Eleven Weeks To Go, what are you looking for?

Isilith wrote:

McGuiness wrote:
Will the EoC cut a deal with Silkiah to give them access to the Salthar canal? Will Silkiah consider becoming the logical mainland realm to join the EoC?

While I agree with many of your other points. THIS!!! I am glad to see that someone else agrees with me that the logical way for Silkiah to jump, is to jump in bed with the EoC with both feet. The advantages for Silkiah AND the EoC would be overwhelming.

Given the relative population sizes, it makes about as much sense for the Empire of Charis to join Silkiah. Which is to say nothing against (e.g.) being a very tame "occupied" territory, becoming a benevolent neutral (if they can make anyone on the Temple side able to consider such a stance in a holy war), or an outright ally if they can't get away with neutrality and don't care to be fought over.

Certainly there's no national Silkiahan interest in this war - if anything, gaining full-blooded independence of Desnair and the Temple is what they could hope for out of it, if they can assert themselves one way or another. I don't see them jumping in with both feet in subjection to anyone else.

JeffEngel wrote:Given the relative population sizes, it makes about as much sense for the Empire of Charis to join Silkiah. Which is to say nothing against (e.g.) being a very tame "occupied" territory, becoming a benevolent neutral (if they can make anyone on the Temple side able to consider such a stance in a holy war), or an outright ally if they can't get away with neutrality and don't care to be fought over.

Certainly there's no national Silkiahan interest in this war - if anything, gaining full-blooded independence of Desnair and the Temple is what they could hope for out of it, if they can assert themselves one way or another. I don't see them jumping in with both feet in subjection to anyone else.

Yes, 46mm = 80mm

Hi McGuiness,

"If wishes were fishes"...

Remember the MHoGatA or MHoG is supposed to have 640,000 rifles by spring, which is not actually defined yet, and at most only 91,000 are St. Kylman breechloaders.

** below

McGuiness wrote:I'm deliberately avoiding any spoilers, although that makes me sound as if I'm not current with the snippets. That's the price I'll pay I suppose, and a few things I'm looking for obviously won't make this list...

First I'm looking for the book!

I'm very curious what the CoGA will do with the locusts otherwise known as the MHoG. 1.6 million men, with over 600,000 rifles, many of them the church's latest model.

Do we see the MHoG split into northern and southern forces? Since everyone seems to think that BGV is going to roll over Wyrshym and continue west, if that happens the MHoG is the closest and largest force to oppose him, even if Wyrshym had other reinforcements on the way.

What do those troops do if the army they were sent to rescue is gone? BGV can easily prepare his troops for a northern massacre. I'd rather send those Harchongese who have had their eyes opened as to how their masters intended to use them as cannon fodder home, along with their guns to raise havoc and a massive slave rebellion, but I seldom get what I want.

**I think you'll have to wait for the slave/serf rebellion, since the allies wouldn't be able to support it very well in the middle of the current war, but a few years down the road, some amazing things should happen.**

If there's a southern MHoG, how can Hanth possibly stand against a horde that outnumbers him 20-1? Where is the final shipment of 50,000 ICA troops being sent? (In winter might I remind everyone...)

**It'd be a great surprise if the Go4 didn't send an AGS after losing the AoS as soon as the weather permitted, but by the time they reach the Seridahn in a couple of month's news of Kaitswyrth's destruction should reach them and they will then turn north, since their orders will likely be to destroy the main allied armies wherever they are, so they'd veer north-north east by land and water, thus sparing Hanth.**

Will we FINALLY get the Battle of Gorath Bay? I wanna see the Haarahlds POUND Dohlar's capital city's waterfront into rubble - while Merlin does some derring-do to smuggle Thirsk's family free from the Inquisition's "protection." Oh, let's not forget beheading King Ronald for murdering all those Charisian POWs!

I also want to see what happens to Thirsk's fleet when they get hit by a 10" shell for the first time. How long will it take for their banners to come down when one shot destroys an entire ship from far beyond the range of their own guns?

Will Thirsk surrender his fleet and defect once his family is safe?

Will Thirsk's captive wizard's inventions do one bit of good against a Haarahld? (I sure hope not! PLEASE don't invent underwater mines!)

Will the EoC cut a deal with Silkiah to give them access to the Salthar canal? Will Silkiah consider becoming the logical mainland realm to join the EoC?

**I think handing the grand duke a fiat accompli would be preferred even by the grand duke, and why should Silkians even consider becoming Charisians?

We have absolutely no textev for such a bizarre notion, and strategically its the last thing the empire would want.

Normal diplomatic and economic ties are just fine.

