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The Maya Crisis...

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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by Hutch   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:14 pm

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SWM wrote:Yes, I do remember that, but what I remember of it does not imply that the Solarian League takes out bonds. I believe it just meant that the League would take responsibility for paying off the bonds if necessary. I will check on it again, though.

But what I was asking about was your reference to the League needing to take out bonds for infrastructure at "Hiawatha". I don't recall anything about the League building up infrastructure.


I do have access to ToF, and a couple of quotes to hopefully help.

First, regarding Hiawatha, it appears that was a Commercial venture with the Government offering some 'protection'...

"First, no matter who fronted the cash—Manpower or Technodyne—the fact remains that very few corporations in history have ever thrown such huge resources into speculative endeavors as risky as the Monica project. Oh, there've probably been at least a few private venture operations with this kind of price tag, given the scale the big transtellars operate on. All those battlecruisers together didn't cost much more than a couple of superdreadnoughts all by themselves, after all, even if they had to pay full price for them. And when you stack that up against something like, say, TranStar of Terra's infrastructure project in Hiawatha, it starts looking downright picayune. But the risk factor in this case was way outside any standard operation. Especially one that was unsecured. TranStar got a huge chunk of its expenses guaranteed upfront by the League before it ever sent the first survey crew into Hiawatha, and that sure as hell didn't happen here! If everything had worked, they'd have made a fortune. But if anything went wrong—which, after all, it did—they were going to get exactly zilch back on whatever they put into the effort. That's what's so far outside the standard models."


Regarding Erewhon and Investments/Bonds:

"Trust me, Brent. When I get done writing my evaluation as Frontier Fleet's senior officer here in the Sector, everybody back on Old Earth's going to understand that we're critically short of the sort of light units—destroyers, maybe the occasional light cruiser—you need for commerce protection. Unfortunately, everyone's always short of light units like that. Most systems with the kind of economic clout we have are full members of the League, which means they can raise their own system-defense forces to provide that sort of protection. We can't; we're officially a protectorate. That means the only place we can get the escorts we need is from Frontier Fleet, but Frontier Fleet doesn't have them to spare. So, what I'll be doing is using discretionary funds, plus additional 'special subscriptions' the governor is going to screw out of the local merchants and manufacturers, to buy a few extra destroyers, which will then become the property of Frontier Fleet. They'll be integrated into my own squadrons out here, they won't cost the Navy (or any of the other bureaucracies back home) a single centicredit, and when the situation out here finally calms down, Frontier Fleet will cheerfully transfer them somewhere else.
"Or that's what they think will happen, anyway."
Stephens could have shaved with Rozsak's smile.
"And they're also going to think that what we're building are only destroyers," Watanapongse added. "The 'light cruisers' are officially going to be Erewhonese units, not ours. We'll be 'borrowing' a few of them from Admiral McAvoy once the piracy situation starts getting out of hand out here. It'll be another example of how those silly neobarbs built more ships than they had the cash and manpower to keep operational, so in the interests of getting the League's hooks even more deeply into the Republic of Erewhon, we'll be providing naval assistance in the form of experienced officers to help the poor neobarbs find their way around. In the meantime, no one back home's going to realize that our new 'destroyers' are going to be the next best thing to the same size as our Morrigan-class light cruisers."


"There's actually turned out to be even more cash in the till than I'd expected," he replied. "I don't think we can siphon any more out of our official budget without risking questions from Permanent Senior Undersecretary Wodoslawski's minions at Treasury, but it's rather impressive how much some of the transstellars' local management has been willing to kick into my 'discretionary fund' for those 'subscription ships' of yours. And even better, Donald's managed to arrange things so that a good seventy percent of our total costs look like—and are, for that matter—good, sound investment opportunities." He shrugged. "We're still racking up a pretty impressive debt, but Donald and Brent are both confident we'll be able to service the interest and pay down the Sector's own public debt within no more than five to ten T-years."


