent from North Harchong due to the ICN ruling the Gulf of Dohlar and sinking anything that moves. So expect lots of fighting amongst the priesthood, and once things settle down, the country may continue business as usual, once the new vicar replaces the dead or imprisoned one in every see, but with slavery and a 20% tithe, plus massive skimming and bribery, they're not going to be able to compete in regards to trade, so unless they want to become almost as much a backwater as Sodar, they'll need to make some serious changes - which they won't. So in a few decades their way of life won't have changed much at all, while the EoC and Siddarmark's quality of life will have improved dramatically. Even Desnair, who I expect to create their own Church, will be better off, with a lower tithe and allowing imports again. North Harchong faces the same problems.

Silkiah will strike up a lucrative treaty with the allies and boot out the Inquisition and their assigned vicars. The EoC will be more than happy to execute whoever needs executing for them. Again, drop the tithes and seize all church properties. Bummer!

When the dust clears there will be the original CoGA in North Harchong and the Temple Lands, (both lacking a lot of dead or imprisoned vicars) a variation of it in South Harchong that doesn't take direction from the outside, whatever Sodar does, (nobody cares) the Church of Desnair, and quite possibly another in Delferahk and Selkar and any countries that don't show up on the map. If Zion isn't able to tell you what to do and you kill off the local Inquisition that terrified you into compliance, having your national version of the CoGA for mind control while skimming off half of its tithes as taxes is a pretty good deal!

And then the various schisms will go to war, branding each other as "heretics" while the Church of Siddarmark and the Church of Charis, who will be virtual clones, sit back and watch the carnage.

The Temple Lands will demand to be in control, which will rub North Harchong the wrong way, so once the massive slave revolt ends, expect those countries to be at each other's throats. I expect Siddarmark will absorb the Border States by then - either having conquered those who attacked them, or by each state's populace looking at the carnage going on to the west and voting to become part of Siddarmark to avoid having the Temple Lands come after them if they don't kiss their rings. And since Siddarmark will once again have the biggest and almost the baddest army on the planet (next to the ICA) the Temple Lands won't want anything to do with them, let alone attack them.

Desnair and South Harchong will also be at war. Apparently Desnair won't be sufficiently pious or something. Fraihan's wall exists for a reason! I just don't remember which side built it, although it seems like a Harchong thing to do, not Desnairan, but Fraihan isn't a Chinese name, which really doesn't mean much on Safehold.

I expect Desnair will notice rather quickly that expanding north is not an option, since it will have lost North Watch to Siddarmark. That means that Delferahk and Selkar's days may be numbered. I don't know if anybody wants Sodar - either South Harchong or Desnair could take it easily, but its transportation network is horrendous, so keeping troops fed during the occupation would be difficult. It may remain independent because nobody wants a mountainous nation of sheepherders, although both Desnair and South Harchong may battle for the land surrounding the southern end of Shwei Bay. Dohlar only has one country to fight, which is Siddarmark, and that's not a religious war, it's a war of retribution, so Dohlar may not exist in a decade.

So the Schisms:
Church of Charis
Church of Siddarmark
CoGA (Temple Lands)
Church of Dohlar (Unless Siddarmark conquers it first.)
CoGA (North Harchong)
CoGA (South Harchong) (Separated from North Harchong by the ICN)
Church of Silkiah
Church of Desnair
CoGA (Delferahk)
CoGA (Selkar)
CoGA (The Raven Lands) May eventually join the CoC due to having Chisholm as a neighbor and no centralized authority in Zion.
CoGA (Miscellaneous islands, Trellheim probably isn't very religious.

That's probably enough schisms for adjacent ones to start saying "My archangel can beat your archangel," after which "religious" wars will ensue, although in many cases, as in Desnair attacking Delferahk, the wars will actually be about expanding territory.

3) I agree completely, and OWL's broadsheets need to lay out the vicar's crimes before any trial, then announce the verdict, and the sentence.

4) As each country splits into its own church, I'm sure the secular authorities will be happy to seize any and all church properties that they can keep for themselves or sell for an easy mark. The Church of Siddarmark may keep most of its holdings, as would the reformist CoC, but for the former CoGA countries, the land rush is on! Since only the Temple Lands and Northern Harchong would still have any central church authority, those may be the only countries where the church's properties aren't expropriated, until they go to war against each other and need the money!

Yep, it's gonna get ugly, and I don't know how you settle a series of religious wars among countries who claim to share the same beliefs - the wars would actually be wars of expansion, as in the case of Desnair attacking Delferahk or Siddarmark finishing off Dohlar and any Border states who don't vote to join them voluntarily. The Temple Lands vs. North Harchong would be over who got to lead the "true" church, and a lot of Harchongese will die in that war, since the Temple Lands will be much more technologically advanced, although heavily outnumbered. Desnair vs. South Harchong is going to be about expansion as well - that wall is there for a reason!