Maps.

Larry wrote:Better Maps???? GENIUS!!!! Love the idea. Hope this works out. Sometimes it's a little hard to see where the battle lines and current zone of controls for both sides are at. So many folks here seem to feel that Dohlar as an example will soon be isolated, but I just can't see it. Southern Harchong and Desnar certainly, if Silkah can be persuaded to allow it. But Dohlar, Well I have my doubts. Better maps to show how the two sides are deployed would certainly help clarify relative strengths and positions.

Larry

I'll address your doubts about Dohlar soon being isolated, and in my opinion, the first mainland realm to sue for terms. Consider the ICN interdicting the entire coastline of Dohlar, from the Bay of Bess in the north to Salthar Bay in the south. That covers well over half of Dohlar's borders.

The southwestern border runs along the Salthar mountain range. We have no idea how tall or impassible those mountains may be, and they border on Silkiah, which is probably quite tired of having large foreign armed forces march through it, grabbing up all the barges and dragons they can to transport both their men and supplies - and not paying for them. (Perhaps the CoGA pays in church scrip, but we know what that's worth!) Granted, Silkiah is a demilitarized zone, so no Silkiahns will be shooting at Dohlarans, but the only reason to take an army through those mountains is to march it north into Siddarmark - and it would have to pass through the narrow gap near Somyr, which is in allied hands. By now the northernmost locks on the Silk Town - Thesmar canal are in allied hands as well. That means Dohlar won't be shipping its army's supplies by that route, so sending an army in that direction isn't realistic.

Let's take it as a given that the Dohlaran forces in Siddarmark at the end of LaMA are driven back to the Dohlaran border. That's realistic, considering that DE is coming up fast behind Hanth to crush all opposition. (Or so we assume.) That means Dohlar has to build an entirely new army, even if it gets some survivors back, and the only way into Siddarmark that has a canal to supply its forces is the Sheryl - Sheridan canal, and it's likely that there's a sizable allied force sitting inside Dohlaran territory right where the Sairhalik Switch canal intersects it. Since that allied force is being supplied through Thesmar and has canals and rivers leading all the way to Thesmar Bay and ironclads to tow supply barges, the allies' supply train isn't much longer than Dohlar's - based on shipping troops and supplies from southern and western Dohlar. According to the map, there aren't any rivers or canals that connect southern Dohlar to its major canals, so all the troops and supplies manufactured in or around Gorath (which may be most of them) have to travel by high road to Sairhalik, where they can be loaded onto barges just in time to run into that pesky allied force that blocks both canals. (If the allies haven't blown the locks and drained the canals inside Dohlar by then.)

The Dohlaran army can of course easily bypass the blocking force by marching around it, but that leaves better armed and more mobile enemy troops in its rear. Bad idea! Just ask Harless how leaving Hanth behind him turned out. Wait, he's dead!

Ok, so Dohlar decides to drag its supplies and march its troops to extreme northeast Dohlar in hopes to march or barge along the Dairynth - Alyksberg canal. Unfortunately Dairynth will be solidly in allied hands by then, so forget that!

Dohlar, although the most advanced technologically of the CoGA's vassal states, is in the unfortunate position of bordering a very angry Siddarmark and being surrounded on three sides by water, which is about to be ruled by the ICN. Its army is in tatters and may not make it home (we hope!) while its navy, the only remaining fleet of the NoG (despite a few ships that escaped to Desnair and Temple Bay) has the church's most capable admiral in Thirsk. Unfortunately he's about to sail a wooden fleet against armored ships that fire much larger, more explosive, and further ranged shells. (For what extra range is worth on water.)

To make mattes worse the Haarahld VII battleships will soon be headed for the Gulf of Dohlar with (I assume) instructions to take Gorath Bay and eliminate Thirsk and the last vestiges of the NoG. The Haarahlds provide a more stable platform for firing due to their sheer size than any ship in Safehold history, and their huge 8" and 10" guns outrange Thirsk's badly and they feature a new type of explosive that's much more powerful than black powder. One hit may be all it takes to destroy one of Thirsk's galleons.

