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HFQ Official Snippet #28

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by JRM   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 2:05 am

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Louis R wrote:I'm not the slightest bit confused. Never have been, don't see any reason to start now.

Everything done to improve the quality of the Host was done _using_the_excuse_ that they were bottlenecked.

WHY were they in that bottleneck in the first place, when they could have been rerouted 6 weeks earlier, _before_ anyone had a clue that they _needed_ to be trained and re-equipped?

You don't call 1.5 million men forward because you don't think your own army is going to do a good enough job of raping and murdering your defeated enemies. Not when you have to a) feed them and b) discourage them from raping and murdering your undefeated allies, at any rate. You bring them in to commit industrial-scale mayhem on the battlefield, and they're not going to do a lot of that twiddling their thumbs a thousand miles behind the front. So if the planned route becomes infeasible and you have an alternate that is even just acceptable you at least think about using it. If it's actually a good route, it's a no-brainer - you send those 1.5 megamen down it and adjust the rest of your plans accordingly. Hell, as far as that goes, neither Duchairn nor Maigwair are idiots [even if Maigwair does play one on TV occasionally], so it would have been immediately - as in last winter, when the invasion of Siddarmark was being planned - obvious to them that moving and supplying the entire MHOGATA _and_ the AoG over one line of communication is less than optimal when there's at least one good parallel route. They certainly don't give a hoot about the Desnairians' sensibilities, and it was probably obvious from the beginning that they would be 4 months late to the party anyway, so what reason is there not to send the Host, or a good part of it, towards Dairnyth from the get-go?



Hi Louis,

In July, MTAT:

They made a side excursion far enough up the Sair to cripple the northern end of the Sair-Selkyr Canal, as well, and they destroyed every lock on the Tarikah River between East Wing Lake and the Hildermoss.” He shook his head. “The entire northern lobe of our logistic system’s been severed. Everything we were sending up the Holy Langhorne can’t go any farther than Lake City by water until we get the locks repaired, and that means we have two hundred thousand men we can no longer properly supply, most of them in territory where the crops either weren’t planted at all this year or went in late. And that’s not counting the loyal militia who’ve joined up with them, which adds about fifty percent to their own troop strength … and the mouths we have to feed. Without those supply lines, the best they’re going to be able to do is hold their positions. Even the Dohlarans will find themselves in the same situation, because we’re going to have to commandeer their supply route up the Fairmyn River and the Charayan Canal just to keep Kaitswyrth’s troops fed.”


We see that there are three canal routes to the front, the first is the Holy Langhorne canal to the Hildermoss river to the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal. The second is the Holy Langhorne canal to the Hildermoss river to the Sair river to the Sair-Selyk canal to the N. Daivyn river. The third is the Fairmyn river to the Charayn canal to the S. Daivyn river. Both of the first two routes are damaged, and in August, Duchairn reveals that they will get the canals fixed as far as Ayaltyn, which is forty miles past Cat Lizard Lake. They needed to repair the locks all the way to Lake Maysn, where the second route diverges from the first route. The conclusion is that only land transportation is available after July, and they only have enough capability to transport food to Wyrshym. Supplies for Kaitswyrth will have to be re-routed to the third route, and that will impact the operation of the Dohlarans.

The bottle-neck is real, and the MHOG got caught because they were the last to the party. There is no way now to send them to the front without their starving.


In August, LAMA

“Unless you want to simply use them as human shields to soak up the heretics’ fire so our own troops can get close enough to engage the enemy, we’ve got to improve their quality before we commit them to action. And let’s be honest here. Given the way Harchongese serfs are treated back home, expecting them to have anything like your regiments’ discipline is totally unrealistic. If you add that to the sort of casualties they’re likely to take, you’ve got a guaranteed recipe for troops who’re going to be almost as destructive to Mother Church’s loyal sons and daughters— especially her daughters— as to the heretics.” The two vicars’ eyes met across the table, and Duchairn shrugged. “Since we can’t move them up and feed them anyway, this is our one opportunity to give them the training— and the discipline— that might actually make them effective soldiers and not Shan-wei’s own scourge upon the Faithful as well as the apostate. I’ll come up with the food, the lumber and nails and tools to build their barracks, and some way to provide them with at least some rifles instead of arbalests, bows, and pikes.

