HFQ Official Snippet #28

tootall wrote:...
3) And that is why I don't believe they will let the most experienced troops of all- Ahlverez's Dohlarians- escape.

There is that blocking battery down the road that Ahlverez is marching down. Ahlverez has to go through them as there is no bypass route and he has now thrown away his artillery.

The Charisans will be much outnumbered but far better equipped.

It sounds like Zion is going to be even shorter on supplies this year. From the descriptions of what happened when the Temple armies were killing off thousands of farmers & villagers in the process of cleaning out heretics, the actual ability to grow usable plants on the now vacant land was farilry good with crops comming up from fallow fields- in the 1st year. That is going to drop off quickly and while some of the resulting crops were able to be harvested, there are fewer people and much lower yealds.

Ahlverez could become a problem if he can cut any of the ICA supply lines, even if just in a fast raid then get out of the way of any pursuit.
It also sounds like any Temple Boys found in newly liberated areas are going to be killed almost out-of-hand, further reducing the Church forces for possible use as guerrilla tactics. Might even be a good idea to take a large number of TBs you capture and force them to cross any of the no-man's-land between the COGA and ICA forces: it adds to the logistical problems of the Church, it is quite likely that the Church will "make examples" of them for being "cowards" and running away from their duty so further beat down Church troop moral.

Sorry, another long post but I've been writing it for days! I apologize that it rambles a bit, but it does cover a lot of what may be about to happen... (Which means I'm dead wrong and RFC is laughing his head off!)

For some reason people keep forgetting that the ICN could have sailed into Temple Bay and taken control of the temple right after AMF. After all, they ruled the seas, their weapons were superior to anything the CoGA could cobble together, and they'd just captured 70 galleons or so that the CoGA could no longer use to attack the ICN - but they made GREAT troop transports, as demonstrated in MTaT and LaMA.

So if RFC had wanted to finish off the series without a mainland war in Siddarmark, it was certainly possible. That wouldn't have spurred the innovation that Merlin wanted, but a few million people wouldn't have died either, which might have been a bit easier on his conscience. The good guys might have stumbled blindly into whatever is in the basement, but that's the still the situation now, except they have the Key of Scheuler, and absolutely no desire to use it!

So realistically we've gone three books where the Temple has been helpless to stop Cayleb and Sharley from keeping their individual promises to "Send the fleet to Temple Bay and start unloading the troops." The ICN doesn't need a King Haarahld VII or two in order to accomplish the job. It would make things easier while they unload reinforcements, but since every member of the CoGA is supposed to visit the temple in his/her life, infiltrating several hundred burly pilgrims isn't a problem. Now that they're armed with pistols, it would be simple for them to eliminate the temple guard, bar the outside doors, and go evil vicar hunting while they wait for the Haarahlds to stop shelling any areas around the Temple where the temple guard assembles to try to make a counter-assault. A few hours later thousands of scout snipers, demolitions experts, artillery crews with their guns, and soldiers who can deal out general mayhem would arrive from Temple Bay, or sooner if they can sail up the Zion river, and there's no way the thugs who pass for Temple guards in the area, which all answer to Clyntahn, not Magwair as the army chief, are ever going to take the temple back! (Plus the Plaza of Martyrs will have a new reason for its name!)

Cahnyr is as much a mascot and symbol of God's approval as anything else to the Siddarmarkan troops, as well as being one of the two decent archbishops of the CoGA on the planet who are still alive, (Staynair was the other) so if he's going to ride 300 miles in the winter, he's going to get a full military briefing for his troubles. That doesn't mean the briefing will be accurate, since we don't know if there are TLs in his entourage. However, the fact that he "knows" about the Grand Plan also means he won't be anywhere near the battles, and I'm sure his security detail - I mean his "helpful entourage" will be beefed up as well. So unless RFC gets sneaky and something bad happens during Cahnyr's visit...

I REALLY disagree with leaving Hanth to deal with Dohlar on his own, and this could be RFC misleading Cahnyr. Yes, our latest seijin will probably show up to tell Hanth where Ahlverez is, and capturing men who can barely walk and are starving to death is actually doing them a favor - I just hope that Ahlverez has the brains to surrender before the remnants of his weak, famished, and exhausted army are destroyed. As someone mentioned, if he escapes, his troops will arrive home in no shape to fight for a while, but they'd be the most veteran army that the CoGA has at that point, so there's no sense at all in letting them get away.

With DE headed north anyway, I don't see why he doesn't pause for a few days "rest" and blow the heck out of Evrytyn, especially since all the church's latest weapons are about to be unleashed on the allies there. Meanwhile Hanth, who is undermanned and overstretched is being tasked with stopping everything the entire nation of Dohlar can throw at him. That just doesn't make sense, so obviously RFC hasn't told us something - like the "Grand Plan" was disinformation, or where the final 50,000 ICA troops were sent during the winter! (Doesn't that make their destination pretty obvious?)