This won't be a fight, it will be a massacre, and no matter which way or how hard the wind blows, Thirsk's fleet can't escape the Haarahld VIIs. His fleet is doomed, the only questions are "How many of his ships will be blown to kindling before he reaches that conclusion, will he be allowed to surrender, and will he choose surrender to save his crews even though it will mean his own death and the death of his family?" (Thirsk needs some serious help from a friendly seijin or two, and he may just get it...)

And that my friend is why I think Dohlar will soon sue for terms and be the first mainland country to officially be out of the war. The Inquisition will scream and threaten, but they'll find out that sailors and soldiers carry weapons and aren't feeling particularly charitable towards the fanatical churchmen who insist that they fight to the last man and get themselves maimed or killed. (Especially the sailors!)

Taking down Dohlar before they get the new steel into production is crucial for the allies, since that would prevent Dohlar from building artillery almost on par with the ICA's. It would also be a stunning setback for the forces of the CoGA, and cause Desnair and South Harchong to consider suing for terms as well - or at least sitting out the rest of the war, since they can't get troops or supplies to the front with the ICN running wild in the Gulf of Dohlar. There's not much the Temple can do make them cooperate, especially if they decide they're tired of being threatened by the Inquisition...

Meanwhile Siddarmark is arming itself with modern weapons and its war pipes continue to play “The Pikes of Kolstyr.” They won't be taking any prisoners. So surrender to EoC troops as quickly as possible!

McGuiness wrote:Let's take it as a given that the Dohlaran forces in Siddarmark at the end of LaMA are driven back to the Dohlaran border. That's realistic, considering that DE is coming up fast behind Hanth to crush all opposition. (Or so we assume.) SNIP
Ok, so Dohlar decides to drag its supplies and march its troops to extreme northeast Dohlar in hopes to march or barge along the Dairynth - Alyksberg canal. Unfortunately Dairynth will be solidly in allied hands by then, so forget that!

Dohlar, although the most advanced technologically of the CoGA's vassal states, is in the unfortunate position of bordering a very angry Siddarmark and being surrounded on three sides by water, which is about to be ruled by the ICN. SNIP
To make mattes worse the Haarahld VII battleships will soon be headed for the Gulf of Dohlar with (I assume) instructions to take Gorath Bay and eliminate Thirsk and the last vestiges of the NoG.
SNIP
And that my friend is why I think Dohlar will soon sue for terms and be the first mainland country to officially be out of the war.

O.K., I agree with several comments. As to what happens to Dohlar in the land campaign: Yes, they will be driven back to their borders. The fact that the retreat by Ahlverez might get a map indicates that Ahlverez himself might even get out of the trap, BTW. But given the fact that Dohlar only loses half of its army and with that extremely large population base, I doubt if the troops under Hanth (and DE?) would really venture into Dohlar. Similarly, I don't see EoC troops in Dairnyth for more than days, they'd be too exposed there. What will likely happen, though, are naval bombardments (and possibly even landings by EoC marines) for taking out important infrastructure and supplies in Dairnyth. Similarly, the naval campaign will likely cost Dohlar a lot of assets in coastal cities and towns. But that by itself will likely not be sufficient for an immediate collapse of Dohlar.
I think for Dohlar suing for terms there'd have to be a major shake-up. Effectively, Bishop Maik would have to support an alliance by Thirsk (if alive) and Ahlverez, taking out Inquisition agents and other hardliners. That's not impossible but it's not to be taken for granted, either. So, I'm rather sceptic on Dohlar suing for terms, soon.

Hi McGuiness,

I'm sorry I didn't get to this sooner, but I'll try to keep it to what we knew before snippet #28.

First, the most likely mainland nation to sue first for terms will be Silkiah.

Any army it has is still pitiful, if it or Silkiahans aren't part of the IDA, which is still pretty pitiful.

