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HFQ Official Snippet #28

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:47 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

The issue of whether the allies or Merlin should kill Clyntahn has been discussed on many threads here and at the bar; the consensus has been he's done more to hurt the CoGA and the temple than help it, and Merlin's oath to kill him ASAP is more an emotional response to the loss of his friends including King Haarahld VII and Gwylym Manthyr etc.

Others have pointed out that while as angry as Cayleb and Sharleyan are, as royalty they've had far more experience curbing their passions for reasons of state or the dynasty, so I expect them along with the brotherhood of St. Zherneau to put things in their proper perspective for Merlin.

Quite aside from the story telling aspect that Clyntahn makes such a good villain, I believe he's going to last until almost the very end.

Rayno could be written quite sympathetically were he to take over, which would be an interesting plot twist, but even with RFC I think its unlikely.

L



Hi Lyonheart,

I'm not suggesting or predicting that Merlin take Clyntahn down. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened that way. I think it's more likely that someone like Ducharin will or that Nynian's people will or some other combination.

Your comment that Clyntahn is hurting rather than helping the COGA is true. That could well provide impetus for getting rid of him. However it is also Clyntahn whose passion and energy thrust out through the inquisition that is driving the Jihad. So unless you really believe that the Jihad is a good thing -- which I don't-- getting rid of Clytahn would be good because without him, the inquisition fizzles.

What I am opposing right now is the idea that the Jihad should be prolonged for the sake of spurimg innovation. I see the human cost of the war being too high for that.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:15 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:Well yeah. There's a definite tension between the two. I doubt any of us would or should not place some considerable value both on the near-term end or rendering impotent of the CoGA and on ending this war sooner rather than later. But the longer it goes, the worse for the power of the CoGA. (Barring Allied triumph followed by genocide, I guess, which certainly isn't on Cayleb, Sharleyan's, Staynair's, or Merlin's wishlist.)

So it comes down to plans that somehow avoid a compromise between those two by leaping off the apparent spectrum with total success for one goal or the other and negligible success on the goal at either end, or to settling somewhere along that spectrum.

Given that we're pretty confident this isn't going to end the religious conflict on Safehold or that this war will run all the way to the Reveal, I figure it's enough to have a peace that grievously undermines the Church's authority and shatters its pretension to universality without wiping it off the face of Safehold or even driving it into muscle-less harmlessness - because that's as much as I expect to get out of a war that's not going to go on for so long and in such an ugly fashion as to make it pointless. And once the jihad ends, if the Church can no longer muster the moral authority or political muscle of the only game in town, the grievous state of its finances will do the rest of the job of bringing it down to a manageable, livable state - or less.


Hi JeffEngel,

The way I see it, the storyline here is set up as a war of survival. Some wars do have limited objectives and you can have a negotiated end to. Viet Nan comes to mind.

Other wars like the Napoleonic Wars, WW2 are wars of survival, total wars, so to speak. These wars end when one side no longer has the means to resist. The allies close in on Paris. The Russians take Berlin.

The war on Safehold is such a war. It has been declared so by both sides. I do not believe that there can be a negotiated peace. Nor should there be any more than we should have negotiated with Nazis at the end of WW2.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:34 pm

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Hi McGuiness,

Given Nahrmahn's preference for assassination to minimize the human cost of his ambitions, one wonders if he will consider even more careful and precise ones to spare Merlin.

However I don't think RFC wants Merlin to be spared, its a big part of the story he's telling.

I agree Merlin should have a had a good shot at Clyntahn when he supposedly took Gwylym Manthyr's confession, but it didn't fit the scene let alone the plot.

Moving on... ;)

I suspect if it suited RFC then Nynian has the snipers, remembering all those retired Charisian Marines who trained her riflemen, that she might be able to supply them with seijin supplied equipment "these were Seijin Khody's or a gift from Seijin Merlin" like long range sights, that are clearly obsolete and thus not a threat by temple sensor standards [made by OWL for just that purpose from 21st century tech not 24th], some interesting things might happen, again if RFC wanted it.

