HFQ Official Snippet #28

Hi Larry,

"Very interesting."

But there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, Earl Hanth can't move half as fast as you seem to think, NTM he has less than 30,000 men including the garrison of Thesmar [~10,000?] without further word of where the 50,000+ men who left Port Royal at the end of September went.

Personally, I think taking the Salthar canal would be a better immediate use for them than reinforcing Hanth, but that's RFC's decision.

Pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlar [while Ahlverez retreats into it] may be the most he can do.

Pushing on all the way to Dairnyth with only ~20,000 men is not a wise move, even if he took it, he probably couldn't hold it at the end of such a long supply line; ie while Sharpfield may control the western gulf of Dohlar, we have no indication he has the supplies or means to keep Hanth in Dairnyth, however advantageous that might be at that time, nor would it be that wise with even 70-80,000 men against at least ~750-800,000 men of AGS.

Secondly, "desecrating" now arable land would be a major negative for the alliance, a real 'no-no' that would anger everyone on Safehold regardless of who they follow, the temple or the CoC.

Besides its not necessary.

As you may recall from MTaT, Safehold and Siddarmark in particular could support some `13+ [maybe 13.5] people per square mile before the SoS.

An army marching 40 miles per day through land the Go4 controls could be ordered to bring food to the army from the nearest 3200 square miles or what supports 43,200 over a year; that just over the equivalent of 13 million daily rations [301 days].

That sounds like a lot, and while technically that's enough to for the whole MHoG for a day or even two if 25% of the people aren't there any more, there's a problem with that detail.

Unless the 75% remaining farmers [assuming that's the ratio of TL's to RoS patriots in the west] can increase their efficiency or ability to farm by 33%, they aren't going to maintain the same amount of food produced before the SoS; ie they could only farm 75% of the land given the same time and manpower limits as before, but that doesn't include all the Charisian agricultural equipment destroyed because of its supposed taint, even if it was approved 20 years ago.

This means the locals will be struggling to support themselves, so there won't be any surplus [especially 6+ month's after the harvest] that an 800.000 man army which suddenly had its supply line cut could use without inevitably starving the temple loyalists, possibly forcing them to leave to find enough food, or raid the
MHoG etc.

For example, 3/5 through the year, there might be enough for 1.6 whole days for the whole MHoG if they wanted to immediately starve all the local TL's, but even that figure assumes they would have access to all 3200 square miles when the allied force they face should reduce that down to 1.6 days at the end of May, and 1.2 days by the end of June, and 0.8 days at the end of July [probably the most likely time period]; so if its delayed until August 30 [possible], it'll be only 0.4 days maximum.

Rhobair warned about what that would result in back in MTaT,though some might consider this their just desserts.

While supplies from the next 40 miles or 2 days travel away can be brought in, the communications and organization required in such an emergency to keep all from starving could easily fail with catastrophic results.

Obviously the MHoG is even further dependent upon the canals for its food and fodder than the AoG, ie 800,000 men and some 160-200,000 horses requires 1200 tons of food minimum [without considering cooking oil and fuel etc], and 2400-3000 tons of fodder every day or 3+ barges every day, so holding those towns is unnecessary and a waste of those armies' time when they could be more productively destroying the enemy.

Cutting the supply route behind the AGN can be achieved several ways as I've suggested, which RFC has chosen will have to wait for October 13 for us to find out.

Again, we may see BGV steaming up the Zion river by the end of HFQ.

L

Larry wrote:SPOILERS, SPOILERS, Although if your reading a snippet response I assume you have read the snippet, so probably not spoilers for you.

