Total $Tax Rates$ In The Honorverse? ...

noblehunter wrote:The asteroid miners are going to be running full out to supply the materials for the re-building effort. And there'll be plenty of shipping to send material to anywhere in non-Solly space if not. Those imports will also give some of the newly available merchies something to haul as well. Then there's all the new trade with Haven.

I don't think it's a question of who has trillions of Manticoran dollars, it's who'd want them (I'm assuming the Honorverse runs on pure fiat currencies and that they've solved the major pitfalls with them). Talbott, Lynx, and Silesia should have a huge appetite for Manticoran-denomitated capital. If money works the way I think it does, they could print money hand over fist for a while before worrying about inflation because there's so much potential for new production. There's just so much more economy to invest it in.

They can produce lots of bulk metal. They have no ability to actually do anything with the ingots, so unless you want to try to build a space station out of welded together metal ingots they can't do much towards rebuilding. It's a bootstrapping problem, and the Manticore solution was to get Beowulf to build them the facilities they need. Oddly enough Beowulf has miners who produce the raw materials for Beowulf industry.

Nobody needs bulk exports of raw material, as asteroid mining is so cheap and effective that paying for shipping and arranging the logistics just isn't worth it. Who of their allies has an industrialized planet that has no source of bulk raw material? Given it would be pretty dumb to build an industrial infrastructure without any raw materials handy I suspect they tend to be as rare as underwater airports or seaports in Kansas.

Manticore has NO ability to build stuff locally, so they have to buy it from someone else. Who has to think your money is worth something. Would you sell your house to someone who handed you pink "Joe Reserve" notes in payment?

So eventually they can do rebuilding locally, but only when someone has built them the infrastructure. And, as I've gone into great detail on this before, they are likely to be much more tightly integrated into Beowulf's economy for pretty much forever.

Overall the entire plot line is a problem. The fact that RMN isn't acting like there is a problem is a pretty good sign that David isn't serious about this.

kzt wrote:They can produce lots of bulk metal. They have no ability to actually do anything with the ingots, so unless you want to try to build a space station out of welded together metal ingots they can't do much towards rebuilding. It's a bootstrapping problem, and the Manticore solution was to get Beowulf to build them the facilities they need. Oddly enough Beowulf has miners who produce the raw materials for Beowulf industry.

Nobody needs bulk exports of raw material, as asteroid mining is so cheap and effective that paying for shipping and arranging the logistics just isn't worth it. Who of their allies has an industrialized planet that has no source of bulk raw material? Given it would be pretty dumb to build an industrial infrastructure without any raw materials handy I suspect they tend to be as rare as underwater airports or seaports in Kansas.

Manticore has NO ability to build stuff locally, so they have to buy it from someone else. Who has to think your money is worth something. Would you sell your house to someone who handed you pink "Joe Reserve" notes in payment?

So eventually they can do rebuilding locally, but only when someone has built them the infrastructure. And, as I've gone into great detail on this before, they are likely to be much more tightly integrated into Beowulf's economy for pretty much forever.

Overall the entire plot line is a problem. The fact that RMN isn't acting like there is a problem is a pretty good sign that David isn't serious about this.

I imagine there's systems in the Talbot Quandrant that could use imports to supplement local extraction efforts as the need for space based infrastructure explodes. Just because Beowulf or Talbott or Silesia have miners doesn't mean they have enough for the sudden increase in demand. IIRC moving stuff around in the honorverse is pretty cheap between impellers and anti-grav.

Why wouldn't the first thing that's rebuilt be the the battle steel smelters or whatever? If for no other reason than the sooner parts of the supply chain are actually functional, the sooner they can start getting the workforce in place. Not to mention start building things in parallel.

The strength of Manticoran notes has almost nothing to do with their industry. They could issue debt almost endlessly based on the Junction alone. Unless Manticore or interstellar trade ceases to exist (the former more likely to go than the latter), transit fees will enable Manticore to pay almost any sum back. At the moment, interstellar trade is significantly disrupted but it'll go back to normal or pretty much all investments would go bad.

I'd certainly accept notes backed by someone collecting tolls on the combination of Panama, Suez, the Sound, Kiel, Malacca, and Gibralter.

