HFQ Official Snippet #28

PeterZ wrote:Visions that are given to Hektor might allow him to accompany the KH VIIs and perhaps direct their fire with surprising accuracy. Besides providing phenomenal firing solutions, Hektor might be on hand to guide the ICN at sea.

Notes that appear mysteriously on board ships traveling as fast as the KHs might draw more questions than they are worth. Better to have a junior seijin develop than have truly "impossible" things happen routinely. Those visions begin as insights or intuition and gradually grow more explicit. Of course both Merlin and Nimue and nod sagaciously and agree that receiving that sort of gift comes at different ages. Heck, they wouldn't be surprised if Keys began experiencing similar insights.

Would it be possible do you think to configure a SNARC as a "messenger Wyvern" which could swoop down to a ship with a VITAL message and fly off again and disappear over the horizon?
So that everyone can see the message being delivered, even as they wonder how the "Wyvern" could find them
(Hide it in full view)
This would have to be used very carefully

Hi Don,

There are a couple of points to consider:

First, there's the contradiction between Kaitswyrth being in excellent supply and doubts about it delaying 30-40,000 apparently critical reinforcements through a miserable winter when they could have reached him before the canals were iced in, given Siddar City's fountains hadn't been turned off yet in November of 895 [HFaF] and Aivahnstyn and the Charayn Canal are about the same latitude as SC, so they had twice the time needed to get those troops to him if they thought he needed them so badly.
Secondly, the 250,000 man figure less the 50-60,000 reinforcements mentioned indicates he has already been reinforced by 40-50,000 men from the combined 150,000 he had, including 50,000 TL's, at the end of MTaT, but no indication any of these were armed with rifles.

Given the emphasis on rifles in the briefing, I would've expected the seijin to have mentioned any other sources, including replacements for his lost ones, unless the Archbishop already knew they had been replaced, for which we have no textev.

Since part of the briefing is a review, such should have come up but they didn't.

So, until RFC says differently, I have my doubts they're there, even though it makes more sense for such replacements.

Unfortunately, the next question then is who got them?

All the textev says Kaitswyrth still has his pikes and other hindrances, and had made no organizational changes as Nybar and Wyrshym have done; so who replaced the 19,000 or more riflemen from the 29,000 casualties?

Who has trained them?

Etc, etc.

Personally, the more rifles captured the better for the RSA to re-equip their internal security forces and the sooner they eliminate the remaining TL's, so I look forward to there being more if there are more; without textev I'll wait, because RFC will let us know when he explains the battle and sums up the captured materiel etc.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart.

There is one assumption here that bothers me a bit. That is that we can really know what Kaitswryth has by way of rifles and artillery. To be sure we can come up with a pretty good guess for what he had tight after he was forced back into Cliff Peak. And we know something about what he has gotten since. We also know that the MHOG is being prioritized.

But how much replenishment might he have received off stage? It is not as though we get to inventory what Kaitswryth has on hand. He could have received a substantial number of rifles, for example and they would only turn up as a rounding error in Duchairn's books.

Don

So far in the Safehold books, the Seijin has done primarily two things. The first has been to provide security for and advice to the dynasty. For Merlin that has been primarily Cayleb, although there has been occasion where he has gone with Sharleyan instead. In fact there was one time when he took a trip with Archbishop Mikael to Corisande. The second has been intelligence which basically monitoring the feed on the snarcs and seeing to it that the info gets into the proper hands, especially at critical moments.

In addition to that there has been the occasional covert mission such as getting Nynian out of Zion and keeping Daivyn and Irys alive and getting them out of Delferak.

I don't see it being different for Nimue. Her basic security task is to see to the security of Irys and Daivyn. At this point, they are critical as glue binding Corisande to the Empire. The actual level of threat is diminishing, but still there. But there is also the intel function. While Irys can monitor the feed, she has no way of getting critical info into the hands of people who can act upon it. As a known Seijin who has established her credentials, Nimue can. And while I like the overall direction things have been going in Corisande, that situation is going to require special attention from the snaecs for some time to come.

I see no reason at all why Nimue can't also do the special op that takes her away from Corisande just like Merlin has. But on the other hand, it makes real good sense to have her "home base" in Manchyr with Irys and Daivyn just like Merlin's is with Cayleb and Sharleyan.

Don

n7axw wrote:
[snip]

In addition to that there has been the occasional covert mission such as getting Nynian out of Zion and keeping Daivyn and Irys alive and getting them out of Delferak.