James
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 2:22 am

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Hi Don,

Roymark and Brahnselyk were taken by EHM's men, though we don't know what brigades, and certainly not Hanth's; he was hundreds of miles away.

L


n7axw wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

The figures are a little murky because the figures RFC has used have changed from MTaT to LaMA, etc.

Hanth started with some 7500 men, 2/3 sailors in MTaT, but was down to less than 5,000 in LaMA [without any explanation], while Sumyrs had some 5,000 men, the better half of the depleted starved 4-5 regiments of the garrison, while in LaMA he has 7200 men in the dispatch Hanth received, and Fyguera had recruited back up to 7800, which isn't 4-5 full regiments, but totals 20,000 without counting the 2000 ICN gunners or deleting the detachments watching the narrows.

He received the 4th Brigade last November, but it lost a a couple of battalions [infantry and scout snipers] NTM half a 4" artillery battalion for around 2000 casualties from 9-10,000 men for 8200 men; a combined total of 28,200 men; though the textev states over 30,000 men; for which the garrisoning of Thesmar should have required at least 10,000 men when Hanth marched out in the spring, for something close to 20,000.

Hope that helps explain my figuring.

L



Ok. But you still are not counting that detachment from Roymark that knocked out the Cheryk garrison. Depending on how big that force is, I could visualize Hanth with as many as 50,000 men.

Or am I wrong? :?:

Don
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Thrandir   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 7:58 am

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Thanks RFC for the snippet.

Nice to be back online after my PC gave up the ghost :lol:
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Keith_w   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:02 am

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McGuiness wrote:Cahnyr is as much a mascot and symbol of God's approval as anything else to the Siddarmarkan troops, as well as being one of the two decent archbishops of the CoGA on the planet who are still alive, (Staynair was the other) so if he's going to ride 300 miles in the winter, he's going to get a full military briefing for his troubles


Thanks for that amazingly long post McGuiness.

I dislike to nitpicking, but I would like to point out that Cahnyr was the only "decent" surviving Archbishop of the CoGA that we know of. Staynair was the Bishop of Tellesburg before his elevation. He was also not the only reformist bishop, as witnessed by the number of bishops who joined the Church of Charis from Charis and from the other ICA lands.
--
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by JeffEngel   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:33 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos for an excellent post!

My main quibble is that while Siddarmark certainly wouldn't want the nuisance of being responsible for the Border States and all their obvious problems, it is no longer bound by the temple's restrictions on its military, so the BS will obviously need to accommodate to the new power equation especially post-war and the republic's new motto "Never Again", because the RoS is going to come out of this war far more powerful than ever before and the rest of Haven and Howard had better realise that real soon.

The Republic may only want the power to fully defend itself in the future, but its not operating in a vacuum.
Oh, I don't doubt that the Border States will be accommodating themselves to the continent's new dominant power, however bloodied, tired, and distracted it may be. I just don't think it's going to be on a model of annexation. Changing into republics is a possibility, but I'd peg those odds as somewhat worse than even.

Various Border States will go their own ways - nothing's going to force them all to one model. And if one of them is obnoxious enough and on the Siddarmark border directly, annexing it may happen just to be done with it and show the others what could happen to them. It worked for Rome.

I do suppose generally liberalizing themselves will be common - either to curry favor with Siddarmark directly, or because the rulers who emerge are those who are sympathetic to Siddarmark's way of doing things.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by anwi   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 11:00 am

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JeffEngel wrote:Oh, I don't doubt that the Border States will be accommodating themselves to the continent's new dominant power, however bloodied, tired, and distracted it may be. I just don't think it's going to be on a model of annexation. Changing into republics is a possibility, but I'd peg those odds as somewhat worse than even.


Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves, not to mention the esteemed author? Just wondering...
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by JeffEngel   » Sun Aug 02, 2015 11:12 am

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anwi wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:Oh, I don't doubt that the Border States will be accommodating themselves to the continent's new dominant power, however bloodied, tired, and distracted it may be. I just don't think it's going to be on a model of annexation. Changing into republics is a possibility, but I'd peg those odds as somewhat worse than even.


Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves, not to mention the esteemed author? Just wondering...