I'm glad there are two seijins now, since they're both clearly going to be needed keep DE. HM, Symkyn, and Hanth updated on enemy positions to avoid potential disasters. Frankly, it's high time to bring Hanth into the inner circle so he can handle these sorts of things on his own, without the mistakes that might occur by getting the info secondhand from Merlin or Nimue. I don't know if HM or Symkyn could handle the big reveal, but having four of your five generals out of the loop unless a seijin appears to explain the current situation to them is a disaster waiting to happen. (Although written messages from anonymous seijins are common and accepted in Siddarmark these days...)

Hanth doesn't have ICA troops that we know of - he has ICN marines and a bunch of drafted sailors, with RSA troops guarding Thesmar. I'm amazed by his remarkable accomplishments so far, but he's stretched so thin with so little guidance that a fairly small Dohlaran army could punch right through his thinly stretched defenses. Fortunately, as far as we know there isn't a Dohlaran force available that could do that - which doesn't mean they won't organize a new one soon. The last 50,000 men en route from Chisholm had better be headed his way - although the fact that Howsmyn sent him several hundred "special" shells since he couldn't send him anything else worries me. (RFC is being quite tricky here...) Make Hanth a member of the inner circle or you're gonna lose him - or he'll eventually be blindsided and driven back.

As for the Grand Plan as laid out to Cahnyr, I don't like it one bit! (Which ought to be a major hint that it's disinformation.) DE ought to help Hanth crush Dohlar and drive it back to its borders, then smash every lock in the Sairhalik Switch canal where it joins the Sheryl - Seridahn canal to severely hamper any troops headed to reinforce Kaitswyrth, especially if a southern contingent of the MHoG is sent in that direction.

It's always easier to pick off your enemy in penny-packets, as RFC has demonstrated over and over again, so I think Symkyn was outlining an unlikely story to our aged but beloved cleric. The last thing the allies want is for thousands of Border Land troops with the latest church rifles to show up and make Kaitswyrth even harder to drive from Aivahnstyn. Flank his lines and slaughter the reinforcements before they arrive. No need to wait - the ICA could actually have its troops in position before the enemy even makes its move, since the ground is frozen. Kaitswyrth would be forced to retreat, since his supply lines would be cut behind him. That, my friends, is probably the grand plan. But knowing RFC, you just never know..

Kaitswyrth should soon realize that he has no alternative but to retreat westward, and if he doesn't do it soon, he and his troops will starve. I'm not sure how many people noticed (it's much easier if you use the map that shows the battle movements) but the New Northland Canal is completely intact from Ranshair to Five Forks, as it says in MTaT that its repairs were nearly complete, and that is exactly where we expected BGV to march to after he captures/destroys Wyrshym and the AoSG. So worst case, that leaves him with the army he took through Midhold, the army he left in the Sylmahn Gap, and any ironclads the allies decide to send to Lake Isyk through New Northland canal and on to Lake Maysn, which would cut off Kaitswyrth's northern supply route, and starve any northern contingent of the MHoG.

I realize that the CoGA now has standing orders to blow the locks if an ironclad appears in a canal, so it will be more difficult to move troops and supplies through the New Northland canal, but properly handled, it should be possible. (Although Merlin may have to pull out his katana again to eliminate a few semaphore or lock crews, and we all know how much he abhors doing that.)

Sharpfield isn't going to go too deep into the Gulf of Dohlar just in case a powerful storm from the west blows in, which we saw in AMF, although if his Rottweilers didn't founder in such a storm, he could still destroy anything Thirsk threw at him. The Haarahld VIIs should arrive in the Gulf by August or September, and they're going to have two targets: Dairynth, which cuts off the Kaitswyrth's southern supply route plus transportation and supplies for any possible southern contingent of the MHoG, and Port Salthar to capture the west end of the Salthar Canal. They'll blow Gorath harbor to hell at their leisure, which we've been waiting for with great anticipation for a few books now.

I expect it's possible to negotiate control of the Salthar canal from Silkiah (which has no army) and isn't doing much shipping through that canal anyway now that the joint Dohlaran/Desnairan AoS has been destroyed. That would cut 20,000 miles from the EoC's supply route! I'm sure the ICA could scrounge up enough men to guard the locks, provided they get to them in time. A bit of help from Silkiah would make capturing the adjacent semaphore towers easy. Just arrest all the TLs or remove the crews, since they aren't sending any messages north through Siddarmark.

However if you have some friendly semaphore operators to sift through the message traffic and send along anything that isn't from the CoGA, the paltry few messages that are earmarked to be sent through Dohlar might succumb to OWL's decrypting and be passed along to a lurking seijin - and an objectionable message only has to be stopped at one tower... Single use cyphers might not be crackable, but the EoC could add a rule that "If we can't crack it, we won't send it." (Although you don't tell the customer that!)