[snip]

I've never been clear on precisely how far Merlin was involved in that, in terms of who did what.

My understanding was that Nynian was beyond doubt the prime mover in getting her own people to safety, and I'm 98% confident that it was her organisation that set up the route along which Archbishop Cahnyr escaped. I'm also pretty sure that she was responsible for the mechanics of the escapes. I think Merlin may well have done more in arranging the later stages of the escapes, though – things like shipping, say – and his visit to Nynian was one of the main factors in setting the ball rolling.

What I'm not clear about is what happened in the middle, where the two operations touched. I don't know where the list of Nynian's people stopped, and the others started. Did Merlin "piggy-back" on Nynian's route by adding more people, or even more wagons amd so on? He must have had an input, but I don't know what.

But I don't suppose it matters anyway.

chrisd wrote:Would it be possible do you think to configure a SNARC as a "messenger Wyvern" which could swoop down to a ship with a VITAL message and fly off again and disappear over the horizon?
So that everyone can see the message being delivered, even as they wonder how the "Wyvern" could find them
(Hide it in full view)
This would have to be used very carefully

Is it possible in the strictly technical sense? Sure. But wyverns don't work like that. Messenger wyverns return to their home roost in order to deliver their messages, and they're only one way. They can't home in on a "roost" which could be anywhere in the world. You could use wyverns to deliver messages from the ship to a city, but not the other way around.

Peter2 wrote:

n7axw wrote:
[snip]

In addition to that there has been the occasional covert mission such as getting Nynian out of Zion and keeping Daivyn and Irys alive and getting them out of Delferak.

[snip]

I've never been clear on precisely how far Merlin was involved in that, in terms of who did what.

My understanding was that Nynian was beyond doubt the prime mover in getting her own people to safety, and I'm 98% confident that it was her organisation that set up the route along which Archbishop Cahnyr escaped. I'm also pretty sure that she was responsible for the mechanics of the escapes. I think Merlin may well have done more in arranging the later stages of the escapes, though – things like shipping, say – and his visit to Nynian was one of the main factors in setting the ball rolling.

What I'm not clear about is what happened in the middle, where the two operations touched. I don't know where the list of Nynian's people stopped, and the others started. Did Merlin "piggy-back" on Nynian's route by adding more people, or even more wagons amd so on? He must have had an input, but I don't know what.

But I don't suppose it matters anyway.

I think you are unclear for good reason. None of that stuff is clear from the text. I've wondered whether Merlin's mission was even necessary. Nynian had her act together before he got to Zion. All we can really say is that it seemed necessary from his perspective in Chisholm.

Don

I think that that was indeed the situation. Nynian was primed and ready, and I'm almost certain that she was only waiting for the Inquisition to finally move against the Circle before she pulled out.

Ahbraim's contribution to the operation was pretty much limited to providing decent weather forecasts, but he had no way to know that beforehand since not even Adorai had a clue just how many strings Nynian has to her bows. If fact, I doubt she even knows for sure how many bows the woman has

n7axw wrote:

Peter2 wrote:I've never been clear on precisely how far Merlin was involved in that, in terms of who did what.

My understanding was that Nynian was beyond doubt the prime mover in getting her own people to safety, and I'm 98% confident that it was her organisation that set up the route along which Archbishop Cahnyr escaped. I'm also pretty sure that she was responsible for the mechanics of the escapes. I think Merlin may well have done more in arranging the later stages of the escapes, though – things like shipping, say – and his visit to Nynian was one of the main factors in setting the ball rolling.

What I'm not clear about is what happened in the middle, where the two operations touched. I don't know where the list of Nynian's people stopped, and the others started. Did Merlin "piggy-back" on Nynian's route by adding more people, or even more wagons amd so on? He must have had an input, but I don't know what.

But I don't suppose it matters anyway.

I think you are unclear for good reason. None of that stuff is clear from the text. I've wondered whether Merlin's mission was even necessary. Nynian had her act together before he got to Zion. All we can really say is that it seemed necessary from his perspective in Chisholm.

Don

Duckk wrote:

chrisd wrote:Would it be possible do you think to configure a SNARC as a "messenger Wyvern" which could swoop down to a ship with a VITAL message and fly off again and disappear over the horizon?
So that everyone can see the message being delivered, even as they wonder how the "Wyvern" could find them
(Hide it in full view)
This would have to be used very carefully

Is it possible in the strictly technical sense? Sure. But wyverns don't work like that. Messenger wyverns return to their home roost in order to deliver their messages, and they're only one way. They can't home in on a "roost" which could be anywhere in the world. You could use wyverns to deliver messages from the ship to a city, but not the other way around.

