The Maya Crisis...

JeffEngel wrote:

JohnRoth wrote:We know, although the good guys don't (yet), that the primary reason for developing Torch was to secure the path through The Twins to the Felix junction (which leads to Darius and fingers Mannerheim as a co-conspirator). The fact that it's a back door into the Haven Sector is nice, but that reason came after.

Right. I'm just saying that, with the revelation of the existence of the Mesan Alignment, Torch has a logic chain now that they didn't before that would give them some reason to suspect the wormhole leads somewhere actively, murderously defended instead of to some natural killer phenomenon. What we know is (in much better detail) something they've got some reason now to take as a serious suspicion, that would have been sheer nuttiness before.

On the other hand... I seem to remember that this wormhole had very unusual physical characteristics indeed, as determined by the Manty exploration ship, which must [surely] be purely by chance.

Therefore it seems to me that the overwhelming tendency would still be to say - "these odd properties = sign of killer wormhole... note for future reference and avoid", like the grav waves in the early days of exploration.

Political oddities they might easily ascribe to the MA, not so sure about this one.

But, of course, there is always the 'better safe than sorry principle' too, even if they dont have a serious suspicion

isaac_newton wrote:On the other hand... I seem to remember that this wormhole had very unusual physical characteristics indeed, as determined by the Manty exploration ship, which must [surely] be purely by chance.

Therefore it seems to me that the overwhelming tendency would still be to say - "these odd properties = sign of killer wormhole... note for future reference and avoid", like the grav waves in the early days of exploration.

Political oddities they might easily ascribe to the MA, not so sure about this one.

But, of course, there is always the 'better safe than sorry principle' too, even if they dont have a serious suspicion

Yes, the unusual properties of the terminus (which the reader can assume to be due to the weirdness of the Twins) gives considerable support to the natural assumption of a killer wormhole (a point which I have strenuously defended in the past ). But JeffEngel is correct that the new information about the existence of the Alignment could cause a sufficiently paranoid security expert to re-evaluate that assumption in the near future.

The Torch wormhole has taken one ship, Harvest Joy, that Torch & Manticore know about. It was a former Lt Cru reconfigured as a wormhole explorer.

The "fact" that wormhole isn't in the information that was captured with the central or other data along with Torch has been noted, wondered about and - apparently - shelved as curious but way low priority at Torch.

At the moment, there is NO reason for Torch or the GA or it's friends to suspect that the Torch Wormhole is anything other than what they so far think it is. That being the wormhole may be the 2nd discovered that kills ships. Of course they also have some hope that the Harvest Joy encountered technical problems with the ship (the sail equipment failed after exiting the other end of the wormhole) and they are -presuming they survied and the ship is capable of hyperspace travel- even now trying to get to somewhere to 1) send word back, 2) get repaired.

There is NO evidence that the wormhole has been used or even attempted by the Mesan company that owned the system nor anybody else. That they would not attempt to have it explored is odd but if all of the data was in the hands of someone at Mesa and Torch was taken before the expidition to study then attempt transit arrived in the Torch system then that would explain the lack of info. Hostile action at the other end of the wormhole just isn't something that springs directly to mind in the normal course of business.

There is/was also NO evidence that anything in the former Verdant Vista system recorded anything in the way of impeller signatures or hyper-footprints which would indicate ships were using the wormhole. There may not have been anything sensitive enough to register any such activity. Remember that Verdant Vista itself has massive amounts of valuable resources, the pharmacology products.

While there MAY now be some instruments observing the wormhole, we don't have any idea if there is a manned ship out there continuing observations.