OK, while I think the whole group of you are getting excessively trusting with our favorite author, I am willing to go with the flow for the moment. In addition, as I do this, let us assume wildly successful victories over the spring and summer and look at where the ICA “Might” (And notice I stress might as I think the following is wildly optimistic) be by the fall.
Assume first that pulling Duke Eastshare North and a bit of tactical dawdling by Earl Hanth allows Ahlverez and his gaunt troops through. This means there are no more Temple forces behind the alliance lines and given the supply situation with Dohler, probably means that most of those troops are thrown back to Dohler to rest and refit. If Earl Hanth then slams the door behind them by taking Alykberg and the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal (as well as Dairnyth) then effectively that seals off Dohlor, Desnair, and South Harchong for the nonce. I actually assume that is where the missing 50,000 troops are headed. Let them stew down there for now.
Once Kaitswyrth is demolished Earl Hanth then turns west and secures the border down near the Charayn Canal and S. Daivyn River. With no good High Roads or river/canal routes in, the southern and western sides of South March and Cliff Peak are now secure. Meanwhile the Armys of the Daivyn and the Army of the Branths moves north and establishes a line along the N. Daivyn River and Sair-Selyk Canal with strong points at Selyk, Blufftyn and Sairmeet. Burn everything you can reach west of that line and deconsecrate it as much as possible. Turn it into a logistical wasteland that the other side has to cross with his lousier logistics. Destroy and mine all of the High Road into Selyk west of the N. Daivyn River and all of the High Road from St. Vyrdyn into Blufftyn west of the Sair-Selyk Canal and you leave nothing but cross country travel for a counter-attacking great host with no good supply lines. This seals the center.
Finally Baron Green Valley and his forces March west through the summer rolling up Bishop Militant Wyrhsym’s tail forces and ending the season in Lake City in the fall. This gives control of East and West Wing Lakes, the upper end of the Holy Langhorn and with a force of river ironclads that should nail down the north. It also likely that the Holy Langhorn is going to seem like the most supportable route of advance to the Gang of Four, so putting the guy with the best surveillance network at that end seems logical.
Is it doable? Probably not. The Mighty Host will be hitting the field sometime this summer and it is hard to tell what the church will do with it if Baron Green Valley rolls up Wyrhsym hard enough and Clynthon panics. That is the first crisis the Gang of Four is going to know about and if the CoGA sends its forces north in response, the Northern campaign could get nasty. On the other hand, the church will come to regret that hasty move, if it sends the bulk of its forces north given that that will be the most inhospitable and locked down terrain for them to be trapped in when winter comes.

Larry

We realise that you're married to the idea of the southern route. In fact, you've nailed yourself to it's mast, staked yourself out before it and generally made it clear just how fond you are of the notion.

However, have you never asked yourself _why_ your putative AGS hasn't already arrived at Dairnyth? Most, if not all, the Host was still back on the Bedard Canal when the Raid occurred. Much of it was still there when it was decided to hold them there for the winter - long before it would have become impossible to move them south and, at the very least, simplify the barracks construction problem. Heck, down on the Bay of Bess they could probably have made do with the tents they already had with them. [one assumes that they have tents, which I admit may be a bit optimistic at least for the other ranks]. The key point, however, is that when the implications of the raid were realised in Zion, it would have been trivial to reroute much or all of the Host to South March and by your projections they should have reached it no later than the Desnairians did. A decision that would have been made long, long before anybody in Zion had worked through the implications of the new military technology and tactics deployed by the ICA - IOW, before Kaitswyrth got his clock wiped - and realised that the Host wasn't going to be of any real use without new equipment and proper training.

So, if it's such a great route, where are they?

lyonheart wrote:Hi Larry,

"Very interesting."

But there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, Earl Hanth can't move half as fast as you seem to think, NTM he has less than 30,000 men including the garrison of Thesmar [~10,000?] without further word of where the 50,000+ men who left Port Royal at the end of September went.

Personally, I think taking the Salthar canal would be a better immediate use for them than reinforcing Hanth, but that's RFC's decision.

Pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlar [while Ahlverez retreats into it] may be the most he can do.

Pushing on all the way to Dairnyth with only ~20,000 men is not a wise move, even if he took it, he probably couldn't hold it at the end of such a long supply line; ie while Sharpfield may control the western gulf of Dohlar, we have no indication he has the supplies or means to keep Hanth in Dairnyth, however advantageous that might be at that time, nor would it be that wise with even 70-80,000 men against at least ~750-800,000 men of AGS.

