Merlin was careless?

n7axw wrote:Magwair might work against Clyntahn because Clyntahn's erratic behavior is not only making him dangerous to be around, but is undermining the Jihad. He would probably like a more predictable environment to do his job than what he has now...

I disagree with you guys on Siddarmark. After what they've been through, it's "The Pikes of Kolstyr" time. The Protector is going to be even harder to convince than Cayleb...and Cayleb is royally p.o.ed.

You guys seem to me to be trying to impose rational order on the situation. It is not a time of rationality any more than than it was in 1945 when the Russians overran Berlin. It's a time when passion rules.

Don

^ This! Well said.

n7axw wrote:Magwair might work against Clyntahn because Clyntahn's erratic behavior is not only making him dangerous to be around, but is undermining the Jihad. He would probably like a more predictable environment to do his job than what he has now...

I'm sure he'd like one. I don't think he's going to get one without unacceptable risks.

I disagree with you guys on Siddarmark. After what they've been through, it's "The Pikes of Kolstyr" time. The Protector is going to be even harder to convince than Cayleb...and Cayleb is royally p.o.ed.

You guys seem to me to be trying to impose rational order on the situation. It is not a time of rationality any more than than it was in 1945 when the Russians overran Berlin. It's a time when passion rules.

Don

War-weariness is a passion too. Do you really think every pike- and rifle-man in Siddarmark is looking forward to bathing in Lake Pei and washing off a continent's worth of blood when he gets there?

I doubt those riflemen or the Lord Protector are interested in leaving a Church of God Awaiting that is able to pull another Sword of Schueler on them, but you really can be safe enough without (e.g.) leaving the Border States, Temple Lands, and Harchong too a wasteland.

Some sort of Church based on the Temple is likely to remain if it comes down to settling things by force of arms and the allies aren't willing or able to kill every Temple Loyalist in West Haven. If it comes to living with a reduced Church that's been made to recognize the existence and legitimacy of others - or one that's been made to recognize control of Church resources and activities within a state by the authorities within that state - or carrying on a war of conquest all the way through Harchong, I do certainly think that Cayleb and Stohnair will take the peace. (I don't think they're going to take the peace with a Church that's perfectly ready and theologically prepared to go right back to war - PeterZ may, I can't say.)

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:Magwair might work against Clyntahn because Clyntahn's erratic behavior is not only making him dangerous to be around, but is undermining the Jihad. He would probably like a more predictable environment to do his job than what he has now...

I'm sure he'd like one. I don't think he's going to get one without unacceptable risks.

I disagree with you guys on Siddarmark. After what they've been through, it's "The Pikes of Kolstyr" time. The Protector is going to be even harder to convince than Cayleb...and Cayleb is royally p.o.ed.

You guys seem to me to be trying to impose rational order on the situation. It is not a time of rationality any more than than it was in 1945 when the Russians overran Berlin. It's a time when passion rules.

Don

War-weariness is a passion too. Do you really think every pike- and rifle-man in Siddarmark is looking forward to bathing in Lake Pei and washing off a continent's worth of blood when he gets there?

I doubt those riflemen or the Lord Protector are interested in leaving a Church of God Awaiting that is able to pull another Sword of Schueler on them, but you really can be safe enough without (e.g.) leaving the Border States, Temple Lands, and Harchong too a wasteland.

Some sort of Church based on the Temple is likely to remain if it comes down to settling things by force of arms and the allies aren't willing or able to kill every Temple Loyalist in West Haven. If it comes to living with a reduced Church that's been made to recognize the existence and legitimacy of others - or one that's been made to recognize control of Church resources and activities within a state by the authorities within that state - or carrying on a war of conquest all the way through Harchong, I do certainly think that Cayleb and Stohnair will take the peace. (I don't think they're going to take the peace with a Church that's perfectly ready and theologically prepared to go right back to war - PeterZ may, I can't say.)

That's just it, there is no way that the EoC and Republic end this war with the Go4 in charge, or a Temple led church that fully believes it can impose its will on the rest of the world.

That doesn't involve invading Harchong, no idea why you even proposed that. All that the allies have to do is break the Temple Lands and remove the current leadership. The rest of the hard liners will internally fracture at that point, as they scramble for bits of power and control.