Since the 10" weighs 22 tons, although I believe the shells are much closer to 400 pounds than 500; there could be some army versions without too much trouble, a crane and dual recoil system for the army version using a couple dragons wouldn't be too much bother for its capabilities, and I very much like ringing the temple like a bell with your suggested internal results could prove efficacious in getting whoever made it inside to give up.

Safehold doesn't have rock and roll records etc but there are other noisemakers, and 3-4 sleepless nights ought to be enough.

The inquisitor annex is actually separate and apart from the temple, the implication is it wasn't built by the archangels, so it is far more vulnerable to 10" shells etc.

Many have suggested how Clyntahn should die, I have yet to feel someone has discovered how RFC will do it.

L


McGuiness wrote:
Randomiser wrote:From the descriptions I'm pretty sure it doesn't. It's outside the Temple and forms the impressive approach to it. I have long been of the opinion that Merlin could very probably have taken Clyntahn during the execution of Gwyllam Manthyr by sniping with a then available Charisian rifle if he had really wanted to do so.

I've never really understood why he is quite prepared to shoot troopers who get in his way, but thinks going after high-ups would be morally dubious and corrosive assassination.
Please re-read the final battle scene in OAR and tell me again that you don't understand why Merlin slaughtered every Corisandian soldier in his way in a desperate attempt to reach King Haarahld before his monarch and friend was killed, and those Merlin killed included Black Water, who commanded the entire campaign against Charis. Then tell me again why you don't understand how killing off the leadership of the opposition in battle would be morally corrosive.

If one of the scout snipers had realized Wyrshym was watching their initial encounter in the Sylmahn Gap from close range, he'd have happily put a round through him, and we'd have cheered! Remember the Battle of Haryl's Crossing in Corisande, where the first shots were all scout snipers shooting the leadership of the Corisandian army? The confusion that caused basically won the battle before the serious shooting started.

Please keep in mind that the sheer number of deaths in this war is weighing heavily on Merlin's conscience. Even if he doesn't deal the killing blow himself, he feels responsible for starting the war - which was inevitable, although his inventions did speed it up by a year or two at most, and enabled Charis to survive. The Go4 started the war over dinner, but unfortunately for them, Charis didn't do them the favor of rolling over and dying!

When Merlin was forced to kill the semaphore crews in MTaT, who weren't soldiers and were just doing their civilian jobs but had to be eliminated so the ironclads could get past them without a message being sent ahead on the semaphore chain, he agonized about having to do it, then basically shut off his brain and let his reflexes take over, because all those people were innocent. That's what's driving Merlin slowly insane, and why he was willing to use the copy of Nimue's personality for the new PICA - she was pure of the horrible deeds he'd been forced to commit. (And I bet he takes the wet jobs and leaves the skullduggery to her.)

As for assassinating the leadership of the CoGA and its armies, (other than Clyntahn) Merlin feels that the EoC should definitely not be in the business of assassinations, since it's one obvious difference between the two sides The CoGA, Clyntahn, his inquisitors and his Rakurai suicide bombers are murderous thugs, and they all kill innocents. Charis avoids that whenever possible - note that they actually take prisoners when their Siddarmarkan allies would happily kill those men instead. (Note that Mab executing soldiers and inquisitors who were guilty of brutal torture and murder was justice, not assassination.)

I'm not holding my breath that the ICA won't execute the entire staffs of the concentration camps it encounters though, and those butchers deserve it!

Moving along...

The plaza of Martyrs is just that - a plaza, meaning a flat, empty place. (Although it does have some rather nice fountains.) Platforms and seating are provided for days when the Inquisition is feeling murderous.

Using an M96, especially when high powered smokeless powder is available, Merlin could pick Clyntahn off from nearly a mile away, which would also give him time to escape. Unfortunately, whatever is under the temple might wake up if it senses the nearby presence of a PICA.