NOBODY on Torch, in the GA of friends has any idea that the Alignment (or anybody else) has a secret worm-hole network. We know about it as the readers but no one outside the Alignment knows about. At this point (unless something changes) the first time someone at Torch discovers that the wormhole is more than what they know now may be when an Alignment task force comes through and a section is dispatched to deal with Torch. Any frigates in the system would, at best, only be able to run in order to survive and get the word out before the planet and any other ships in the system were attacked.

you are correct that no-one in the GA knows about the twins it but the last attempt to map torch's WH was while Victor and Anton were off world.

now after everything that has happened in torch of freedom and cauldron of ghosts it is not unreasonable for a midly paranoid agent, like victor, anton or even ruth to suggest keeping an eye on it and putting a mini fort surrounded by missile pods far enough away (about 5 million KM perhapes) so as not to be instantly vaped. on the off chance that something nasty comes through.

SWM wrote:Yes, the unusual properties of the terminus (which the reader can assume to be due to the weirdness of the Twins) gives considerable support to the natural assumption of a killer wormhole (a point which I have strenuously defended in the past ). But JeffEngel is correct that the new information about the existence of the Alignment could cause a sufficiently paranoid security expertto re-evaluate that assumption in the near future.

Italics are mine. And just who happens is Minister of War for Torch? And is advised by which two spies and which Royal princess?

While Brigade XO is right and that logically the 'killer' wormhole is not a threat, Jeremy X has now had a chance (per Cauldron of Ghosts) to talk to and get the MAligment information from Anton and Victor directly. Combine that with (1) Except for the one exception, all wormholes have been profitable to their discovering systems and (2) Mesa (or, as he has now learned, the MAlignment) has already tried to genocide the planet once--so what might they have been hoping to hide? and (3) What might be lurking at the other end of that wormhole?

Again, call it paranoid, but Jeremy X hasn't survived this long by being overly trusting....

IMHO, Torch has called in some of it's favors and there is a rotating 4-SD presence out at the Wormhole (between Haven, Manticore/Grayson and Erewhon (which are probably DN's), each on duty about 4 T-months. Units from the Maya sector may also be out that way for 'training' exercises with the GA ships.

Just another day's life for a paranoid...because in Torch's worldview, someone is out to get them.

YMMV.

Hutch wrote:Italics are mine. And just who happens is Minister of War for Torch? And is advised by which two spies and which Royal princess?

While Brigade XO is right and that logically the 'killer' wormhole is not a threat, Jeremy X has now had a chance (per Cauldron of Ghosts) to talk to and get the MAligment information from Anton and Victor directly. Combine that with (1) Except for the one exception, all wormholes have been profitable to their discovering systems and (2) Mesa (or, as he has now learned, the MAlignment) has already tried to genocide the planet once--so what might they have been hoping to hide? and (3) What might be lurking at the other end of that wormhole?

Again, call it paranoid, but Jeremy X hasn't survived this long by being overly trusting....

IMHO, Torch has called in some of it's favors and there is a rotating 4-SD presence out at the Wormhole (between Haven, Manticore/Grayson and Erewhon (which are probably DN's), each on duty about 4 T-months. Units from the Maya sector may also be out that way for 'training' exercises with the GA ships.

Just another day's life for a paranoid...because in Torch's worldview, someone is out to get them.

YMMV.

Even 4 SDs is probably overkill to secure the wormhole. You could make the cost of an opposed transit unacceptable high with just a 60-odd pods and something to provide fire control for them. In the vulnerable terminus lane that's enough to at least mission kill 30+ SDs; way more that it's worth paying to take Torch.

I see the wormhole, or any unknown wormhole, as a risk analysis situation.
Yes, it's unlikely that there's an unknown hostile presence behind that wormhole. OTOH the probable damage if there is a hostile presence is quite high.
Matched against that the cost (upfront and ongoing) of defending against a hostile transit is fairly low - relative to the cost to secure the system.

So even before there was specific knowledge of the MAlign conspiracy it would have made sense to have dropped off some firepower to keep an eye on the terminus.