I suppose war weariness is a passion. But it won't prevent the alliance from finishing the job... and that goes especially for Siddarmark. War weariness plagued the Union, but that did not prevent Sherman from making his march from Atlanta to the sea. Nor did it prevent the Russians from marching on Berlin. Or the allies from closing in on Paris in 1815.

There is a difference between a war with limited objectives over such things as trade routes or border adjustments and a war of survival. The war against the COGA is a war for survival. It will be fought right down to the moment where the Temple's ability to resist is crushed and and the G-4 is gone.

Don

I know a lot of people think there will be some sort of settlement of the war. In real life, I might agree with you. The one thing we need to remember though, is that this is fiction, and that the whole point and direction of the series is to get mankind back into space and ready to fight the Gbaba. Not to mention the fact that in context of the story, Merlin, and the inner circle, really, really hate the COGA, and I don't see them stopping till the church , and especially the inquisition, is destroyed. Just my 2 cents worth.

Hi SWM,

You may well be right, and without further posts or textev from RFC we must leave it there.

L

SWM wrote:

lyonheart wrote:While the Royal Guard may have been ordered to keep quiet in cleaning up Duke Tyrian's townhouse NTM the first assassins, don't you think stories about how the bodies were so slashed, indicating the incredible strength the seijin must have, soon leaked out to Tellesberg and the rest of Charis?

So I think it's quite possible that some in Dancer's crew saw signs of a seijin's 'handiwork', certainly the royal/imperial investigators who'd seen its like before and may have wondered then if there were other seijins since Merlin was so far away.

No, not really. I think it is entirely plausible that no one really paid close attention to the state of the bodies. And it is plausible that anyone who did notice anything might shrug and ignore it. After all, this was the queen.

Ramhawkfan wrote:I know a lot of people think there will be some sort of settlement of the war. In real life, I might agree with you. The one thing we need to remember though, is that this is fiction, and that the whole point and direction of the series is to get mankind back into space and ready to fight the Gbaba. Not to mention the fact that in context of the story, Merlin, and the inner circle, really, really hate the COGA, and I don't see them stopping till the church , and especially the inquisition, is destroyed. Just my 2 cents worth.

Perhaps, except that we know there will be further wars before Safehold gets back to space. This war is not the end of the story.

Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos again; because all your excellent points are quite true.

Since RFC puts signs along the way, I'll be curious what proof Allayn has Clyntahn lied to them again, until we find out.

I'd hope Magwair had his own intel network before this, its a bit late to create one, though I expect he's had a good one in Zion for some time.

And as you say, he still agrees with Clyntahn's intentions, but the interference and lies sabotage the jihad, say lead to the MHoG being defeated, ie their last main hope, not just Harless's AoS, I suspect things may change.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:I find myself wondering if the joker in the deck might not turn out to be Magwair. He has been developing into a more sympathetic character lately and he is more aware that Clyntahn has been lying to him. He has to be getting tired of it.

I wonder where this will go next...

Don

I'm sure he's tired of it. I imagine one thing he's doing is cultivating his own intelligence sources and his own routes of communication with his commanders. One may be through Duchairn's logistics clerks - any commander worth a fig is going to be listening to them, many intendents won't be, and one of his likely alternative intelligence sources will be Duchairn's accountants, bailiffs, treasury officials, etc. In effect, all Magwair has to do is tap into Duchairn's net and encourage it to share information with the senior field army officers.

Magwair's getting more confident, more savvy, and less enamored of Clyntahn, but that's a far cry from actually opposing him. Magwair still believes in the jihad and wants to win it. He may not care for Clyntahn's interference, disdain, atrocities, or dishonesty, but their goals are too similar for him to work against Clyntahn for now.

Hi PeterZ,

Your concerns are certainly valid, but from Cahnyr's thoughts in MTaT, the Siddarmark reformists were finding themselves increasingly forced to recognise the CoC's view, partly from sheer survival, and recognition that the CoGA isn't that reformable anymore.

I expect the CoGA to be defeated and forced to recognise and accept the CoC's existence, which of course includes access to the temple, including for CoC pilgrims.

Regardless of what they find under the temple, and how that effects the use of electricity, there are plenty enough TL's who will insist whatever Rhobair and the Go3 survivors say, the CoGA was falsely coerced into making these concessions and they must restore it to its preeminent position, NTM increasing their own power along the way, and this will happen in just a few years, especially if they think they have some equalizers.