You say you've hashed this all out elsewhere, I would appreciate a link.

kzt wrote:They can produce lots of bulk metal. They have no ability to actually do anything with the ingots, so unless you want to try to build a space station out of welded together metal ingots they can't do much towards rebuilding. It's a bootstrapping problem, and the Manticore solution was to get Beowulf to build them the facilities they need. Oddly enough Beowulf has miners who produce the raw materials for Beowulf industry.

Nobody needs bulk exports of raw material, as asteroid mining is so cheap and effective that paying for shipping and arranging the logistics just isn't worth it. Who of their allies has an industrialized planet that has no source of bulk raw material? Given it would be pretty dumb to build an industrial infrastructure without any raw materials handy I suspect they tend to be as rare as underwater airports or seaports in Kansas.

Manticore has NO ability to build stuff locally, so they have to buy it from someone else. Who has to think your money is worth something. Would you sell your house to someone who handed you pink "Joe Reserve" notes in payment?

So eventually they can do rebuilding locally, but only when someone has built them the infrastructure. And, as I've gone into great detail on this before, they are likely to be much more tightly integrated into Beowulf's economy for pretty much forever.

Overall the entire plot line is a problem. The fact that RMN isn't acting like there is a problem is a pretty good sign that David isn't serious about this.

I still want to know what the 300 million people living in space in the Manticore B system are doing - they all can't be asteroid miners or Miner support, or else they are still mining with picks. It's just hard to believe that there isn't a single Wally's Widgets or Candy's Cogs which have a satellite plant amongst those 300 Million people. Maybe it's a space retirement community, and nobody does nothing.....

I get it that Weber wanted to geld Manticore's war effort, but there's so much "power of the plot" going on that you need to ignore economics rules, swallow the pabulum and just keep reading without analyzing it too hard, or it just kinda falls apart.

kzt wrote:They can produce lots of bulk metal. They have no ability to actually do anything with the ingots, so unless you want to try to build a space station out of welded together metal ingots they can't do much towards rebuilding. It's a bootstrapping problem, and the Manticore solution was to get Beowulf to build them the facilities they need. Oddly enough Beowulf has miners who produce the raw materials for Beowulf industry.

Nobody needs bulk exports of raw material, as asteroid mining is so cheap and effective that paying for shipping and arranging the logistics just isn't worth it. Who of their allies has an industrialized planet that has no source of bulk raw material? Given it would be pretty dumb to build an industrial infrastructure without any raw materials handy I suspect they tend to be as rare as underwater airports or seaports in Kansas.

In the SITS setting books there is some discussion of the "triangle trade" with Silensia. Most ships on the return trip from Silensia grabbed raw ore on their return trip to Manticore - the ships were running mostly empty and the ore from the eastern 1/2 of Silensia could be purchased and shipped back to Manticore for a few cents cheaper than the local extraction costs in Manticore so the shipping firms could even squeak out a profit on the return trip if nothing better was found to ship. The amount of ore the Manticorian economy was using was huge, so every little extra bit helped.

noblehunter wrote:Why wouldn't the first thing that's rebuilt be the the battle steel smelters or whatever? If for no other reason than the sooner parts of the supply chain are actually functional, the sooner they can start getting the workforce in place. Not to mention start building things in parallel.

No the first thing you need is an orbital station where you can put all this stuff. Which they cannot build at anything close to current tech without having an industrial plant. So they need to get someone to build this. Which means they need to design it, then pay someone to build it - either in modules pulled through the WH or on site. So there goes a year, as I tend to doubt anyone has a multi KM sized industrial platform sitting in boxes, and if they do its and SL world and Manticore can't buy it.

The strength of Manticoran notes has almost nothing to do with their industry. They could issue debt almost endlessly based on the Junction alone. Unless Manticore or interstellar trade ceases to exist (the former more likely to go than the latter), transit fees will enable Manticore to pay almost any sum back. At the moment, interstellar trade is significantly disrupted but it'll go back to normal or pretty much all investments would go bad.

I'd certainly accept notes backed by someone collecting tolls on the combination of Panama, Suez, the Sound, Kiel, Malacca, and Gibralter.