It's closer and more strategically vital in terms of what the alliance needs rather than just vengeance for Gwyllym Manthyr and his crews.

First, given the 50+,000 ICA force that left Port Royal at the end of September, I suspect their target is or should be the Salthar Canal; infiltrating scout-sniper teams from North watch to the two locks apparently bridging the central plateau, possibly by pretending to herding horses away from the raiding ICN marines.

The horses taken are sent to Jahras Island first before transports take them to Siddarmark to replace all those lost to the SoS.

The S-S teams might be hidden by Nynian, at various horse ranches or farms the SSK owns near the locks and semaphore stations.

Once the canal is taken securing Silk Town and the Somyr canal follow, but they aren't as critical.

Given how Silkiah enjoyed the economic benefits of smuggling with Charis, and the economic, political and religious hardships suffered after the SoS, I suspect the liberation will cost the allies very little blood immediately, while becoming truly independent of Desnar and the temple most likely means most Desnar descended TL's leaving ASAP.

Dohlar OTOH, is far better armed, and the ICN, even with a couple of armored sailing ships hasn't penetrated into the Eastern Gulf of Dohlar, past 'the narrows' it patrols because Sharpfield's 40 galleons are so closely matched by Thirsk's ~80.

If the canal is taken quickly enough for the new river ironclads can reach Salthar unhindered, Thirsk's fleet is toast before the KH VII's are launched in June, NTM all the testing and repairs [only a month?] and transit time [2+ month's] taking at least 3+ month's minimum, or October-November, ie 7-8 monthes from now before they reach Dohlar.

Just 4-8 river ironclads could easily destroy Thirsk's whole fleet, including the 'crank galleys'

Once the canal is taken, the marines in southern Siddarmark are very quickly available for the Dohlaran coastal raids so many here seek.

Taking Gorath Bay and City is a different proposition, given all the shoals and the possibility of Zhwaigair having invented sea mines etc.

Then there's the fact that DE and EHM can't invade Dohlar too far without the threat of the southern MHoG sub-army comes down behind them by May or June, forcing them to break off and deal with it, while the Dohlarans held expecting it to save Dohlar.

While the MHoG might outnumber them by only 3-1 at 400,000 men, it could also be double that, ie a much more serious problem.

So even before snippet #28, I didn't think Dohlar was going to be the first to fall, Silkiah being even more vulnerable.

Once the MHoG has been dealt with by this summer, its a whole new ball game; and it may well be a race between the various Border States and Dohlar as to which is first to surrender or seek terms then.

By that time Ahlverez will have had time to make new alliances, including supporting Thirsk in rescuing his family, and overthrowing those who still want to fight despite obviously dragging the kingdom down with them.

The collapse of Dohlar and the Border States, leaving the eastern KotTL naked to the alliance may be where the book ends in the fall, since the fall of Zion and the temple will need another full book to do them justice.

Given the south east is where the major Wylsynn estates are located, some may be more moderate than we might think, and much more amenable to alliance rule than the inquisitorial pogroms since the circle was broken.

Any suggestions for the next book title?

L

McGuiness wrote:

Larry wrote:Better Maps???? GENIUS!!!! Love the idea. Hope this works out. Sometimes it's a little hard to see where the battle lines and current zone of controls for both sides are at. So many folks here seem to feel that Dohlar as an example will soon be isolated, but I just can't see it. Southern Harchong and Desnar certainly, if Silkah can be persuaded to allow it. But Dohlar, Well I have my doubts. Better maps to show how the two sides are deployed would certainly help clarify relative strengths and positions.

Larry

I'll address your doubts about Dohlar soon being isolated, and in my opinion, the first mainland realm to sue for terms. Consider the ICN interdicting the entire coastline of Dohlar, from the Bay of Bess in the north to Salthar Bay in the south. That covers well over half of Dohlar's borders.