Of course the EoC's and RoS's technological lead will be insurmountable by then, NTM their forces will be more than large enough to swat whoever tries anything.

But that won't stop other TL's from trying something when they think they have a technological superiority.

Then there will be the great reveal, which will set off another set of religious wars, probably worse because everyone will know the choices laid bare.

L

PeterZ wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:*quote="n7axw"*I find myself wondering if the joker in the deck might not turn out to be Magwair. He has been developing into a more sympathetic character lately and he is more aware that Clyntahn has been lying to him. He has to be getting tired of it.

I wonder where this will go next...

Don*quote*
I'm sure he's tired of it. I imagine one thing he's doing is cultivating his own intelligence sources and his own routes of communication with his commanders. One may be through Duchairn's logistics clerks - any commander worth a fig is going to be listening to them, many intendents won't be, and one of his likely alternative intelligence sources will be Duchairn's accountants, bailiffs, treasury officials, etc. In effect, all Magwair has to do is tap into Duchairn's net and encourage it to share information with the senior field army officers.

Magwair's getting more confident, more savvy, and less enamored of Clyntahn, but that's a far cry from actually opposing him. Magwair still believes in the jihad and wants to win it. He may not care for Clyntahn's interference, disdain, atrocities, or dishonesty, but their goals are too similar for him to work against Clyntahn for now.

Don's point is still valid. Magwair will very likely be the wildcard for all the points you brought up, Jeff. Assuming the partnership evolves between Duchair's people and Magwair's as you suggested, the conflict might well become more difficult for the allies.

I work under the assumption that many Reformists within the Empire and in Siddermark still cherish a desire to reform and reconstitute the Church rather than shatter it forever. An insightful few know better. They know that a true rapprochement will never happen. If Duchairn and Magwair offer an opportunity to reform the CoGA peacefully, that opportunity might well be taken. The Reformist will resist reunification and the Loyalists will resist giving up their centralized authority, but elements on both sides will work towards a suitable compromise. At one point everyone will realize no meaningful compromise will be reached and hostilities will resume or both sides will be sick to death of a hot war and settle for a cold war.

Hi JeffEngel,

First let me congratulate you.

I didn't realise you were only a week from your first anniversary and already well past a thousand (almost 4 a day), well ahead of most posters; so is your goal to reach 2000 in less than 6 month's or even faster?

Secondly, given what we know, I don't think your third option is going to work on Safehold.

I also don't think the RoS is going to let up anytime soon.

Especially after the concentration camps are liberated, though I don't expect very many survivors, but getting the inquisitor's records will be more important.

I'm pretty sure the republic's new motto is "Never Again".

Thus there will never ever again be such CoGA proscribed limits on the republic's defenses again; and that includes extending its borders, probably including more of the KotTL than the BS immediately.

The rise of national versions of the CoGA has been suggested here before [ ], which will battle each other almost as much as the allied heretics, but the disintegration of the central authority means that overall the time will be less completely threatening in terms of their ultimate survival, than when the CoGA had almost instant obedience from almost everyone, considerably reducing the pressure on their leaders so they can do some effective long term planning.

By the way, How soon do you figure before the Lord Protector and other top Siddarmarkians are inducted into the inner circle?

Of course they may very well lose some of them this time.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I work under the assumption that many Reformists within the Empire and in Siddermark still cherish a desire to reform and reconstitute the Church rather than shatter it forever. An insightful few know better. They know that a true rapprochement will never happen. If Duchairn and Magwair offer an opportunity to reform the CoGA peacefully, that opportunity might well be taken. The Reformist will resist reunification and the Loyalists will resist giving up their centralized authority, but elements on both sides will work towards a suitable compromise. At one point everyone will realize no meaningful compromise will be reached and hostilities will resume or both sides will be sick to death of a hot war and settle for a cold war.

There's a third option. It's one that settles wars often enough, historically. At least one side accepts that living without all they want is better than continued fighting and lets the next generations grow to accept it - grudging peace instead of cold war.

That does likely favor the national churches over a restored world church in this case. I don't see Siddarmark as all that enthused about renewing a war like this if it can be ended in a way that offers a reasonable assurance of safety for its people, its national integrity, and its own Reformist clergy.