If semaphore traffic continues, then even if the locks are rigged to explode and a "blow up the locks if you stop getting semaphore messages" order in place, the order will never be triggered, and then the ICA will pounce.

So it's quite possible that Silkiah and the EoC could keep the locks in the canal intact by preventing any semaphore crews from calling for help. while the ironclads sweep in with barges full of soldiers to capture the towers and locks. Once the canal is captured (or even if it isn't) Dohlar and Desnair are out of the war. Their coastal defenses will be rubble, Gorath may not exist, and Thirsk's fleet will be flotsam and jetsam, although it appears that Thirsk himself may survive (which I've expected) since he'll fake his death, possibly with the aid of Nimue, while Merlin frees his family from the Inquisition in the confusion of the ICA invading Gorath after the ICN's shelling destroys the harbor and city's defenses. (Think Iythria on a much larger scale where the enemy doesn't surrender outright, although cowardly King Ronald may do just that!)

Do you suppose they'll hang him like a common criminal for the deaths of the POWs held in his harbor for a year, then turned over to the Inquisition to be tortured to death, or will they give him the noble's option of being beheaded?

I expect that in addition to Claw island, the ICN will also seize Dragon island as its main forward base to attack and keep Dohlar in check. Sharpfield ought to be able to have a fleet roaming Sheimouth passage, since the land on either side will keep him safely out of the sort of storms that caused disaster the last time the ICN decided to set up shop in the Gulf of Dohlar. He's already said that he doesn't want to go too deeply into the Gulf due to possibly violent weather, so he's waiting for the Haarahlds to deal with the eastern Gulf. In the meantime, he'll take South Harchong out of the war.

I honestly don't see Siddarmark invading the Border Lands. This is a war of retribution against the CoGA, not a war of expansion - although I expect that once there are several hundred thousand armed Siddarmarkan troops looming on their borders, some Border States who sent troops to attack Siddarmark may suffer an attack of sanity and vote for annexation. The EoC can take the Temple whenever it wants without invading the Temple Lands! (Although I'll admit conquering them would drastically cut into the CoGA's wealth and hereditary vicarate.)

By the way, the suggestion that ironclads be run down the Great Langhorne canal won't work. The locks are too small, and the ironclads were designed to fit the larger locks used in the new canals of Siddarmark, not the ancient canals built by Shan-wei. They're 15 feet too long. Sorry....

I'm not the slightest bit confused. Never have been, don't see any reason to start now.

Everything done to improve the quality of the Host was done _using_the_excuse_ that they were bottlenecked.

WHY were they in that bottleneck in the first place, when they could have been rerouted 6 weeks earlier, _before_ anyone had a clue that they _needed_ to be trained and re-equipped?

You don't call 1.5 million men forward because you don't think your own army is going to do a good enough job of raping and murdering your defeated enemies. Not when you have to a) feed them and b) discourage them from raping and murdering your undefeated allies, at any rate. You bring them in to commit industrial-scale mayhem on the battlefield, and they're not going to do a lot of that twiddling their thumbs a thousand miles behind the front. So if the planned route becomes infeasible and you have an alternate that is even just acceptable you at least think about using it. If it's actually a good route, it's a no-brainer - you send those 1.5 megamen down it and adjust the rest of your plans accordingly. Hell, as far as that goes, neither Duchairn nor Maigwair are idiots [even if Maigwair does play one on TV occasionally], so it would have been immediately - as in last winter, when the invasion of Siddarmark was being planned - obvious to them that moving and supplying the entire MHOGATA _and_ the AoG over one line of communication is less than optimal when there's at least one good parallel route. They certainly don't give a hoot about the Desnairians' sensibilities, and it was probably obvious from the beginning that they would be 4 months late to the party anyway, so what reason is there not to send the Host, or a good part of it, towards Dairnyth from the get-go?

Was it, perhaps, because there simply isn't a good parallel route?

BTW: reading the above, it occurred to me that it's not at all impossible that Clyntahn did think he was just inviting the Harchongians along for the pillaging - but I very much doubt that the others were that sanguine. However, even if they were that simply makes it even more important to keep what's essentially a hired mob from treading all over the logistics tail of your real fighting army. It wouldn't really even matter if it took them a month or so longer to make the trip.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Louis R,

First of all, let's remember that Magwair and Duchairn made the decision to hold the MHoG at the Langhorne Canal junction area for perfectly good reasons in August [chapter two], to re-equip, retrain, and perhaps most importantly re-officer it; using the logistic bottleneck to give them time to build all their quarters.

At that time Harless still hadn't reached Thesmar, and the Go4's southern theater plan appeared to be unbeatable when they outnumbered Hanth by at least 12-1.

So re-equipping, retraining, and re-officering the MHoGatA were obviously far more important at that time than dispatching any part of the MHoG south.