The southwestern border runs along the Salthar mountain range. We have no idea how tall or impassible those mountains may be, and they border on Silkiah, which is probably quite tired of having large foreign armed forces march through it, grabbing up all the barges and dragons they can to transport both their men and supplies - and not paying for them. (Perhaps the CoGA pays in church scrip, but we know what that's worth!) Granted, Silkiah is a demilitarized zone, so no Silkiahns will be shooting at Dohlarans, but the only reason to take an army through those mountains is to march it north into Siddarmark - and it would have to pass through the narrow gap near Somyr, which is in allied hands. By now the northernmost locks on the Silk Town - Thesmar canal are in allied hands as well. That means Dohlar won't be shipping its army's supplies by that route, so sending an army in that direction isn't realistic.

Let's take it as a given that the Dohlaran forces in Siddarmark at the end of LaMA are driven back to the Dohlaran border. That's realistic, considering that DE is coming up fast behind Hanth to crush all opposition. (Or so we assume.) That means Dohlar has to build an entirely new army, even if it gets some survivors back, and the only way into Siddarmark that has a canal to supply its forces is the Sheryl - Sheridan canal, and it's likely that there's a sizable allied force sitting inside Dohlaran territory right where the Sairhalik Switch canal intersects it. Since that allied force is being supplied through Thesmar and has canals and rivers leading all the way to Thesmar Bay and ironclads to tow supply barges, the allies' supply train isn't much longer than Dohlar's - based on shipping troops and supplies from southern and western Dohlar. According to the map, there aren't any rivers or canals that connect southern Dohlar to its major canals, so all the troops and supplies manufactured in or around Gorath (which may be most of them) have to travel by high road to Sairhalik, where they can be loaded onto barges just in time to run into that pesky allied force that blocks both canals. (If the allies haven't blown the locks and drained the canals inside Dohlar by then.)

The Dohlaran army can of course easily bypass the blocking force by marching around it, but that leaves better armed and more mobile enemy troops in its rear. Bad idea! Just ask Harless how leaving Hanth behind him turned out. Wait, he's dead!

Ok, so Dohlar decides to drag its supplies and march its troops to extreme northeast Dohlar in hopes to march or barge along the Dairynth - Alyksberg canal. Unfortunately Dairynth will be solidly in allied hands by then, so forget that!

Dohlar, although the most advanced technologically of the CoGA's vassal states, is in the unfortunate position of bordering a very angry Siddarmark and being surrounded on three sides by water, which is about to be ruled by the ICN. Its army is in tatters and may not make it home (we hope!) while its navy, the only remaining fleet of the NoG (despite a few ships that escaped to Desnair and Temple Bay) has the church's most capable admiral in Thirsk. Unfortunately he's about to sail a wooden fleet against armored ships that fire much larger, more explosive, and further ranged shells. (For what extra range is worth on water.)

To make mattes worse the Haarahld VII battleships will soon be headed for the Gulf of Dohlar with (I assume) instructions to take Gorath Bay and eliminate Thirsk and the last vestiges of the NoG. The Haarahlds provide a more stable platform for firing due to their sheer size than any ship in Safehold history, and their huge 8" and 10" guns outrange Thirsk's badly and they feature a new type of explosive that's much more powerful than black powder. One hit may be all it takes to destroy one of Thirsk's galleons.

This won't be a fight, it will be a massacre, and no matter which way or how hard the wind blows, Thirsk's fleet can't escape the Haarahld VIIs. His fleet is doomed, the only questions are "How many of his ships will be blown to kindling before he reaches that conclusion, will he be allowed to surrender, and will he choose surrender to save his crews even though it will mean his own death and the death of his family?" (Thirsk needs some serious help from a friendly seijin or two, and he may just get it...)

And that my friend is why I think Dohlar will soon sue for terms and be the first mainland country to officially be out of the war. The Inquisition will scream and threaten, but they'll find out that sailors and soldiers carry weapons and aren't feeling particularly charitable towards the fanatical churchmen who insist that they fight to the last man and get themselves maimed or killed. (Especially the sailors!)