It's a distant view, certainly, and is based on projecting based on current trends without provision for curveballs the esteemed author is winding up. Take it in that spirit.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 6:45 pm

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Hi JeffEngel,

Given the expectation the MHoG will be effectively defeated by this fall, the BS, NTM Dohlar, may have to begin making some accommodations with the even more powerful republic by winter since the Go4 will no longer be able to protect [ie intimidate] them.

We have got to get a Go4 meeting at that time, it will be intensely delicious as they come to grips with how everything since they ordered Charis destroyed has failed.

Quite aside from the capture of most if not all those rifles; ~550,000 flintlocks and ~90,000 St. Kylman's, the re-equipping of ~26 RSA divisions as ~350,000 M96's replace the Mahndrayns the ICA was issued just last June means the RSA could have over 1.3 million rifles by next winter without adding Siddarmark's own production contribution.

Transportation and equipping the new ICA divisions if not corps will delay the RSA from getting its own M96's until 898, but how many will they need then, when BGV is steaming up the Zion River to the temple and the rest of the best of the ICA and RSA are closing in from the south and east?

Given all the excitement some posters have made over the MHoG having less than half that many, one must wonder what heights of power and influence they expect the republic to reach post war with its far fewer and weaker neighbors.

L


JeffEngel wrote:
anwi wrote:*quote="JeffEngel"*Oh, I don't doubt that the Border States will be accommodating themselves to the continent's new dominant power, however bloodied, tired, and distracted it may be. I just don't think it's going to be on a model of annexation. Changing into republics is a possibility, but I'd peg those odds as somewhat worse than even. *quote*

Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves, not to mention the esteemed author? Just wondering...

It's a distant view, certainly, and is based on projecting based on current trends without provision for curveballs the esteemed author is winding up. Take it in that spirit.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by Peter2   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 1:31 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

Given the expectation the MHoG will be effectively defeated by this fall, the BS, NTM Dohlar, may have to begin making some accommodations with the even more powerful republic by winter since the Go4 will no longer be able to protect [ie intimidate] them.

We have got to get a Go4 meeting at that time, it will be intensely delicious as they come to grips with how everything since they ordered Charis destroyed has failed.



Yes indeed. I am so looking forward to reading RFC's fly-on-the-wall report of that meeting. :twisted: I wonder if there is any chance of thoughts crossing Clyntahn's mind to the effect that either (a) it might have been a good idea to leave Charis well alone (i.e. take the money and continue with his repellent lifestyle) or (b) having burnt his fingers on Charis, to leave Siddarmark severely alone? Almost certainly not, but I can always hope that one or other of the 3 of the Go4 tells him that. It would be delicious if Magwair were to do it. If Clyntahn reacts in his usual bull-headed way, that might just pit the army against the Inquisition . . .

Well, I can always dream! :D
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #28
Post by n7axw   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:22 pm

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Peter2 wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

Given the expectation the MHoG will be effectively defeated by this fall, the BS, NTM Dohlar, may have to begin making some accommodations with the even more powerful republic by winter since the Go4 will no longer be able to protect [ie intimidate] them.

We have got to get a Go4 meeting at that time, it will be intensely delicious as they come to grips with how everything since they ordered Charis destroyed has failed.



Yes indeed. I am so looking forward to reading RFC's fly-on-the-wall report of that meeting. :twisted: I wonder if there is any chance of thoughts crossing Clyntahn's mind to the effect that either (a) it might have been a good idea to leave Charis well alone (i.e. take the money and continue with his repellent lifestyle) or (b) having burnt his fingers on Charis, to leave Siddarmark severely alone? Almost certainly not, but I can always hope that one or other of the 3 of the Go4 tells him that. It would be delicious if Magwair were to do it. If Clyntahn reacts in his usual bull-headed way, that might just pit the army against the Inquisition . . .

Well, I can always dream! :D


Actually, I don't think your dreaming is so far off target. Magwair and the AOG have to be getting tired of such things as faulty intel, withheld intel, orders passed outside of the chain of command and all sorts of other behavior that that really undermines the Jihad. In fact I bet some of the more rational inquisitors have been observing the same thing and could start wondering if it isn't time for Clyntahn to go.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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