This cheap defense would really be effective only against a wormhole transit; you'd need a more expensive and robust defense to protect the wormhole from getting pounced through hyper. I'd say that a reasonable defensive level is enough firepower that it's "cheaper" for an attacker to come at you through hyper. Going much beyond that seems largely a waste.

on June 12, 2012 RFC wrote:Nope. If the SEM and its buddies do decide that this wormhole Leads Somewhere Ominous (and, trust me, their analysts are considering that very attentively, given the circumstances), the best thing they could possibly do from the MA's perspective would be to try to take it away from them by coming through the wormhole at them with no idea of where the other end lies in normal-space terms. And please do note that if I haven't told you what Torch is doing about its end of the warp bridge, I also haven't told you anything about what the other side's done since Harvest Joy failed to report back. You think maybe they've been, um, bolstering their defenses, perhaps?

Maybe the above will bring some sanity to this thread? Underline mine.

Brigade XO wrote:The Torch wormhole has taken one ship, Harvest Joy, that Torch & Manticore know about. It was a former Lt Cru reconfigured as a wormhole explorer.

The "fact" that wormhole isn't in the information that was captured with the central or other data along with Torch has been noted, wondered about and - apparently - shelved as curious but way low priority at Torch.

It wasn't followed up on-screen. That doesn't mean that the intelligence types have ignored it. See Weber quote above.

Brigade XO wrote:At the moment, there is NO reason for Torch or the GA or it's friends to suspect that the Torch Wormhole is anything other than what they so far think it is. That being the wormhole may be the 2nd discovered that kills ships. Of course they also have some hope that the Harvest Joy encountered technical problems with the ship (the sail equipment failed after exiting the other end of the wormhole) and they are -presuming they survied and the ship is capable of hyperspace travel- even now trying to get to somewhere to 1) send word back, 2) get repaired.

I've discussed this at length from the viewpoint of a competent intelligence analyst. Unless that analyst has been trained to report what his political overseers want to hear, he isn't going to remove any hypothesis until there is either specific evidence that it's wrong or until the entire situation is resolved.

The fact that it hasn't been discussed in the book doesn't mean that they're ignoring the possibility. See Weber quote above.

Brigade XO wrote:There is NO evidence that the wormhole has been used or even attempted by the Mesan company that owned the system nor anybody else. That they would not attempt to have it explored is odd but if all of the data was in the hands of someone at Mesa and Torch was taken before the expidition to study then attempt transit arrived in the Torch system then that would explain the lack of info. Hostile action at the other end of the wormhole just isn't something that springs directly to mind in the normal course of business.

Under the hypothesis that the wormhole was discovered from the other end, there wouldn't be any evidence locally, would there?

Brigade XO wrote:There is/was also NO evidence that anything in the former Verdant Vista system recorded anything in the way of impeller signatures or hyper-footprints which would indicate ships were using the wormhole. There may not have been anything sensitive enough to register any such activity. Remember that Verdant Vista itself has massive amounts of valuable resources, the pharmacology products.

If Manpower knew about it and wanted it kept a secret, they could rig all the systems to not report any transits.

Brigade XO wrote:While there MAY now be some instruments observing the wormhole, we don't have any idea if there is a manned ship out there continuing observations.

NOBODY on Torch, in the GA of friends has any idea that the Alignment (or anybody else) has a secret worm-hole network. We know about it as the readers but no one outside the Alignment knows about. At this point (unless something changes) the first time someone at Torch discovers that the wormhole is more than what they know now may be when an Alignment task force comes through and a section is dispatched to deal with Torch. Any frigates in the system would, at best, only be able to run in order to survive and get the word out before the planet and any other ships in the system were attacked.

That is, of course, one possibility. IIRC, we do have Word of Weber that the wormhole is being defended, though. We don't know with what.

Jonathan_S wrote:Even 4 SDs is probably overkill to secure the wormhole. You could make the cost of an opposed transit unacceptable high with just a 60-odd pods and something to provide fire control for them. In the vulnerable terminus lane that's enough to at least mission kill 30+ SDs; way more that it's worth paying to take Torch.

There is no "overkill". There is only "open fire" and "I need to reload.

