The Maya Crisis...

Hutch wrote:
That quote of mine comes from the "Seventy Maxims of Maximally Effective Mercenaries", part of the webcomic "Schlock Mercenary". Other Maxims can be found here: http://schlockmercenary.wikia.com/wiki/ ... ercenaries

There's some good ones there that apply to the Honorverse too, like "That which does not kill you has made a tactical error." or "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a big gun."

Somtaaw wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Sure, if Torch can get others to provide the defense gratis then got as (non)-overkill as they're willing to.

But if Torch did have to provide defense out of it's own military resources then they have to balance wormhole defense against system defense.
(And in that scenario it's nice that you can get quite a lot of wormhole defense for only a modest allocation of your overall system defense assets)

Well these small wormholes are outside the hyper limit (if only barely), so any task force you have stationed nearby the Torch wormhole could pop up into hyper, and then translate back down behind an incoming attack force.

Compared to the Manticore Junction with its multiple termini, Torch has a relatively small Resonance Zone, and such micro-jumps become far more viable. And they do have those ex-StateSec battlecruisers and heavy cruisers now, so those units would be prime to station as a possible wormhole, but microjump reserve.

SWM wrote:

Erls wrote:I think a competent intelligence analyst (and there are certainly a few of them between Torch, the SEM, and Haven) would view the wormhole as:

1- Only 1 known wormhole is impassable. The odds of this being the second is very unlikely. Beyond that, if it is impassable there is not further reason for us to examine it. Thus, we will conclude this view as incorrect and ignore it.

This is faulty logic. The correct analysis is: One wormhole is already known to be impassable. The odds that we have already discovered the only impassable wormhole are negligible, therefore we can be certain that there are more impassable wormholes. Given that there are impassable wormholes, there is some probability X that any given wormhole is impassable. Every time we explore a new wormhole, there X probability that it is impassable, all other things being equal. The possibility that any given newly discovered wormhole is impassable can never be ignored, because we know there are impassable wormholes. We cannot currently predict which wormholes will be impassable. We do not know how common impassable wormholes are. For all we know, we may have been lucky to have found only one impassable wormhole so far.

Conclusion: if a ship does not return from a wormhole exploration, an impassable wormhole must be considered a high probability.

Kytheros wrote:

SWM wrote:Conclusion: if a ship does not return from a wormhole exploration, an impassable wormhole must be considered a high probability.

Y'know ... what's to say that the other "impassable wormhole" doesn't actually lead to somewhere held by the MAlign (or some other hostile faction that wants to keep it secret)?

Kytheros wrote:Y'know ... what's to say that the other "impassable wormhole" doesn't actually lead to somewhere held by the MAlign (or some other hostile faction that wants to keep it secret)?

n7axw wrote:

munroburton wrote:
We readers know the Mandarins are prepared to go after any secessionists other than the Beowulfans with full force. Right now, the Maya Sector Detachment probably doesn't have enough firepower to stop something like the 600 SDs at Tasmania.

I'm not arguing here, but what is the basis for asserting that there are 600 SDs in Tasmania?

"... We're even prepared for the possibility that they may have sufficient of their new missiles available from existing stores to beat off Filareta's attack, at least temporarily. Which is why the redeployment of our active wall is designed to concentrate no fewer than an additional five hundred wallers on Tasmania—this time with complete logistical support and a powerful Frontier Fleet screen—within two and a half months. In three months' time, that total will reach six hundred. Which means we'll be able to dispatch a second wave, substantially larger and even more powerfully supported, against Manticore within a maximum of five months—"

Bill Woods wrote:

"... We're even prepared for the possibility that they may have sufficient of their new missiles available from existing stores to beat off Filareta's attack, at least temporarily. Which is why the redeployment of our active wall is designed to concentrate no fewer than an additional five hundred wallers on Tasmania—this time with complete logistical support and a powerful Frontier Fleet screen—within two and a half months. In three months' time, that total will reach six hundred. Which means we'll be able to dispatch a second wave, substantially larger and even more powerfully supported, against Manticore within a maximum of five months—"

Though I think that concentration has been cancelled.

munroburton wrote:

Bill Woods wrote:

Though I think that concentration has been cancelled.

munroburton wrote:

Annachie wrote:I think that the will activate it but not actually say anything. Just stop reporting to the league or sending them money.

