HFQ Official Snippet #28

The reasons to worry on Charis' part from readers having heard the plan are two:
First, narratively, a plan that works out just as previously sketched is unusual - it's a bit redundant for the reader. So you expect to have undescribed plans go perfectly and described ones go off the rails.

The reason that previously undescribed plans work they way they were planned to work is usually because history can be more flexible when no one knows what you meant to do in the first place. As in, yes I meant to build that 3 legged square table and other such plans that have gone awry.

Second, it is a complicated plan and that sort is even more likely to go belly-up when the enemy arrives.

Is Baldrick in the room?

It seems to me that there is an element in all of this that while it's not nevessarily time critical, still makes time somewhat important. They do need to come to grips with Kaitswryth and finish the business rather than taking the whole campaign season to do it. The same is true for BGV and the Army of the Salmahn. Both campaigns are a clearing of the deck for dealing with the Harchongese.

Don

n7axw wrote:It seems to me that there is an element in all of this that while it's not nevessarily time critical, still makes time somewhat important. They do need to come to grips with Kaitswryth and finish the business rather than taking the whole campaign season to do it. The same is true for BGV and the Army of the Salmahn. Both campaigns are a clearing of the deck for dealing with the Harchongese.

Don

I believe this is somewhat time sensitive. Not for coordinating against Kaitswyrth, but to lock down the canals before the GH begin moving. If you will notice the dispositions, DE is moving to position himself north of Kaitswyrth and EHM is approaching from the south. Even so, they are not the hammer to crush Kaitswyrth. That is up to Symkyns. Why?

I suspect that the approaches from the South and North are the primary dispositions the ICA will take to address the GH. High Mount approaches from the South and secures the locks along the Charayn Canal and Daivyn river. Eastshare will position blocking forces north of Aivahnstyn and send his more mobile forces to secure the North Daivyn and as far north as they can get. I suspect that BGV will get to lakeside and Sairmeet by the time DE gets to Selyk and Blufftyn.

After Kaitswyrth has been suitably dealt with EHM heads south and takes Dairnyth. Hanth kicks Rychtyr's butt back to Dohlar and follows along the Sheryl-Sheridahn. Silkiah will have either fallen or flipped to that last 50,000 troop ICA contingent from Cherayth in that August departure. Iron clads begin filtering into Salthar Bay and wreaking havoc along the Dohlar coast. The KH VIIs arrive at last as Thirsk deploys much of his forces to cover this emerging southern threat.

Sharpfield will take back Trove Island and will likely take Dragon Island too. Garvai and Windshare have to train up somewhere Sharpfield might well take one of the islands just outside Shweimouth passage as well. having bases in those four locations will pretty much let ICN steamers control the entire Gulf of Dohlar and the Gulf of Tanshar as well as their coastal cities' waterborne trade. By Fall Dohlar's navy will be toast, Gorath's throat will be bare to Sharpfield's 10'ers and Ahlvarez's army will be bottled up inside Dohlar and waiting the Siddermarkian formations that are building up as King Rahnahld sweats. Of course, the Desnar's Eastern coast will get some tender lovin' care from the new coastal ironclad class.

Now, if the GH decides to be wise and fortifies positions at Mhartynberg, St. Vyrdyn and lake City(less likely) as Brother Lynkyn manufactures his weapons, the CoGA survives the winter. I suspect that Magwair will win that argument with Clyntahn after both Kaitswyrth's and Wyrshym's forces are destroyed. Whether Clyntahn survives the Winter or not is a good question. If he does not survive, the CoGA might well sue for peace and save the Temple Lands from a vengeful Siddermarkian Army that has just witnessed the Concentration Camps and will be up to almost pre-SoS levels but better armed than the GH.

If the GH decides to attack, I just don't see them surviving as any sort of force. They won't have enough breach loaders or rockets to offset the Allies mortars and greater number of rifles. If the St. Kylman's use percussion caps, they will have the same logistics issues as the Allies have with their brass rounds. Try as I might, I don't see the GH surviving anything but defending from seriously fortified positons. They have enough rifles and men to make taking that sort of position very painful for the Allies. Painful enough that waiting until the RSA can completely rebuild and the EoC can fully equip them to ICA standards will be a very attractive proposition.

PeterZ wrote:SNIP

Now, if the GH decides to be wise and fortifies positions at Mhartynberg, St. Vyrdyn and lake City(less likely) as Brother Lynkyn manufactures his weapons, the CoGA survives the winter. I suspect that Magwair will win that argument with Clyntahn after both Kaitswyrth's and Wyrshym's forces are destroyed. Whether Clyntahn survives the Winter or not is a good question. If he does not survive, the CoGA might well sue for peace and save the Temple Lands from a vengeful Siddermarkian Army that has just witnessed the Concentration Camps and will be up to almost pre-SoS levels but better armed than the GH.

I've always noted the similarity of St Vyrdun to Verdun.
Lets hope not so on Safehold!

One authorial reason for laying out the plan carefully beforehand may be that we are not going to see the battle on stage, just hear a victory report afterwards. After all, if we keep getting all the battles blow by blow, we are never going to get through the war in any reasonable number of books, far less finish it up in one or two more. RFC has to pick up the pace again somehow.

Randomiser wrote:One authorial reason for laying out the plan carefully beforehand may be that we are not going to see the battle on stage, just hear a victory report afterwards. After all, if we keep getting all the battles blow by blow, we are never going to get through the war in any reasonable number of books, far less finish it up in one or two more. RFC has to pick up the pace again somehow.