Now that Harless's AoS is no more, and BGV appears to be potentially destroy Wyrshym or drive him back to Five Forks etc, NTM its still March, the Go4 needs to split the MHoG to meet the threats north and south, hence AGN and AGS.

I hope that clears up your confusion.

L

McGuiness wrote:Cahnyr is as much a mascot and symbol of God's approval as anything else to the Siddarmarkan troops, as well as being one of the two decent archbishops of the CoGA on the planet who are still alive, (Staynair was the other) so if he's going to ride 300 miles in the winter, he's going to get a full military briefing for his troubles. That doesn't mean the briefing will be accurate, since we don't know if there are TLs in his entourage. However, the fact that he "knows" about the Grand Plan also means he won't be anywhere near the battles, and I'm sure his security detail - I mean his "helpful entourage" will be beefed up as well. So unless RFC gets sneaky and something bad happens during Cahnyr's visit...

None of Cahnyr's entourage was in the room for the briefing. Gharth Gorjah was outside the room, so eavesdropping would be possible, but as disinformation campaigns go, that's just leaving too much to chance. Gorjah's loyalty is above question by now, and I can't imagine the CoGA trusting anything coming through him.

I REALLY disagree with leaving Hanth to deal with Dohlar on his own, and this could be RFC misleading Cahnyr. Yes, our latest seijin will probably show up to tell Hanth where Ahlverez is, and capturing men who can barely walk and are starving to death is actually doing them a favor - I just hope that Ahlverez has the brains to surrender before the remnants of his weak, famished, and exhausted army are destroyed. As someone mentioned, if he escapes, his troops will arrive home in no shape to fight for a while, but they'd be the most veteran army that the CoGA has at that point, so there's no sense at all in letting them get away.

They're a small army, and now a cautious one. Sending an emphatic message to Dohlar - "jihad is no good for you at all!" - with a lot of shell-shocked, been-there-done-that troops, which will also remind Dohlar just what they have left to lose, may well accomplish a great deal toward getting Dohlar to back out of the war without having to be occupied by one of those massive garrisons the EoC does not have.

Granted, picking up more of them along the way who can't keep walking is well and good. It will also send the message that, whatever you're hearing from the Temple, "heretics" will still fight an honorable war and can be expected to honor a reasonable truce. You wouldn't quite want that whole army to just disappear that way though. Call those survivors... unwilling Charisian diplomats.

Earl Thirsk certainly came home from Armageddon Reef knowing that Charis wasn't a nation to screw around with, and would offer terms that, if harsh, were also fair and livable. Dohlar may need a reminder that that is all still the case.

With DE headed north anyway, I don't see why he doesn't pause for a few days "rest" and blow the heck out of Evrytyn, especially since all the church's latest weapons are about to be unleashed on the allies there. Meanwhile Hanth, who is undermanned and overstretched is being tasked with stopping everything the entire nation of Dohlar can throw at him. That just doesn't make sense, so obviously RFC hasn't told us something - like the "Grand Plan" was disinformation, or where the final 50,000 ICA troops were sent during the winter! (Doesn't that make their destination pretty obvious?)

I doubt the briefing was disinformation, but yes, those 50,000 troops have to show up somewhere. Keeping Dohlar honest is one fine use, or more generally, making sure the Haven/Howard isthmus (has it a name? it needs one) is an Allied highway and not a Temple one.

I'm glad there are two seijins now, since they're both clearly going to be needed keep DE. HM, Symkyn, and Hanth updated on enemy positions to avoid potential disasters. Frankly, it's high time to bring Hanth into the inner circle so he can handle these sorts of things on his own, without the mistakes that might occur by getting the info secondhand from Merlin or Nimue. I don't know if HM or Symkyn could handle the big reveal, but having four of your five generals out of the loop unless a seijin appears to explain the current situation to them is a disaster waiting to happen. (Although written messages from anonymous seijins are common and accepted in Siddarmark these days...)

Indeed. And Hanth is a flexible fellow from an outfit with longer experience with seijins than most other Allied generals. I think seijin correspondence can do the job. And he's really, really not someone you can sequester for days or weeks to digest the big reveal if need be.

Hanth doesn't have ICA troops that we know of - he has ICN marines and a bunch of drafted sailors, with RSA troops guarding Thesmar. I'm amazed by his remarkable accomplishments so far, but he's stretched so thin with so little guidance that a fairly small Dohlaran army could punch right through his thinly stretched defenses. Fortunately, as far as we know there isn't a Dohlaran force available that could do that - which doesn't mean they won't organize a new one soon. The last 50,000 men en route from Chisholm had better be headed his way - although the fact that Howsmyn sent him several hundred "special" shells since he couldn't send him anything else worries me. (RFC is being quite tricky here...) Make Hanth a member of the inner circle or you're gonna lose him - or he'll eventually be blindsided and driven back.

One reason to be more worried about him is - correct me if I'm wrong - his forces aren't terribly mobile. I don't think they are trained or have the horses to act as mounted infantry, and their artillery tends to be either man-portable stuff on the one end or naval guns - in neither case is that really mobile field artillery.

