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HFQ Official Snippet #28

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:55 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
McGuiness wrote:As for assassinating the leadership of the CoGA and its armies, (other than Clyntahn) Merlin feels that the EoC should definitely not be in the business of assassinations, since it's one obvious difference between the two sides The CoGA, Clyntahn, his inquisitors and his Rakurai suicide bombers are murderous thugs, and they all kill innocents. Charis avoids that whenever possible - note that they actually take prisoners when their Siddarmarkan allies would happily kill those men instead. (Note that Mab executing soldiers and inquisitors who were guilty of brutal torture and murder was justice, not assassination.)
Skipping assassinations as a matter of Imperial policy is the call of the joint monarchs. It's relevant for any monarch that a policy of assassination begs response in kind, at the time and as a precedent for the future, and such reprisals put the monarchs in danger they would not otherwise be in. It's a cynical reason, so it probably applies to Cayleb and Sharleyan less than any other monarchs, but there's no reason to think they are so virtuous they are blind to that themselves. (Neither of them would care for a policy that puts the other in any more danger, ever. Or Alanah, in the future.) And in this case, the Church is already in the business of attempting to assassinate them, so the cynical worries would be only about the precedents set rather than response in kind in this conflict.

I'm not holding my breath that the ICA won't execute the entire staffs of the concentration camps it encounters though, and those butchers deserve it!
Well, yeah. The EoC is trying to keep its own conduct within the traditional customs and usages of war on Safehold, even when its enemies and some of its allies do not. But death camps fall outside those customs and under the "mass murder" legal consideration. Have trials, no reason they'll take long, and execute sentence - a very straightforward one on Safehold, even if wartime expediency may make it even more compelling.
Moving along...

The plaza of Martyrs is just that - a plaza, meaning a flat, empty place. (Although it does have some rather nice fountains.) Platforms and seating are provided for days when the Inquisition is feeling murderous.

Using an M96, especially when high powered smokeless powder is available, Merlin could pick Clyntahn off from nearly a mile away, which would also give him time to escape. Unfortunately, whatever is under the temple might wake up if it senses the nearby presence of a PICA.

Of course a dozen scout snipers might be able to pull it off as well, since their guns have even more range, and if telescopic lenses for rifles have been introduced, they could even get a great view of the the Grand Fornicator in their crosshairs before they pull the trigger. (And another view of him looking around in confusion wondering where the bullets are coming from should they miss and have to fire again, or they could enjoy the view as he bleeds out and gives new meaning to "the Plaza of Martyrs.")

Well, they would still have to get going. Having a great head start doesn't mean you can squander it, even if you miss a well-earned spectacle.

I wonder if Terran Federation contact lenses and a scout-sniper rifle built in the Cave to TF machine tolerances and quality control, in the hands of a (human) scout-sniper in the Inner Circle, may not do even better. Or, for that matter, one could substitute for the Charisian sniper there one of Nynian's operatives, who are probably in a better position to get a good spot and have an exit strategy. (Assuming one of them would be both a good enough shot and all the way in by the time the opportunity comes up.)


Nynian has commented that getting through Clyntahn's security is not something she has the capability to do. However, I doubt that she was taking into account the possibility of a sniper. We do know that she has at least one intel sourse inside the Temple. If she were to learn that Clyntahn was stepping outside of the Temple at a given time and had someone with a rifle perched on a roof in view of the Plaza of Martyrs, well...

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by DDHvi   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:28 am

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Killing Clyntahn could be counterproductive in another way.

Imagine some member of the inner circle is looking through OWL's religious records, and notices Romans 9:17. He then produces the view the God is allowing Clyntahn and cronies into power just at the time period when Nimue first awakes - to make the transition easier. After all, in Moses' day, it wouldn't have been easy to get a batch of slaves to leave the current superpower (Egypt) without a really nasty Pharoah in charge. Even then, you read of complaints about needing to leave Egypt while they are passing through the wilderness. And in DW's fictional bookverse, it would be much harder to produce the meeded change in attitude, without a really nasty (and corrupt, in this case) person in charge of the Temple.