It's like this: you are Panama and own the Panama Canal. It provides a billion dollars a year income after expenses. You decide to ban ships owned or flagged by Japanese, Chinese, U.S., EU and Russian companies, and prohibit Panamanian registered shops form going to those countries. Do you predict this will increase or decrease your revenue?

Would you lend 2 trillion dollars to Panama secured by this revenue? Why or why not?

kzt wrote:They can produce lots of bulk metal. They have no ability to actually do anything with the ingots, so unless you want to try to build a space station out of welded together metal ingots they can't do much towards rebuilding. It's a bootstrapping problem, and the Manticore solution was to get Beowulf to build them the facilities they need. Oddly enough Beowulf has miners who produce the raw materials for Beowulf industry.

You keep saying this, but it simply is not true. At this point, Manticore most certainly DOES have some industry running. According to the timeline given by White Haven, Manticore should be getting ships out of the shipyards within months now. Manticore has industry running, and more coming online all the time.

When is "now"?

kzt wrote:No the first thing you need is an orbital station where you can put all this stuff. Which they cannot build at anything close to current tech without having an industrial plant. So they need to get someone to build this. Which means they need to design it, then pay someone to build it - either in modules pulled through the WH or on site. So there goes a year, as I tend to doubt anyone has a multi KM sized industrial platform sitting in boxes, and if they do its and SL world and Manticore can't buy it.

A year to build something? What makes you think it will take a year? And you seem to be forgetting the Andies, Silesia, Haven, and the rest of the inhabited galaxy. Just because the Verge is made of less-industrial backwaters doesn't mean the League is the only source of heavy industry.

In a situation like this, one doesn't wait for a complete replacement for Hephaestus to get off the drawing board. You slap together a bunch of good-enough off the shelf modules and develop the rest when you've got time.

It's like this: you are Panama and own the Panama Canal. It provides a billion dollars a year income after expenses. You decide to ban ships owned or flagged by Japanese, Chinese, U.S., EU and Russian companies, and prohibit Panamanian registered shops form going to those countries. Do you predict this will increase or decrease your revenue?

Would you lend 2 trillion dollars to Panama secured by this revenue? Why or why not?

By reducing it to Panama, you're grossly understating the significance of the Junction. Also, a billion is ridiculously low, try a trillion. Lacoon has killed traffic for the moment but it will come back. No one would believe that Manticore can sustain the embargo indefinitely. If Manticore exists at all to pay its debts, trade through the Junction will resume.

And you forgot to mention that Panama has complete and unquestionable military superiority for at least the next five years (probably more than a US/USSR alliance would have). So I'd certainly lend them money on a 5 year term and by then it would be obvious that the League is done.

kzt wrote:When is "now"?

Now is as of the end of ART.

noblehunter wrote:

kzt wrote:No the first thing you need is an orbital station where you can put all this stuff. Which they cannot build at anything close to current tech without having an industrial plant. So they need to get someone to build this. Which means they need to design it, then pay someone to build it - either in modules pulled through the WH or on site. So there goes a year, as I tend to doubt anyone has a multi KM sized industrial platform sitting in boxes, and if they do its and SL world and Manticore can't buy it.

A year to build something? What makes you think it will take a year? And you seem to be forgetting the Andies, Silesia, Haven, and the rest of the inhabited galaxy. Just because the Verge is made of less-industrial backwaters doesn't mean the League is the only source of heavy industry.

How long does it take to build a SD that you have plan for and have a validated design and equipment already optimized. 18 months at best, with a highly experienced crew serially building just that ship, with all the parts needed already available.

So now you want to build something at least an order of magnitude bigger, without any existing plans. And it needs to accommodate a whole range of massive factory equipment that as yet needs to be built. How long do you think it will take? Hell, how long will the design process take? Which can't even start until after you put together the specifications for what it is supposed to do and accommodate. Then you need to order all the long lead-time parts.

And you forgot to mention that Panama has complete and unquestionable military superiority for at least the next five years (probably more than a US/USSR alliance would have). So I'd certainly lend them money on a 5 year term and by then it would be obvious that the League is done.

Which isn't a plus. Essentially there is no way to get the money back if they tell you they don't want to pay or realize that can't pay. Since they really badly need the infrastructure built they have every reason to be optimistic on how they can pay it back. And if they can't or decide they won't you will do what? Stamp you feet and hold your breath until you turn blue?