While Silkiah doesn't have an army yet, it does have 46 million people so that will change quickly with RoS and EoC help, and it ought to be easily able to hold the North Watch mountainous narrows north to south, with all the passes totaling only a few dozen miles wide at most.**

How many Corisandians are going to volunteer to join the ICA after the assassination attempt on their princess and her husband? Doesn't that free up a minimum of 20,000 ICA occupation troops? (I'm gonna leave 10,000 there so nobody gets any ideas...)

I wanna see Clyntahn's tantrum when he finds out that the AoS no longer exists!

Can Ahlverez escape even though a seijin can drop in to tell the local commander that the remnants of the AoS are close by?

**That's where it gets interesting if Merlin,Nimue and Nahrmahn/Owl are 'too busy' to make the appearance or leave notes if the inner circle decides to spare Ahlverez; from how I interpret Ahlverez's intended route he plans to skirt well north of Hanth's supply route while heading west, though his currently missing cavalry regiment may have taken a road supply convoy of Hanth's with badly needed supplies for Ahlverez.**

Will DE do Hanth a favor by crushing the Dohlarans who are digging in at Evrytyn? (I expect DE will probably get a full replacement of shells and mortars when he passes by Thesmar.) I look forward to him remaining in the southern theater to defeat Dohlar, especially if there's a southern MHoG. (Yes, I've read the snippets...)

**DE is evidently headed north, presumably by canal barges to rest his men, not west so he will stop at neither Thesmar or Everytyn, which are hundreds of miles and several 5days out of his way.**

Is Dairynth and the canal head there toast? Ok, the allies will want to preserve the infrastructure, but sail a Haarahld into the Bay of Bess and EVERYBODY is going to run! That also cuts off Kaitswyrth's southern supply route. Oops!

**Since the KH VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until probably October, Kaitswyrth should be long gone.**

Will we get another cliffhanger like at the end of LaMA? (Which hadn't ever occurred in this series before, but once RFC leaves his readers hanging, he tends to enjoy the idea. Remember 3 of the last 4 Honor Harrington novels? A handshake? The battle of Beowulf set up, but no battle? Mike going after Mesa? Seriously, I was ready to SCREAM after all of them!)

Now he's done it once in Safehold, and I don't TRUST the devious celery chasing hexaped!

I think you just answered your own question.

L

Hi Isilith,


I'm sorry but there's no overriding reason for Silkiah to do any such thing.

They don't need to join the EoC, the EoC doesn't need to join them, normal relations and treaties will serve both just fine.

If you'd care to list the reasons you see I'll be happy to look at them, but this has been a thread several times and the forum consensus was against it, but feel free to change our minds!

L

Isilith wrote:

McGuiness wrote:
Will the EoC cut a deal with Silkiah to give them access to the Salthar canal? Will Silkiah consider becoming the logical mainland realm to join the EoC?

While I agree with many of your other points. THIS!!! I am glad to see that someone else agrees with me that the logical way for Silkiah to jump, is to jump in bed with the EoC with both feet. The advantages for Silkiah AND the EoC would be overwhelming.

Hi Isilith,

Yes, Silkiah has a population of 46 million which is pretty dense by Safehold standards, though Van Creveld noted 17th century Europe had around 3.5 times the population density Siddarmark has, though the fact that Silkiah is almost on the equator [ie sub-tropical] means it probably has 2 or 3 crops a year.

The EoC has around 72 million people [Charis 14, Emerald 9, Chisholm 15, Corisande 15, Tarot 11, and Zebediah 8]

Strategically, the EoC should stay an island empire as Sharleyan pointed out early in BHD.

After all, the last several years have proved Charis can survive quite well without direct access to the Salthar canal, so why change everything?

L

Isilith wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Given the relative population sizes, it makes about as much sense for the Empire of Charis to join Silkiah. Which is to say nothing against (e.g.) being a very tame "occupied" territory, becoming a benevolent neutral (if they can make anyone on the Temple side able to consider such a stance in a holy war), or an outright ally if they can't get away with neutrality and don't care to be fought over.

Certainly there's no national Silkiahan interest in this war - if anything, gaining full-blooded independence of Desnair and the Temple is what they could hope for out of it, if they can assert themselves one way or another. I don't see them jumping in with both feet in subjection to anyone else.

Yes, 46mm = 80mm

lyonheart wrote:Will the EoC cut a deal with Silkiah to give them access to the Salthar canal? Will Silkiah consider becoming the logical mainland realm to join the EoC?

[**I think handing the grand duke a fiat accompli would be preferred even by the grand duke, and why should Silkians even consider becoming Charisians?

We have absolutely no textev for such a bizarre notion, and strategically its the last thing the empire would want.

Normal diplomatic and economic ties are just fine.

While Silkiah doesn't have an army yet, it does have 46 million people so that will change quickly with RoS and EoC help, and it ought to be easily able to hold the North Watch mountainous narrows north to south, with all the passes totaling only a few dozen miles wide at most.**]

Agreed wholeheartedly.