< snip >

Louis R wrote:Those who are not students of the subject find it difficult to grasp just how complete the disconnect between science and technology was before the mid-20th century. I see that often in comments here, along with the equally false assumption that technology and its evolution are a unified whole: if you don't have A, you can't possibly have B because B is 'more advanced'. In fact, the general rule is that B appeared later than A because the first 3 guys [at least 5 or whom are unrecorded] who thought of B couldn't see any earthly use for it. Then you get the fact that the next 8 were too busy to pursue it, and another half dozen didn't quite get it to work reliably, while A, when it was thought of a century later, got lucky and was sorted out in a generation.

Well said! Although I don't think the precise quote is known, Faraday's reply to Gladstone is a lovely example of this.

When asked in 1850 by William Gladstone, then British Chancellor of the Exchequer (minister of finance) what was the practical value of electricity, Faraday's purported reply was "Why, sir, there is every probability that you will soon be able to tax it."

And if you delve back into the archives of science, you find numerous examples of people who so nearly made seminal discoveries. Newland's Law of Octaves nearly anticipated Mendeleev's discovery of the Periodic Table, for example. You could argue that nothing holds up science so much as the right idea at the wrong time.

Louis R wrote:

We realise that you're married to the idea of the southern route. In fact, you've nailed yourself to it's mast, staked yourself out before it and generally made it clear just how fond you are of the notion.

Your caricature of lyonheart's argument makes it difficult to argue against it, but I suppose that's why you wrote it that way. Still yet, there's a lot of the contrarian in me, so I'm going to proceed anyway, to the detriment of the discussion.

On the one hand, Harless was about 93% destroyed, Kaitsworth was about 60% destroyed, and Wyrshym is almost undamaged. He did have some losses retreating up the Sylmahn Gap, and sent some back to be retrained, but still...on the theory that you reinforce your successes, that would suggest that both Army Group North and Army Group South would go to Wyrshym.

On the other hand, if Charis is given free rein in the South then the Church of God Awaiting looses both Dohlar and Desnair. On the theory that you conserve your forces to fight again later, that would suggest that Army Group South would go to Rychter.

Now, having argued both ways I find I've shed no light on the situation. I turn to storytelling...if Army Group South goes South then Sharpfield has a vital job to perform, shutting down Army Group South's communications. Otherwise, Sharpfield has the less-vital job of shutting Thirsk down.

On balance, I think Army Group South's going South.

~Tonto

lyonheart wrote:Hi Larry,

"Very interesting."

But there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, Earl Hanth can't move half as fast as you seem to think, NTM he has less than 30,000 men including the garrison of Thesmar [~10,000?] without further word of where the 50,000+ men who left Port Royal at the end of September went.

Personally, I think taking the Salthar canal would be a better immediate use for them than reinforcing Hanth, but that's RFC's decision.

Pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlar [while Ahlverez retreats into it] may be the most he can do.

Pushing on all the way to Dairnyth with only ~20,000 men is not a wise move, even if he took it, he probably couldn't hold it at the end of such a long supply line; ie while Sharpfield may control the western gulf of Dohlar, we have no indication he has the supplies or means to keep Hanth in Dairnyth, however advantageous that might be at that time, nor would it be that wise with even 70-80,000 men against at least ~750-800,000 men of AGS.

Secondly, "desecrating" now arable land would be a major negative for the alliance, a real 'no-no' that would anger everyone on Safehold regardless of who they follow, the temple or the CoC.

Besides its not necessary.

As you may recall from MTaT, Safehold and Siddarmark in particular could support some `13+ [maybe 13.5] people per square mile before the SoS.

An army marching 40 miles per day through land the Go4 controls could be ordered to bring food to the army from the nearest 3200 square miles or what supports 43,200 over a year; that just over the equivalent of 13 million daily rations [301 days].

That sounds like a lot, and while technically that's enough to for the whole MHoG for a day or even two if 25% of the people aren't there any more, there's a problem with that detail.

Unless the 75% remaining farmers [assuming that's the ratio of TL's to RoS patriots in the west] can increase their efficiency or ability to farm by 33%, they aren't going to maintain the same amount of food produced before the SoS; ie they could only farm 75% of the land given the same time and manpower limits as before, but that doesn't include all the Charisian agricultural equipment destroyed because of its supposed taint, even if it was approved 20 years ago.