The stress may be needed to force change, since most people do not like basic change, no matter what the evidence.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Keith_w   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:32 am

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DDHvi wrote:Killing Clyntahn could be counterproductive in another way.

Imagine some member of the inner circle is looking through OWL's religious records, and notices Romans 9:17. He then produces the view the God is allowing Clyntahn and cronies into power just at the time period when Nimue first awakes - to make the transition easier. After all, in Moses' day, it wouldn't have been easy to get a batch of slaves to leave the current superpower (Egypt) without a really nasty Pharoah in charge. Even then, you read of complaints about needing to leave Egypt while they are passing through the wilderness. And in DW's fictional bookverse, it would be much harder to produce the meeded change in attitude, without a really nasty (and corrupt, in this case) person in charge of the Temple.

The stress may be needed to force change, since most people do not like basic change, no matter what the evidence.


So basically what you are saying is that EoC is not assassinating Clyntahn for the same reasons that the Allies didn't assinate Hitler in WWII, and the same reasons that various members of the German General Staff tried to - if you get rid of a bad leader, you may end up with a good leader.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:58 am

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Keith_w wrote:
DDHvi wrote:Killing Clyntahn could be counterproductive in another way.

Imagine some member of the inner circle is looking through OWL's religious records, and notices Romans 9:17. He then produces the view the God is allowing Clyntahn and cronies into power just at the time period when Nimue first awakes - to make the transition easier. After all, in Moses' day, it wouldn't have been easy to get a batch of slaves to leave the current superpower (Egypt) without a really nasty Pharoah in charge. Even then, you read of complaints about needing to leave Egypt while they are passing through the wilderness. And in DW's fictional bookverse, it would be much harder to produce the meeded change in attitude, without a really nasty (and corrupt, in this case) person in charge of the Temple.

The stress may be needed to force change, since most people do not like basic change, no matter what the evidence.


So basically what you are saying is that EoC is not assassinating Clyntahn for the same reasons that the Allies didn't assinate Hitler in WWII, and the same reasons that various members of the German General Staff tried to - if you get rid of a bad leader, you may end up with a good leader.


I see what's being said here. But it is also possible, and I think a bit more likely, that Clyntahn is the drving power behind the Jihad. If he's gone, it loses a lot of its steam.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by evilauthor   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:05 pm

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n7axw wrote:I see what's being said here. But it is also possible, and I think a bit more likely, that Clyntahn is the drving power behind the Jihad. If he's gone, it loses a lot of its steam.

Don


You mean the same Jyhad that's currently alienating all of Safehold from the Church and forcing people to innovate if they want to survive as any kind of military power? Isn't that a GOOD thing from the point of view of the Get Humanity to Innovate Again Plan?

Quite frankly, when it comes to bringing down Langhorne's Plan, you couldn't ask for a "better" CoGA leader to tear it down than Clyntahn.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Tonto Silerheels   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:13 pm

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evilauthor wrote:

Quite frankly, when it comes to bringing down Langhorne's Plan, you couldn't ask for a "better" CoGA leader to tear it down than Clyntahn.

You may recall that Merlin has said that he would assassinate Clyntahn if he got the chance. So, at least in his estimation, Clyntahn does more harm than good.

~Tonto
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:36 pm

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evilauthor wrote:
n7axw wrote:I see what's being said here. But it is also possible, and I think a bit more likely, that Clyntahn is the drving power behind the Jihad. If he's gone, it loses a lot of its steam.

Don


You mean the same Jyhad that's currently alienating all of Safehold from the Church and forcing people to innovate if they want to survive as any kind of military power? Isn't that a GOOD thing from the point of view of the Get Humanity to Innovate Again Plan?

Quite frankly, when it comes to bringing down Langhorne's Plan, you couldn't ask for a "better" CoGA leader to tear it down than Clyntahn.


There is truth to what you are saying here. The counterbalancing question has to do with the human cost of the Jihad. I realize that this can all be viewed in terms of abstract concepts, numbers and percentages. I can assure you that neither Merlin or Cayleb see it that way or would prolong the war just to spur innovation.