"At any rate, right now, and not wanting to wish any additional unhappiness on our newfound friends in Maytag, it's offering us quite a few interesting opportunities we probably wouldn't have had otherwise. Among other things, CIG ended up needing a lot more capital investment from our side to get it up and running. That's why we floated that new bond issue back on Old Earth, which is also one of the reasons we're in better economic shape—and in a much better strategic position in Erewhon—at this point than we'd expected to be. Financially, the fact that the Sector was already so heavily invested in Erewhon gave us plenty of cover when the resumption of hostilities meant we had to raise additional capital from sources outside our immediate area. And Treasury was perfectly willing to sign off on the bonds—for the bureaucrats' usual cut, of course."
He smiled evilly, and Rozsak raised both eyebrows in silent question.
"Well," Barregos told him cheerfully, "those same bureaucrats back on Old Earth insisted—positively insisted—that the bond issue in question be underwritten directly by the Treasury instead of the Sector administration. I think it had something to do with . . . bookkeeping issues."
Rozsak snorted harshly in amused understanding. He wasn't at all surprised that the Treasury Department personnel in question wanted to handle the accounting as much in-house as possible, since it was so much easier to cook their own books (and hide their inevitable peculation) than it was to skim off of someone else's cash flow without detection. But that was merely the Solarian League's basic SOP, and he was still a bit puzzled by the governor's obvious amusement.
"And having them do the bookkeeping helps us exactly how?" the admiral asked after a moment. "Obviously it does, somehow, but I would've thought that having their fingers directly in the pie would be more likely to sound alarms at their end as we get further down the road."
"As long as the graft keeps rolling in, they aren't going to care what we're really doing with the money at this end," Barregos pointed out. "That's a given, and it's been part of our strategy from the very beginning. But what else it does for us is to make the debt a charge on the Solarian League, not the Maya Sector, and it never occurred to me or Donald that we might be able to get away with that!"
"And?" Rozsak asked.
"And, Luiz, if the day should ever come—perish the thought—when we good, loyal Solarians out here in the Sector should find ourselves in less than full accord with Frontier Security HQ or the Interior Department in general, we won't be the ones responsible for paying the bondholders off. As far as we're concerned, all that dreadful debt—close to sixty percent of our total investment in CIG, will be owed to Solarian citizens, not anyone out here. And the obligation to pay off those bonds, Donald tells me, will also belong to the League Treasury. Which means that as far as we're concerned it will just . . . go away. Poof."


Press On.
***********************************************
No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow.

What? Look, somebody's got to have some damn perspective around here! Boom. Sooner or later. BOOM! -LT. Cmdr. Susan Ivanova, Babylon 5
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by Armed Neo-Bob   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:25 pm

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Hutch wrote:
SWM wrote:Yes, I do remember that, but what I remember of it does not imply that the Solarian League takes out bonds. I believe it just meant that the League would take responsibility for paying off the bonds if necessary. I will check on it again, though.

But what I was asking about was your reference to the League needing to take out bonds for infrastructure at "Hiawatha". I don't recall anything about the League building up infrastructure.


I do have access to ToF, and a couple of quotes to hopefully help.

First, regarding Hiawatha, it appears that was a Commercial venture with the Government offering some 'protection'...

"First, no matter who fronted the cash—Manpower or Technodyne—the fact remains that very few corporations in history have ever thrown such huge resources into speculative endeavors as risky as the Monica project. Oh, there've probably been at least a few private venture operations with this kind of price tag, given the scale the big transtellars operate on. All those battlecruisers together didn't cost much more than a couple of superdreadnoughts all by themselves, after all, even if they had to pay full price for them. And when you stack that up against something like, say, TranStar of Terra's infrastructure project in Hiawatha, it starts looking downright picayune. But the risk factor in this case was way outside any standard operation. Especially one that was unsecured. TranStar got a huge chunk of its expenses guaranteed upfront by the League before it ever sent the first survey crew into Hiawatha, and that sure as hell didn't happen here! If everything had worked, they'd have made a fortune. But if anything went wrong—which, after all, it did—they were going to get exactly zilch back on whatever they put into the effort. That's what's so far outside the standard models."