That's another reason Ahlvarez may be allowed to "get away" - Hanth's ability to pursue him without undue risk may be inadequate.

As for the Grand Plan as laid out to Cahnyr, I don't like it one bit! (Which ought to be a major hint that it's disinformation.) DE ought to help Hanth crush Dohlar and drive it back to its borders, then smash every lock in the Sairhalik Switch canal where it joins the Sheryl - Seridahn canal to severely hamper any troops headed to reinforce Kaitswyrth, especially if a southern contingent of the MHoG is sent in that direction.

It's always easier to pick off your enemy in penny-packets, as RFC has demonstrated over and over again, so I think Symkyn was outlining an unlikely story to our aged but beloved cleric. The last thing the allies want is for thousands of Border Land troops with the latest church rifles to show up and make Kaitswyrth even harder to drive from Aivahnstyn. Flank his lines and slaughter the reinforcements before they arrive. No need to wait - the ICA could actually have its troops in position before the enemy even makes its move, since the ground is frozen. Kaitswyrth would be forced to retreat, since his supply lines would be cut behind him. That, my friends, is probably the grand plan. But knowing RFC, you just never know..

If you can envelope a huge packet, I can't agree that it's always better to take small bites and chew thoroughly. There are just so many Temple troops that taking them in large bites may be the only practical way to handle them - or at least, one plausible alternative, if you can get around them and force them into a choice of starving out or fighting at a serious disadvantage.

Kaitswyrth should soon realize that he has no alternative but to retreat westward, and if he doesn't do it soon, he and his troops will starve. I'm not sure how many people noticed (it's much easier if you use the map that shows the battle movements)...

Oh, tell me you have links? Please?

I honestly don't see Siddarmark invading the Border Lands. This is a war of retribution against the CoGA, not a war of expansion - although I expect that once there are several hundred thousand armed Siddarmarkan troops looming on their borders, some Border States who sent troops to attack Siddarmark may suffer an attack of sanity and vote for annexation. The EoC can take the Temple whenever it wants without invading the Temple Lands! (Although I'll admit conquering them would drastically cut into the CoGA's wealth and hereditary vicarate.)

I don't see Siddarmark as having any interest or ability to conquer Border States - it's got too much on its plate reconquering half its own territory, and occupying what amounts to sullen populations there. And it's hardly necessary - Border States that have suffered armies going through and losses of their own armies with Siddarmark triumphant on their borders will quickly adopt and maintain policies friendly to that neighbor.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

The figures are a little murky because the figures RFC has used have changed from MTaT to LaMA, etc.

Hanth started with some 7500 men, 2/3 sailors in MTaT, but was down to less than 5,000 in LaMA [without any explanation], while Sumyrs had some 5,000 men, the better half of the depleted starved 4-5 regiments of the garrison, while in LaMA he has 7200 men in the dispatch Hanth received, and Fyguera had recruited back up to 7800, which isn't 4-5 full regiments, but totals 20,000 without counting the 2000 ICN gunners or deleting the detachments watching the narrows.

He received the 4th Brigade last November, but it lost a a couple of battalions [infantry and scout snipers] NTM half a 4" artillery battalion for around 2000 casualties from 9-10,000 men for 8200 men; a combined total of 28,200 men; though the textev states over 30,000 men; for which the garrisoning of Thesmar should have required at least 10,000 men when Hanth marched out in the spring, for something close to 20,000.

Hope that helps explain my figuring.

L

Ok. But you still are not counting that detachment from Roymark that knocked out the Cheryk garrison. Depending on how big that force is, I could visualize Hanth with as many as 50,000 men.

Or am I wrong?

Don

McGuiness wrote:
For some reason people keep forgetting that the ICN could have sailed into Temple Bay and taken control of the temple right after AMF. After all, they ruled the seas, their weapons were superior to anything the CoGA could cobble together, and they'd just captured 70 galleons or so that the CoGA could no longer use to attack the ICN - but they made GREAT troop transports, as demonstrated in MTaT and LaMA.

So if RFC had wanted to finish off the series without a mainland war in Siddarmark, it was certainly possible.

Hi McGuiness,

Let’s examine your statement that EOC could have invaded Zion after AMF.

First, there is an asymmetry between Charis and Zion. If Charis had lost the sea battles in OAR, the church would have control of the sea to invade, reinforce and supply their forces. Even if Caleb pulled his forces into the interior of Charis, the church could continue the battle in Charis until they won. This is not true about an EOC invasion of Zion. Temple Bay and Lake Pei both freeze in the winter which would cut all logistical support.