^ This, this is what I thought as well. We get the build up, then a few pages of some of the slaughter, followed by the generals having a toast and lining the banks with inquisitor heads on stakes.

Isilith wrote:

Randomiser wrote:One authorial reason for laying out the plan carefully beforehand may be that we are not going to see the battle on stage, just hear a victory report afterwards. After all, if we keep getting all the battles blow by blow, we are never going to get through the war in any reasonable number of books, far less finish it up in one or two more. RFC has to pick up the pace again somehow.

^ This, this is what I thought as well. We get the build up, then a few pages of some of the slaughter, followed by the generals having a toast and lining the banks with inquisitor heads on stakes.

I am glad to see that I am not the only one wondering about how RFC is going to finish this up in the number of books he has suggested. Personally, I thought he should leave a blocking force to protect Siddermark and sail around, land in Temple Bay and take out Zion.

Keith_w wrote:
I am glad to see that I am not the only one wondering about how RFC is going to finish this up in the number of books he has suggested. Personally, I thought he should leave a blocking force to protect Siddermark and sail around, land in Temple Bay and take out Zion.

I think this book we see the CoGA take it on the chin. The AoG gets smashed, Siddarmark is taken back, and the MH gets slapped hard when they try to push in. That ends with the invasion of the borderlands and the MH digging in, in the Border Lands and Temple Lands... setting up the full conquest of the BL and the invasion of the TL and Zion in the next book.

Oh, I expect Silkiah and Dohlar to be punched out in this book as well. Though I tend to think that Silkiah will join as an ally or as an actual willing admission to the EoC ( most likely to me ) or to Siddarmark.

Dohlar can go a multitude of different ways, that one will be interesting to watch.

SPOILERS, SPOILERS, Although if your reading a snippet response I assume you have read the snippet, so probably not spoilers for you.

OK, while I think the whole group of you are getting excessively trusting with our favorite author, I am willing to go with the flow for the moment. In addition, as I do this, let us assume wildly successful victories over the spring and summer and look at where the ICA “Might” (And notice I stress might as I think the following is wildly optimistic) be by the fall.
Assume first that pulling Duke Eastshare North and a bit of tactical dawdling by Earl Hanth allows Ahlverez and his gaunt troops through. This means there are no more Temple forces behind the alliance lines and given the supply situation with Dohler, probably means that most of those troops are thrown back to Dohler to rest and refit. If Earl Hanth then slams the door behind them by taking Alykberg and the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal (as well as Dairnyth) then effectively that seals off Dohlor, Desnair, and South Harchong for the nonce. I actually assume that is where the missing 50,000 troops are headed. Let them stew down there for now.
Once Kaitswyrth is demolished Earl Hanth then turns west and secures the border down near the Charayn Canal and S. Daivyn River. With no good High Roads or river/canal routes in, the southern and western sides of South March and Cliff Peak are now secure. Meanwhile the Armys of the Daivyn and the Army of the Branths moves north and establishes a line along the N. Daivyn River and Sair-Selyk Canal with strong points at Selyk, Blufftyn and Sairmeet. Burn everything you can reach west of that line and deconsecrate it as much as possible. Turn it into a logistical wasteland that the other side has to cross with his lousier logistics. Destroy and mine all of the High Road into Selyk west of the N. Daivyn River and all of the High Road from St. Vyrdyn into Blufftyn west of the Sair-Selyk Canal and you leave nothing but cross country travel for a counter-attacking great host with no good supply lines. This seals the center.
Finally Baron Green Valley and his forces March west through the summer rolling up Bishop Militant Wyrhsym’s tail forces and ending the season in Lake City in the fall. This gives control of East and West Wing Lakes, the upper end of the Holy Langhorn and with a force of river ironclads that should nail down the north. It also likely that the Holy Langhorn is going to seem like the most supportable route of advance to the Gang of Four, so putting the guy with the best surveillance network at that end seems logical.
Is it doable? Probably not. The Mighty Host will be hitting the field sometime this summer and it is hard to tell what the church will do with it if Baron Green Valley rolls up Wyrhsym hard enough and Clynthon panics. That is the first crisis the Gang of Four is going to know about and if the CoGA sends its forces north in response, the Northern campaign could get nasty. On the other hand, the church will come to regret that hasty move, if it sends the bulk of its forces north given that that will be the most inhospitable and locked down terrain for them to be trapped in when winter comes.

Larry

Couple- three things:
1) From the language in this snipe, it sure sounds like Bahrnabai Wyrhsym isn't going to be able to reinforce or retreat because of his soldiers poor equipment. BGV is going to capture his army.
2) By waiting to get to Kaitswyrth until AFTER he gets his replacements and reinforcements, they seem to be trying to destroy the two AoGod armies with any experience. (Wyrhsym's veterans- Kaitswyrth's veterans -his rearmed pikemen, the best of the two border states armies)-Not defeat them -surround and destroy them.
Recall the scene way back in "Reef" when Black Water realizes he's in trouble, and thinks to himself:
"You wanted to kill as many as possible of Haarahld's trained seamen....Now Cableb's in position to do that to you."
I submit that's what the allies are trying to do in this campaign-take out all the experienced troops, their NCOs, and their officers.
3) And that is why I don't believe they will let the most experienced troops of all- Ahlverez's Dohlarians- escape.