This means the locals will be struggling to support themselves, so there won't be any surplus [especially 6+ month's after the harvest] that an 800.000 man army which suddenly had its supply line cut could use without inevitably starving the temple loyalists, possibly forcing them to leave to find enough food, or raid the
MHoG etc.

For example, 3/5 through the year, there might be enough for 1.6 whole days for the whole MHoG if they wanted to immediately starve all the local TL's, but even that figure assumes they would have access to all 3200 square miles when the allied force they face should reduce that down to 1.6 days at the end of May, and 1.2 days by the end of June, and 0.8 days at the end of July [probably the most likely time period]; so if its delayed until August 30 [possible], it'll be only 0.4 days maximum.

Rhobair warned about what that would result in back in MTaT,though some might consider this their just desserts.

While supplies from the next 40 miles or 2 days travel away can be brought in, the communications and organization required in such an emergency to keep all from starving could easily fail with catastrophic results.

Obviously the MHoG is even further dependent upon the canals for its food and fodder than the AoG, ie 800,000 men and some 160-200,000 horses requires 1200 tons of food minimum [without considering cooking oil and fuel etc], and 2400-3000 tons of fodder every day or 3+ barges every day, so holding those towns is unnecessary and a waste of those armies' time when they could be more productively destroying the enemy.

Cutting the supply route behind the AGN can be achieved several ways as I've suggested, which RFC has chosen will have to wait for October 13 for us to find out.

Again, we may see BGV steaming up the Zion river by the end of HFQ.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

Nice post, but I think a minor nit. Are you sure that Hanth only has 20,000 men? We do have textev for a force that marched from Roymark to Cheryk, knocking out the TL garrison withou slowing down. My presumption is that these are reinforcements for Hanth. My contention here would be that we really don't know how many soldiers Hanth has since we have no detail on this force or any other that Hanth has received.

Don

awesome RFC - thank you so much

Hi Louis R,

First of all, let's remember that Magwair and Duchairn made the decision to hold the MHoG at the Langhorne Canal junction area for perfectly good reasons in August [chapter two], to re-equip, retrain, and perhaps most importantly re-officer it; using the logistic bottleneck to give them time to build all their quarters.

At that time Harless still hadn't reached Thesmar, and the Go4's southern theater plan appeared to be unbeatable when they outnumbered Hanth by at least 12-1.

So re-equipping, retraining, and re-officering the MHoGatA were obviously far more important at that time than dispatching any part of the MHoG south.

Now that Harless's AoS is no more, and BGV appears to be potentially destroy Wyrshym or drive him back to Five Forks etc, NTM its still March, the Go4 needs to split the MHoG to meet the threats north and south, hence AGN and AGS.

I hope that clears up your confusion.

L

Louis R wrote:We realise that you're married to the idea of the southern route. In fact, you've nailed yourself to it's mast, staked yourself out before it and generally made it clear just how fond you are of the notion.

However, have you never asked yourself _why_ your putative AGS hasn't already arrived at Dairnyth? Most, if not all, the Host was still back on the Bedard Canal when the Raid occurred. Much of it was still there when it was decided to hold them there for the winter - long before it would have become impossible to move them south and, at the very least, simplify the barracks construction problem. Heck, down on the Bay of Bess they could probably have made do with the tents they already had with them. [one assumes that they have tents, which I admit may be a bit optimistic at least for the other ranks]. The key point, however, is that when the implications of the raid were realised in Zion, it would have been trivial to reroute much or all of the Host to South March and by your projections they should have reached it no later than the Desnairians did. A decision that would have been made long, long before anybody in Zion had worked through the implications of the new military technology and tactics deployed by the ICA - IOW, before Kaitswyrth got his clock wiped - and realised that the Host wasn't going to be of any real use without new equipment and proper training.

So, if it's such a great route, where are they?

lyonheart wrote:Hi Larry,

"Very interesting."

But there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, Earl Hanth can't move half as fast as you seem to think, NTM he has less than 30,000 men including the garrison of Thesmar [~10,000?] without further word of where the 50,000+ men who left Port Royal at the end of September went.

Personally, I think taking the Salthar canal would be a better immediate use for them than reinforcing Hanth, but that's RFC's decision.

Pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlar [while Ahlverez retreats into it] may be the most he can do.

Pushing on all the way to Dairnyth with only ~20,000 men is not a wise move, even if he took it, he probably couldn't hold it at the end of such a long supply line; ie while Sharpfield may control the western gulf of Dohlar, we have no indication he has the supplies or means to keep Hanth in Dairnyth, however advantageous that might be at that time, nor would it be that wise with even 70-80,000 men against at least ~750-800,000 men of AGS.

< snip >

Hi Tonto Silerheels,

Thanks very much for the defense, yet we need to clarify a few things.

Kaitswyrth's casualties from DE were some 29,000 of the 100,000 men Duchairn said he had at the end of MTaT [not counting the 50,000 TL militia], plus the 11,300 he suffered to Brigadier Taisyn, for ~40% of his AoG force.

BGV captured 9,000+ rifles from Wyrshym, about a third of what he'd have with ~36 divisions, plus presumably similar losses among his pikes that made up 50% of each company, along with 2-3 dozen operable cannon, not insubstantial losses.

Personally, I figured the AoG might reasonably attempt another massive pike attack/ambush during their retreat up the Sylmahn Gap on a dark, stormy and very rainy night [since it worked the last time they tried it]; only to discover the Mahndrayn worked just fine etc, to raise their losses even higher, but there's no such textev.

Both armies suffered severe losses to their morale, which Napoleon said was three times as important as the physical, which helps explain why they've been effectively paralyzed since early August.

Sharpfield isn't supposed to dwell in the eastern gulf of Dohlar, but his schooners could certainly play hob with the AGS's supplies, if they March from the Sabana River mouth, or if they barge all the way over to Dairnyth in the Bay of Bess and beyond, they'd make fine targets.

L

Tonto Silerheels wrote:Louis R wrote:

We realise that you're married to the idea of the southern route. In fact, you've nailed yourself to it's mast, staked yourself out before it and generally made it clear just how fond you are of the notion.

Your caricature of lyonheart's argument makes it difficult to argue against it, but I suppose that's why you wrote it that way. Still yet, there's a lot of the contrarian in me, so I'm going to proceed anyway, to the detriment of the discussion.

On the one hand, Harless was about 93% destroyed, Kaitsworth was about 60% destroyed, and Wyrshym is almost undamaged. He did have some losses retreating up the Sylmahn Gap, and sent some back to be retrained, but still...on the theory that you reinforce your successes, that would suggest that both Army Group North and Army Group South would go to Wyrshym.

On the other hand, if Charis is given free rein in the South then the Church of God Awaiting looses both Dohlar and Desnair. On the theory that you conserve your forces to fight again later, that would suggest that Army Group South would go to Rychter.

Now, having argued both ways I find I've shed no light on the situation. I turn to storytelling...if Army Group South goes South then Sharpfield has a vital job to perform, shutting down Army Group South's communications. Otherwise, Sharpfield has the less-vital job of shutting Thirsk down.

On balance, I think Army Group South's going South.

~Tonto

Hi Don,

The figures are a little murky because the figures RFC has used have changed from MTaT to LaMA, etc.

Hanth started with some 7500 men, 2/3 sailors in MTaT, but was down to less than 5,000 in LaMA [without any explanation], while Sumyrs had some 5,000 men, the better half of the depleted starved 4-5 regiments of the garrison, while in LaMA he has 7200 men in the dispatch Hanth received, and Fyguera had recruited back up to 7800, which isn't 4-5 full regiments, but totals 20,000 without counting the 2000 ICN gunners or deleting the detachments watching the narrows.

He received the 4th Brigade last November, but it lost a a couple of battalions [infantry and scout snipers] NTM half a 4" artillery battalion for around 2000 casualties from 9-10,000 men for 8200 men; a combined total of 28,200 men; though the textev states over 30,000 men; for which the garrisoning of Thesmar should have required at least 10,000 men when Hanth marched out in the spring, for something close to 20,000.

Hope that helps explain my figuring.

L

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Larry,

"Very interesting."

But there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

First, Earl Hanth can't move half as fast as you seem to think, NTM he has less than 30,000 men including the garrison of Thesmar [~10,000?] without further word of where the 50,000+ men who left Port Royal at the end of September went.

