HFQ Official Snippet #28

Nice Plan. Sad the online map isn't quite up to letting me visualize it completely. And I agree with the comments that explaining it to the Archbishop seems like a violation of security. It also seems to me like a very complex plan that is very prone to coming apart if they don't do it right. If anyone attacks early or confronts greater strength then they expect, the other parts start setting in the wind. Three prong pincer attack? Not so easy to coordinate. And then there's that old saw about the enemy and plans. So... Well we shall see I suppose. More reason to buy the book, which is no doubt what our author is thinking. What's more the fact that he has laid it out for us (Using the briefing to the Archbishop as his cats-paw) suggest that things will not go so very well. That is just the kind of thing an evil wizard would do.

Larry

Fubar wrote:So, invading Dohlar this Spring with Eastshare seems to be off the table. Hanth will have to do what he can with what he has, including the river gunboats.

The strategic decision to focus on having your enemy concentrate his men so you can destroy them in one place seems wise given the tech advantage of the ICA. As long as they don't get too cocky about it.

I'm not sure about sitting down and telling the Archbishop. I don't get his need to know about The Plan(tm). A core idea of the Reformist movement is to separate the church and state.

It's one thing to treat a visiting high mucky muck as a valued guest, it's another to sit him down, break out the map, and tell him the Big Picture for the next few months.

Separation of church and state - sort of, anyway - is a core idea of some elements of the Church of Charis. I'm not sure how far Siddarmark is that way. Certainly separating the Temple from the state is a fine notion! But it's a tradition that would be alien to Safehold. Reformist sentiment in Siddarmark may just aim for a responsible clergy that won't interfere in civil conduct. And they're still adjusting to being stabbed in the back and cast out without warning by the Church. Archbishop Cahnyr is the living symbol for these Glacierhearters that it's not the Church that's abandoned them, it's the Group of Four - the man who represents the fact that they can remain loyal to their God and their country, that they made the right choice doing so.

Having an idea what they are going to do will let him speak to those soldiers in a more apt fashion and help prepare them for the battles ahead - and no, that won't mean giving away the campaign in sermons either. But the perspective may put him in a better position to minister to them, and he can get across to the troops the confidence and aggressiveness those officers have.

He's got a role to play that can benefit from being informed. It's not a role that an archbishop would play on Earth now (thank goodness), but this isn't Safehold.

That mostly because All of Them _is_ Welsh.

dwileye13 wrote:So now we have 'shadow sister' being another Sejin and a male one at that. Nimue should be very invisible in that role and creates more Sejins to confuse anyone trying to keep up. They all seem to be Welsh.

I am thinking Koryn Gahrvai tags along with the King Haarahld's. He'll likely bring some Imperial Marines and a few of Windshare's horse buddies. That's another 30,000-50,000 troops attacking Dohlar from the Gulf side raiding along the entire coast. That last contingent from Chisholm will take the Salthar canal and then march along the Gulf coast into Dohlar. Hanth will press along the central Dohlaran canal.

Dohlar isn't going to avoid its own personalized Charisian vice applied to its 'nads.

Fubar wrote:So, invading Dohlar this Spring with Eastshare seems to be off the table. Hanth will have to do what he can with what he has, including the river gunboats.

The strategic decision to focus on having your enemy concentrate his men so you can destroy them in one place seems wise given the tech advantage of the ICA. As long as they don't get too cocky about it.

I'm not sure about sitting down and telling the Archbishop. I don't get his need to know about The Plan(tm). A core idea of the Reformist movement is to separate the church and state.

It's one thing to treat a visiting high mucky muck as a valued guest, it's another to sit him down, break out the map, and tell him the Big Picture for the next few months.

[quote="DrakBibliophile"]Ah, Sword of the South is available now so there won't be more snippets of it.

Amazon shows my order to be shipped Aug. 4?????

Hi PeterZ,

Permit me to disagree, again.

The King Haarahld VII's won't launch until June, assuming almost a month of trials and repairs etc before they dash off may mean late July for all three to leave together, if not waiting for more [thanks to the 'Mohryah Lode', they could afford to start building many more last fall] or others [ie very large steam freighters with spare parts that can keep up etc], and the two plus month's in transit moves their arrival at Claw Island to October at the soonest, so it might be near November before they 'hit' Dohlar, which is far later than what can happen courtesy of controlling the Salthar canal 4-5 month's earlier.

Sharpfield already took a bunch of marines with him [who can also raid Dohlar's coast], and once the Salthar canal is taken, all the marines in southern Siddarmark are far closer in time and space to help raid Dohlar's coast, if that's what the allies want; which given how they've avoided closing on Dohlar's land border when their most vulnerable, implies they don't.

Speculations as to why they don't etc, are now open.

Unfortunately, there is also the fact that Gahrvai and his troops need to be retrained with the ICA's weapons and tactics before they go into combat, or their casualties will be horribly and unacceptably high [especially when they're so avoidable] since they won't have any weapons' superiority to the enemies who will outnumber them considerably.