Of course a dozen scout snipers might be able to pull it off as well, since their guns have even more range, and if telescopic lenses for rifles have been introduced, they could even get a great view of the the Grand Fornicator in their crosshairs before they pull the trigger. (And another view of him looking around in confusion wondering where the bullets are coming from should they miss and have to fire again, or they could enjoy the view as he bleeds out and gives new meaning to "the Plaza of Martyrs.")

Keep in mind, there isn't a single innocent vicar or inquisitor in the plaza during the final phase of the Punishment of Schueler, and shooting the victims would give them a merciful instant death. Have you read what they do to "heretics" during the Punishment? Read about the murder of Erayk Dynnys in BSRA! So the snipers should keep on shooting until nobody on the platform is still moving, victims included, since their bodies are already tortured and broken. Death would come as a comfort to them. (Plus there's probably no chance of pulling off a rescue.)

Yes, Merlin could pick off Clyntahn whenever the fat pig sets foot outside the temple, which he almost never does. There was never a chance that Merlin could do it when Gwylym Manthyr and the last survivors of his command were murdered, because Merlin simply didn't have enough time to get there - the temple isn't in the habit of posting schedules regarding the executions of "heretics," or Clyntahn would already be dead.

I look forward to the day when Merlin skewers his Fatness with a sharp pig sticker, which is a scene that will undoubtedly exceed the scene from LaMA when Mab hung the murderous inquisitor to the wall by slamming a Charisian midshipman's dirk through the coward's chest while holding him several inches off the floor and telling him that his "church" was an abomination created by lunatics. The dirk did a lovely job of keeping the corpse above ground level until the bodies of all the murderers were found, by which time they'd joined Langhorne and company in Hell.

As for shooting the temple with 10" guns or anything else available to the ICN, hitting the temple dome might not scratch it, but the energy of the collision between a 500 lb. solid shot and the battle steel dome has to go somewhere. In all likelihood the dome would ring like a bell, and the sheer racket might rupture eardrums and internal organs. So it's not worth discounting the value of a shot like that.

However, if a Haarahld VII get that close to the Temple, it means that undercover ICM have already seized it from the inside, so its only job is to blow away any groups of Temple Guards or Inquisitors who gather and try to take the Temple back. Since it appears that the doors can be closed and barred from the inside, once the ICM take the place, it's all over except waiting for reinforcements while some specialists search the basement, and the troops play "Catch the vicar" until all the luxury apartments are empty. Then they get to decide who to hang and (if possible) who to let go - but since Clyntahn murdered the circle, Cahnyr is the only archbishop left who we actually know is worthy of his vestments.

Oh, there's LOTS of inquisitors in the temple, so the marines are going to have SO much fun! :lol:
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:56 pm

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Hi JeffEngel,

Falling somewhere in the middle of your spectrum, I feel the alliance will have the power to compel the temple and surviving vicars [on its steps or inside] to renounce and officially end the jihad, blame everything on Clyntahn if that helps destroy the power of the inquisition [though it will still have many many supporters], apologise and offer some if not full reparations [how much can they afford?] and recognise the Church of Charis and whatever other reformist churches have formed, while the semaphore has been secularized in all alliance controlled territory.

Even if the CoGA leadership reneges [Duchairn etc is dead or replaced], the effective power of the CoGA will have been broken because controlling east Haven all the way to the temple and the land access to Howard, only around 200 million or ~20% of Safehold's population will still be under the CoGA's direct contact and control, assuming the Harchong Empire still wants to take its orders.

Once the MHoG is gone, Duchairn might be willing to offer terms while the BS buffer still exists, but Clyntahn would certainly object; unless that's the trigger point when the rest of the vicarate are willing to dump the Grand Inquisitor.

There are so many options RFC can choose, its difficult to remember there are just over 8 weeks left.

L


JeffEngel wrote:
n7axw wrote:There is truth to what you are saying here. The counterbalancing question has to do with the human cost of the Jihad. I realize that this can all be viewed in terms of abstract concepts, numbers and percentages. I can assure you that neither Merlin or Cayleb see it that way or would prolong the war just to spur innovation.

