HFQ Snippet 27[?] a

Hi Don,

The biggest problem was that the new deal programs didn't work in the first place; not a surprise given how irrational they were, being the pipe dreams of academics and bureaucrats who either didn't care about how they wouldn't work in the real world, or violated the constitution or existing law, as long as they were increasing their own power.

Regarding WW2 spending, unlike a lot of New Deal spending, federal spending actually bought important things like food instead of plowing them under [remember why FDR took away our gold?], weapons, NTM industrial plan such as machine tools and shipyards etc, so the economy expanded rather than contracted.

L

n7axw wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi CaptinJoeHenry,

The US 'great depression' was made worse and much longer by government policies; the term 'recession' being invented by liberal economists to attempt to divert attention away from just how bad the '37 depression was especially when it was because of their stupid nostrums.

*quote*

Yep. The down turn occurred when Roosevelt decided it was time to balance the budget by cutting back on the amount of money the government was pumping into the economy.

Pop quiz question: what was the biggest public works project in American history?

Answer- WW2.

The economy did not fully recover until the war effort was under way.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

The biggest problem was that the new deal programs didn't work in the first place; not a surprise given how irrational they were, being the pipe dreams of academics and bureaucrats who either didn't care about how they wouldn't work in the real world, or violated the constitution or existing law, as long as they were increasing their own power.

Regarding WW2 spending, unlike a lot of New Deal spending, federal spending actually bought important things like food instead of plowing them under [remember why FDR took away our gold?], weapons, NTM industrial plan such as machine tools and shipyards etc, so the economy expanded rather than contracted.

L

n7axw wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi CaptinJoeHenry,

The US 'great depression' was made worse and much longer by government policies; the term 'recession' being invented by liberal economists to attempt to divert attention away from just how bad the '37 depression was especially when it was because of their stupid nostrums.

*quote*

Yep. The down turn occurred when Roosevelt decided it was time to balance the budget by cutting back on the amount of money the government was pumping into the economy.

Pop quiz question: what was the biggest public works project in American history?

Answer- WW2.

The economy did not fully recover until the war effort was under way.

Don

I suspect that we are getting into ideological turf here so this will be my last post on the subject. But I will say this. Both the New Deal programs and the war "worked." What they had in common was that they were both stimulative spending that got money into people's jeans so they could go out and buy the necessities (and maybe a few luxuries) of life.

The reason that the New Deal looks less successful than the war has to do not so much with the programs as with the comparative amount of resourses devoted to them. The New Deal was pretty tentative when you come right down to it. The war was full throttle.

Don

n7axw wrote:
I suspect that we are getting into ideological turf here so this will be my last post on the subject. But I will say this. Both the New Deal programs and the war "worked." What they had in common was that they were both stimulative spending that got money into people's jeans so they could go out and buy the necessities (and maybe a few luxuries) of life.

The reason that the New Deal looks less successful than the war has to do not so much with the programs as with the comparative amount of resourses devoted to them. The New Deal was pretty tentative when you come right down to it. The war was full throttle.

Don

Ideology aside. The big draw back to both WWII and the New Deal was the lack of perceived permanence of both. Sure, people had work, but the concern over the staying power of that stimulus encouraged saving and not reinvesting. After the war there was no competing industry in Europe or elsewhere. There was very little risk in expanding production, because so much worldwide capacity had been bombed to smithereens.

FDR gave confidence that life would go on with his New Deal, but not necessarily a prosperous one as it had been in the past. That was the downside to Keynesian stimulus, by its very nature it is not permanent. WWII pretty much made American industry a monopoly and any fool can make money if acting as a monopoly. It took the better part of a decade for Europe to rebuild enough to be competitive and two decades for Japan.

PeterZ wrote:<SNIP>It took the better part of a decade for Europe to rebuild enough to be competitive and two decades for Japan.

And Japan largely recovered because a U.S. firm (who shall remain nameless) basically handed them the transistor, and their electronics industry took it and ran...

McGuiness wrote:

PeterZ wrote:<SNIP>It took the better part of a decade for Europe to rebuild enough to be competitive and two decades for Japan.

And Japan largely recovered because a U.S. firm (who shall remain nameless) basically handed them the transistor, and their electronics industry took it and ran...

That didn't turn out to be a bad thing. A prosperous and stable Japan has been a good thing for the rest of the world.

Don

n7axw wrote:

McGuiness wrote:And Japan largely recovered because a U.S. firm (who shall remain nameless) basically handed them the transistor, and their electronics industry took it and ran...

That didn't turn out to be a bad thing. A prosperous and stable Japan has been a good thing for the rest of the world.

Don

No it wasn't. Yet, none of what happened to the US and the Earth during that period has a parallel in what the CoGA is going through.

Rhobair has spent all the liquid assets the CoGA owns. He has sold the secondary holdings of the CoGA. He has increased taxes, tithes, and mandated investments in CoGA issued notes of various forms. The effects of these policies is to suck out all the capital out of the private sector that services the needs of all the non-war production. That means production of those products and services has been reduced and prices are rising on what remains. Increased tithes and rising prices means that fewer people are able to purchase what goods are available.