The Empire of Charis needs every bit of positive PR it can get, and needs to avoid negative PR like the plague. It's already declared war on God's own Church - the nurturer and spiritual guardian of every man, woman and child since the day of creation. Its own people - most of whom aren't Old Charisians themselves - can be a bit shaky about that, and are reassured primarily because of the sterling example set all the time by Maikel Staynair and their monarchs.

They've secured subjects out of enemies by offering generous and fair terms, and haven't annexed anyone who wasn't already in a state of war with them. They've not brought any hammer down on the Raven Lands or Fallos because, well, they don't need to, but also because friendship (or benign indifference, perhaps, in Fallos' case) gets the job done, it demonstrates the Temple is full of it painting them as servants of Hell, and it's inexpensive (free!) in troops.

They kept covert commercial relations (until the Sword) with Silkiah in part because it worked so profitably for Silkiah but likely also because Silkiah saw this as an essentially power-politics contest with religious trappings and saw Charis as being both in the right about it and a whole lot friendlier to their interests than the Church which forced them to keep paying protection money to Desnair and dictated their policy.

Silkiah's a friend, as much as Siddarmark, only without any of its own territory under its own practical command now.

You don't conquer or annex friends. You help them back up.

More than that, you keep on showing everyone that you're no monster. Let the whole mainland know that, if you want out of the war with Charis, you can get that on the most generous terms Charis can afford. And if you want to go farther and be their friend - Clyntahn is going to make you his enemy anyway if you're not his tool anymore - they will help you back up too. That's a message that needs to be made loud and clear to Delferahk and Dohlar, for example, and maybe even Desnair. Actually liberating Silkiah's critical to sending it.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Isilith,

Yes, Silkiah has a population of 46 million which is pretty dense by Safehold standards, though Van Creveld noted 17th century Europe had around 3.5 times the population density Siddarmark has, though the fact that Silkiah is almost on the equator [ie sub-tropical] means it probably has 2 or 3 crops a year.

The EoC has around 72 million people [Charis 14, Emerald 9, Chisholm 15, Corisande 15, Tarot 11, and Zebediah 8]

Strategically, the EoC should stay an island empire as Sharleyan pointed out early in BHD.

After all, the last several years have proved Charis can survive quite well without direct access to the Salthar canal, so why change everything?

L

Old Charis has a population of 22.5 million, not 14. Textev backs that up. Old Charis had half again the population of Chisholm.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7135

Not only does textev back it up, but pure logic should as well. Historical population growth was dictated by food supply more than anything else. Yet we have Charis, a tropical paradise, that can grow 3 crops a year, with the MOST ADVANCED agricultural equipment and techniques in the world... yet Chisholm, with a much harsher climate, is supposed to have a higher population? Yeah, doesn't seem logical, at all.

Now, to address the points about Silkiah and the EoC.

Nowhere did I say the EoC should conquer and enslave Silkiah. I said it makes the most sense for Silkiah to JOIN the EoC.

The EoC makes all of its members equal partners. That means Silkiah would have access to Charisian manufacturies and techniques, as well as full Charisian backing and support to expand her industrial base. That ALSO allows Silkian goods to be transported more easily on the wings of Charisian shipping. Not even mentioning how control of the canal would benefit the EoC AND expand the Silkian economy.

As far as military benefits, if an ally the EoC would defend Silkiah, and probably help arm them. But if they were part of the EoC, they would be armed to Charisian standards, with Charisian arms manufacturies inside Silkiah pumping out modern arms.

It would be beneficial for Silkiah to be an ally, I just say they gain more by joining out right. Including the fact that the EoC would snip off that whole coastline of North Watch from Desnair, down to where the mountains meet the shore, to bottle Desnair up on the other side of the mountains, as well as fortifying the western end of the canal to keep both Desnair and Dohlar out.

Remember, Silkiah is not a republic like Siddarmark, so they would be much more at ease, and amicable, with their nobility making a "state union" like Emerald, Chisholm, Tarot, etc, have done...

Hi Isilith,

I didn't realise how new you were from your wise posts.

I'm sure I welcomed you earlier, or at least I hoped I did; If not please belatedly enjoy your favorite beverage on the simulated forum.

I've been a stickler for trying to determine all sorts of background data to fill various pieces of the puzzle, and the various population sizes were very much a part of that.

There's other textev besides that which refer to Charis relative to Emerald, as well as the mainland's to the 'island kingdoms' [including Chisholm] as 80-90% and 85% repeatedly when the post you refer to put it at ~93%; a much different relationship [4-6 to 1 odds are a lot better than 13-1] to mention just one inconsistency among some others.

Pointing it and yours out as I did more than a few times didn't win me any brownie points either; his response was rather pithy and painful.

One should keep in mind that RFC started writing this series at least 9 years ago, and the depth of his understanding of his complex creation has understandably changed over that time.