So I suspect it will take several month's minimum for that training [plus the transport time].

Better yet to integrate them with the new Chisholmians, Zebediahans, Emeraldians, Tarotians, and Charisians now flocking to the colors to create imperial soldiers [NTM citizens with a strong empire PoV] rather than provincial [or state] identified type troops, although I might make an exception for those Gahrvai directly commanded, though adding Chisholmians etc would be a very good idea in my book.

However, given that the ICA dragoons are as far from Windshare's favored cavalry charges as mounted troops can be, I doubt he'll be that much use on Haven until he's retrained, except to get his men killed uselessly until he learns what truly works, which given his limited brains, may take quite a while as well, if not even more time.

Harassing if not invading Dohlar from all points of the compass ASAP would certainly seem worth encouraging, but that doesn't appear to be the allies' plan.

Does Nynian know something about how shaky Dohlar is, or since the alliance is still limited in resources, could the canal, Silkiah and North Watch be the priority southern target until June?

Your prognostications will be appreciated.

L

PeterZ wrote:I am thinking Koryn Gahrvai tags along with the King Haarahld's. He'll likely bring some Imperial Marines and a few of Windshare's horse buddies. That's another 30,000-50,000 troops attacking Dohlar from the Gulf side raiding along the entire coast. That last contingent from Chisholm will take the Salthar canal and then march along the Gulf coast into Dohlar. Hanth will press along the central Dohlaran canal.

Dohlar isn't going to avoid its own personalized Charisian vice applied to its 'nads.

Fubar wrote:So, invading Dohlar this Spring with Eastshare seems to be off the table. Hanth will have to do what he can with what he has, including the river gunboats.

The strategic decision to focus on having your enemy concentrate his men so you can destroy them in one place seems wise given the tech advantage of the ICA. As long as they don't get too cocky about it.

I'm not sure about sitting down and telling the Archbishop. I don't get his need to know about The Plan(tm). A core idea of the Reformist movement is to separate the church and state.

It's one thing to treat a visiting high mucky muck as a valued guest, it's another to sit him down, break out the map, and tell him the Big Picture for the next few months.

Hi Larry,

Very good points, indeed.

The battle may be more costly to the alliance, and Merlin and Nimue may beat themselves for not being able to reveal all they know about things like IED's etc, but I don't doubt they'll take Cahnyr down in a very satisfying way.

Who knows?

Perhaps Clyntahn might briefly imagine himself going in a similar embarrassing cowardly fashion, which can only do some good if it rattles him, and remember the title also refers as to how the temple will see all these defeats.

However given we have Merlin saying early in MTaT that he expected the ICA to be able to easily defeat ~3 times their own number due to their superior weapons and tactics, and that was before the addition of modern breech loading artillery, 4.5" mortars, and M96's, etc; that that margin has only increased as Merlin thought in LaMA in late 896, so I strongly believe each army can more than handle its part of the battle, and having a short or tall seijin show up to warn or coordinate where needed will also overcome your concerns.

Even with the various additions of more flintlocks and BS riflemen, Symkyn alone still has more NTM faster firing rifles, thus when all three armies [including the RSA rifle divisions being sent forward] are in place the allies might have 4 or even 5 times as many riflemen, leaving aside things like mortars, NTM vastly superior artillery [in both numbers, range, shell size, and indirect capability etc]; so it's not a question of will they, but when they destroy Kaitswyrth.

I suspect each army's engineers will do quite a bit about the swamps and other obstacles, whether its several corduroy roads, possibly draining them, or something else that will shock the AoG when the moment is ripe.

Then what?

I suspect EHM will continue north up the Northern Daivyn River to the Selyk canal, where its only ~90 miles to the unnamed river that empties into the lake west of Lake City.

A couple hundred dragons could then easily bring sections of specially designed gunboats from the Selyk to the river where they could be re-assembled into 200-300 ton gunboats to blockade the Langhorne canal behind the probable northern half of the MHoG, which would compel its surrender or other destruction while facing BGV at Five Forks etc.

Meanwhile DE and Symkyn proceed west to deal with the southern MHoG.

Will it go up the Fairmyn river, to replace Kaitswyrth, or march through the already war ravaged lands of West March?

Your thoughts are requested and appreciated.

L

Larry wrote:Nice Plan. Sad the online map isn't quite up to letting me visualize it completely. And I agree with the comments that explaining it to the Archbishop seems like a violation of security. It also seems to me like a very complex plan that is very prone to coming apart if they don't do it right. If anyone attacks early or confronts greater strength then they expect, the other parts start setting in the wind. Three prong pincer attack? Not so easy to coordinate. And then there's that old saw about the enemy and plans. So... Well we shall see I suppose. More reason to buy the book, which is no doubt what our author is thinking. What's more the fact that he has laid it out for us (Using the briefing to the Archbishop as his cats-paw) suggest that things will not go so very well. That is just the kind of thing an evil wizard would do.