I see the wormhole, or any unknown wormhole, as a risk analysis situation.

Yes, it's unlikely that there's an unknown hostile presence behind that wormhole. OTOH the probable damage if there is a hostile presence is quite high.
Matched against that the cost (upfront and ongoing) of defending against a hostile transit is fairly low - relative to the cost to secure the system.

So even before there was specific knowledge of the MAlign conspiracy it would have made sense to have dropped off some firepower to keep an eye on the terminus.

This cheap defense would really be effective only against a wormhole transit; you'd need a more expensive and robust defense to protect the wormhole from getting pounced through hyper. I'd say that a reasonable defensive level is enough firepower that it's "cheaper" for an attacker to come at you through hyper. Going much beyond that seems largely a waste.

In this case, it's not costing Torch a dime; everybody else is providing the ships (oh, I image a division of their frigates will be out there).

We shall see, eventually. I suspect that the MWW didn't set that up and get the Harvest Joy blown up (and more importantly, spared Drs. Kare and Wix) for nothing.

The Torch Wormhole.
I think we may just have found a use for the 4 former SLN SDs in the best condition with most recent upgrades and magazine stuffed with missles stripped off the rest of the surrendered fleets. Presuming you can get comptent crews for them, of course.

At this point, against a terminus defended by SLN mines/pods and 4 top-of-the-line SDs plus a couple of Keyhole II type RMN ships or a couple of current production RHN BCs with the proper communications and tactical modification to handle SLN weapons, not much is going to get thorough to the Torch side of the wormhole. I would suspect that the orders would have" if there is ANY emissions that could possibly indicate something is comming through the wormhole- target that space and fill it with missiles first and then have someone recover any debris after it has cleared the travel lane"
Hell, you could set SLN ships (with competent crew) in a cone around the incomming travel vectors with weapons hot including Grasers and just shoot and beam the crap out of any particle emissions plus along the calculated trajectory of entry. A couple of orders of vaporized something comming right up

I think a competent intelligence analyst (and there are certainly a few of them between Torch, the SEM, and Haven) would view the wormhole as:

1- Only 1 known wormhole is impassable. The odds of this being the second is very unlikely. Beyond that, if it is impassable there is not further reason for us to examine it. Thus, we will conclude this view as incorrect and ignore it.

2- Assuming then that the wormhole is possible, there are 3 possible outcomes:
A- That Harvest Joy made translation but suffered an equipment failure and it trying to get back via hyper travel. Depending upon where the ending was, this could take a LONG time. But, the longer we go without hearing anything at all the less likely this becomes.
B- That Harvest Joy made translation and then somehow suffered a catastrophic failure. Something that blew up the ship or damaged its Impeller Nodes, restricting it to normal space. If this is the case, it may be decades or centuries until it turns up. Thus, we'll ignore this one because we will either never know (it blew itself up) or it could be centuries until we do know. So, we can just ignore this one.
C- That Harvest Joy made translation and was attacked in whatever system it landed in. Now this one is really interesting, because not many actors would attack a wormhole survey ship when they know how important a wormhole is. I don't even think Admiral Byng would have attacked it: He would have demanded their surrender and their data so he could cash in on 'finding' a new wormhole in Solly space! So, under this thought, wherever it ends is controlled by someone who doesn't want to be found. Pirates, secret naval base, Mesa, etc...

Out of those options, the less likely A becomes the more likely C becomes. And, knowing what the SEM now knows about Mesa it is likely that some of their intelligence guys are focusing on them. Think about it, Mesa controlled a planet hundreds of lightyears away from itself - how did they get there? How did they exercise effective control over such distances? Etc... That could lead a thinking analyst to propose: "What if Verdant Vista was discovered by a MESAN survey ship, and then colonized and run by MANPOWER to discourage others from ever settling/visiting/surveying/etc..." And, supposing that is true, then the terminus must be pretty darn close to Mesa itself or near another system Mesa really doesn't want found...