I'm more of a hardliner on the subject of negotiation because I believe that freeing Safehold means destroying the political power of the COGA to coerce anyone into thinking its way and you don't do that by leaving the Temple's current management in place. But I'm also in favor of bringing the war to a victorious conclusion as quickly as possible.

Don

Well yeah. There's a definite tension between the two. I doubt any of us would or should not place some considerable value both on the near-term end or rendering impotent of the CoGA and on ending this war sooner rather than later. But the longer it goes, the worse for the power of the CoGA. (Barring Allied triumph followed by genocide, I guess, which certainly isn't on Cayleb, Sharleyan's, Staynair's, or Merlin's wishlist.)

So it comes down to plans that somehow avoid a compromise between those two by leaping off the apparent spectrum with total success for one goal or the other and negligible success on the goal at either end, or to settling somewhere along that spectrum.

Given that we're pretty confident this isn't going to end the religious conflict on Safehold or that this war will run all the way to the Reveal, I figure it's enough to have a peace that grievously undermines the Church's authority and shatters its pretension to universality without wiping it off the face of Safehold or even driving it into muscle-less harmlessness - because that's as much as I expect to get out of a war that's not going to go on for so long and in such an ugly fashion as to make it pointless. And once the jihad ends, if the Church can no longer muster the moral authority or political muscle of the only game in town, the grievous state of its finances will do the rest of the job of bringing it down to a manageable, livable state - or less.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Storm_Rider   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:21 pm

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I have always wondered about the following officer (from wiki):

Khanstahnzo Phandys was a citizen of the Temple Lands and an officer of the Temple Guard.

He was the officer who had thwarted the Wylsynn brothers' escape from the Inquisition, and personally killed Hauwerd Wylsynn when he resisted arrest. Afterwards, he was promoted to Major and became the commanding officer of Rhobair Duchairn's personal security detachment. (HFAF)


Wylsynn probably knew he and his brother were not getting out of their situation. Phandys could have been a hidden member of the circle or maybe just supportive of Wylsynn's effort against corruption. Wylsynn could have had Phandys report and kill him. This provided both the ability to avoid the inquisition and allowing Phandys to be advanced to higher responsibility. If that is true (RFC hiding him in plain sight for a long time :roll: ), he could be available to do the assignation of Clyntahn for Duchairn or Nynian since he is in the temple and has one of the keys to open doors. He could also be reporting to Nynian's other agents or available for other roles.

It would be just like the author to have him seem like a loyal Temple Guard while making him available in a future book for a complete reversal. :o
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:21 am

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Storm_Rider wrote:I have always wondered about the following officer (from wiki):

Khanstahnzo Phandys was a citizen of the Temple Lands and an officer of the Temple Guard.

He was the officer who had thwarted the Wylsynn brothers' escape from the Inquisition, and personally killed Hauwerd Wylsynn when he resisted arrest. Afterwards, he was promoted to Major and became the commanding officer of Rhobair Duchairn's personal security detachment. (HFAF)


Wylsynn probably knew he and his brother were not getting out of their situation. Phandys could have been a hidden member of the circle or maybe just supportive of Wylsynn's effort against corruption. Wylsynn could have had Phandys report and kill him. This provided both the ability to avoid the inquisition and allowing Phandys to be advanced to higher responsibility. If that is true (RFC hiding him in plain sight for a long time :roll: ), he could be available to do the assignation of Clyntahn for Duchairn or Nynian since he is in the temple and has one of the keys to open doors. He could also be reporting to Nynian's other agents or available for other roles.

It would be just like the author to have him seem like a loyal Temple Guard while making him available in a future book for a complete reversal. :o


There has been a lot of speculation here on the Safehold Forums along this line. However the storyline actually ends up playing out, this does make sense.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:03 am

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Hi Don,

Yup.

