Hi JeffEngel,
I don't believe I even hinted that I expected that by not winning or effectively losing the first and only jihad, ie losing, that they would all be exterminated, nor that the even Siddarmark's understandable revenge ever intended to go that far, especially when just the nominal TL's on the rest of Haven alone outnumber the republic's pre-SoS population by four to one; thus wiping them all out seems out of character for our heroes.
I thought I made it rather obvious that the overwhelming majority of TL's survived the war; because the allies' blood lust is relatively very limited after all, NTM they're far smarter than that; and wouldn't change their minds, despite the incredible world-turned-upside-down they now face, but if you had doubts let me dispel them.
First of all, I thought it was plain that even if the alliance had plans to lay the rest of Haven waste in retaliation, which they don't of course, that almost all of the population would be out of the way of the allied armies; in part because the allied armies would be doing their best to avoid the TL population centers including cities, except for Zion, wherever and whenever they could.
Thus most TL's would remain alive and still convinced of the heretic's guilt, regardless of whatever attempts Rhobair made to correct the record [how soon after he accepted the allied terms before some inquisitor killed him?], and prey to whoever screamed the temple was betrayed by the corrupt vicarate the loudest?
I should clarify that by 'national churches', I meant that the CoGA would fracture into churches more identifiable by their primary nationality than any particular doctrine or claim on Zion and the temple [which would mainly mirror each other], though they'll certainly be there at the temple, seeking to disrupt things as soon as they have a realistic plan to route the allies and win the unfinished [to them] jihad.
Of course that's not going to happen.
Just as Sherman destroyed slavery many miles from where he actually marched, the serfs of the BS and eastern KotTL are going to know the allies policies and expect protection NTM support; so yes I expect considerable border changes so the republic has direct land access to the temple via land where the allies and their policies are popular, NTM no apparent military threat to that land bridge for some years to come given how all the other continental powers have been humbled if not shattered.
As for reformists, by the time the allies reach the temple this fall, Duchairn may be seen by most TL's if not the surviving inquisitors, as a reformist when he may be just trying to preserve what he can at that point.
PeterZ and I among others have discussed this nexus over month's in the last couple of years and a few different threads as I recall, whether the temple remains as a central authority of the CoGA or it shifts to more nationalistic is one of those unresolved questions that waits in patience for RFC.
To be the victory you say the allies need will require dictating it in Zion, on the steps of if not in the temple, as anything reached on the battlefield will be renounced if not outright ignored for dealing with heretics etc.
Hence somebody has to get to Zion to do the dictating; BGV is the closest in terms of time and place by this summer; and its only 2-3 5days from Salyk in Spinefish Bay to the Zion tidal river and thus the temple, NTM he's already equipped to stay the winter
, or however long it takes to ensure the allies accomplish their current 'permanent peace' terms, including recognition and protection of pilgrims etc [I've previously suggested reformists would alternate with the TL's choirs etc].
The reason I suggested some Siddarmarkians might not survive the revelation is because sooner or later they will lose some candidates, especially since the law of averages being what it is, so feel free to suggest some who might fit that category from either the imperial college or political etc.
However I suspect that the right Siddarmarkians will survive, if I'm understanding their comments correctly.
Cayleb needs more 'seasoned' wise counsel that he respects, since he's been losing patience with the brethren of St Zherneau, NTM if something happened to Maikel, and I don't know who else fits the bill.
L
[quote="JeffEngel"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi JeffEngel,
First let me congratulate you.
I didn't realise you were only a week from your first anniversary and already well past a thousand (almost 4 posts a day), well ahead of most posters; so is your goal to reach 2000 in less than 6 month's or even faster?
[/quote]I just gotta post, I haven't got time for goals!!
[quote]
Secondly, given what we know, I don't think your third option is going to work on Safehold.
[/quote]No? What else do you expect Temple Loyalists to do eventually? Either they win outright and it stays that way; they are all exterminated; they lose and all change their minds; or they lose and don't all change their minds.
I don't expect them to win outright. I don't expect them all to be exterminated - that's the point of noting a cap on Allied bloodthirst. I don't expect them to lose and all change their minds right then - people don't tend to work like that. That leaves losing and changing their minds over time - or renewing the war and looping back to the beginning of this decision tree.
We're expecting an end to this war and then subsequent wars down the road. We've got to suppose this war will end on pretty good terms for Charis and Siddarmark - likely about as good as they can expect without so much more fighting it risks their victories or defeats their purposes. It's got to be a victory good enough to take as a stopping point. I'd peg that as security for Siddarmark, Charis, and any other nation out from under the Temple, with a treaty that treats the Church of Charis as a legitimate entity.
The war also needs to accomplish drastically reducing the power of the Inquisition and authority of the Church, else security isn't accomplished. Frankly though, I don't think that's something you can accomplish with force of arms directly without a whole lot more occupation and violence than anyone on the Allied side cares to contemplate. (Well - other than some people who saw too much bitter guerrilla warfare too close for too long.) But it can be accomplished by that treaty setting a precedent for national churches, and it can be helped along even more effectively by a chastened, reformed, and nearly or actually bankrupt CoGA.
That's my expectation for an end to this war: a reduced, troubled CoGA, including Reformists working out a theology on the fly and conservatives hankering after power and authority they cannot afford and cannot demand; national churches in Charis and Siddarmark at least; some but not much adjustment of pre-Sword national borders but a whole lot of adjustment of power relations; nations with a whole lot of vulnerability to internal upset, particularly Harchong; and nominally Temple Loyal nations asserting more effective control over the Church in their territory than would have been thinkable before all this.
[quote]By the way, How soon do you figure before the Lord Protector and other top Siddarmarkians are inducted into the inner circle?
Of course they may very well lose some of them this time.
L[/quote]
Yes. And that's a good reason to put it off.
The knowledge does need spreading, just so the burden of preparing [i]everyone[/i] to know can be spread. But I'm not sure how far the need to know goes in Siddarmark's ruling elite.
The time Cayleb has had with Stohnair - the infamous all-nighters - may make a lot of difference in evaluating him as a candidate for the Inner Circle. I'd like to see Zhasyn Cahnyr spend time with Maikel Staynair for working out a good relationship there, so that Cahnyr can be considered. If he takes it in stride, he would be the best argument for everyone else in Siddarmark that this story isn't a pack of Shan-wei's lies. But that contact may not be practical. By contrast, Nynian/Aivah/She Who Is Every Third Woman On Safehold [i]does[/i] know Cahynr well and may be the best point person for his candidacy.[/quote]