Larry

Kakai wrote:Wow wow, what a snippet that is! Thank you, RFC! What else should I say?

For one, it's good to see that Nimue is making herself busy. BTW, "Cysgodol" means "shadowed" and Ganieda is the name of Merlin's sister in Arthurian mythos. Nice touch.

For another, I fully sympathize with Symkyn's frustration Good he's getting ready to rumble soon.

And for the last, it would seem we're about to meet one of Nynian's lovely agents, wouldn't it? I'm certainly looking forward to that!

Ahhh - thanks RFC - excellent, and not at all where I might have guessed this snippet would be located.

Thanks also Kakai, I was hoping that someone would have the meaning of his[her] name

Fun snippet! Thank you

lyonheart wrote:Hi Larry,

Very good points, indeed.

The battle may be more costly to the alliance, and Merlin and Nimue may beat themselves for not being able to reveal all they know about things like IED's etc, but I don't doubt they'll take Cahnyr down in a very satisfying way.

Who knows?

Perhaps Clyntahn might briefly imagine himself going in a similar embarrassing cowardly fashion, which can only do some good if it rattles him, and remember the title also refers as to how the temple will see all these defeats.

However given we have Merlin saying early in MTaT that he expected the ICA to be able to easily defeat ~3 times their own number due to their superior weapons and tactics, and that was before the addition of modern breech loading artillery, 4.5" mortars, and M96's, etc; that that margin has only increased as Merlin thought in LaMA in late 896, so I strongly believe each army can more than handle its part of the battle, and having a short or tall seijin show up to warn or coordinate where needed will also overcome your concerns.

Even with the various additions of more flintlocks and BS riflemen, Symkyn alone still has more NTM faster firing rifles, thus when all three armies [including the RSA rifle divisions being sent forward] are in place the allies might have 4 or even 5 times as many riflemen, leaving aside things like mortars, NTM vastly superior artillery [in both numbers, range, shell size, and indirect capability etc]; so it's not a question of will they, but when they destroy Kaitswyrth.

I suspect each army's engineers will do quite a bit about the swamps and other obstacles, whether its several corduroy roads, possibly draining them, or something else that will shock the AoG when the moment is ripe.

Then what?

I suspect EHM will continue north up the Northern Daivyn River to the Selyk canal, where its only ~90 miles to the unnamed river that empties into the lake west of Lake City.

A couple hundred dragons could then easily bring sections of specially designed gunboats from the Selyk to the river where they could be re-assembled into 200-300 ton gunboats to blockade the Langhorne canal behind the probable northern half of the MHoG, which would compel its surrender or other destruction while facing BGV at Five Forks etc.

Meanwhile DE and Symkyn proceed west to deal with the southern MHoG.

Will it go up the Fairmyn river, to replace Kaitswyrth, or march through the already war ravaged lands of West March?

Your thoughts are requested and appreciated.

L

Larry wrote:Nice Plan. Sad the online map isn't quite up to letting me visualize it completely. And I agree with the comments that explaining it to the Archbishop seems like a violation of security. It also seems to me like a very complex plan that is very prone to coming apart if they don't do it right. If anyone attacks early or confronts greater strength then they expect, the other parts start setting in the wind. Three prong pincer attack? Not so easy to coordinate. And then there's that old saw about the enemy and plans. So... Well we shall see I suppose. More reason to buy the book, which is no doubt what our author is thinking. What's more the fact that he has laid it out for us (Using the briefing to the Archbishop as his cats-paw) suggest that things will not go so very well. That is just the kind of thing an evil wizard would do.

Larry

Oh I'll concede that it all ought to work just as you suggest and a grand battle it should be. The echos of Operation Bagration seem strong to me. The thing is that I just keep having this nagging feeling. You see, there is no book world reason for the General to brief the Archbishop in detail on his plans, and every good reason to keep him in the dark as a matter of operational security. Go ahead and bless the troops your holiness, and a good moral booster it will be, but reveal the plan? Ummm no. So why do it? Could it be the author showing us, his readers, the grand strategy he has planned? Perhaps, but I give DW quite a bit of credit here in that he does like to hide the details until they come together, always has before at least. SO then what is he telegraphing the whole thing to us for? Well maybe, that evil voice in the back of my head suggests, maybe because he intends to get us all ready for the mother of all battles in the Army Group Centre, oh sorry the Army of Glaciarheart, and then at the last moment cause something to go horribly wrong. Maybe like having a half million of the Mighty host show up to the party? Or have hell break loose someplace else? I just don't know what! But anytime David start sharing the good guys battle plan in advance, I start getting a baaaaddddd feeling. Always before it's been the bad guys plans that get shared in detail and it never goes well. Soooo pardon me, but this looks like bait in the trap to me, not for the armies in the book, but for us the readers.

Larry