Second, in MTAT, those 70 ships were good enough to transport 26,000 troops and their weapons, wagons, and dragons. In LAMA, Amelyah’s Pride sinks, and one battalion, probably the 2nd, of the 8th Regiment of the 4th Infantry Brigade is lost. Even with all of the EOC ships available, it took 4 transfers to get the ICA to Siddarmark, and it is taking a continuous, year-round, stream of ships to keep the ICA supplied. The last snippet lets us know that even the EOC resources can’t supply more than one winter campaign at a time.

Third, the EOC could not have achieved surprise with an invasion of Zion. Depending on the amount forewarning, the church would be able to at least start moving the AOG to Zion. If the AOG is too far from Zion, the Go4 could have retreated from Zion.

Fourth, taking Zion alone would have been symbolic, but not strategic. It would be like the British burning Washington DC in 1814. It was embarrassing, but didn’t affect the nation’s stability. Even if the controls for the orbital bombing station were in the temple, that wouldn’t change the fact that the war will not be won until forces that the church can command are defeated.

All of the above is implicit in what Duke Eastshare says to Baron Green Valley.

If Stohnar goes down, it’s going to be a disaster for any hope that anyone else on the mainland is going to be willing to defy Clyntahn. But if he doesn’t go down, if he manages to survive, we just may have found the ally we needed to go after the Group of Four on their own ground.

James

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

The figures are a little murky because the figures RFC has used have changed from MTaT to LaMA, etc.

Hanth started with some 7500 men, 2/3 sailors in MTaT, but was down to less than 5,000 in LaMA [without any explanation], while Sumyrs had some 5,000 men, the better half of the depleted starved 4-5 regiments of the garrison, while in LaMA he has 7200 men in the dispatch Hanth received, and Fyguera had recruited back up to 7800, which isn't 4-5 full regiments, but totals 20,000 without counting the 2000 ICN gunners or deleting the detachments watching the narrows.

He received the 4th Brigade last November, but it lost a a couple of battalions [infantry and scout snipers] NTM half a 4" artillery battalion for around 2000 casualties from 9-10,000 men for 8200 men; a combined total of 28,200 men; though the textev states over 30,000 men; for which the garrisoning of Thesmar should have required at least 10,000 men when Hanth marched out in the spring, for something close to 20,000.

Hope that helps explain my figuring.

L

Ok. But you still are not counting that detachment from Roymark that knocked out the Cheryk garrison. Depending on how big that force is, I could visualize Hanth with as many as 50,000 men.

Or am I wrong?

Don

Hi Don,

Here is the source of the troops that took Cheryk. The quote is from Hanth's mental review of action to date.

The 4th Infantry Brigade had brought along its organic mortars and field artillery; two additional batteries of four-inch muzzle-loading rifles had accompanied the same wave of reinforcements; and Hanth had a plenitude — indeed, an excess — of thirty-pounders on field carriages. They’d done him proud in his attack on Cheryk, …

The 4th Infantry Brigade was part of the second sealift that arrived in Siddar city, and then was sent to Thesmar. They lost one battalion, probably the 2nd, of the 8th Regiment, when Amelyah’s Pride was lost in the storm.

James

McGuiness wrote:
Kaitswyrth should soon realize that he has no alternative but to retreat westward, and if he doesn't do it soon, he and his troops will starve. I'm not sure how many people noticed (it's much easier if you use the map that shows the battle movements) but the New Northland Canal is completely intact from Ranshair to Five Forks, as it says in MTaT that its repairs were nearly complete, and that is exactly where we expected BGV to march to after he captures/destroys Wyrshym and the AoSG. So worst case, that leaves him with the army he took through Midhold, the army he left in the Sylmahn Gap, and any ironclads the allies decide to send to Lake Isyk through New Northland canal and on to Lake Maysn, which would cut off Kaitswyrth's northern supply route, and starve any northern contingent of the MHoG.

Hi McGuiness,

BGV is just too far from Kaitswyrth to be an immediate threat. I haven’t looked it up, but I though Kaitswyrth was being supplied through Dairnyth and the Charayn canal. At the current time Kaitswyrth has plenty of supplies. Here is Duchairn’s thoughts on Kaitswyrth’s supplies.

For that matter, we could afford to lose Cliff Peak a lot better than we could afford to lose Hildermoss. And Kaitswyrth’s supply lines are in better shape. We could move fresh troops more rapidly to respond to an attack there than anywhere else. So if we have to run a risk somewhere — which, obviously, we do — risking Kaitswyrth probably does make more sense. I only wish I had more faith in his ability to hold his ground. After what Eastshare did to him last summer, though . . .

I thought that the New Northland was undamaged, until is read the following in LAMA regarding the transport of coal.

Tarikah’s coal traditionally came from Glacierheart and the Ice Ash Mountains via the New Northland Canal and the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal, both of which had suffered significant damage from the Sword of Schueler during the Rising. When they’d been put back into operation , they’d been needed to supply Wyrshym’s own advance; and then the heretics had smashed the entire Guarnak -Ice Ash and the critical western locks of the New Northland.