So while your points are logical and agree with the BSRA etc textev, as did mine, I believe the lower figure is the one RFC is currently using.

So until he changes it, use the lower figure.

L

Isilith wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Isilith,

Yes, Silkiah has a population of 46 million which is pretty dense by Safehold standards, though Van Creveld noted 17th century Europe had around 3.5 times the population density Siddarmark has, though the fact that Silkiah is almost on the equator [ie sub-tropical] means it probably has 2 or 3 crops a year.

The EoC has around 72 million people [Charis 14, Emerald 9, Chisholm 15, Corisande 15, Tarot 11, and Zebediah 8]

Strategically, the EoC should stay an island empire as Sharleyan pointed out early in BHD.

After all, the last several years have proved Charis can survive quite well without direct access to the Salthar canal, so why change everything?

L

Old Charis has a population of 22.5 million, not 14. Textev backs that up. Old Charis had half again the population of Chisholm.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7135

Not only does textev back it up, but pure logic should as well. Historical population growth was dictated by food supply more than anything else. Yet we have Charis, a tropical paradise, that can grow 3 crops a year, with the MOST ADVANCED agricultural equipment and techniques in the world... yet Chisholm, with a much harsher climate, is supposed to have a higher population? Yeah, doesn't seem logical, at all.

Hi Isilith,

Neither Jeff nor I accused you of saying the alliance wanted or intended to conquer or enslave Silkiah, indeed the term I've always preferred is 'liberate' [in the process of taking the canal ], though some other posters didn't like it; but annexing it etc is quite unnecessary, and as Puerto Rico has demonstrated, colonies can be a pain.

More to the point, Charis is already providing all those benefits you cited to Siddamark, courtesy of a treaty, which doesn't require incorporation into the EoC.

NTM, this has been a subject of several threads over the years, many of them started by me.

Given that we know very little about Silkiah and absolutely nothing about the Grand Duke of Silkiah [aside from his existence], except that he's quietly supported the smuggling despite Clyntahn's threats, that probably included assassination if it had been possible; which says to me that the GDS may be a fairly popular guy, and might easily remain the GDS or even be elected the equivalent of 'Lord Protector', were Silkiah to lean towards the republic which it very well might, since it was the republic's pressure on Desnar that created the Grand Duchy in the first place, but I don't see the allies even suggesting that Silkiah change its form of government, because offering simple true independence, is more than a big enough prize for most Silkians I expect to prefer the alliance over the temple and Desnar.

Despite the fact that we see the war shifting to the alliance, not everyone does, and I suspect many if not most Silkians wouldn't want to get any closer to Charis or the republic than they have to right now.

If Silkiah did join Charis, how soon before Clyntahn triggered another SoS inside Silkiah and created a civil war and worse?

Even if he couldn't, primarily due to time constraints, how many Silkiahans would believe he would as soon as he could, and thus oppose any such union as you propose?

IIRC, the forum consensus was that the Silkians would prefer to become truly independent for the first time, rather than subject themselves again to more foreigners, NTM even further distant, however benign.

Normal trade and diplomatic ties as Jeff pointed out may be more important now in the near term as demonstrating the alliance isn't going to conquer and expropriate everyone and everything.

Then step back and look at it from Charis's position; preserving her vast ocean moats, rather than getting entangled in any continental state [wisdom is avoiding a land war in Asia-"Princess Bride"] that could potentially turn into a quagmire that is to be avoided like the plague.

Read Sharleyan's wisdom in BHD again, as well as remembering "England has no permanent friends, but she has permanent interests" etc as guides to the EoC's foreign policy keys.

L

Isilith wrote:Now, to address the points about Silkiah and the EoC.

Nowhere did I say the EoC should conquer and enslave Silkiah. I said it makes the most sense for Silkiah to JOIN the EoC.

The EoC makes all of its members equal partners. That means Silkiah would have access to Charisian manufacturies and techniques, as well as full Charisian backing and support to expand her industrial base. That ALSO allows Silkian goods to be transported more easily on the wings of Charisian shipping. Not even mentioning how control of the canal would benefit the EoC AND expand the Silkian economy.

As far as military benefits, if an ally the EoC would defend Silkiah, and probably help arm them. But if they were part of the EoC, they would be armed to Charisian standards, with Charisian arms manufacturies inside Silkiah pumping out modern arms.

It would be beneficial for Silkiah to be an ally, I just say they gain more by joining out right. Including the fact that the EoC would snip off that whole coastline of North Watch from Desnair, down to where the mountains meet the shore, to bottle Desnair up on the other side of the mountains, as well as fortifying the western end of the canal to keep both Desnair and Dohlar out.

Remember, Silkiah is not a republic like Siddarmark, so they would be much more at ease, and amicable, with their nobility making a "state union" like Emerald, Chisholm, Tarot, etc, have done...