Taking down Dohlar before they get the new steel into production is crucial for the allies, since that would prevent Dohlar from building artillery almost on par with the ICA's. It would also be a stunning setback for the forces of the CoGA, and cause Desnair and South Harchong to consider suing for terms as well - or at least sitting out the rest of the war, since they can't get troops or supplies to the front with the ICN running wild in the Gulf of Dohlar. There's not much the Temple can do make them cooperate, especially if they decide they're tired of being threatened by the Inquisition...

Meanwhile Siddarmark is arming itself with modern weapons and its war pipes continue to play “The Pikes of Kolstyr.” They won't be taking any prisoners. So surrender to EoC troops as quickly as possible!

Silkiah was a demilitarized zone with its independence guaranteed by the Temple. The demilitarization was suspended by the Temple for the Jihad. We do have textev that they are manufacturing rifles for Temple armies, but no indication that they have an army of their own.

So there is no need for Silkiah to surrender since no military action is directed against it. A better word for what happens when the allies arrive in Silkiah would be liberation. Silkiah will breathe a sigh of relief when the inquisition is cleaned out and the Temple's oppression is eradicated.

Don

runsforcelery wrote:Forgot to mention this earlier. TOR is looking at setting up a small online site (with a link in the next book) where you will be able to find tactical and operational maps we couldn't fit into the page count of the book. I still have to get together with Joe Buckley about updating the Jiltanith map, but at least you should be able to track things like the route of Ahlvarez's retreat and major ship movements.

The 2nd part of this is very welcome. Particularly if the 'Jiltanith Map' is the large online one. It's certainly something that TOR are thinking about online maps, but note that they are 'looking at setting up a small online site' i.e. no commitment and no timescale, and the link is to be in 'the next book' i.e. not HFQ and still at least a year off. 'Oh modified rapture!' (as somebody famous once wrote.)

Hi Don,

"Liberation" is the term I've always preferred when taking the Salthar Canal, and Silkiah incidentally or in passing.

OTOH, the Silk Town-Thesmar canal is far less important to the alliance, and far harder for the allies to take.

So let the Silkians handle it.

L

n7axw wrote:Silkiah was a demilitarized zone with its independence guaranteed by the Temple. The demilitarization was suspended by the Temple for the Jihad. We do have textev that they are manufacturing rifles for Temple armies, but no indication that they have an army of their own.

So there is no need for Silkiah to surrender since no military action is directed against it. A better word for what happens when the allies arrive in Silkiah would be liberation. Silkiah will breathe a sigh of relief when the inquisition is cleaned out and the Temple's oppression is eradicated.

Don

BarryKirk wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:Forgot to mention this earlier. TOR is looking at setting up a small online site (with a link in the next book) where you will be able to find tactical and operational maps we couldn't fit into the page count of the book. I still have to get together with Joe Buckley about updating the Jiltanith map, but at least you should be able to track things like the route of Ahlvarez's retreat and major ship movements.

Thank you thank you thank you...

Highly appreciated... I will "waste" many joyful hours examining those maps.

I'm just about getting ready to print the Jiltanith map in a larger format (perhaps 11X17) so I can mark it up myself in hard copy form. My biggest concern is being able to place all the small towns and villages even reasonably accurately based on the textev.

WeberFan wrote:
I'm just about getting ready to print the Jiltanith map in a larger format (perhaps 11X17) so I can mark it up myself in hard copy form. My biggest concern is being able to place all the small towns and villages even reasonably accurately based on the textev.

I scanned a map of South March out of LAMA and started marking in stuff. It wasn't easy to get straight. I finally reprinted and started over using a pencil so I could erase my messups.

Don

wondeful news RFC - but online is never quite as good as having detailed maps in the hard cover books, just a page or three away from where you are reading. Just saying (and never being satisfied!)

This is awesome. I mostly listen to the books while I'm at work, so sometimes keeping track of where everyone is can be quite difficult. This will make life better. Thank you very much.