L

How's that for brevity? :D


n7axw wrote:*quote="Storm_Rider"*I have always wondered about the following officer (from wiki):

Khanstahnzo Phandys was a citizen of the Temple Lands and an officer of the Temple Guard.

He was the officer who had thwarted the Wylsynn brothers' escape from the Inquisition, and personally killed Hauwerd Wylsynn when he resisted arrest. Afterwards, he was promoted to Major and became the commanding officer of Rhobair Duchairn's personal security detachment. (HFAF)


Wylsynn probably knew he and his brother were not getting out of their situation. Phandys could have been a hidden member of the circle or maybe just supportive of Wylsynn's effort against corruption. Wylsynn could have had Phandys report and kill him. This provided both the ability to avoid the inquisition and allowing Phandys to be advanced to higher responsibility. If that is true (RFC hiding him in plain sight for a long time :roll: ), he could be available to do the assignation of Clyntahn for Duchairn or Nynian since he is in the temple and has one of the keys to open doors. He could also be reporting to Nynian's other agents or available for other roles.

It would be just like the author to have him seem like a loyal Temple Guard while making him available in a future book for a complete reversal. :o*quote*

There has been a lot of speculation here on the Safehold Forums along this line. However the storyline actually ends up playing out, this does make sense.

Don
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by JeffEngel   » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 am

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n7axw wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:Well yeah. There's a definite tension between the two. I doubt any of us would or should not place some considerable value both on the near-term end or rendering impotent of the CoGA and on ending this war sooner rather than later. But the longer it goes, the worse for the power of the CoGA. (Barring Allied triumph followed by genocide, I guess, which certainly isn't on Cayleb, Sharleyan's, Staynair's, or Merlin's wishlist.)

So it comes down to plans that somehow avoid a compromise between those two by leaping off the apparent spectrum with total success for one goal or the other and negligible success on the goal at either end, or to settling somewhere along that spectrum.

Given that we're pretty confident this isn't going to end the religious conflict on Safehold or that this war will run all the way to the Reveal, I figure it's enough to have a peace that grievously undermines the Church's authority and shatters its pretension to universality without wiping it off the face of Safehold or even driving it into muscle-less harmlessness - because that's as much as I expect to get out of a war that's not going to go on for so long and in such an ugly fashion as to make it pointless. And once the jihad ends, if the Church can no longer muster the moral authority or political muscle of the only game in town, the grievous state of its finances will do the rest of the job of bringing it down to a manageable, livable state - or less.


Hi JeffEngel,

The way I see it, the storyline here is set up as a war of survival. Some wars do have limited objectives and you can have a negotiated end to. Viet Nan comes to mind.

Other wars like the Napoleonic Wars, WW2 are wars of survival, total wars, so to speak. These wars end when one side no longer has the means to resist. The allies close in on Paris. The Russians take Berlin.

The war on Safehold is such a war. It has been declared so by both sides. I do not believe that there can be a negotiated peace. Nor should there be any more than we should have negotiated with Nazis at the end of WW2.

Don

"Means to resist" themselves fall on a sort of continuum. You can have your will and ability to deploy armies in the field broken without having your will and ability to conduct guerrilla warfare or a worrisome low-level insurgency broken with it.

You can have the crushing victories without leaving yourself nothing, ever, to worry about on the other side of the field and no one you need to discuss terms with. At the end of the Napoleonic Wars, there was still a France - large and a part of the Congress of Vienna, with one monarch traded for another. It was certainly considerably defanged and spent the next 50 years with everyone looking at it suspiciously - and then kicked around for German political uses in 1870. But still, very much a player, especially overseas. And after WWII, even split and occupied, Germany was a player in the system on either side.

If you don't want someone you have to deal with - even from a position of distinct advantage - you don't beat Napoleon like Wellington and friends did, or Germany like the Allies did. You beat Carthage like Rome did. March in, kill everyone you don't sell off into slavery, break the buildings, salt the earth. A milder version is occupation, assimilation, and wiping out everything that gives them any continuity with the cultural identity they had before. Charis doesn't do that in its own territory - it's not going to be able to do it across Harchong and Desnair. And it's certainly got no interest in Carthaginian resolutions.