As for the repair of the canals, here is the last status that we had in LAMA.

“How long to replace the locks we’ve already lost, at least between here and Guarnak, using this new technique of yours?” Maigwair asked intently. “That depends on whether or not we’ll be able to work through the winter months,” Duchairn said frankly. “If we are, and assuming I manage to get the necessary supplies moved forward, we should have the entire canal between East Wing Lake and Guarnak up and running again by the end of March. The problem is that I doubt we will be able to work through the coldest months, and Father Tailahr says it’s less likely prefabricated locks are going to be as effective in the rivers. Assuming we essentially have to shut down between early November and the end of February, it’s going to be mid-April, at least, before we can have all of the canal system you need open again. Once we start getting into warmer weather, we’ll be able to work faster; otherwise, I’d be estimating early May.”

Notice the western locks of the New Northland aren’t mentioned. We don’t know if they have been repaired. We don’t know enough about the New Northland’s water flow to know whether the new Rivers can enter the canal from Ranshair and travel west until they get to the broken locks.

James

Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos for an excellent post!

My main quibble is that while Siddarmark certainly wouldn't want the nuisance of being responsible for the Border States and all their obvious problems, it is no longer bound by the temple's restrictions on its military, so the BS will obviously need to accommodate to the new power equation especially post-war and the republic's new motto "Never Again", because the RoS is going to come out of this war far more powerful than ever before and the rest of Haven and Howard had better realise that real soon.

The Republic may only want the power to fully defend itself in the future, but its not operating in a vacuum.

Letting Clyntahn live and see how all that he opposed is prospering may be the worst punishment possible for him, anything less may be too quick.

The allied victories and westward advances to come certainly mean most of the respective aristocrats will naturally flee, along with almost all the ex-Siddarmark TL's who fear the RoS knows what they did [I expect the inquisitors kept very good records], the levelers may stay despite being tainted by their brothers' stupidity in the RoS, along with most of the serfs and reformist middle class etc, so the stage will be set for all the BS feudal grants to 'reformat' into republics modeled on Siddarmark of course, however well or poorly they work they will be dominated by their far more powerful eastern neighbor that may leave garrisons in the worst run ones besides the allies controlling and reorganizing the eastern KotTL's.

Some 'knight's grants' or territories, like the Wylsynn's, may not need to free the serf's or have rather few, whatever they're called; but others may require more direct and close supervision in liberating them, and possibly providing '200 acres and a dragon' etc.

Power does beget responsibilities.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

McGuiness wrote:Cahnyr is as much a mascot and symbol of God's approval as anything else to the Siddarmarkan troops, as well as being one of the two decent archbishops of the CoGA on the planet who are still alive, (Staynair was the other) so if he's going to ride 300 miles in the winter, he's going to get a full military briefing for his troubles. That doesn't mean the briefing will be accurate, since we don't know if there are TLs in his entourage. However, the fact that he "knows" about the Grand Plan also means he won't be anywhere near the battles, and I'm sure his security detail - I mean his "helpful entourage" will be beefed up as well. So unless RFC gets sneaky and something bad happens during Cahnyr's visit...

None of Cahnyr's entourage was in the room for the briefing. Gharth Gorjah was outside the room, so eavesdropping would be possible, but as disinformation campaigns go, that's just leaving too much to chance. Gorjah's loyalty is above question by now, and I can't imagine the CoGA trusting anything coming through him.

I REALLY disagree with leaving Hanth to deal with Dohlar on his own, and this could be RFC misleading Cahnyr. Yes, our latest seijin will probably show up to tell Hanth where Ahlverez is, and capturing men who can barely walk and are starving to death is actually doing them a favor - I just hope that Ahlverez has the brains to surrender before the remnants of his weak, famished, and exhausted army are destroyed. As someone mentioned, if he escapes, his troops will arrive home in no shape to fight for a while, but they'd be the most veteran army that the CoGA has at that point, so there's no sense at all in letting them get away.

They're a small army, and now a cautious one. Sending an emphatic message to Dohlar - "jihad is no good for you at all!" - with a lot of shell-shocked, been-there-done-that troops, which will also remind Dohlar just what they have left to lose, may well accomplish a great deal toward getting Dohlar to back out of the war without having to be occupied by one of those massive garrisons the EoC does not have.

Granted, picking up more of them along the way who can't keep walking is well and good. It will also send the message that, whatever you're hearing from the Temple, "heretics" will still fight an honorable war and can be expected to honor a reasonable truce. You wouldn't quite want that whole army to just disappear that way though. Call those survivors... unwilling Charisian diplomats.

Earl Thirsk certainly came home from Armageddon Reef knowing that Charis wasn't a nation to screw around with, and would offer terms that, if harsh, were also fair and livable. Dohlar may need a reminder that that is all still the case.

