Merlin was careless?

Hi PeterZ,

I suspect that is one of the things Rhobair will be willing to give up when the time comes.

I believe you suggested some time ago that he'd renounce the jihad [it was mostly Clyntahn's fault, after all], including to offer to recognise all the organised reformists; ie toleration and protection of the CoC and Church of Siddarmark etc, NTM all reformist pilgrims.

Which will be unacceptable to far too many TL's, of course.

We could see the 'moderates' like Rhobair being purged, as in pre-WW2 Japan, but the conflict between various expected 'national' churches may mitigate this somewhat, since some might see such as an act of war against them.

Interesting time people, interesting times.

L

PeterZ wrote:I agree with you regarding Siddermark. I disagree that the CoGA will stop trying to work out a reunification, peacefully at first and increasingly with the threat of force. Bottom line is that a Cold War eventually develop because the CoGA won't give up the ghost on the idea of world domination under their authority.

JeffEngel wrote:*quote="PeterZ"*I work under the assumption that many Reformists within the Empire and in Siddermark still cherish a desire to reform and reconstitute the Church rather than shatter it forever. An insightful few know better. They know that a true rapprochement will never happen. If Duchairn and Magwair offer an opportunity to reform the CoGA peacefully, that opportunity might well be taken. The Reformist will resist reunification and the Loyalists will resist giving up their centralized authority, but elements on both sides will work towards a suitable compromise. At one point everyone will realize no meaningful compromise will be reached and hostilities will resume or both sides will be sick to death of a hot war and settle for a cold war.*quote*
There's a third option. It's one that settles wars often enough, historically. At least one side accepts that living without all they want is better than continued fighting and lets the next generations grow to accept it - grudging peace instead of cold war.

That does likely favor the national churches over a restored world church in this case. I don't see Siddarmark as all that enthused about renewing a war like this if it can be ended in a way that offers a reasonable assurance of safety for its people, its national integrity, and its own Reformist clergy.

SWM wrote:

Ramhawkfan wrote:I know a lot of people think there will be some sort of settlement of the war. In real life, I might agree with you. The one thing we need to remember though, is that this is fiction, and that the whole point and direction of the series is to get mankind back into space and ready to fight the Gbaba. Not to mention the fact that in context of the story, Merlin, and the inner circle, really, really hate the COGA, and I don't see them stopping till the church , and especially the inquisition, is destroyed. Just my 2 cents worth.

Perhaps, except that we know there will be further wars before Safehold gets back to space. This war is not the end of the story.

I agree that there will be further wars, I just don't think this one will end till the inquisition is toast, and at the least, a loosening of the proscriptions.

Hi Don,

Quite right and good points as always.

Perhaps if the rest of the Go4 quietly approached Rayno [possibly with a note the same way Hauwerd Wylsynn did with Rhobair] about Clyntahn's increasing erratic behavior threatening the jihad and the temple's survival, they might make a deal with him to help remove Zhaspahr, look what happened to Mussolini.

Once the MHoG is beaten, there will be no holds barred by the allies; they will advance to the temple, insisting on the right to enter, etc.

I've previously suggested that Nahrmahn might have Owl work up sensors the temple might not recognise as a threat because the tech is a century or two out of date, but still quite effective for the inner circle's needs.

I expect the full details of the circle and Nynian's work besides the inquisition's current crimes to be publicly dumped and published for all to see, including Owl's broadsheets till all on the continents are almost sick of all the gory details.

Given the vast majority of the BS and KotTL serfs stay, the RoS's land access to Zion and the temple may become virtually impregnable.

Given how much the continental leasers have underestimated Charis and the RoS so far, further now fatal mistakes are only to be expected.

L

n7axw wrote:Magwair might work against Clyntahn because Clyntahn's erratic behavior is not only making him dangerous to be around, but is undermining the Jihad. He would probably like a more predictable environment to do his job than what he has now...

I disagree with you guys on Siddarmark. After what they've been through, it's "The Pikes of Kolstyr" time. The Protector is going to be even harder to convince than Cayleb...and Cayleb is royally p.o.ed.

You guys seem to me to be trying to impose rational order on the situation. It is not a time of rationality any more than than it was in 1945 when the Russians overran Berlin. It's a time when passion rules.