This adds up to hyper inflation waiting to happen. The biggest factor will be how much food will be grown in all the jihadi nations not in a war zone. If the GH and the AoG gets whacked, the Border Kingdoms will be wide open to the Allies. Dollars to donuts the border Kingdom farmers flee and either leave their crops or burn them. However many refugees flee Zion-ward will be additional mouths the Temple Lands have to feed. Lord knows that Harchong won't be able to grow and ship enough food Eastward with the ICN in the Passage and the Gulf.

So once this summer passes, the jihadi economy shrinks further with Howard well and truly severed from Haven AND the Border land producing only resources draining refugees instead of anything economically accretive. Even if these refugees are put to work for room and board building the tools of war, they will still need food, clothing and shelter that is growing ever more expensive as production and transportation of those necessities grow more limited due to a whole host of reasons.

That makes Zion a serious powder keg come winter as masses of refuges slowly starve or not so slowly freeze, news of the concentration camps spread, the reformist successes begin to fray the confidence of the faithful and Owl's and Nynian's efforts to undermine the CoGA position escalate to bring about some serious boiling. No, not the Great depression, the parallels are more like the French Revolution.

PeterZ wrote:
Rhobair has spent all the liquid assets the CoGA owns. He has sold the secondary holdings of the CoGA. He has increased taxes, tithes, and mandated investments in CoGA issued notes of various forms. The effects of these policies is to suck out all the capital out of the private sector that services the needs of all the non-war production. That means production of those products and services has been reduced and prices are rising on what remains. Increased tithes and rising prices means that fewer people are able to purchase what goods are available.

This adds up to hyper inflation waiting to happen. The biggest factor will be how much food will be grown in all the jihadi nations not in a war zone. If the GH and the AoG gets whacked, the Border Kingdoms will be wide open to the Allies. Dollars to donuts the border Kingdom farmers flee and either leave their crops or burn them. However many refugees flee Zion-ward will be additional mouths the Temple Lands have to feed. Lord knows that Harchong won't be able to grow and ship enough food Eastward with the ICN in the Passage and the Gulf.

So once this summer passes, the jihadi economy shrinks further with Howard well and truly severed from Haven AND the Border land producing only resources draining refugees instead of anything economically accretive. Even if these refugees are put to work for room and board building the tools of war, they will still need food, clothing and shelter that is growing ever more expensive as production and transportation of those necessities grow more limited due to a whole host of reasons.

That makes Zion a serious powder keg come winter as masses of refuges slowly starve or not so slowly freeze, news of the concentration camps spread, the reformist successes begin to fray the confidence of the faithful and Owl's and Nynian's efforts to undermine the CoGA position escalate to bring about some serious boiling. No, not the Great depression, the parallels are more like the French Revolution.

Granted, the propaganda about the "heretics" is pretty bad, if the farmers take it seriously. And staying put as a war passes over your land at least once is no picnic. (For you - I guess it may be a picnic for the looters....)

But even granting that, when the alternative is loss of your land and being a hungry refugee in a crowded city with the war coming at you still anyway... don't you think a lot of those Border State farmers will stay put instead of your "flee west" or "flee west and burn stuff" options? Not that it helps the jihadi economies in that case a whole lot. They'd have fewer refugees to feed, but fewer refugees to use either.

it is a difficult choice.

Stay and hope that the church might, GASP, be WRONG about the charisians and they won't kill you/your family.

OR

burn the farm and flee because you KNOW that the church will not allow the faithful to starve/freeze.

Binary solution set, run or don't run.

if the local clergy are of reformist leaning (quietly reformist i should say) then you might stick round as the local priest believes things aren't as bad as they have been depicted.

BUT if you have a fire and brimstone heretic hater then they will probably tell you burn and run

Dauntless wrote:it is a difficult choice.

Stay and hope that the church might, GASP, be WRONG about the charisians and they won't kill you/your family.

OR

burn the farm and flee because you KNOW that the church will not allow the faithful to starve/freeze.

Binary solution set, run or don't run.

if the local clergy are of reformist leaning (quietly reformist i should say) then you might stick round as the local priest believes things aren't as bad as they have been depicted.

BUT if you have a fire and brimstone heretic hater then they will probably tell you burn and run

I wonder if some of them might flee east... Sidarmark will probably look like the horn of plenty compared with the Temple Lands by that time. They might have a chance to actually eat.

Don

n7axw wrote:I wonder if some of them might flee east... Sidarmark will probably look like the horn of plenty compared with the Temple Lands by that time. They might have a chance to actually eat.

Don

Yes. Siddarmark may also look like the land of safety and responsible government, too.

Apart from likely preferences though, these are not people who will often or always have ideal freedom to act on them. A desperate Temple may round people up and "evacuate" them westward, lest the heretics get or keep people to work the fields. Or the farmers may not be able to move east or west, because the roads are jammed with armies and they are trying to move livestock or tools. (Because, you know, they don't want to starve when they get where they are going.)