I appreciate that about a "normal" Wyvern, but my point was that for a "dire emergency" it would be "Miraculous" for a wyvern to appear but everyone would see it happen and the message would be delivered in plain view.

Hi Anwi,

I thought I had made it clear I had no objection to the proffered plan, but if anything came up to change them, Symkyn has the power to take Kaitswyrth himself.

Where did I suggest Kaitswyrth was even considering, let alone going to retreat in the middle of, or even late winter [March-April]?

But given your concern about Kaitswyrth not being able to retreat during winter [ie on an organized basis], how do scattered broken troops retreat 100 miles to Aivahnstyn, their nearest succor, during winter [or very early spring] with little or no food or proper winter/wet clothes, NTM any proper organization or leadership?

Again, I propose Symkyn attacks spots both north and south of the river, so his dragoons have only 15 miles to cover to cut any retreat, ie a matter of 2-3 hours, while the reinforcing infantry following them takes only 4-5.

While many AoG soldiers on the southern flank may run into the swamp to hide, they won't be a problem after a 5-10 days without food or shelter, the same for most fleeing west; if they don't surrender, they will starve or die of exposure long before they get to Aivahnstyn.

That's why I think Symkyn could take Kaitswyrth's complete army all by himself if he had to.

L

anwi wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi all,

Maybe some of us need to be getting back to the gist of the snippet.

I find it curious that Kaitswyrth, having lost ~2/3 of his rifles to DE [19,000] would even try to hold a line [SNIP]

So given his overwhelming artillery and mortars, Symkyn could attack Kaitswyrth and destroy him without waiting for DE and EHM,
[SNIP]
I think that's an entirely possible plan or scenario but feel free to disagree.
Granted that steals the spotlight from BGV, but is that such a bad thing?
Is the timing, waiting for the MHoG to split N&S, rather than form a army group center that seems too big for Symkyn as well, that critical?

On the first issue: Kaitswyrth would be executed if he decided to retreat not being under attack. That should be a strong incentive, putting aside the logistical nightmare a retreat would be for him in the winter weather and his underestimation of what is coming for him.

As to Symkyn attacking on his own: I agree that he could probably force the retreat of Kaitswyrth, even at current weather conditions. What I'd be very sceptical about would be his ability to utterly destroy Kaitswyrth's troops and - given the losses to Symkyn's units and again the weather - sustain a quick advance up the Daivyn River into Westmarch.
Waiting for his substantial reinforcements and better weather for quick strategic movement therefore makes a lot of sense. With DE and EHM joining into the attack, they can probably envelope Kaitswyrth and destroy his units quickly. Then, they advance up the Daivyn and form the second arm of the strategic pincer movement on the CoGA troops. The first arm is of course BGV, who'll likely unplug the Sylvahn Gap. All that doesn't bode well for the advancing MHoG...
So, I find the strategic approach as outlined to us sensible.

Hi ChrisD,

And Duckk's was that what you want is impossible for wyverns in the first place, since it is beyond wyverns capabilities, so it can't and will never happen.

How would a wyvern know which ship, let alone where to find it across the whole world?

Granted you want a way to communicate with ships at sea, but even calling it miraculous doesn't adequately explain it given such a planet steeped in religious proscriptions.

Publicly, Merlin is carefully following the primary seijin stories while avoiding the more sensational, or inventing entirely new capabilities that could be accused of demon like powers.

So also magic or 'miraculous wyverns' are simply impossible and thus off the table.

L

chrisd wrote:

Duckk wrote:*quote="chrisd"*Would it be possible do you think to configure a SNARC as a "messenger Wyvern" which could swoop down to a ship with a VITAL message and fly off again and disappear over the horizon?
So that everyone can see the message being delivered, even as they wonder how the "Wyvern" could find them
(Hide it in full view)
This would have to be used very carefully*quote*

Is it possible in the strictly technical sense? Sure. But wyverns don't work like that. Messenger wyverns return to their home roost in order to deliver their messages, and they're only one way. They can't home in on a "roost" which could be anywhere in the world. You could use wyverns to deliver messages from the ship to a city, but not the other way around.

I appreciate that about a "normal" Wyvern, but my point was that for a "dire emergency" it would be "Miraculous" for a wyvern to appear but everyone would see it happen and the message would be delivered in plain view.