With DE headed north anyway, I don't see why he doesn't pause for a few days "rest" and blow the heck out of Evrytyn, especially since all the church's latest weapons are about to be unleashed on the allies there. Meanwhile Hanth, who is undermanned and overstretched is being tasked with stopping everything the entire nation of Dohlar can throw at him. That just doesn't make sense, so obviously RFC hasn't told us something - like the "Grand Plan" was disinformation, or where the final 50,000 ICA troops were sent during the winter! (Doesn't that make their destination pretty obvious?)

I doubt the briefing was disinformation, but yes, those 50,000 troops have to show up somewhere. Keeping Dohlar honest is one fine use, or more generally, making sure the Haven/Howard isthmus (has it a name? it needs one) is an Allied highway and not a Temple one.

I'm glad there are two seijins now, since they're both clearly going to be needed keep DE. HM, Symkyn, and Hanth updated on enemy positions to avoid potential disasters. Frankly, it's high time to bring Hanth into the inner circle so he can handle these sorts of things on his own, without the mistakes that might occur by getting the info secondhand from Merlin or Nimue. I don't know if HM or Symkyn could handle the big reveal, but having four of your five generals out of the loop unless a seijin appears to explain the current situation to them is a disaster waiting to happen. (Although written messages from anonymous seijins are common and accepted in Siddarmark these days...)

Indeed. And Hanth is a flexible fellow from an outfit with longer experience with seijins than most other Allied generals. I think seijin correspondence can do the job. And he's really, really not someone you can sequester for days or weeks to digest the big reveal if need be.

Hanth doesn't have ICA troops that we know of - he has ICN marines and a bunch of drafted sailors, with RSA troops guarding Thesmar. I'm amazed by his remarkable accomplishments so far, but he's stretched so thin with so little guidance that a fairly small Dohlaran army could punch right through his thinly stretched defenses. Fortunately, as far as we know there isn't a Dohlaran force available that could do that - which doesn't mean they won't organize a new one soon. The last 50,000 men en route from Chisholm had better be headed his way - although the fact that Howsmyn sent him several hundred "special" shells since he couldn't send him anything else worries me. (RFC is being quite tricky here...) Make Hanth a member of the inner circle or you're gonna lose him - or he'll eventually be blindsided and driven back.

One reason to be more worried about him is - correct me if I'm wrong - his forces aren't terribly mobile. I don't think they are trained or have the horses to act as mounted infantry, and their artillery tends to be either man-portable stuff on the one end or naval guns - in neither case is that really mobile field artillery.

That's another reason Ahlvarez may be allowed to "get away" - Hanth's ability to pursue him without undue risk may be inadequate.

As for the Grand Plan as laid out to Cahnyr, I don't like it one bit! (Which ought to be a major hint that it's disinformation.) DE ought to help Hanth crush Dohlar and drive it back to its borders, then smash every lock in the Sairhalik Switch canal where it joins the Sheryl - Seridahn canal to severely hamper any troops headed to reinforce Kaitswyrth, especially if a southern contingent of the MHoG is sent in that direction.

It's always easier to pick off your enemy in penny-packets, as RFC has demonstrated over and over again, so I think Symkyn was outlining an unlikely story to our aged but beloved cleric. The last thing the allies want is for thousands of Border Land troops with the latest church rifles to show up and make Kaitswyrth even harder to drive from Aivahnstyn. Flank his lines and slaughter the reinforcements before they arrive. No need to wait - the ICA could actually have its troops in position before the enemy even makes its move, since the ground is frozen. Kaitswyrth would be forced to retreat, since his supply lines would be cut behind him. That, my friends, is probably the grand plan. But knowing RFC, you just never know..

If you can envelope a huge packet, I can't agree that it's always better to take small bites and chew thoroughly. There are just so many Temple troops that taking them in large bites may be the only practical way to handle them - or at least, one plausible alternative, if you can get around them and force them into a choice of starving out or fighting at a serious disadvantage.

Kaitswyrth should soon realize that he has no alternative but to retreat westward, and if he doesn't do it soon, he and his troops will starve. I'm not sure how many people noticed (it's much easier if you use the map that shows the battle movements)...

Oh, tell me you have links? Please?

I honestly don't see Siddarmark invading the Border Lands. This is a war of retribution against the CoGA, not a war of expansion - although I expect that once there are several hundred thousand armed Siddarmarkan troops looming on their borders, some Border States who sent troops to attack Siddarmark may suffer an attack of sanity and vote for annexation. The EoC can take the Temple whenever it wants without invading the Temple Lands! (Although I'll admit conquering them would drastically cut into the CoGA's wealth and hereditary vicarate.)

I don't see Siddarmark as having any interest or ability to conquer Border States - it's got too much on its plate reconquering half its own territory, and occupying what amounts to sullen populations there. And it's hardly necessary - Border States that have suffered armies going through and losses of their own armies with Siddarmark triumphant on their borders will quickly adopt and maintain policies friendly to that neighbor.