I'm more of a hardliner on the subject of negotiation because I believe that freeing Safehold means destroying the political power of the COGA to coerce anyone into thinking its way and you don't do that by leaving the Temple's current management in place. But I'm also in favor of bringing the war to a victorious conclusion as quickly as possible.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Expert snuggler   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:51 pm

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If memory serves, Duchairn now sees the jihad as a "tiger by the tail" situation where there's no safe way to let go.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by JeffEngel   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:54 pm

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n7axw wrote:There is truth to what you are saying here. The counterbalancing question has to do with the human cost of the Jihad. I realize that this can all be viewed in terms of abstract concepts, numbers and percentages. I can assure you that neither Merlin or Cayleb see it that way or would prolong the war just to spur innovation.

I'm more of a hardliner on the subject of negotiation because I believe that freeing Safehold means destroying the political power of the COGA to coerce anyone into thinking its way and you don't do that by leaving the Temple's current management in place. But I'm also in favor of bringing the war to a victorious conclusion as quickly as possible.

Don

Well yeah. There's a definite tension between the two. I doubt any of us would or should not place some considerable value both on the near-term end or rendering impotent of the CoGA and on ending this war sooner rather than later. But the longer it goes, the worse for the power of the CoGA. (Barring Allied triumph followed by genocide, I guess, which certainly isn't on Cayleb, Sharleyan's, Staynair's, or Merlin's wishlist.)

So it comes down to plans that somehow avoid a compromise between those two by leaping off the apparent spectrum with total success for one goal or the other and negligible success on the goal at either end, or to settling somewhere along that spectrum.

Given that we're pretty confident this isn't going to end the religious conflict on Safehold or that this war will run all the way to the Reveal, I figure it's enough to have a peace that grievously undermines the Church's authority and shatters its pretension to universality without wiping it off the face of Safehold or even driving it into muscle-less harmlessness - because that's as much as I expect to get out of a war that's not going to go on for so long and in such an ugly fashion as to make it pointless. And once the jihad ends, if the Church can no longer muster the moral authority or political muscle of the only game in town, the grievous state of its finances will do the rest of the job of bringing it down to a manageable, livable state - or less.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Aug 17, 2015 6:14 pm

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Hi Don,

The issue of whether the allies or Merlin should kill Clyntahn has been discussed on many threads here and at the bar; the consensus has been he's done more to hurt the CoGA and the temple than help it, and Merlin's oath to kill him ASAP is more an emotional response to the loss of his friends including King Haarahld VII and Gwylym Manthyr etc.

Others have pointed out that while as angry as Cayleb and Sharleyan are, as royalty they've had far more experience curbing their passions for reasons of state or the dynasty, so I expect them along with the brotherhood of St. Zherneau to put things in their proper perspective for Merlin.

Quite aside from the story telling aspect that Clyntahn makes such a good villain, I believe he's going to last until almost the very end.

Rayno could be written quite sympathetically were he to take over, which would be an interesting plot twist, but even with RFC I think its unlikely.

L


n7axw wrote:
evilauthor wrote:*quote="n7axw"*
I see what's being said here. But it is also possible, and I think a bit more likely, that Clyntahn is the drving power behind the Jihad. If he's gone, it loses a lot of its steam.

Don*quote*

You mean the same Jyhad that's currently alienating all of Safehold from the Church and forcing people to innovate if they want to survive as any kind of military power? Isn't that a GOOD thing from the point of view of the Get Humanity to Innovate Again Plan?

Quite frankly, when it comes to bringing down Langhorne's Plan, you couldn't ask for a "better" CoGA leader to tear it down than Clyntahn.


There is truth to what you are saying here. The counterbalancing question has to do with the human cost of the Jihad. I realize that this can all be viewed in terms of abstract concepts, numbers and percentages. I can assure you that neither Merlin or Cayleb see it that way or would prolong the war just to spur innovation.

I'm more of a hardliner on the subject of negotiation because I believe that freeing Safehold means destroying the political power of the COGA to coerce anyone into thinking its way and you don't do that by leaving the Temple's current management in place. But I'm also in favor of bringing the war to a victorious conclusion as quickly as possible.

Don
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