Regarding Erewhon and Investments/Bonds:

"Trust me, Brent. When I get done writing my evaluation as Frontier Fleet's senior officer here in the Sector, everybody back on Old Earth's going to understand that we're critically short of the sort of light units—destroyers, maybe the occasional light cruiser—you need for commerce protection. Unfortunately, everyone's always short of light units like that. Most systems with the kind of economic clout we have are full members of the League, which means they can raise their own system-defense forces to provide that sort of protection. We can't; we're officially a protectorate. That means the only place we can get the escorts we need is from Frontier Fleet, but Frontier Fleet doesn't have them to spare. So, what I'll be doing is using discretionary funds, plus additional 'special subscriptions' the governor is going to screw out of the local merchants and manufacturers, to buy a few extra destroyers, which will then become the property of Frontier Fleet. They'll be integrated into my own squadrons out here, they won't cost the Navy (or any of the other bureaucracies back home) a single centicredit, and when the situation out here finally calms down, Frontier Fleet will cheerfully transfer them somewhere else.
"Or that's what they think will happen, anyway."
Stephens could have shaved with Rozsak's smile.
"And they're also going to think that what we're building are only destroyers," Watanapongse added. "The 'light cruisers' are officially going to be Erewhonese units, not ours. We'll be 'borrowing' a few of them from Admiral McAvoy once the piracy situation starts getting out of hand out here. It'll be another example of how those silly neobarbs built more ships than they had the cash and manpower to keep operational, so in the interests of getting the League's hooks even more deeply into the Republic of Erewhon, we'll be providing naval assistance in the form of experienced officers to help the poor neobarbs find their way around. In the meantime, no one back home's going to realize that our new 'destroyers' are going to be the next best thing to the same size as our Morrigan-class light cruisers."


"There's actually turned out to be even more cash in the till than I'd expected," he replied. "I don't think we can siphon any more out of our official budget without risking questions from Permanent Senior Undersecretary Wodoslawski's minions at Treasury, but it's rather impressive how much some of the transstellars' local management has been willing to kick into my 'discretionary fund' for those 'subscription ships' of yours. And even better, Donald's managed to arrange things so that a good seventy percent of our total costs look like—and are, for that matter—good, sound investment opportunities." He shrugged. "We're still racking up a pretty impressive debt, but Donald and Brent are both confident we'll be able to service the interest and pay down the Sector's own public debt within no more than five to ten T-years."


"At any rate, right now, and not wanting to wish any additional unhappiness on our newfound friends in Maytag, it's offering us quite a few interesting opportunities we probably wouldn't have had otherwise. Among other things, CIG ended up needing a lot more capital investment from our side to get it up and running. That's why we floated that new bond issue back on Old Earth, which is also one of the reasons we're in better economic shape—and in a much better strategic position in Erewhon—at this point than we'd expected to be. Financially, the fact that the Sector was already so heavily invested in Erewhon gave us plenty of cover when the resumption of hostilities meant we had to raise additional capital from sources outside our immediate area. And Treasury was perfectly willing to sign off on the bonds—for the bureaucrats' usual cut, of course."
He smiled evilly, and Rozsak raised both eyebrows in silent question.
"Well," Barregos told him cheerfully, "those same bureaucrats back on Old Earth insisted—positively insisted—that the bond issue in question be underwritten directly by the Treasury instead of the Sector administration. I think it had something to do with . . . bookkeeping issues."
Rozsak snorted harshly in amused understanding. He wasn't at all surprised that the Treasury Department personnel in question wanted to handle the accounting as much in-house as possible, since it was so much easier to cook their own books (and hide their inevitable peculation) than it was to skim off of someone else's cash flow without detection. But that was merely the Solarian League's basic SOP, and he was still a bit puzzled by the governor's obvious amusement.
"And having them do the bookkeeping helps us exactly how?" the admiral asked after a moment. "Obviously it does, somehow, but I would've thought that having their fingers directly in the pie would be more likely to sound alarms at their end as we get further down the road."
"As long as the graft keeps rolling in, they aren't going to care what we're really doing with the money at this end," Barregos pointed out. "That's a given, and it's been part of our strategy from the very beginning. But what else it does for us is to make the debt a charge on the Solarian League, not the Maya Sector, and it never occurred to me or Donald that we might be able to get away with that!"
"And?" Rozsak asked.
"And, Luiz, if the day should ever come—perish the thought—when we good, loyal Solarians out here in the Sector should find ourselves in less than full accord with Frontier Security HQ or the Interior Department in general, we won't be the ones responsible for paying the bondholders off. As far as we're concerned, all that dreadful debt—close to sixty percent of our total investment in CIG, will be owed to Solarian citizens, not anyone out here. And the obligation to pay off those bonds, Donald tells me, will also belong to the League Treasury. Which means that as far as we're concerned it will just . . . go away. Poof."