Don

Hi Isilith,

Yup, this echoes threads a while back that BGV could take Zion this summer or fall, while able to stay through the winter quasi-comfortably , and while north Harchong would understandably object to Rhobair's likely terms they wouldn't be able to do anything until the following summer, needing the spring to get organized etc when they were smacked down by the allies in an absurdly easy fashion that compelled them to accept the fiat accompli until they could respond in kind, creating a struggle between those who know they can't win until they improve the weapons and those who can't wait and trust god to make up the difference.

The smart patient ones may do what the Viet Minh did, let the allies kill off all the stupid ones who think god and sheer numbers can overwhelm the allies.

Of course by then the freed Harchong ex serfs may be making some other noise the Harchong nobility won't like.

L

Isilith wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:*quote="n7axw"*Magwair might work against Clyntahn because Clyntahn's erratic behavior is not only making him dangerous to be around, but is undermining the Jihad. He would probably like a more predictable environment to do his job than what he has now...

I'm sure he'd like one. I don't think he's going to get one without unacceptable risks.*quote*

I disagree with you guys on Siddarmark. After what they've been through, it's "The Pikes of Kolstyr" time. The Protector is going to be even harder to convince than Cayleb...and Cayleb is royally p.o.ed.

You guys seem to me to be trying to impose rational order on the situation. It is not a time of rationality any more than than it was in 1945 when the Russians overran Berlin. It's a time when passion rules.

Don

War-weariness is a passion too. Do you really think every pike- and rifle-man in Siddarmark is looking forward to bathing in Lake Pei and washing off a continent's worth of blood when he gets there?

I doubt those riflemen or the Lord Protector are interested in leaving a Church of God Awaiting that is able to pull another Sword of Schueler on them, but you really can be safe enough without (e.g.) leaving the Border States, Temple Lands, and Harchong too a wasteland.

Some sort of Church based on the Temple is likely to remain if it comes down to settling things by force of arms and the allies aren't willing or able to kill every Temple Loyalist in West Haven. If it comes to living with a reduced Church that's been made to recognize the existence and legitimacy of others - or one that's been made to recognize control of Church resources and activities within a state by the authorities within that state - or carrying on a war of conquest all the way through Harchong, I do certainly think that Cayleb and Stohnair will take the peace. (I don't think they're going to take the peace with a Church that's perfectly ready and theologically prepared to go right back to war - PeterZ may, I can't say.)[/quote]

That's just it, there is no way that the EoC and Republic end this war with the Go4 in charge, or a Temple led church that fully believes it can impose its will on the rest of the world.

That doesn't involve invading Harchong, no idea why you even proposed that. All that the allies have to do is break the Temple Lands and remove the current leadership. The rest of the hard liners will internally fracture at that point, as they scramble for bits of power and control.[/quote]

Hi Don,

Amen, Corps-brother!

L

n7axw wrote:I suppose war weariness is a passion. But it won't prevent the alliance from finishing the job... and that goes especially for Siddarmark. War weariness plagued the Union, but that did not prevent Sherman from making his march from Atlanta to the sea. Nor did it prevent the Russians from marching on Berlin. Or the allies from closing in on Paris in 1815.

There is a difference between a war with limited objectives over such things as trade routes or border adjustments and a war of survival. The war against the COGA is a war for survival. It will be fought right down to the moment where the Temple's ability to resist is crushed and and the G-4 is gone.

Don

Hi Ramhawkfan,

If I haven't welcomed you to the forum before, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

Yup, given where the story has to go, I'll back your two cents with a dime or a dollar, as you please.

But I think those questioning how soon the allies reach the temple just have a different timeline.

Besides breaking the CoGA's presumption of superior authority as a given, Maikel told Irys that the CoC would destroy the coercive power of the Inquisition forever, which whoever's left in Zion is going to have to accept as part of the allies' terms, which aside from some Clyntahn supporters won't have too many mourners.

10 weeks, 70 days and counting down...

L

Ramhawkfan wrote:I know a lot of people think there will be some sort of settlement of the war. In real life, I might agree with you. The one thing we need to remember though, is that this is fiction, and that the whole point and direction of the series is to get mankind back into space and ready to fight the Gbaba. Not to mention the fact that in context of the story, Merlin, and the inner circle, really, really hate the COGA, and I don't see them stopping till the church , and especially the inquisition, is destroyed. Just my 2 cents worth.

Hi SWM,

Amen to that too!