Personally, I think taking the Salthar canal would be a better immediate use for them than reinforcing Hanth, but that's RFC's decision.

Pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlar [while Ahlverez retreats into it] may be the most he can do.

Pushing on all the way to Dairnyth with only ~20,000 men is not a wise move, even if he took it, he probably couldn't hold it at the end of such a long supply line; ie while Sharpfield may control the western gulf of Dohlar, we have no indication he has the supplies or means to keep Hanth in Dairnyth, however advantageous that might be at that time, nor would it be that wise with even 70-80,000 men against at least ~750-800,000 men of AGS.

Secondly, "desecrating" now arable land would be a major negative for the alliance, a real 'no-no' that would anger everyone on Safehold regardless of who they follow, the temple or the CoC.

Besides its not necessary.

As you may recall from MTaT, Safehold and Siddarmark in particular could support some `13+ [maybe 13.5] people per square mile before the SoS.

An army marching 40 miles per day through land the Go4 controls could be ordered to bring food to the army from the nearest 3200 square miles or what supports 43,200 over a year; that just over the equivalent of 13 million daily rations [301 days].

That sounds like a lot, and while technically that's enough to for the whole MHoG for a day or even two if 25% of the people aren't there any more, there's a problem with that detail.

Unless the 75% remaining farmers [assuming that's the ratio of TL's to RoS patriots in the west] can increase their efficiency or ability to farm by 33%, they aren't going to maintain the same amount of food produced before the SoS; ie they could only farm 75% of the land given the same time and manpower limits as before, but that doesn't include all the Charisian agricultural equipment destroyed because of its supposed taint, even if it was approved 20 years ago.

This means the locals will be struggling to support themselves, so there won't be any surplus [especially 6+ month's after the harvest] that an 800.000 man army which suddenly had its supply line cut could use without inevitably starving the temple loyalists, possibly forcing them to leave to find enough food, or raid the
MHoG etc.

For example, 3/5 through the year, there might be enough for 1.6 whole days for the whole MHoG if they wanted to immediately starve all the local TL's, but even that figure assumes they would have access to all 3200 square miles when the allied force they face should reduce that down to 1.6 days at the end of May, and 1.2 days by the end of June, and 0.8 days at the end of July [probably the most likely time period]; so if its delayed until August 30 [possible], it'll be only 0.4 days maximum.

Rhobair warned about what that would result in back in MTaT,though some might consider this their just desserts.

While supplies from the next 40 miles or 2 days travel away can be brought in, the communications and organization required in such an emergency to keep all from starving could easily fail with catastrophic results.

Obviously the MHoG is even further dependent upon the canals for its food and fodder than the AoG, ie 800,000 men and some 160-200,000 horses requires 1200 tons of food minimum [without considering cooking oil and fuel etc], and 2400-3000 tons of fodder every day or 3+ barges every day, so holding those towns is unnecessary and a waste of those armies' time when they could be more productively destroying the enemy.

Cutting the supply route behind the AGN can be achieved several ways as I've suggested, which RFC has chosen will have to wait for October 13 for us to find out.

Again, we may see BGV steaming up the Zion river by the end of HFQ.

L

Hi Lyonheart,

Nice post, but I think a minor nit. Are you sure that Hanth only has 20,000 men? We do have textev for a force that marched from Roymark to Cheryk, knocking out the TL garrison withou slowing down. My presumption is that these are reinforcements for Hanth. My contention here would be that we really don't know how many soldiers Hanth has since we have no detail on this force or any other that Hanth has received.

Don

I've read all of the discussion about informing the archbishop about the upcoming plans, and there is one possibility that was not mentioned - and it is in keeping with RFC's devious qualities.

If one of the archbishop's entourage is a TL (and remember his assistant acted as an informant for the Inquisition for years as a double (or would that be triple) agent) or can be convinced to act as a TL and the allies know it, then explaining the plans would seem to be a way to get them to the Temple, which would then do the appropriate things to screw them up. Then you change plans when they are out of position, and hammer them from an unexpected angle.

After all, the Temple has played the mis-information game, why shouldn't the EOC.

JHust a thought