I don't think this phase is going to end with any negotiations where both sides come to the table as approximate peers and simply wrap up fighting. Please don't read me that way. It's going to end with terms pretty well dictated to the CoGA, but they're going to be terms that don't go far beyond the articulated war aims of the EoC: we get to exist; you recognize you lost; the relevant dirty laundry on your side is aired; and various provisions to make this kind of business even harder may be included.

But there's still going to be a CoGA on the other side of the table. It's going to have its universality broken, right there in the treaty. It'll have the jihad renounced and likely everyone involved in the Sword of Schueler and the death camps handed off for trial without benefit of clerical status. Oh, and it's going to be broke and in debt, but that's not even needed as part of the treaty. But even if the Allies could demand the destruction of that church, they could not enforce it without occupying the rest of Haven and Howard and they cannot pull that off. Aiming for provisions you cannot enforce - whatever your military superiority right now in the field - would be stupid and begging for the defeated parties to rise back up.

It'll be enough to break the Church's claims in the treaty and let its finances and national interests do the rest. Give things another decade or two and Safehold will ready itself for the next step.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Randomiser   » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:23 am

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Hi All. Back after a break.

On the assassination thing, McGuinness

1. I'm not military, but I don't see why shooting an unsuspecting sergeant from hiding is a perfectly acceptable ambush but shooting an unsuspecting general from hiding is a dastardly assassination.

2. Clyntahn is inspiring, directing, enforcing and fuelling the Jihad, so he is a perfectly respectable military target whether or not he happens to wear a uniform.

3. I rather suspect the Inquisition do post a schedule for executions in Zion. How else do they get the crowds to attend?

4. I recognise all the issues raised about whether killing Clyntahn is often feasible or would be helpful for Merlin's longer term Aim, but I'm with Don as regards trying to minimise the cost in war dead.

5. I think, 'We won't shoot at their their rulers so they won't shoot at us,' is the most unutterably hypocritical cowardice and the furthest thing from the minds of Cayleb and Sharleyan imaginable. It is equivalent to saying 'We don't mind putting our vassals and subjects, whom we are sworn to protect, in harm's way, but by no means are we prepared to put ourselves in any danger.' Does that sound like either of our monarchs to you?

6. I recognise there are all sorts of storyline reasons why Clyntahn probably survives until the last minute, and maybe even beyond, as a fugitive, say. But I was responding to the 'Merlin would love to shoot Clyntahn but can't,' suggestion upthread.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Peter2   » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:29 am

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JeffEngel wrote:[snip]
But there's still going to be a CoGA on the other side of the table. It's going to have its universality broken, right there in the treaty. It'll have the jihad renounced and likely everyone involved in the Sword of Schueler and the death camps handed off for trial without benefit of clerical status. Oh, and it's going to be broke and in debt, but that's not even needed as part of the treaty. But even if the Allies could demand the destruction of that church, they could not enforce it without occupying the rest of Haven and Howard and they cannot pull that off. Aiming for provisions you cannot enforce - whatever your military superiority right now in the field - would be stupid and begging for the defeated parties to rise back up.



Absolutely.

I'm pushed for time just at present, and working purely from memory here, so forgive me if I make some errors, but weren't there a couple of sections early on in the saga that said, in effect, that the Church of Charis had reverted to an earlier stage of the CoGA, where people were encouraged to think for themselves in deciding what was sinful and what was not? In other words, the Church guided rather than commanded?

And I think there was something else I can't remember fully, about the appointment of senior clergy?

The point I'm getting to is that it may be more acceptable to the hard-core CoGA-ists to revert to the earlier, freer, format of the Church, instead of destroying the reputations of Langhorne etc. all of a sudden. They may be more prepared to accept error in High Churchmen – who are, after all, merely human – rather than the so-called Archangels. That might smooth things over long enough for the naked (or possibly scantily clad) truth to sink in.
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