L

SWM wrote:

Ramhawkfan wrote:I know a lot of people think there will be some sort of settlement of the war. In real life, I might agree with you. The one thing we need to remember though, is that this is fiction, and that the whole point and direction of the series is to get mankind back into space and ready to fight the Gbaba. Not to mention the fact that in context of the story, Merlin, and the inner circle, really, really hate the COGA, and I don't see them stopping till the church , and especially the inquisition, is destroyed. Just my 2 cents worth.

Perhaps, except that we know there will be further wars before Safehold gets back to space. This war is not the end of the story.

Actually, Lyonheart, I speculated IF Duchairn offered to negotiate a peace after Clyntahn had been suitibly dealt with, Cayleb and Stohnar would accept the offer. Whether Dochairn would talk the rest of the vicarage into accepting anything short of the Reformist's capitulation is less certain.

Hi PeterZ,

And, as I pointed out at the time, the odds of the surviving inquisitors letting him long enough to make any such offer were rather negligible.

L

PeterZ wrote:Actually, Lyonheart, I speculated IF Duchairn offered to negotiate a peace after Clyntahn had been suitibly dealt with, Cayleb and Stohnar would accept the offer. Whether Dochairn would talk the rest of the vicarage into accepting anything short of the Reformist's capitulation is less certain.

lyonheart wrote:Hi JeffEngel,

First let me congratulate you.

I didn't realise you were only a week from your first anniversary and already well past a thousand (almost 4 a day), well ahead of most posters; so is your goal to reach 2000 in less than 6 month's or even faster?

I just gotta post, I haven't got time for goals!!

Secondly, given what we know, I don't think your third option is going to work on Safehold.

No? What else do you expect Temple Loyalists to do eventually? Either they win outright and it stays that way; they are all exterminated; they lose and all change their minds; or they lose and don't all change their minds.

I don't expect them to win outright. I don't expect them all to be exterminated - that's the point of noting a cap on Allied bloodthirst. I don't expect them to lose and all change their minds right then - people don't tend to work like that. That leaves losing and changing their minds over time - or renewing the war and looping back to the beginning of this decision tree.

We're expecting an end to this war and then subsequent wars down the road. We've got to suppose this war will end on pretty good terms for Charis and Siddarmark - likely about as good as they can expect without so much more fighting it risks their victories or defeats their purposes. It's got to be a victory good enough to take as a stopping point. I'd peg that as security for Siddarmark, Charis, and any other nation out from under the Temple, with a treaty that treats the Church of Charis as a legitimate entity.

The war also needs to accomplish drastically reducing the power of the Inquisition and authority of the Church, else security isn't accomplished. Frankly though, I don't think that's something you can accomplish with force of arms directly without a whole lot more occupation and violence than anyone on the Allied side cares to contemplate. (Well - other than some people who saw too much bitter guerrilla warfare too close for too long.) But it can be accomplished by that treaty setting a precedent for national churches, and it can be helped along even more effectively by a chastened, reformed, and nearly or actually bankrupt CoGA.

That's my expectation for an end to this war: a reduced, troubled CoGA, including Reformists working out a theology on the fly and conservatives hankering after power and authority they cannot afford and cannot demand; national churches in Charis and Siddarmark at least; some but not much adjustment of pre-Sword national borders but a whole lot of adjustment of power relations; nations with a whole lot of vulnerability to internal upset, particularly Harchong; and nominally Temple Loyal nations asserting more effective control over the Church in their territory than would have been thinkable before all this.

By the way, How soon do you figure before the Lord Protector and other top Siddarmarkians are inducted into the inner circle?

Of course they may very well lose some of them this time.

L

Yes. And that's a good reason to put it off.

The knowledge does need spreading, just so the burden of preparing everyone to know can be spread. But I'm not sure how far the need to know goes in Siddarmark's ruling elite.

The time Cayleb has had with Stohnair - the infamous all-nighters - may make a lot of difference in evaluating him as a candidate for the Inner Circle. I'd like to see Zhasyn Cahnyr spend time with Maikel Staynair for working out a good relationship there, so that Cahnyr can be considered. If he takes it in stride, he would be the best argument for everyone else in Siddarmark that this story isn't a pack of Shan-wei's lies. But that contact may not be practical. By contrast, Nynian/Aivah/She Who Is Every Third Woman On Safehold does know Cahynr well and may be the best point person for his candidacy.