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I concur. They'll stay under the covers as long as possible, carefully shaping their reports as to avoid extra forces being transferred in or current forces being recalled to deal with some crisis elsewhere in the League.

We readers know the Mandarins are prepared to go after any secessionists other than the Beowulfans with full force. Right now, the Maya Sector Detachment probably doesn't have enough firepower to stop something like the 600 SDs at Tasmania.

Therefore Governor Barregos should be waiting until he(and Erewhon) has at least 60 podlayers in commission and Battle Fleet has been whittled down below a thousand active wallers. And he will be if he doesn't want to end up owing the GA more favours than he has to(e.g. if he needs 100 or 200 GA SD(P)s to show up and save Maya from a SLN fleet).

Indeed, Barregos strikes me as being the sort of person who prefers being owed favours. Maya can collect a few of those by contributing to Manticoran rebuilding and offering a flag for "neutral" merchants to trade under(as well as 100% valid citizenship papers) and possibly as an intermediary between the GA and other potential breakaway sectors.

In return? Well, a discount on MWJ transit fees for several centuries would do nicely.

JeffEngel wrote:With the crisis of financing for the League government, protectorate service fees may be cranked up - to the extent the Mandarins can remain hopeful that they can do so without the Verge going up in flames on them. (Being confident it won't may be a higher standard of caution than they can afford.)

They - MacArtney specifically - probably know they can't turn the screws on Maya effectively: Barregos may care too much about his popularity to do so; Maya is a bit restive; it's far too exposed to Manticore to be counted on to remain in the League even if Barregos was the most fanatical League nationalist ever; and most importantly, they can't count on any more OFS fist out there than Roszak's units. They don't have any reason to suppose Roszak is just aching to give the League the finger, but the Maya Sector is sufficiently populous, industrialized, technically savvy, and possessed of a common identity that the size boot they'd need to bring it to heel in a pinch is larger than Roszak is wearing (as far as they know!) and they cannot get him a larger one.

So Maya has to be still treated with kid gloves. On the other hand - Barregos can still up "service fees" if he can show the Sector they are being spent locally, for locally approved purposes. If those purposes also match Mandarin interests - e.g., holding Maya for the League and its transtellars, R&D toward equalizing the military tech situation - everyone is happy, and Barregos has the cover to keep growing the Detachment somewhat openly until it can face off against what the League can afford to throw at it.

It may be hard on the first domino to fall, just because, in isolation, the League can throw so much at it. If the domino can get a little warning and get RMN help through the wormhole network, it's going to encourage the other dominos. And if they all start falling (the domino metaphor starts breaking down), then they're all safer from being picked out individually for stomping. Barregos and Roszak may well have contacts far and away for when other sectors are ready to break off - under similarly-minded OFS governors, under revolutionary movements, under Grand Alliance liberators - and be ready to time it so that they will break openly only just before many others are due to.

The Grand Alliance needs people like Barregos to break off. I figure if he needs some military help to make that stick initially, the balance of favors may still be on his side, or at least neutral: particularly when he may not need much help, or help for long, or help that has to travel far off the wormhole network and remain unavailable in a hurry elsewhere.

Heck, if an SLN counter-strike were gathering in a particular place - like that hypothetical base near Joshua - Barregos would collect favors by creating a situation where the GA could whack a lot of light SLN units in concentration.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Funding:
I think the League can raise funds the same way our government does-with Treasury notes and bonds, until they recover from the shortfall. They can also look into "discretionary funds" of their own, raised from their transtellar "friends". As long as they can convince people they will survive the crisis, they can raise funds without taxes.