Press On.



Thanks Hutch! for all of the quotes.

Please notice the reference to "public debt", which is what some have said isn't legal.

Regards, everyone.

Rob
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by SWM   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:53 pm

SWM
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Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Thanks Hutch! for all of the quotes.

Please notice the reference to "public debt", which is what some have said isn't legal.

Regards, everyone.

Rob

I was the one who said that it was illegal for the League government. I also said that it was the local government which was taking out the bonds, not the League government, and the quote shows that. The Solarian League Treasury is underwriting the Maya bonds, it is not taking out the bonds itself. That may be a big enough difference to get around the legality issue.
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by drothgery   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:07 pm

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SWM wrote:I was the one who said that it was illegal for the League government.
I said that it was almost certainly effectively impossible for the League to borrow large amounts of money (and by large amounts I meant 'enough to finance the war against Manticore') because if it were easy for them to put off their financial problems for a few years/decades by borrowing money, they'd just do it.
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by Armed Neo-Bob   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:18 pm

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drothgery wrote:
SWM wrote:I was the one who said that it was illegal for the League government.
I said that it was almost certainly effectively impossible for the League to borrow large amounts of money (and by large amounts I meant 'enough to finance the war against Manticore') because if it were easy for them to put off their financial problems for a few years/decades by borrowing money, they'd just do it.



I think that is exactly what they are going to try to do, though; after all, if you suppose they lose 25% of their incoming cashflow (out of a possible 35%) due to the Lacoön, and lose a part of the 30% of their cashflow with the protectorates system blowing up (still in the process, but happening), they just aren't going to have a lot of choices. I don't think they will dare try direct taxation--I think they will use public debt financing. Until they are forced out, anyway.

SWM, I don't understand the distinction between this "underwriting" of the Maya Sectors' bonds (not when they are distributing the bonds, and assuming responsibility for repayment) and issuing the bonds for themselves. Or, at least, I don't get why they couldn't have two or three hundred core systems help them by letting them underwrite lots and lots of bonds. After all, if they never had a default before. . . .. .

regards,
Rob
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by SWM   » Mon Aug 03, 2015 6:04 pm

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Armed Neo-Bob wrote:I think that is exactly what they are going to try to do, though; after all, if you suppose they lose 25% of their incoming cashflow (out of a possible 35%) due to the Lacoön, and lose a part of the 30% of their cashflow with the protectorates system blowing up (still in the process, but happening), they just aren't going to have a lot of choices. I don't think they will dare try direct taxation--I think they will use public debt financing. Until they are forced out, anyway.

SWM, I don't understand the distinction between this "underwriting" of the Maya Sectors' bonds (not when they are distributing the bonds, and assuming responsibility for repayment) and issuing the bonds for themselves. Or, at least, I don't get why they couldn't have two or three hundred core systems help them by letting them underwrite lots and lots of bonds. After all, if they never had a default before. . . .. .

regards,
Rob

I think you are misunderstanding what underwriting means. It means that they take responsibility for repaying the bonds if Maya fails to do so. The League does not get any of the money. Some individuals in the League Treasury get some money by skimming it off, but the League itself does not get the money from bond sales--Maya does. The League does not gain anything by underwriting the bonds except (they believe) the security of Maya and the friendship of Erewhon. The only reason the Treasury wanted to underwrite the bonds is the greed of the staffers who were going to skim off the top.
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by OrlandoNative   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:10 pm

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Erls wrote:C- That Harvest Joy made translation and was attacked in whatever system it landed in. Now this one is really interesting, because not many actors would attack a wormhole survey ship when they know how important a wormhole is. I don't even think Admiral Byng would have attacked it: He would have demanded their surrender and their data so he could cash in on 'finding' a new wormhole in Solly space! So, under this thought, wherever it ends is controlled by someone who doesn't want to be found. Pirates, secret naval base, Mesa, etc...


In one of the books, it's noted that humanity *has* found other sentient species so far in the galaxy. Other than the treecats and the Medusans, however, nothing is really said as to their technology levels, aggressiveness/teritorialness, or even their spacial locations. We tend to forget about aliens, other than treecats, since the Honorverse novels are basically human-centric and definitely Manticore-centric. But it's a big galaxy out there, most of which is not yet explored by humans. It's approximately 100,000 lightyears in diameter, and the farthest noted explorations are only about 2,000 light years out from Sol.

So while a hostile *human* intervention would probably be considered more likely, without knowing where the wormhole ended up, it's still only *one* possible scenario for (C).
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by OrlandoNative   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:17 pm

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SWM wrote:
Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Thanks Hutch! for all of the quotes.

Please notice the reference to "public debt", which is what some have said isn't legal.

Regards, everyone.

Rob

I was the one who said that it was illegal for the League government. I also said that it was the local government which was taking out the bonds, not the League government, and the quote shows that. The Solarian League Treasury is underwriting the Maya bonds, it is not taking out the bonds itself. That may be a big enough difference to get around the legality issue.


Considering what they've already done, I don't think "legality" issues are something the League's "shadow government" really care about.

They've already admitted that much of what they've done in governing the League is illegal under the League's own constitution.
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by kzt   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:50 pm

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OrlandoNative wrote:Considering what they've already done, I don't think "legality" issues are something the League's "shadow government" really care about.

They've already admitted that much of what they've done in governing the League is illegal under the League's own constitution.

To quote a well known corrupt politician who got away with it: "There is no controlling legal authority that says this was in violation of law." So what of it? Who is going to charge them? Who is going to prosecute them? Who is going to stop them? Who interprets the constitution to say what is an isn't legal and who hires and fires them?
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Re: The Maya Crisis...
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Aug 05, 2015 1:37 pm

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OrlandoNative wrote:
Erls wrote:C- That Harvest Joy made translation and was attacked in whatever system it landed in. Now this one is really interesting, because not many actors would attack a wormhole survey ship when they know how important a wormhole is. I don't even think Admiral Byng would have attacked it: He would have demanded their surrender and their data so he could cash in on 'finding' a new wormhole in Solly space! So, under this thought, wherever it ends is controlled by someone who doesn't want to be found. Pirates, secret naval base, Mesa, etc...


In one of the books, it's noted that humanity *has* found other sentient species so far in the galaxy. Other than the treecats and the Medusans, however, nothing is really said as to their technology levels, aggressiveness/teritorialness, or even their spacial locations. We tend to forget about aliens, other than treecats, since the Honorverse novels are basically human-centric and definitely Manticore-centric. But it's a big galaxy out there, most of which is not yet explored by humans. It's approximately 100,000 lightyears in diameter, and the farthest noted explorations are only about 2,000 light years out from Sol.

So while a hostile *human* intervention would probably be considered more likely, without knowing where the wormhole ended up, it's still only *one* possible scenario for (C).

There are also:
the Alphanes (dead, with a tech base that was at least ahead in crystal growth techniques);
Growlers (possibly related to the Alphanes, probably not quite what anyone wants to call sentient);
Amphor (dead, driven into extinction by the humans of Barstool - bad humans, no cookie!);
Barthoni (alive, I think, and with an interstellar presence, but not remotely comparable to human extent and with a tech base derived from humans - recollection and data at hand suck here, if anyone can help out);
Gilgamesh River Devil (alive, nasty, referred to in "Let's Go To Prague");
Gremlins (alive, native to Beowulf, just a bit too smart to stick in the "animal" category);
and quite a few others with even less on them. HoS mentions 27 sentient non-humans discovered so far.

Still though, forgetting aliens as a possibility for survey ship killers isn't much of a sin. It does not look as though this part of the galaxy has living aliens with an independent and comparable tech base; wormholes will rarely take you far out of this region; and an alien species with the means and will to picket the far end of a wormhole will almost certainly have had the means and will to come through it already to make contact of some sort.
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